OMP - Oamps Limited

[56gsa]

Looking at a 6 year weekly chart for OMP it appears to be very cyclical - I have tried to attach chart... basically every year since 2000 around may-july it bottoms, and then peaks between nov-mar

is this typical in the insurance industry?

anyway today it broke thru $3.60... is it set for a rise over the next few months

gains / losses since 2000 are:

Nov-00 102
May-01 83 -19%
Feb-02 170 105%
Jul-02 123 -28%
Jan-03 178 45%
May-03 140 -21%
Nov-03 276 97%
Jul-04 220 -20%
Mar-05 312 42%
Jul-05 238 -24%
Jan-06 360 51%
May-06 305 -15%

average upswings 68%
average downturns -21%

if you apply the 68% to may06 low (if thats what it is) you get a target around $5.00

... for your research

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Well as person that has once been involved in the insurance broking game ,I would only say, come May~July this is an uneasy period for accounts that are attacked on renewals.....you either sharpen the pencil,or start looking for alternative employment. There use to be a saying @ the Lloyd's brokerage house I use to work at , in the mid 1970's>1980's
"1% of F**ck all, is F**ck all! 1% of something is worth all !."
I think this applies very much in Oz.
So any brokerage that manages to keep its accounts in place will survive for another year. Start to loose big accounts ,well bang goes your pencil sharpener...............Nett Premium income!

 

[56gsa]

thnks 3 views... OMP failed to clear 3.60 yesterday - perhaps there's not enough pencil sharpening going on there!

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

thnks 3 views... OMP failed to clear 3.60 yesterday - perhaps there's not enough pencil sharpening going on there!

Sorry I just do not follow this share it's deadwood territory for me ,but its not to say Oamps is a poor or great company to have in your portfolio. I only speak from 14? years in the Insurance market,much of that @ Lime St ~Good Luck!
PS: As I remember Oamp's use to have an underwriting quill ,geeeeee I think it was connected with Heath's box @ Lloyd's Corp.not so sure if it exists now ,anyway not that it helps you ,alas more jargon, then trivia!

 

[56gsa]

What's happening this morning? Only 4 sellers between $4.50 - $5 ... closed at $3.86 last night - must be takeover rumour? One of the big insurers is hungry?

 

[56gsa]

Ahh - announcement now - strange they let it trade a bit in the morning? Wesfarmers takeover @ $4.50 cash, OAMPS board recommend accepting...

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Well 56gsa if you bought a line or two recently -I think your in profit! The WES takeover of OAMPS seems to fit like a glove to me.....synergies ! is that the buzz word of today?

 

[56gsa]

yair 3 views - have been buying OMP since around $2.50 so happy with this... wondering whether to put proceeds back into WES? Held a few of those but sold more than half after they were bouncing around $35-36 for ages... from memory OMP profit of $50m compared to WES $890m doesn't have a huge impact, but perhaps more generally it gives confidence that new CEO can fill Chaney's shoes?

any thoughts on WES?

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Suggest asking this WES qu. in the correct pidgeon hole -try search WES ....then ping 'em yr qu. Happy fishing.