OMC - Omegacorp Limited
- Thread starter dutchie
- Start date
-
- Tags
- omc omegacorp limited
- Joined
- 26 October 2006
- Posts
- 327
- Reactions
- 0
Nizar/Kennas, sorry to ask what may seem an obvious question, but what is the significance of the white candle (as against the red stick of dynamite!).nizar said:nice white candle today
filled the gap as well
Perhaps, I should be looking elsewhere for a tute on charts. I think I saw a reference from you the other day, but can't locate it now.
Still on a learning curve, here!
Gurgler said:
White candle is when the stock closes above the opening price, and red candle is when the stock closes below the opening price.
A white candle is bullish because if a stock closes at the top of its days trading range, theres about a 70-80% chance that it will gap up higher on the following trading days open.
- Joined
- 26 October 2006
- Posts
- 327
- Reactions
- 0
nizar said:
Thanks, Nizar - appreciate it.
- Joined
- 26 October 2006
- Posts
- 327
- Reactions
- 0
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,017
- Reactions
- 10,999
nizar said:Kennas, wasnt the gap between 74 and 76 cents?
And didnt some trades occur today at those prices, so the gap is filled?
Maybe u need to give me a tutorial on gap theory, then, please
You think you are right Nizar, although I'm not sure how many trades occurred in that region which might influence the validacy (is that a word) of the gap closure. I had a lok at the time and I thought it was like just a couple of trades, so I don't know how valid it was.
Anywho, had a closer look at Gap Theory and perhaps what we saw was a Gap - Exhaustion.
Gap - Exhaustion
After an extended or long move, a gap in the direction of the current move is called an exhaustion gap. For an exhaustion gap to be considered valid, prices should reverse soon after the gap and close the gap. An exhaustion gap is confirmed when prices reverse soon afterwards and move above (or "close") the gap. After an extended advance, an exhaustion gap would be confirmed when prices reverse soon afterwards and move below the gap.
What do you reckon?
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
I crunched the numbers on the NPV of Kariba
The fixed assumptions (per their scoping study) were
Resource - JORC 16.5Mt@0.038% = 13.5M lbs U
Cap Ex $90m US = $130m AUD (My max estimate theirs was like $60m US)
Aud/Usd = 0.7 Cash Costs = $25 us/lb
I have assumed they use 100% debt finance which is unrealistic
@ $40 us/lb U spot NPV = $160m = $1
@ $50 us/lb U spot NPV = $350m = $2.30
@ $60 us/lb U spot NPV = $545m = $3.50
@ $70 us/lb U spot NPV = $740m = $4.75
Most likely scenario is they double resource and recieve LT contract price avg of $50 us lb and the debt fund 60% = $80m Equity 40% = $50m
Equity is made up of a placement of 50m shares @ $1 (ie in 6 months time when SP is $1.20+
So under this scenario total issued capital = 200m
JORC = 35Mt @ 0.035% = 25M lbs U (not exactly double)
Cap Ex and Cash costs the same
@ U price $50 us/lb NPV = $765m = $3.80 ish
Alot of promise for OMC
The fixed assumptions (per their scoping study) were
Resource - JORC 16.5Mt@0.038% = 13.5M lbs U
Cap Ex $90m US = $130m AUD (My max estimate theirs was like $60m US)
Aud/Usd = 0.7 Cash Costs = $25 us/lb
I have assumed they use 100% debt finance which is unrealistic
@ $40 us/lb U spot NPV = $160m = $1
@ $50 us/lb U spot NPV = $350m = $2.30
@ $60 us/lb U spot NPV = $545m = $3.50
@ $70 us/lb U spot NPV = $740m = $4.75
Most likely scenario is they double resource and recieve LT contract price avg of $50 us lb and the debt fund 60% = $80m Equity 40% = $50m
Equity is made up of a placement of 50m shares @ $1 (ie in 6 months time when SP is $1.20+
So under this scenario total issued capital = 200m
JORC = 35Mt @ 0.035% = 25M lbs U (not exactly double)
Cap Ex and Cash costs the same
@ U price $50 us/lb NPV = $765m = $3.80 ish
Alot of promise for OMC
YOUNG_TRADER said:
YT heres my figures.
I had to rehash mine this morning, i assumed us$12/lb costs initially, now ill plug in us$25/lb.
Assumptions:
*30million lb resource
*2m/lb/year production for 15 years
*us$25/lb costs increasing 5%pa
*us$3m/pa admin costs (increasing 3%pa inflation)
*us$5m/pa on exploration
*CapEx at A$80million (us$60m as per announcement), to be funded 50:50: debt:equity, 10% interest pa on 35mil loan, and 30million shares at $1.50 to raise the cash of $45mil (so 180million shares outstanding in total)
*uranium spot price of us$80/lb throughout (as average). Remember they are starting in mid-2008.
*aud/usd exchange rate of 0.75
TOTAL NPV = us$413,916,087.08
TOTAL # SHARES = 180,000,000
VALUE PER SHARE = us$2.30
VALUE PER SHARE = au$3.07
- Joined
- 2 August 2006
- Posts
- 105
- Reactions
- 0
Breaking into blue sky and preparing for a crack at the $1 psychological barrier. :bigun2:
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
- Joined
- 20 October 2005
- Posts
- 2,397
- Reactions
- 2
nizar said:
**** crazy stuff, but numbers look though
thx
MS
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,017
- Reactions
- 10,999
Kennas,
Im in at 96c. Break of all time highs.
Volume confirmation is there.
This is only the beginning for OMC.
Bungua results due soon.
It was only a matter of time for this to be rerated.
DYL and AGS market cap of >$300million.
OMC have a JORC resource and scoping studies are completed.
Im in at 96c. Break of all time highs.
Volume confirmation is there.
This is only the beginning for OMC.
Bungua results due soon.
It was only a matter of time for this to be rerated.
DYL and AGS market cap of >$300million.
OMC have a JORC resource and scoping studies are completed.
nizar said:
Last half hour.
The professionals close the market they say.
I wonder if that 200k buyer at 95c will step up?
He probably likes his chances of getting filled by ^$@#^&&@^^&@#
LOL
Anyways, even if tomorrow is a down day, id really like to see it bounce off 90c.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,017
- Reactions
- 10,999
I'm going to wait for a little consolidation here. I might miss out, but just going to play it conservative for now.nizar said:Last half hour.
The professionals close the market they say.
I wonder if that 200k buyer at 95c will step up?
He probably likes his chances of getting filled by ^$@#^&&@^^&@#
LOL
Anyways, even if tomorrow is a down day, id really like to see it bounce off 90c.
