One system for all markets

[yogi-in-oz]

Yes Snake, Yogi is a bit odd, check this out from the Sydney Morning Herald back on the 8th Jan 2005 !

On Wed 5th Jan 2005 - About day trading, a American professor of charting said :

The magnitudes & decay pattern of the first 12 auto-correlations & the statistical significance of the box -auto-correlations & the statistical significance of the Box-Pierce Q-Statistic suggest the presence of a high-frequency predictable component in stock returns .

Means the past is a guide to the future


Someone called Yogi then said :
Contary to every warning that appears on every share price or unit trust recommendation I back-tested the professor's study on 750 stocksover the past 50 years.
This is the result ~

Now if this is ASF Yogi, he will be able to fill in the test results.

Have Fun
Bob.

Hi Bobby,

..... yes, we have heard of this imposter previously .....

A bit odd THIS yogi may be, but he says,

" EVERYTHING that needs to be said about trading,
can be done so, in plain and simple English, without
ANY such scientific gobbledegook !~!"

have a great day

yogi



=====

 

[theasxgorilla]

Greetings Snake,

EW buggered up my mind-set regarding mental stops ~~ Ouch !

Remmember this story :
11th of Sept 2004 the SPI neared 3866, a certain hedge fund called the major wave top at 3866 having shorted 4500 contracts.
Then the bulls had some fun, the best exit offered was 3920 .
They spent the next 2 weeks getting out at a significant loss.

Then again as you said it seems to work for some !

Cheers Bob.

This is actually my biggest criticism of Elliott Wave. It's alway calling for market tops and bottoms. As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational longer than you can keep counting Elliott Waves.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I am sure there is Snake but jeez i dont have the time to try to find it!

 

[tech/a]

This is actually my biggest criticism of Elliott Wave. It's alway calling for market tops and bottoms. As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational longer than you can keep counting Elliott Waves.

No "G" thats not so.

Elliot is clearly defined. However I understand that one could see that this is the case from a cursory glance. Elliot looks very involved but in fact it is relatively simple. there are a number of ways to forward project both time and price fron information found in price. This frustrates the un initiated who look for a CONCRETE point. Confluence of these points give higher probability.

If a point is surpassed---which is a more common occurence than not being reached.Then a further point is calculated as price PROVES that there is more movement.

Elliot continually PROVES or DISPROVES what is seen in price action.
When a price and or time point is reached then its time to watch very carefully.

Expert exponents of the methodology can return well above the average win rate on trades. Radge currently has a 68% win rate on his Elliot Wave model portfolio.---pretty good in my book.

I'm no expert in Elliot but have a grasp. I'm no longer posting my analysis on the main board as I'm sick of the FLACK.

But I sent this chart to CONSTABLE on the 28/1/07 and on Radges Private board on the same day. Its PNN check price today. Of all the analysis out there this is one of the few worth the 2 or so years to learn!! (Personal opinion of course).

 

[constable]

Ive got to agree with tech, almost uncanny the predictability on this chart using ew Sp today $1.82. And a little green with envy you could pick a peak like that!!

 

[tech/a]

And a little green with envy you could pick a peak like that!!

Had nothing to do with it.
Just implementation of the analysis.
In THIS case it PROVED that the analysis had the correct top.
Had it passed the forcasts then there would have been further
projections made from the rules of the analysis.

Confluence of points however proved to be accurate.
Its a WEEKLY chart

 

[Nick Radge]

EW does have a bad name, as theASXgorilla rightly points out, from a few knuckleheads who try to big note themselves with the large calls. The more calls you make, the chance of getting one right will occur I guess. However, that's not how it is in reality. Those that look to make the big calls are rarely traders, they're analysts and therein lies a large difference. EW is a great took when used correctly and when understood. It really is no different to any other technical analysis type. Its based on patterns and their probabilities.

Below in my signature is a link to a free 2-hour webinar. If you're interested in how to apply EW correctly, then take the time.

Nick

 

[yogi-in-oz]

This is actually my biggest criticism of Elliott Wave. It's alway calling for market tops and bottoms. As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational longer than you can keep counting Elliott Waves.

Hi g'rilla,

..... you are quite correct, the EWavers are always in a state
of utter confusion, because NONE of them can agree where
to START the wave count, leave alone what wave they are in !~!

Aside from that, even Prechter hisself admitted to other
flaws in EW, as well as dissent, between the wave-counters.

Flaws, like talk about confluences around a certain price
level and a conjoining time ... but the fact is, they will
never know about that confluence, until AFTER the event
... so, such analysis is a LAGGING indicator, as it is always
looking BACKWARDS.

Others try to apply the Fibo ratios .618, 1.23, 1.618, 3.23,
and all their multiples and variants to the time axis, as well
as the price action ... again, with limited success.

Sure, they will jag a winning combination, here and there,
but applying any fixed ratio to a dynamic entity, like the
market prices does not make a lot of sense ... but, applying
fixed ratios or cycles to the time axis does make MORE
SENSE, as TIME IS CONSTANT and therefore, somewhat
easier to analyze ..... !~!

-----

Using PNN as an example, let's see how far forward the
EWavers can accurately project turns on the time axis,
using ANY of their fixed ratios ... we'll give you a tip now,
it just will not happen !~!

... meanwhile, here's a more dynamic look, at the same
stock and time axis, using some typical astroanalysis,
by Gann.

PNN time cycles... :

February 2007.

06022007 ... positive news expected here.

22022007 ... minor and intraday rally?

23-26022007 ... minor and positive

---

March 2007.

05032007 ... significant and negative

22032007 ... significant and positive news ...

23-26022007 ... positive news expected.

27032007 ... minor

-----

April 2007.

13-16042007 ... 2 minor and positive cycles here

17042007 ... minor

26042007 ... positive spotlight on PNN ...

30042007 ... positive news expected here

-----

May 2007.

11-14052007 ... 2 minor and positive cycles here

23052007 ... minor

25-28052007 ... minor

-----

June 2007.

01-04062007 ... minor and positive news

11-12062007 ... significant and negati ve ... finances???

27-28062007 ... minor, positive light on PNN

30062007 ... minor and positive news

-----

July 2007.

02-03072007 ... good news, but flat trading here ???

happy days

yogi

 

[tech/a]

Not interested in looking forward 12 mths.

Only when I'm in a trade or looking to possibly enter.
But will be good to look back on Yogi.
Youll jag a few yourself.

At the points you mention what will happen to price.
EG Minor negative news does that mean Flat or a small drop or what?
And vica versa.

 

[Porper]

Hi g'rilla,

..... you are quite correct, the EWavers are always in a state
of utter confusion, because NONE of them can agree where
to START the wave count, leave alone what wave they are in !~!

I wouldn't say E.Wavers are in a state of confusion, true, we can have differing opinions on counts, but does it really matter ?

At the end of the day whether we use the stars or Elliot wave it is merely a personal preference.What it does do is give us a clear insight into the future as to where to tighten stops or look at possible reversal points.This in itself can make us more profitable by giving definitive points where we can say we are wrong with the analysis and therefore will always exit, never being tempted to move stops.

I don't think Elliot Wave is any more successful than any other method personally although I am still a beginner, but I have to say also Yogi that your predictions using astroanalysis is no more successful.

Whatever method we use, if we believe in it we have less chance of being indecisive and skipping from one method to the other.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Not interested in looking forward 12 mths.

Only when I'm in a trade or looking to possibly enter.
But will be good to look back on Yogi.
Youll jag a few yourself.

At the points you mention what will happen to price.
EG Minor negative news does that mean Flat or a small drop or what?
And vica versa.

Ah ... exactly as expected, no forecast and NOT because
they are not interested, otherwise why do they use
EW at all, if it is not an attempt to forecast those
price/time confluences???

Like all other TA tools, astro time cycles are not meant to
be used in isolation ... but, used to complement our
regular TA, we can usually make a judgement on
PRICE, as it approaches our TIME targets .....

..... knowing WHEN to trade and trading in the right
direction, is more important, than price or even what
we trade ...!~!

-----

There was no "minor negative news" mentioned in
the PNN analysis, but for most people a negative
market would mean a fall, a positive market a rise,
flat means little price movement, etc, etc .....

..... minor, major, significant, insignificant are all
simply degrees of market sentiment in the price
action/reaction to news or the natural time cycles.

Aside from price, quantifying and describing expected
market sentiment is not so easy, which is why, it makes
more sense to evaluate BOTH chart axes.

yogi

 

[theasxgorilla]

No "G" thats not so.

Elliot is clearly defined. However I understand that one could see that this is the case from a cursory glance. Elliot looks very involved but in fact it is relatively simple. there are a number of ways to forward project both time and price fron information found in price. This frustrates the un initiated who look for a CONCRETE point. Confluence of these points give higher probability.

If a point is surpassed---which is a more common occurence than not being reached.Then a further point is calculated as price PROVES that there is more movement.

Elliot continually PROVES or DISPROVES what is seen in price action.
When a price and or time point is reached then its time to watch very carefully.

Expert exponents of the methodology can return well above the average win rate on trades. Radge currently has a 68% win rate on his Elliot Wave model portfolio.---pretty good in my book.

I'm no expert in Elliot but have a grasp. I'm no longer posting my analysis on the main board as I'm sick of the FLACK.

But I sent this chart to CONSTABLE on the 28/1/07 and on Radges Private board on the same day. Its PNN check price today. Of all the analysis out there this is one of the few worth the 2 or so years to learn!! (Personal opinion of course).

I didn't intend my comment to come across as "FLACK", and whether it conveyed in print I was only half serious. Thats why I re-appropriated the, "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" quote...it was a flippant remark.

I've read LOTS of Elliott Wave. I have used it and made some brilliant trades with it. Consider the wave count on Western Mining Company pre-Xstrata/BHP takeover, a wave 3-of-3, CFD, long, next-day annoucement, whammo! I cleaned up that day.

As an ex-subscribed to Bob Prechters EWI newsletters I quite frankly got fed up with the non-stop calls for market tops and the re-counting of waves into some extreme variation of what should more often than not be simple 5-3 wave counts. My key criticisms are largely directed at EWI and their attempts at MACRO wave counts the try to map the big picture going all the way back to the Dutch tulip bubble .

Take the DJIA for example...Pretcher has called for it to be at some ridiculously low level like 400 or something, right? Well, yes, his wave count is now invalidated by the fact that the DJIA is at new all-time-highs (I'm sure that they're using the "stable currency benchmark" to explain this, but beyond the scope of this post, you get the point). The problem is that he will sit out of equities for two decades because he was hurrying up to wait to "conquer the crash".

I haven't used more than the basic 5-3 stuff for a couple of years now, so I'm rusty on a lot of the detail beyond that right now. The fact that I see you guys using it has re-kindled my interest, so I'm pleased to be seeing other peoples analysis. Besides, if I can leverage off your wave counts I can be lazy and don't need to do my own

 

[tech/a]

Yogi.

OK.Agree re both axis and also agree using other analysis in conjunction.

So Minor or significant would mean simply that in price movement around that time.

So If I were trading PNN (For example as youve posted many time points).
What would my position be during that time Now till July.

Am I nett Long?

Would I be say taking individual trades at say a long position for
22/03/07 and 26/04/07.

While having all these dates lined up I'm just interested in how they can be used practically to trade.

 

[yonnie]

a system in all markets can be trend-following.

that is not to say that you will be in the markets all the time, only when there is a trend and the fundamentals are in agreement as well

another one is a break-out system, from the year`s high or according to a time table

wonder why nobody mentioned these systems sofar or is trend-following a dirty word