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OBL - Omni Bridgeway

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Re: IMF - IMF (Australia)

JTLP said:
Not too concerned about falling NPAT etc - tis a lumpy earnings business and should be treated as such. However no dividend was a bit disappointing - they have quite a bit of cash so not sure why they didn't part with some?
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Over the last five years IMF have earned a average ROE of a little over 27.8% if they can keep investing in new cases for this return I would be happy for them to cease paying dividends, as it stands distributing the franking credits when available is the next best thing.

Disclosure, established a position last week during the dip at $1.57 for my SMSF.
 
Re: IMF - IMF (Australia)

Quiet here for a few months. Anybody watching these blokes?

Profit down in 2013 with not many big cases finishing. Consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015 are significantly higher such that the forward P/E is about 8. IMF's case portfolio increased from $1.2b to $1.6b this year and approximately half is expected to complete in 2014 and the other half in 2015. Very conservatively run joint with $70m cash (on a market cap of $220m).

Listening to the results call on BRR, management seem like savvy operators who give no BS.

No matter what method I use, my valuations end up well above the current price, but as other posters have noted valuing IMF is difficult because they sway between years of big case wins and years of low activity. I suspect if the Wivenhoe class action is announced and their portfolio jumps past $2b, IMF might be in for a upgrading, and of course a depression if the claim does not proceed.

Recent capital raising was apparently very oversubscribed. Share price barely moved, which is a good look. Money is being used to cancel the convertible notes and for general expansion. The movement into the US appears to be going well, another office on the west coast open, 6 cases funded to date. America is far and away the biggest litigation market in the world, so prospects could be bright.

Overall, an attractive business. Interested to hear from folks more clued-in to this industry than me.

The above is simply my opinion
 
Re: IMF - IMF (Australia)

You basically said it all - I love this company. It's easy to understand, and long-term very lucrative. As you said, good expansion potential, and plenty of cash. I even like it's lumpy earnings - gives good opportunities to top up (like now, in my opinion).
 
Re: IMF - IMF (Australia)

Toppy said:
Recent capital raising was apparently very oversubscribed. Share price barely moved, which is a good look.
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I may have spoken too soon. Price down 11.4% in the last two months.

Anybody have a tip? You would think the Treasury action was good news (given these blokes never fund unless they are dead sure, hence the 3% loss rate from ~150 cases). Also the rumours of regulation would play into their hands (lowering competition by excluding smaller players for lack of capital and erecting a barrier to entry for new players). On the other hand, it seems convertible note holders want to get the shares and have been converting. One expects that, come December, the last of the three scenarios in the placement document would be upon us, i.e. 170m shares on issue and cash of $108m. But is this something that would spark a sell-off?

The above is simply my opinion
 
Re: IMF - IMF (Australia)

Toppy said:
I may have spoken too soon. Price down 11.4% in the last two months.

Anybody have a tip?
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Buy the lows, IMF ranges beautifully, buy the lows - wait - cash in - repeat.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

On December 3rd, 2013, IMF (Australia) Limited changed its name to Bentham IMF Limited.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

piggybank said:
View attachment 55767
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Nice picture and please excuse my ignorance but what does it mean? The white horizontal line on the bottom is resistance? Does this mean the share price will either bounce off it or fall through it? If I had a positive view of this business should I try to make my entry point as close as possible to this bottom line.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF


Hi Robusta,

Sorry but I won't give you advice on what you should do as I don't want to be sued by you should you put your house on it

But here is a link that explains it better than I could. Just google the query have.

http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/support-and-resistance.html



Regards
PB
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

Try and make sense of this legalese...

 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

McLovin said:
Try and make sense of this legalese...
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You have to read the whole judgment to put it into context (which I haven't done). What the judge is saying is that the customer is liable to pay the late payment fee only because they have breached the contract with ANZ bank. So the contract might have said "you pay us x dollars per month", the customer breached this buy not paying. Therefore, ANZ charged them a late payment fee. The judge is also saying the late payment fee may also be derived from ANZ's request that payment be made by a particular date e.g. not paying your bill on the 30th of each month may not necessarily be a breach of contract but since ANZ asks for this, they impose a penalty if you don't make this payment.

The judge goes on to say that to impose a requirement that a customer pay a penalty for not meeting ANZ's request that they pay by a certain date is far too much, so much so to make it unconscionable. It goes well beyond their costs of late payment. The judge is saying it's used by ANZ as a threat.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

robusta said:
I wasn't expecting a dividend but if they have franking credits to distribute...
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Nice a FF 5c dividend, HY Operation profit up 63%, case portfolio up 29%, cash on hand up 22%, impressive.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

So_Cynical said:
Nice a FF 5c dividend, HY Operation profit up 63%, case portfolio up 29%, cash on hand up 22%, impressive.
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Yep the nature of the business as you know mean returns will always be lumpy, however these guys seem to be making the 'lumps' bigger as time passes.
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF

Rising NPAT is positive, no doubt. But the 6.7c EPS might mean IMF has work to do. Minnett and Baillieu estimate 17-20c EPS by 30 June (unclear if adjusted for the raising). So there need to be some wins in the coming months. IMF's estimated value of claims resolving this financial year dropped from 765m (per last June's case summary) to 545m (per last November's) to 440m (per the most recent release).

Thoughts?
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF


Very very difficult to predict the short term earnings for this business, and IMF themselves don't even try. I would be very interested to hear any thoughts on this results presentation.

https://www.brrmedia.com/event/1202...an-director-of-operations-and-diane-jones-coo

A few random points of interest to me;

They are likely to announce a joint venture in the UK within a month. (possibly partly funded by debt)

The bank fees case could expand significantly (currently approx 9% of customers this could expand to 100% with IMF holding the cash for a "reasonable fee"

The banks are likely to appeal the verdict having no time limit, IMF may appeal the part 75% that they lost

Great Southern case is close to a result

The expansion plans mean IMF may have the option to duplicate results into different jurisdictions (Ratings agency case result in Australia now being explored in Europe)
 
Re: IMF - Bentham IMF


I think its a bit of a silly exercise to calculate an estimate of 17 to 20c EPS, The nature of this business to to bet on sure things, some of those sure things turn out to be losers and sometimes that can take 3 or 4 years to play out...if your a hard core value investor look away, this stock is not for you.
 
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