Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

One Good Trade

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Trembling Hand said:
You take this trade? Been running all day! :mad:
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Nope, just standing here like a f****** deer in the headlights...Cumulative Bd/Ash rising all day....duhhhh!

:banghead::banghead::banghead:

I really hate markets that just churn up or down...:bad:

Get that bloody DAX Fueled up and running...:xyxthumbs

CanOz
 
Having not taken trades on Friday i spent the day studying Market Profile and trying to understand how to best incorpoarte this organisation of data into a trading plan.

This weekend i spent some time analysing how price reacts in and out of the value areas and how that is best traded. I now have some trading setups that i can look for after the market determines its initial value area. Market replay is very handy for replaying the weeks price action. So i now have several little setups to test in my playbook.

The first two charts are of the HSI and what we may expect for the coming session. You can see on the chart that there has been a fairly large range in play. The range is where buyers and sellers agreed on value, for the most part. There was a test of higher prices and that was rejected.

I'm off to Shangers on Monday for the day so i won't be able to post charts, curious to see what happens.

Cheers,


CanOz
 

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CanOz said:
This weekend i spent some time analysing how price reacts in and out of the value areas and how that is best traded.
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You're making the same mistake everyone who wants to trade makes. You think Technical Analysis works and therefore are looking to incorporate the best tools. Mostly its a waste of time.

TA is a tool to hang your bias on. Work on increasing your implicit knowledge. Then use TA to frame your trades based on how you think it will play out the next 15- 60 min, day etc.

From wiki,
Tacit knowledge (as opposed to formal or explicit knowledge) is the kind of knowledge that is difficult to transfer to another person by means of writing it down or verbalising it. For example, stating to someone that London is in the United Kingdom is a piece of explicit knowledge that can be written down, transmitted, and understood by a recipient. However, the ability to speak a language, use algebra,[1] or design and use complex equipment requires all sorts of knowledge that is not always known explicitly, even by expert practitioners, and which is difficult to explicitly transfer to users.
While tacit knowledge appears to be simple, it has far reaching consequences and is not widely understood.
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Trembling Hand said:
You're making the same mistake everyone who wants to trade makes. You think Technical Analysis works and therefore are looking to incorporate the best tools. Mostly its a waste of time.

TA is a tool to hang your bias on. Work on increasing your implicit knowledge. Then use TA to frame your trades based on how you think it will play out the next 15- 60 min, day etc.
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you mean.....there's still no secret weapon...... ?
 
tech/a said:
For God's sake keep it down.

The holy grail is that there is NO HOLY GRAIL!
Once you discover the Holy Grail it all falls into place.
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Always talking in riddles, ... never letting on!!

Deeply mysterious!
 
burglar said:
Always talking in riddles, ... never letting on!!

Deeply mysterious!
Click to expand...

There is no need to be Mysterious and I guess it needs to be spelt out.
I must admit that many years ago when I made this amazing discovery I
wasnt entirely sure that I was on to what the "mystics" talked about.

Ill start a new thread when I write up the stuff that needs
to be "let on".

T/H has summed it up well----enough.
But there are specifics.
His Wiki link is pertinent.
 
Well a sweet woman is always better than a sour one , but it ain't the secret . Criptic clue in in TH's smilie
 
TH, I really don't see how the structuring the market, doing some homework, trying to understand what is probable has to do with making a mistake that is typical of other TA Traders. You may be gifted enough to understand the order flow in the DOM and get in with the controlling side more often than not for larger wins than losses, but I need to understand what levels are likely to bring in sellers or buyers. Market or volume profile is a REAL method for doing this. This is my larger time frame.

Now I have not perfected any setups as of yet, but the homework is the first step in understanding where and how the auction process will decide what is a fair or unfair price.

The volume traded at these levels has a shelf life and price reacts to that, as is evident on any chart.

Surely you do some analysis of the larger time after hours? Or do you do the analysis on the run, as you trade?

CanOz

PS, can someone post a 5 minute chart of the HSI from today?
 

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