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Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

So_Cynical said:
I think its a bit of a silly exercise to calculate an estimate of 17 to 20c EPS, The nature of this business to to bet on sure things, some of those sure things turn out to be losers and sometimes that can take 3 or 4 years to play out...if your a hard core value investor look away, this stock is not for you.
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Not sure if I agree with you SC I consider myself a value investor and I hold...

John Abernethy of Clime is also a value investor, I just discovered this article.

http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-ex...381186/undervalued-stock-of-the-week-bentham/

You are right about the occasional losers, they just lost the BOQ case.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140213/pdf/42mpntp0gdc620.pdf

Interesting to discover they have insurance on some cases. Shame I wasn't sitting on my computer this morning I would have bought some more in the $1.50's
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

robusta said:
I consider myself a value investor
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What is the definition of a value investor anyway? Labels are so narrow and limiting that they seem futile to me.


I tend to end up with companies in my portfolio that are labelled all different things by different people - but they are all just in there because I think the underlying business was available at a price that justifies the risk according to my assumptions and plan.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

robusta said:
Interesting to discover they have insurance on some cases. Shame I wasn't sitting on my computer this morning I would have bought some more in the $1.50's
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Don't worry it will get there, these business has unreliable earning, you don't know what case you can win and how much you going to get pay ...that in my book is unreliable ....without reliable earning stock can't be value...

Right now the market price it at face values of what is in the book but if they can't deliver what is in the book, it will drift down...

And I am with craft, I mainly try to buy good business but if there are stock that justified risk/reward I will get in ....
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

craft said:
What is the definition of a value investor anyway? Labels are so narrow and limiting that they seem futile to me.


I tend to end up with companies in my portfolio that are labelled all different things by different people - but they are all just in there because I think the underlying business was available at a price that justifies the risk according to my assumptions and plan.
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You are right, probably more accurate to drop the word value and just say investor as opposed to speculator.

ROE said:
Don't worry it will get there, these business has unreliable earning, you don't know what case you can win and how much you going to get pay ...that in my book is unreliable ....without reliable earning stock can't be value...

Right now the market price it at face values of what is in the book but if they can't deliver what is in the book, it will drift down...

And I am with craft, I mainly try to buy good business but if there are stock that justified risk/reward I will get in ....
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I hope you are right ROE and the price does drift down, I think this is a powerful business model with a lot of upside to come as long as they stay disciplined and execute the plan well.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

robusta said:
Not sure if I agree with you SC I consider myself a value investor and I hold...

Interesting to discover they have insurance on some cases. Shame I wasn't sitting on my computer this morning I would have bought some more in the $1.50's
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You may consider yourself a value investor but your certainly not hard core and that is why i used those words...i think pretty much every value investor would of had a look at IMF but the hard core that require hard numbers and certainty would be turned off.

---------

If i had some cash i would of been all over this today at $1.55 and under.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

So_Cynical said:
You may consider yourself a value investor but your certainly not hard core and that is why i used those words...i think pretty much every value investor would of had a look at IMF but the hard core that require hard numbers and certainty would be turned off.

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If i had some cash i would of been all over this today at $1.55 and under.
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You are probably right there SC, it seems most of my portfolio is not traditional "value"

Good luck in your investments and keep on buying the dips. :xyxthumbs
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

Also their first DRP launched today. What do we think?

IMF issued convertibles in late 2010 (most of which ended up being converted), then paid dividends of 15c and 10c in 2011 and 2012, then offered an institutional placement/share purchase plan in 2013, now looks set to pay out 10c again in 2014, but is allowing shareholders to take the dividend as new equity issued at a 3.5% discount.

Why not just retain all earnings and not have to deal with dilution, etc?
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

I'm with you Toppy but us Aussies do love our dividends. My argument is if they can multiply every dollar x3 over a few years they should retain all earnings.

On the flip side the market would value them a whole lot lower if there were no dividends being paid out and there is something to be said for distributing franking credits.

There was a comment made on the latest conference call that they would not go down the convertible notes path again due to the dilution and they may need a larger war chest to fund the international expansion.

I will participate in the DRP at these prices.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

I sold out of IMF today for a trade profit of 43.4% taking advantage of the latest rally and selling at $1.945 ~ The share price has ranged for the last 4 years and i figure that over that time i would of done a lot better trading in and out of IMF than i have done simply holding, the dividends and franking credits have been nice..but comes a time.

Good luck to the holders and looking forward to the next seemingly inevitable SP dip.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

Anyone have some further views? Trades hit $2.19 briefly this morning. Up nearly 30% from its low six months ago.

I understand the full year result is out tomorrow. Looks like NPAT could be nearly double last year, which would immediately pull the P/E down. Probably a final dividend of another 5c. Case book steady at $2 billion, which the company predicts will resolve fairly evenly throughout 2015-2017. International expansion marching on, new external CEO coming on board next year but the old guard sticking around, another independent director added last December, Wivenhoe Dam proceedings commenced. Good foundations for a much bigger business in future. Provided these blokes can maintain their historical win rate (95%+), this could be a very lucrative story.

The above is simply my opinion
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

A break above 2.195 could move it up to 2.564 in short term, according to technical analysis at au stoxline.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

http://www.lawgazette.co.uk/people/...tment-officer-jeremy-marshall/5043701.article

Newly launched third-party funder, Bentham Europe, has announced the appointment of a new chief investment officer to drive its European expansion.

Jeremy Marshall joins Bentham Europe in October from Irwin Mitchell, where he was formerly the London head of litigation and dispute resolution, as the funder celebrates its official launch into the European market.

Bentham Europe is a joint venture involving Bentham IMF Limited. Bentham IMF is Australia’s largest and most successful funder; it was the first third-party funder to publicly list and has funded over 155 cases through to completion with a value of nearly £1bn.

Jeremy has vast experience as a commercial litigator, with particular expertise in UK securities litigation arising out of market misconduct, an area in which Bentham Europe sees significant opportunity. Bentham Europe’s aim is to become Europe’s leading litigation funder by investing in a broad range of high value commercial litigation and international arbitration claims.

Bentham Europe will particularly focus on cartel cases, multi-party actions and securities litigation with a claim value of £5m-plus in single-party cases and more than £30m in multi-party cases. Jeremy will work very closely with Bentham Europe’s managing director, John Walker, who is one of the founders of the third-party funding industry and IMF in Australia.

John Walker said: ‘We are thrilled that Jeremy has joined Bentham Europe at this exciting time. Bentham Europe’s ambition is to become Europe’s leading third-party litigation funder and we have a solid base on which to grow our already-strong team.’

Jeremy Marshall said: ‘I am delighted to be joining a funder with such a strong pedigree and the ability really to transform the market. Bentham IMF is the leading global litigation funder and with the expansion into Europe we will build on Bentham’s internationally recognised reputation.

‘The opportunities are significant and I look forward to developing the European market as we fund major commercial litigation and arbitration claims.’


My blog aiming to track securities Class Actions in Australia
classactionsaustralia.blogspot.com
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

Topped up today at 1.885

I think long term prospects are good, including EU and US expansion, which should se a revaluation within the next year.

Aussie $ fall should also see these returns increase.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

herzy said:
Topped up today at 1.885

I think long term prospects are good, including EU and US expansion, which should se a revaluation within the next year.

Aussie $ fall should also see these returns increase.
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I am tempted, but the continuing negative cash flow worries me, probably just because I cant understand it!

I might ask the question in my thread on cash flow.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

galumay said:
I am tempted, but the continuing negative cash flow worries me, probably just because I cant understand it!

I might ask the question in my thread on cash flow.
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I'm not great with the finance side of things, but I imagine this is a result of their business model (i.e. spending first and getting returns later) - as a result, negative cashflow is actually good, as that's how they generate their income. As the businesses expands, profits are redeployed into new cases, so even if it appears as negative cashflow, that actually means they're expanding their case portfolio each year.

Could be way off on this one though...
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

herzy said:
...

Could be way off on this one though...
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I am no more sure than you! The problem for me is that its 5 years of negative cash flows, I would have thought it should show some + in that time scale!

I have only recently added cash flow to my metrics for assessing value and I am very much a noob and I am fighting off the sense that its too complicated to add to my measure of IV.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

galumay said:
I am no more sure than you! The problem for me is that its 5 years of negative cash flows, I would have thought it should show some + in that time scale!

I have only recently added cash flow to my metrics for assessing value and I am very much a noob and I am fighting off the sense that its too complicated to add to my measure of IV.
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Haha we can just battle our way through it together until McLovin, SKC or RY come along to help us.

The also didn't document revenue for many of those periods, although clearly they've been making profit and have more cash now than 5 years ago... Again, I imagine it's due to the way they structure their accounting - but beyond that I have no idea.

Regarding investment strategy, I'm much more approximate and try to find businesses I like that I think will be making more money in future than they are now - more after emulating ROE than a strict IV calculation methodology. Nothing against it at all, I just haven't had the time to educate myself enough, so gut feel, simple but good businesses (IMF, AAD, JIN back in the day, etc) which I can understand, try to avoid debt, have a good history and a nice 'story' and price and I'm normally happy enough...
 

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