Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:

ASX 200 expected to fall​

The Australian share market looks set for a poor start to the week despite another decent session on Wall Street on Friday.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 36 points or 0.4% lower.

U.S. stocks cruised to more records as they closed their best week in a year on Friday.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to cap its biggest weekly gain since early November 2023 and briefly crossed above the 6,000 level for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 259 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite added 0.1%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 22.44 points to 5,995.54. The Dow gained 259.65 to 43,988.99, and the Nasdaq composite edged up 17.32 to 19,286.78.

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Wall Street rolls higher as bitcoin bursts above $87,000​

By STAN CHOE
Updated 8:19 AM GMT+11, November 12, 2024

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose Monday, led by those seen as benefiting the most from Donald Trump’s reelection as president, but drops for some high-profile Big Tech stocks kept indexes in check.

The S&P 500 edged up by 0.1%, coming off its best week of the year following Trump’s victory and a cut to interest rates by the Federal Reserve to bolster the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 304 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.1%.

Tesla was the strongest force pushing upward on the S&P 500 after rising 9.1%. Its leader, Elon Musk, has become a close ally of Trump’s, and its stock jumped nearly 15% the day after the election and has kept rising.

Several pieces of what’s known as the “Trump trade” also helped drive the market, as investors try to identify which companies will be winners under a second Trump term. JPMorgan Chase rose 1%, and financial stocks again helped lead the market on expectations for stronger economic growth, less regulation from Washington and an increase in mergers and acquisitions.

A White House more friendly to big tie-ups has helped Wall Street speculate about a merger between insurers Cigna Group and Humana, for example. It’s been so feverish that Cigna said Monday it isn’t pursuing a deal with Humana. Cigna’s stock rose 7.3%, and Humana’s sank 2%.

Stocks of companies more focused on the U.S. economy were also rising more than the rest of the market, including a 1.5% rally for the smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 index, because they’re seen as benefiting more from Trump’s America First policies than big multinational companies.

They helped offset a drop of 1.6% for Nvidia, which was the heaviest weight on the market.

Such Big Tech stocks have rocketed higher on excitement about artificial-intelligence technology, and they had been gaining almost regardless of what the economy was doing. Now, though, critics say their prices look too expensive, and investors are finding more interesting buys among companies that could benefit more from Trump’s second term.

A drop for Nvidia packs a particularly heavy punch because its massive value of nearly $3.6 trillion makes it one of the most influential stocks on the S&P 500 and other indexes.

AbbVie, meanwhile, tumbled 12.6% after saying trials investigating its treatment for some adults with schizophrenia failed to show statistically significant improvement compared with a placebo group at week six.

Some of the sharpest swings were in the crypto market, where bitcoin rose above $87,000 for the first time. Trump has embraced cryptocurrencies generally and pledged to make his country the crypto capital of the world. Bitcoin hit a record of $87,491, according to CoinDesk.

Another Trump trade has been a rise in Treasury yields, as traders anticipate potentially higher economic growth, U.S. government debt and inflation because of Trump’s policies. But trading in the bond market was closed Monday in observance of Veterans Day.

Treasury yields been generally climbing since September, in large part because the U.S. economy has remained much more resilient than feared. The hope is that it can continue to stay solid as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates in order to keep the job market humming, now that it’s helped get inflation nearly down to its 2% target.

But Trump’s win has scrambled expectations for coming cuts to rates. Traders have already begun paring forecasts for how many the Fed will deliver next year. While lower rates can boost the economy, they can also give inflation more fuel.

Still, many professional investors warn not to get carried away by all the big swings following Trump’s victory. It takes time to see what campaign promises turn into actual policy, and that can lead to snaps back for the market’s initial knee-jerk reactions.

The U.S. stock market is also broadly looking more expensive, as prices continue to run up faster than corporate profits.

“Valuations are increasingly elevated, and the pace of growth isn’t sustainable,” according to Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “While near-term seasonality will be a strong tailwind for markets, valuations may prove to be a tipping point as we move into 2025.”

All told, the S&P 500 rose 5.81 points Monday to 6,001.35. The Dow gained 304.14 to 44,293.13, and the Nasdaq composite added 11.99 to 19,298.76.

Stock markets abroad have swung following Trump’s election amid worries about increased tariffs and disruptions to global trade. They were mixed Monday, with European indexes rising while South Korea’s and Hong Kong’s sank.

ASX 200 expected to rebound​

The Australian share market is expected to rebound slightly on Tuesday following a relatively positive start to the week in the United States.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 4 points or 0.1% higher.

U.S. stocks rose Monday, led by those seen as benefiting the most from Donald Trump’s reelection as president, but drops for some high-profile Big Tech stocks kept indexes in check.

The S&P 500 edged up by 0.1%, coming off its best week of the year following Trump’s victory and a cut to interest rates by the Federal Reserve to bolster the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 304 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.1%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 5.81 points Monday to 6,001.35. The Dow gained 304.14 to 44,293.13, and the Nasdaq composite added 11.99 to 19,298.76.

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Wall Street drifts lower as the Trump trade cools​

By STAN CHOE
Updated 8:19 AM GMT+11, November 13, 2024

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks drifted lower Tuesday as momentum cooled for the torrid “Trump trade” that swept Wall Street following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% a day after setting its latest all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 382 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.1%.

Stocks had been broadly rising since last week on expectations that Trump’s preference for lower tax rates and other policies may mean faster economic growth, as well as bigger U.S. government debt and higher inflation. Some areas of the market rocketed on particularly high-grade fuel, such as smaller U.S. stocks seen as benefiting the most from Trump’s America First ideas.

They gave back some of their big gains Tuesday, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell a market-leading 1.8%. Even Tesla, which is run by Trump’s ally Elon Musk, sank. It dropped 6.1% for its first loss since before Election Day.
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AP AUDIO: Stock market today: Wall Street drifts as the Trump trade cools

Stocks are cooling off after recent gains. We hear more from AP’s Seth Sutel.

The stock that’s become most entwined with Trump’s popularity, Trump Media & Technology Group, fell 8.8%.

UnitedHealth Group was one of the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 and fell 1.7% after the U.S. Justice Department sued to block its $3.3 billion purchase of Amedisys, saying the deal would hinder access to home health and hospice services. Amedisys sank 1.8%.

A jump in Treasury yields also added pressure on the stock market, as trading of U.S. government bonds resumed following Monday’s Veterans Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.42% from 4.31% late Friday, which is a notable move for the bond market.

Treasury yields have been climbing sharply since September, in large part because the U.S. economy has remained much more resilient than feared. The hope is that it can continue to stay solid as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates in order to keep the job market humming, now that it’s helped get inflation nearly down to its 2% target.

Some of the rise in yields has also been because of Trump. He talks up tariffs and other policies that economists say could drive inflation and the U.S. government’s debt higher. That puts upward pressure on Treasury yields and could hinder the Fed’s plans to cut interest rates. While lower rates can boost the economy, they can also give inflation more fuel.

The next update on inflation will arrive Wednesday, when the U.S. government will give the latest reading on prices that U.S. consumers are paying across the country. Economists expect it to show inflation accelerated to 2.6% in October from 2.4% the month before. But they’re also looking for underlying inflation trends, which ignore prices for groceries and fuel that can zigzag sharply from one month to another, to stay steady at 3.3%.

Helping to limit Wall Street’s losses was Live Nation Entertainment, which joined the lengthening list of U.S. companies delivering stronger profit for the summer than analysts expected. The company behind Ticketmaster said concert fans around the world are spending more to hear artists, and it said trends are already encouraging for 2025 stadium tours for Coldplay and others. Its stock rose 4.7%.

Tyson Foods jumped 6.5% after likewise topping analysts’ forecasts for profit. The producer of beef, chicken and pork also raised its dividend for investors.

Home Depot pulled back 1.3% despite beating analysts’ profit expectations, as it continues to contend with a pullback in spending by customers.

All told, the S&P 500 slipped 17.36 points to 5,983.99. The Dow dropped 382.15 to 43,910.98, and the Nasdaq composite fell 17.36 to 19,281.40

Stocks usually rally following close elections, but this spurt is “clearly faster than prior ones,” according to Parag Thatte and other strategists at Deutsche Bank. It has the S&P 500 on track to deliver a return of more than 20% for a second straight year. That’s happened only three times in the past 100 years, according to Deutsche Bank.

In the crypto market, bitcoin soared to another record before pulling back. Trump has embraced cryptocurrencies generally and pledged to make his country the crypto capital of the world. Bitcoin got as high as $89,995, according to CoinDesk, before dipping back toward $89,500. It started the year below $43,000.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.8% for one of the worst declines. It closed below the 20,000 level for the first time since China announced a stimulus package in September.

ASX 200 expected to sink

The Australian share market looks set to sink on Wednesday following a mixed session in the United States.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 81 points or 1% lower.
U.S. stocks drifted lower Tuesday as momentum cooled for the torrid “Trump trade” that swept Wall Street following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% a day after setting its latest all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 382 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.1%.

All told, the S&P 500 slipped 17.36 points to 5,983.99. The Dow dropped 382.15 to 43,910.98, and the Nasdaq composite fell 17.36 to 19,281.40

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BITCOIN $A135,612 per below

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Wall Street drifts to a mixed finish after an inflation update​

By STAN CHOE
Updated 8:16 AM GMT+11, November 14, 2024

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks drifted to a mixed finish Wednesday after the latest inflation update boosted hopes that more help for the economy will arrive next month through a cut to interest rates.

The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged and edged up by less than 0.1%, coming off its first loss since a big rally erupted after Election Day last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 47 points, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.3%.

The bond market was also mixed after a report said the inflation that U.S. consumers felt last month was exactly as economists expected. It accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%, but an underlying measure called “core inflation” did not accelerate. Such core inflation can be a better predictor of future trends, economists say, and the as-expected number boosted expectations for help coming from the Federal Reserve.

“Bang in-line core inflation leaves the Fed on track to cut rates in December,” according to Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

The Fed began cutting interest rates from their two-decade high in September to offer support for the job market, hoping to keep it humming after bringing inflation nearly all the way down to its target of 2%. It cut again earlier this month, and traders now see an improved probability of roughly 80% for a third cut at its meeting next month, according to data from CME Group.

Those expectations sent the yield for the two-year Treasury down to 4.27% from 4.34% late Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which also takes future economic growth more into account, fell initially after the inflation report. But it pared its loss and eventually rose to 4.45%, up from 4.43% late Tuesday.

The question is what will happen with rates in 2025. Prior forecasts published by the Fed implied it could keep cutting rates through next year. But Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election may have scrambled such plans. Economists say his preferences for lower tax rates, higher tariffs and less regulation could ultimately lead to higher U.S. government debt and inflation, along with faster economic growth.

While lower interest rates can give a boost to the economy and to prices for investments, they can also give inflation more fuel.

Still, Wednesday’s data was reassuring for the market following a run of stronger-than-expected data on the economy, which could have signaled upward pressures on inflation.

“The market may be concerned that we are at an inflection point, with inflation potentially returning to an upward trajectory,” said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “We see inflation modestly higher next year. We don’t think today’s CPI data will do much to the market.”

On Wall Street, Rivian Automotive jumped 13.7% after the electric-vehicle company gave more details about a joint venture it’s entering with Volkswagen Group that they had previously announced. The deal’s total size could be worth up to $5.8 billion, which is more than the $5 billion the companies had previously said.

Spirit Airlines’ stock lost 59.3%. The airline said in a regulatory filing that it’s still trying to work out a deal to renegotiate the repayment of its debt. If it can reach an agreement, the airline said it could wipe out the company’s stockholders, but it could also protect employees and customers.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 1.39 to 5,985.38. The Dow added 47.21 points to 43,958.19, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 50.66 to 19,230.74.

In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% after its wholesale inflation rate reached its highest level since July of last year. South Korea’s Kospi sank 2.6% after Samsung Electronics shares fell to their lowest level in over four years.

Indexes were modestly lower across much of the rest of Asia and Europe.

In the crypto market, bitcoin crossed above $93,000 as cryptocurrencies generally soared, before pulling back below $90,000 in afternoon trading. Trump has embraced cryptocurrencies and pledged to make his country the crypto capital of the world.

Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that’s been a favorite of Tesla’s Elon Musk, also gave up some of its gain from earlier in the day. Trump named Musk as one of the heads of a “Department of Government Efficiency,” or DOGE for short.

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Thursday following a mixed night of trade on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 29 points or 0.2% higher this morning.

U.S. stocks drifted to a mixed finish Wednesday after the latest inflation update boosted hopes that more help for the economy will arrive next month through a cut to interest rates.

The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged and edged up by less than 0.1%, coming off its first loss since a big rally erupted after Election Day last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 47 points, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.3%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 1.39 to 5,985.38. The Dow added 47.21 points to 43,958.19, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 50.66 to 19,230.74.


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