Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

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ASX 200 expected to fall gain​


The Australian share market looks set to open the week lower following a poor finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 30 points or 0.4% lower on Monday.

U.S. stocks mostly fell Friday after fears about war in the Middle East collided in financial markets with hopes for stronger profits at big U.S. companies.

Oil prices leaped, and Treasury yields fell after Israel’s military ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza ahead of a possible ground invasion, according to the United Nations, which warned of potentially “devastating humanitarian consequences.” But several U.S. banking giants at the same time said their profits during the summer were better than feared, which offered hope on Wall Street for an earning reporting season that may deliver the first growth for big companies in a year.

All the push and pull sent the S&P 500 down by 21.83 points, or 0.5%, to 4,327.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 39.15, or 0.1%, to 33,670.29, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 166.98, or 1.2%, to 13,407.23.


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Wall Street rises, and oil and gold fall as some of last week’s moves unwind​

By STAN CHOE

U.S. stocks rallied Monday as some of last week’s moves in financial markets driven by worries about war in the Middle East unwound.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1% for its best day since the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 314 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.2%.

Treasury yields also climbed after falling last week on worries that fighting in Gaza will escalate. Oil prices dropped after a shaky week spurred by worries about disruptions to supplies from Iran because of the war. And the price of gold slipped as last week’s flight toward safer investments waned.

Financial markets have a history of weakening initially after a geopolitical shock, such as a war, only to reassert themselves and eventually move with corporate profits, economic growth and other long-term fundamentals, according to Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.

“Investors should remember that markets are very resilient, have endured countless wars, recessions, and depressions, and have rewarded long-term investors with a well-crafted financial plan,” he said.

A measure of nervousness among stock investors on Wall Street fell for the first time in three days as some investors look toward what’s hoped to be a better reporting season for corporate profits. More than 50 companies in the S&P 500 will tell investors this upcoming week how much they made during the summer, including Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson and Tesla.

Charles Schwab rose 4.7% after it reported stronger profit for the three months through September than analysts expected.

The broad expectation this reporting season for companies in the S&P 500 is for the first overall growth in profit in a year, though by a small margin. Last week, several banks helped kick off the reporting season with better reports than feared.

Even though the reporting season is just getting underway, analysts have seen some encouraging signals.

Companies in the Russell 1000 index that have topped profit expectations are beating the rest of the market by a relatively high rate, according to Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. She, though, also notes that corporate executives are talking about how uncertainty around inflation and interest rates are weighing on spending.

Strategists at Bank of America, meanwhile, expect this reporting season to mark “the start of earnings recovery.” Companies usually report bigger profits than analysts are forecasting, and this quarter may see them beat by more than the usual margin, Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian said in a BofA Global Research report.

A remarkably resilient U.S. economy has continued to power along, despite much higher interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve to undercut inflation. With employers still adding jobs and U.S. households continuing to spend, even if they’ve become more discerning because of high inflation, earnings per share at S&P 500 companies likely rose 0.4% last quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet.

On Wall Street, shares of Lululemon jumped 10.3% in their first trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the apparel company will join its widely tracked S&P 500 index. It’s replacing Activision Blizzard, which was bought by Microsoft.

Pfizer rose 3.6% after it announced a cost-cutting program that it said will save at least $1 billion in 2023. The pharmaceutical giant also said its COVID products will make $9 billion less in revenue over this year than it earlier expected.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 45.85 points to 4,373.63. The Dow gained 314.25 to 33,984.54, and the Nasdaq climbed 160.75 to 13,567.98.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.71% from 4.62% late Friday.

A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude fell $1.03 to settle at $86.66. It has been bouncing up and down since barreling from $70 during the summer to more than $90 late last month.

Brent crude, the international standard, dropped $1.24 to $89.65 per barrel.

Gold fell $7.20 to settle at $1,934.30 per ounce. Last week was its best in nearly seven months as worries climbed ahead of a possible invasion by Israel of northern Gaza.

In stock markets abroad, indexes tumbled across much of Asia but rose modestly in Europe.

ASX 200 expected to rebound


The Australian share market is set to rise on Tuesday following a great start to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 48 points or 0.7% higher.

Wall Street rises, and oil and gold fall as some of last week’s moves unwind

U.S. stocks rallied Monday as some of last week’s moves in financial markets driven by worries about war in the Middle East unwound.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1% for its best day since the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 314 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.2%.


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Wall Street drifts and yields rise as U.S. shoppers show they’re still spending​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish Tuesday following the latest signal that the U.S. economy remains solid, though perhaps too strong for the Federal Reserve’s liking.

The S&P 500 edged down by 0.43, which is well less than 0.1%, to 4,373.20 after flipping between small gains and losses through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13.11 points, or less than 0.1%, to 33,997.65, and the Nasdaq composite fell 34.24, or 0.3%, to 13,533.75.

Financial markets have been shao put the focus back on what usually drives the stock market’s long-term movements: where interest rates, the economy and corporate profits are heading.

A report on Tuesday showed shoppers spent more at U.S. retailers last month than economists expected. That’s a sign of a healthy economy and likely a result of a still-solid job market, which should help to support profits at companies.

But a too-hot economy could also give inflation more fuel and push the Fed to keep interest rates high to suffocate it. Such a move would hurt prices for stocks and other investments.

The Fed is trying to pull off a delicate balancing act where it slows the economy just enough to drive down high inflation but not so much that it causes a painful recession.

Treasury yields in the bond market rose after the release of the report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.83% from 4.69% late Monday.

A sharp jump since the summer in the 10-year yield has weighed on the stock market, as traders increasingly accept the Fed’s forecasts that it will likely keep rates high for a long time. The central bank has already pulled its main interest rate to the highest level since 2001 and is debating whether to increase it one more time.

High rates and yields hurt prices for all kinds of stocks, and they tend to particularly hit companies bid up on expectations for growth far in the future and stocks seen as expensive. That’s often put Big Tech stocks in the spotlight, and a 4.7% drop for Nvidia and 0.9% slip for Apple were the two heaviest weights on the S&P 500.

Nvidia and other chipmakers were under extra pressure after the U.S. government broadened restrictions to stop China from acquiring advanced computer chips and the equipment to manufacture them.

Several big U.S. companies, meanwhile, were rising following their latest earnings reports.

Bank of America was helping to lead the market with a 2.3% gain after it beat Wall Street’s profit forecasts for the third quarter. It benefited from higher interest rates, but CEO Brian Moynihan also warned Americans continue to slow their spending after burning through the savings they had built up during the pandemic.

Bank of New York Mellon rose 3.8% after it also reported stronger profit than expected for the latest quarter.

The broad expectation for companies across the S&P 500 index is that profits returned to growth during the summer for the first time in a year.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts rose 9% after rival Choice Hotels International said it wants to buy the company for $90 per share in cash and stock, valuing it at $7.8 billion.

The two had earlier been talking about a possible deal, Choice CEO Patrick Pacious said, but Wyndham walked away after they were “in a negotiable range on price and consideration.”

Choice shares fell 6.8%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes generally moved modestly in Europe after rising more solidly across Asia.


ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Wednesday despite a poor session on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 20 points or 0.3% higher this morning.

Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish Tuesday following the latest signal that the U.S. economy remains solid, though perhaps too strong for the Federal Reserve’s liking.

The S&P 500 edged down by 0.43, which is well less than 0.1%, to 4,373.20 after flipping between small gains and losses through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13.11 points, or less than 0.1%, to 33,997.65, and the Nasdaq composite fell 34.24, or 0.3%, to 13,533.75.

Financial markets have been shao put the focus back on what usually drives the stock market’s long-term movements: where interest rates, the economy and corporate profits are heading.


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Wall Street drops following profit reports, and oil prices jump on war worries​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street dropped Wednesday after rising Treasury yields tightened the vise further on the stock market and big U.S. companies delivered a mixed set of profit reports. Worries about war in the Middle East also dragged on the market.

The S&P 500 sank 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 332 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.6%.

Crude oil prices jumped sharply overnight following a deadly explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip, which sparked protests across the Middle East. Gold, meanwhile, rose as investors continue to look for safer investments following the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas.

On Wall Street, United Airlines slumped 9.7% after it showed how big a hit to profits it may take because of surging fuel prices and the suspension of flights to Tel Aviv. It gave a profit forecast for the last three months of the year that fell well short of analysts’ expectations.

The forecast overshadowed United’s reporting a bigger profit for the summer than Wall Street had predicted. Other airlines fell in concert, with American Airlines down 4.9% and Delta Air Lines down 4.4%.

Morgan Stanley also tumbled, down 6.8%, even though it likewise reported a bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Investors focused on a weaker-than-expected showing by the company’s wealth management business, analysts said.

On the winning side of Wall Street was Procter & Gamble, the giant behind such brands as Charmin, Febreze and Oral-B. It rose 2.6% after reporting stronger profit than expected for the latest quarter. Its revenue rose after it increased prices for its products.

Nasdaq climbed 4% for one of the market’s bigger gains after reporting stronger profit than expected. It benefited from high-profile stock debuts on its trading exchange, as well as growth for its anti-financial crime business.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 58.60 to 4,314.60. The Dow dropped 332.57 to 33,665.08, and the Nasdaq sank 219.44 to 13,314.30.

The earnings reporting season for the summer is still in its early days, and the broad expectation is for S&P 500 companies to say their overall earnings per share rose last quarter for the first time in a year.

Such growth in profits is essential for the stock market to keep rising, particularly when the other big factor that drives stock prices is pushing the other way.

Treasury yields in the bond market have been on a steady march higher as investors accept a new normal where the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates high to get inflation under control. High rates and yields hurt prices for stocks and other investments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.89% from 4.84% late Tuesday and from less than 3.50% during the spring. It topped 4.90% earlier in the day for the first time since since 2007.

Financial markets “are increasingly concerned that the next move higher could be on the cusp of 5%, and whether the broader economy is equipped to assimilate” the higher costs to raise money, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

Yields have climbed as the U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient, even after the Federal Reserve raised its main interest rate to the highest level since 2001. That strength has a large group of investors believing the Fed may pull off the balancing act of slowing the economy through high rates just enough to smother high inflation but not so much as to cause a painful recession.

Still, investors remain cautious. Global fund managers are holding more cash to protect themselves, up to 5.3% of their total portfolios in October from 4.9%, according to the latest survey by Bank of America.

A big threat for the global economy is what oil prices do to inflation amid the latest war between Hamas and Israel.

In the oil market, a barrel of U.S. crude climbed $1.66 to settle at $88.32 per barrel. It approached $90 early in the morning before paring its gain. Brent crude, the international standard, rose $1.60 to $91.50 after earlier nearing $93 per barrel.

The spark for the jump was a blast at a Gaza hospital that reportedly killed hundreds. Hamas blamed it on an Israeli airstrike, while the Israeli military blamed a rocket misfired by members of another Palestinian militant group. President Joe Biden seemed to suggest it wasn’t Israel.

The fear in financial markets is that the war will draw in big oil-producing nations, such as Iran, and lead to disruptions of supply.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian called on Muslim nations Wednesday to launch an oil embargo on Israel after the explosion at the hospital.

Gold rose $32.60 to settle at $1,968.30 per ounce as investors looked for safer things to own.

In stock markets abroad, indexes slumped in much of Europe after ending mixed in Asia.

China reported Wednesday that its economy grew at a 4.9% annual pace from July through September. That’s down from 6.3% growth in the previous quarter but better than economists feared for the world’s second-largest economy.


ASX 200 expected to sink

The Australian share market looks set to open the day deep in the red on Thursday following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 83 points or 1.1% lower this morning.

Wall Street dropped Wednesday after rising Treasury yields tightened the vise further on the stock market and big U.S. companies delivered a mixed set of profit reports. Worries about war in the Middle East also dragged on the market.

The S&P 500 sank 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 332 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.6%.

Crude oil prices jumped sharply overnight following a deadly explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip, which sparked protests across the Middle East. Gold, meanwhile, rose as investors continue to look for safer investments following the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 58.60 to 4,314.60. The Dow dropped 332.57 to 33,665.08, and the Nasdaq sank 219.44 to 13,314.30.

The earnings reporting season for the summer is still in its early days, and the broad expectation is for S&P 500 companies to say their overall earnings per share rose last quarter for the first time in a year.


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Wall Street falls after 10-year yield climbs to the cusp of 5%​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street fell Thursday as it faces the prospect of a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury for the first time since 2007.

The S&P 500 lost 36.60 points, or 0.8%, to 4,278.00 following a mixed set of profit reports from Tesla and other influential companies The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 250.91, or 0.7%, to 33,414.17, and the Nasdaq composite sank 128.13, or 1%, to 13,186.18.

Stocks felt pressure from the bond market, where rapidly rising yields have been squeezing Wall Street since the summer. The yield on the 10-year Treasury touched 4.99%, up from 4.91% late Wednesday, before paring its gain to 4.98%. As the reference point for much of the financial world, the 10-year yield helps set prices for all kinds of investments and loans.

Yields swung after the Federal Reserve’s chair said again that the central bank will watch how the economy and inflation trend before making upcoming decisions on interest rates. It’s already pulled its main overnight interest rate to the highest level since 2001, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been catching up.

The 10-year yield has been on a swift march from less than 3.50% during the spring as a resilient U.S. economy forces investors to accept a new normal where the Federal Reserve likely keeps its main interest rate high for a long time.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech Thursday that if growth for the U.S. economy appears persistently strong, it could push the Fed to raise rates further. But he also noted the recent rise in longer-term bond yields, such as the 10-year Treasury’s, has been doing some of the Fed’s work for it by slowing the economy without requiring additional hikes.

The Fed is raising rates in hopes they result in less spending across the economy and fuel for inflation. A higher 10-year yield makes mortgages more expensive, knocks down prices for investments and makes it costlier for companies to borrow and grow.

“That’s how monetary policy works, that’s literally how it works,” Powell said about how the Fed’s tightening monetary policy has led to higher yields, which should hopefully take pressure off inflation.

Another report came Thursday to show the U.S. job market remains remarkably solid despite the much-higher rates. Fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than expected, which indicates low levels of layoffs across the country.

While that’s good for an economy that has defied predictions of a recession, it could also add upward pressure on inflation.

A separate report, though, said manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region is weakening by more than economists expected. And a third report said sales of previously occupied homes fell last month, though not by as much as economists expected. Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000.

What happens next with yields and the value of the U.S. dollar will depend on whether the U.S. economy can indeed pull off what’s called a “soft landing,” where growth slows enough to snuff out inflation but not so much that it causes a bad recession. It will also depend on how sticky inflation is following that landing, according to Athanasios Vamvakidis, foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America.

Vamvakidis wrote in a BofA Global Research report that he sees risks of yields and the dollar remaining high after the landing, even if they’re both lower than current levels.

High yields hurt all kinds of stocks, but they hit particularly hard on those bid up on expectations for big growth far in the future and those seen as very expensive. That’s often put the spotlight on Big Tech recently, and some reported a mixed set of profits.

Tesla fell 9.3% after it reported weaker results for the summer than analysts expected. It’s been cutting prices to drive sales, but that also eats into its profitability.

Zions Bancorp. tumbled 9.7% even though it reported stronger profit than expected for the latest quarter. It and other banks smaller in size than the industry’s biggest titans struggled earlier this year after high interest rates helped cause three high-profile bank failures.

On the opposite end was Netflix, which jumped 16.1%. It reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, and it said it would raise prices on some of its membership levels to drive more revenue.

American Airlines rose 0.8% after reporting stronger profit than expected for the busy summer season. It had dropped sharply a day before, when United Airlines warned that high fuel prices and the suspension of flights to Tel Aviv would eat sharply into its profits at the end of the year.

Overall, analysts expect companies across the S&P 500 index to report slight growth in their earnings per share for the summer versus a year earlier. If they do, it would be the first such growth in a year.

Crude oil prices, meanwhile, rose further after erasing losses from the morning. A barrel of U.S. crude for November delivery rose $1.05 to settle at $89.37. Brent crude added 88 cents to $92.38. per barrel. A day earlier, both jumped at least $1.60 on worries that war in the Middle East could lead to disruptions of supplies.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across Europe after slumping more sharply across Asia.


ASX 200 expected to fall again


The Australian share market looks set to end the week on a disappointing note following a poor session on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 45 points or 0.6% lower this morning.

Wall Street fell Thursday as it faces the prospect of a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury for the first time since 2007.

The S&P 500 lost 36.60 points, or 0.8%, to 4,278.00 following a mixed set of profit reports from Tesla and other influential companies The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 250.91, or 0.7%, to 33,414.17, and the Nasdaq composite sank 128.13, or 1%, to 13,186.18.

Stocks felt pressure from the bond market, where rapidly rising yields have been squeezing Wall Street since the summer. The yield on the 10-year Treasury touched 4.99%, up from 4.91% late Wednesday, before paring its gain to 4.98%. As the reference point for much of the financial world, the 10-year yield helps set prices for all kinds of investments and loans.


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Wall Street’s worst week in a month closes out with more losses​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street racked up more losses Friday to close out its worst week in a month.

The S&P 500 fell 1.3% for a fourth straight drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 286 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 1.5%.

The stock market has been struggling under the weight of the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly topped 5% late Thursday for the first time since 2007, according to Tradeweb. High yields make borrowing more expensive for everyone, and they slow the economy while dragging on prices for stocks and other investments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was hanging within a hair of 5% early Friday morning, before later easing back to 4.91%. It’s been generally catching up to the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate, which is already above 5.25% and at its highest level since 2001.

Yields swung a day earlier after investors took comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to indicate the central bank won’t raise its main interest rate at its next meeting Nov. 1. But financial markets are less sure about what the Fed will do after that, and the central bank has said its upcoming moves will depend entirely on how inflation and the job market behave.

The Fed has raised its overnight interest rate at a furious pace in hopes of suffocating high inflation, which has come down from its peak last summer. But a rise in oil prices is threatening to add more upward pressure. Crude prices remained volatile amid worries about war in the Middle East.

A barrel of benchmark U.S. oil fell 62 cents to settle at $88.75. It’s been bouncing around since the latest Hamas-Israel war began, after leaping from $70 to more than $93 during the summer. Brent crude, the international standard, slipped 22 cents to $92.16 per barrel.

Gold’s price climbed as investors herded into investments considered safer ahead of a weekend of uncertainty with the war. It rose $13.90 to settle at $1,994.40 per ounce. Last week, it jumped more than 3% heading into the weekend.

Investors are pulling so many dollars out of riskier investments, such as junk bonds and global stock funds, and holding so much cash to protect themselves that a market-sentiment reading by Bank of America is signaling “extreme bearish.” Such a reading has historically been a signal for contrarians to buy, with stock prices typically improving in the ensuing three months, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

But he also noted it hasn’t been a reliable signal when very big shocks occur, such as the period around Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008 or the Russia-Ukraine war early last year. Maybe a jump for oil prices above $100 or the 10-year Treasury yield shooting above 5% could act as similar very big shocks this time around.

On Wall Street, SolarEdge tumbled 27.3% after the solar technology company slashed its sales and profit expectations for the current quarter. The company blamed order cancellations in Europe due in part to slower-than-expected installation rates.

Other solar stocks also fell, including a 14.7% drop for Enphase Energy.

Regions Financial sank 12.4% after it reported weaker profit than expected for the latest quarter. Focus has been on the banking industry outside its biggest titans. It was under heavy pressure earlier this year after high interest rates helped cause three high-profile collapses of U.S. banks.

Other regional banks were also weaker. Comerica fell 8.5% despite reporting better profit for the summer than expected. Huntington Bancshares sank 3.9% after likewise topping earnings forecasts.

SLB, the giant oilfield services provider, fell 2.9% despite reporting stronger profit than expected for the summer. Its revenue fell just shy of analysts’ expectations.

On the winning side of Wall Street was Knight-Swift Transportation. The trucking company jumped 11.7% after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 53.84 points to 4,224.16. The Dow dropped 286.89 to 33,127.28, and the Nasdaq fell 202.37 to 12,983.81.

In stock markets abroad, indexes slumped across Europe and Asia.


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ASX 200 expected to sink again


The Australian share market looks set to open the week deep in the red again following a poor finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 65 points or 0.9% lower on Monday.

Wall Street racked up more losses Friday to close out its worst week in a month.

The S&P 500 fell 1.3% for a fourth straight drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 286 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 1.5%.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 53.84 points to 4,224.16. The Dow dropped 286.89 to 33,127.28, and the Nasdaq fell 202.37 to 12,983.81.


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Wall Street swings to a mixed finish as yields veer in the bond market​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street swung to a mixed finish Monday, continuing a monthslong run where it’s slavishly followed the cue of the bond market.

The S&P 500 slipped 7.12 points, or 0.2%, to 4,217.04, coming off its worst week in a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 190.87, or 0.6%, to 32,836.41. The Nasdaq composite rose 34.52, or 0.3%, to 13,018.33.

Rapidly rising yields in the bond market have been pressuring stock prices since the summer, and they seemed set to climb further. Early Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly topped 5.02% to touch its highest level since 2007. That helped to torpedo stocks, and the S&P 500 quickly slumped 0.8%.

But the 10-year yield eventually eased back to 4.84%, down from with 4.91% late Friday, as oil prices tumbled to take some pressure off inflation. That relaxed the vise on the stock market.

Easier bond yields tend to most help stocks of companies promising big growth far in the future or those seen as the most expensive. That gave a particular boost to technology and other high-growth stocks.

A 3.8% jump for Nvidia and 0.8% rise for Microsoft were the two strongest forces pushing upward on the S&P 500. They helped limit the market’s losses, when the majority of stocks on Wall Street weakened.

As the centerpiece of the global financial system, Treasury yields help dictate how much investors pay for everything from stocks to corporate bonds to cryptocurrencies. Higher yields also make it more expensive for nearly everyone to borrow money, which puts the brakes on economic growth and adds stress to the entire financial system.

“If bond yields continue to rise relentlessly, something will eventually break,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management. They already helped cause three high-profile failures of U.S. banks earlier this year.

The 10-year Treasury yield has been mostly climbing for a few reasons, and it’s been catching up to the overnight interest rate that the Federal Reserve has hiked furiously since early last year to try to get inflation under control. The Fed has already pulled its main rate above 5.25%, its highest level since 2001, and has pledged to keep rates high until it’s sure inflation is heading back down to its target.

One wild card for inflation has been the price of oil, which has been shaky in recent weeks amid worries about the latest Hamas-Israel war.

A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil tumbled $2.59 to settle at $85.49. Brent crude, the international standard, fell $2.33 to $89.83 per barrel.

U.S. oil had been above $93 last month, and it’s bounced up and down since then amid concerns that fighting in the Gaza Strip could lead to disruptions in supplies from Iran or other big oil-producing countries.

Gold’s price, meanwhile, eased after jumping last week on worries about the war. An ounce slipped $6.60 to $1,987.80 as investors felt less need to herd into investments considered safer.

Energy giant Chevron is putting some of its strength to work by buying rival Hess. Chevron said it’s swallowing up Hess in an all-stock deal valued at $53 billion. Chevron fell 3.7%, and Hess slipped 1.1%.

It’s the second huge deal in the oil-and-gas industry in as many weeks. Exxon Mobil said earlier this month that it’s buying Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock deal valued at $59.5 billion.

Apple rose 0.1% after recovering earlier losses, following reports that Foxconn Technology, its Taiwan-based supplier, was recently subjected to searches by Chinese tax authorities.

While worries about higher Treasury yields and the war in Gaza weigh on markets, support also remains from strength for corporate profits and the overall U.S. economy.

The majority of companies in the S&P 500 have been reporting better profits for the summer than analysts expected, as is usually the case. It’s still early days for the reporting season, but the pace picks up this week when more than 30% of the companies in the S&P 500 will report. They include General Motors, Microsoft and Amazon.

Given the breadth of companies reporting, including some Big Tech stocks that are among Wall Street’s most influential, this week could offer a better picture about how corporate America generally is faring. The earliest reports this earnings season were dominated by banks.

Economic updates this week will include a Friday report on how much U.S. households are spending and what kind of inflation they’re feeling. Strong spending by U.S. consumers has been one of the main reasons the economy has avoided a recession, but it’s also threatening to keep upward pressure on inflation.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe after falling sharply in much of Asia.


ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market is set to fall on Tuesday following a mixed start to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 15 points or 0.2% lower.

Wall Street swung to a mixed finish Monday, continuing a months long run where it’s slavishly followed the cue of the bond market.

The S&P 500 slipped 7.12 points, or 0.2%, to 4,217.04, coming off its worst week in a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 190.87, or 0.6%, to 32,836.41. The Nasdaq composite rose 34.52, or 0.3%, to 13,018.33.

Rapidly rising yields in the bond market have been pressuring stock prices since the summer, and they seemed set to climb further. Early Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly topped 5.02% to touch its highest level since 2007. That helped to torpedo stocks, and the S&P 500 quickly slumped 0.8%


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Wall Street rises after corporate profits top forecasts and oil prices sink more​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street rose to a rare gain Tuesday after Verizon, General Electric and other big companies reported fatter profits for the summer than expected.

The S&P 500 climbed 30.64, or 0.7%, to 4,247.68 to break a five-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 204.97 points, or 0.6%, to 33,141.38, and the Nasdaq composite rose 121.55, or 0.9%, to 13,139.87.

Verizon jumped 9.3% after saying it increased its number of broadband subscribers by 20% and earned more than analysts expected during the summer.

The pace is picking up for companies to report their results for the summer, with more than 30% of companies in the S&P 500 on the schedule for this week. The broad hope is for S&P 500 companies to report the first growth in earnings per share in a year.

Such strength is crucial for the stock market to stabilize. It’s been mostly struggling since the summer under the weight of much higher yields in the bond market.

The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising rapidly from less than 3.50% in the spring and catching up with the Federal Reserve’s main overnight interest rate, which is at its highest level since 2001. The Fed has yanked its federal funds rate above 5.25% in hopes of starving high inflation of its fuel, and it’s indicated plans to hold the rate at a high level for a while.

High yields hurt prices for stocks, cryptocurrencies and other investments. They also slow the economy bluntly and add stress for the entire financial system

But the 10-year Treasury yield was easing Tuesday after hitting its highest level since 2007 a day before. The 10-year yield was at 4.82%, down from 4.85% late Monday. Another drop in oil prices helped to ease the pressure on inflation.

Some investors have recently begun saying yields may not have much higher to go.

“From here, our view is that we are now close to the peak in yields,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management.

She said that if yields were to move much higher at a quick pace, it would risk hurting the Treasury market and shake the financial system’s stability. She said the Federal Reserve could step in to help the market like it did in March, when high interest rates helped cause three high-profile collapses of U.S. banks.

To be sure, even if rates and yields climb no further, they’re still high enough that some investors are worried they’ll eventually drag the economy into a recession if the Fed holds pat.

Until now, the overall economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of much higher interest rates. A solid job market and spending by U.S. households has helped keep the economy chugging along.

Strong data reports recently have driven expectations for the U.S. economy’s growth in the third quarter of the year sharply higher. Economists at Goldman Sachs, for example, have raised their forecast for the quarter’s growth to 4.6% from just 1.5% in mid-August.

A preliminary report on Tuesday said business activity is strengthening in October by more than economists expected. The report from S&P Global indicated demand for manufacturers improved for the first time since April.

While such strength has prevented a recession, it could also be giving inflation fuel and encouraging the Fed to keep rates high for longer. That in turn could lead to more weakness in the future.

Some warning signals are also lying within the strong run of corporate profit reports.

General Motors, for example, said it made more during the summer than analysts had forecast. But it also warned that strikes by its unionized workers are cutting sharply into its pretax earnings. GM stock fell 2.3% after drifting between gains and losses several times.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia.

Stocks in Shanghai added 0.8% after trading near their lowest levels in several years on worries about a slump in the property market and a slowing economy.

In the oil market, prices fell again to take some more pressure off inflation. A barrel of benchmark U.S. oil dropped $1.75 to settle at $83.74. Brent crude, the international standard, fell $1.76, to $88.07 per barrel.

U.S. oil had been above $93 last month, and it’s bounced up and down since then amid concerns that the latest Hamas-Israel war could lead to disruptions in supplies from Iran or other big oil-producing countries.


ASX 200 expected to rise​


The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Wednesday following a strong session on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 24 points or 0.35% higher this morning.

Wall Street rises after corporate profits top forecasts and oil prices sink more

Wall Street rose to a rare gain Tuesday after Verizon, General Electric and other big companies reported fatter profits for the summer than expected.

The S&P 500 climbed 30.64, or 0.7%, to 4,247.68 to break a five-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 204.97 points, or 0.6%, to 33,141.38, and the Nasdaq composite rose 121.55, or 0.9%, to 13,139.87.


Market Watch

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Key Events​

ASX corporate actions occurring today:
  • Trading ex-div: GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.02, Lion Selection Group (LSX) – $0.01
  • Dividends paid: Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.02, Reece (REH) – $0.17
  • Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
  • 11:30 am: Australia Inflation Rate
  • 7:00 pm: Germany IFO Business Climate
  • 1:00 am: Canada Interest Rate Decision
  • 7:35 am: Fed Chair Powell Speech
Oops, wasn't planning on leaving it on this thread, but since it's here, here it stays.
 
Heres a YTD chart for the DJI.
0.02% for the entire year, not a great investment.

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There must have been some good stock rises, cos the following list of the worst performers among big name stocks would not fill one with confidence.
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Mick
 
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Another sharp drop dumps Wall Street back to where it was in May​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street fell sharply Wednesday, dropping back to where it was in May, after rising bond yields tightened their chokehold and some of the market’s most influential companies turned in mixed profit reports.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.4% for its eighth drop in the last 10 days. Some of the heaviest losses hit Big Tech stocks, which dragged the Nasdaq composite to its second-worst drop of the year so far, at 2.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 105 points, or 0.3%.

Microsoft was an outlier and rose 3.1% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the summer than analysts expected. Its movements carry extra weight on the market because it’s the second-largest company by market value.

But Alphabet was tugging the market lower even though the parent company of Google and YouTube also reported stronger profit than expected. Its stock fell 9.5% on worries about a slowdown in growth for its cloud-computing business.

Alphabet is another one of Wall Street’s biggest companies and, like Microsoft, a member of the “Magnificent Seven” group of Big Tech stocks that’s accounted for a disproportionate amount of the S&P 500’s gain this year.

Also putting heavy pressure on the stock market was a rise in Treasury yields. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.94% from 4.82% late Tuesday, which helped to send the large majority of stocks on Wall Street lower.

Rapidly rising yields have been knocking the stock market lower since the summer. The 10-year yield has been catching up to the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate, which is above 5.25% and at its highest level since 2001 as the central bank tries to get inflation under control.

The 10-year yield earlier this week hit its highest level above 5% since 2007, and high yields knock down prices for stocks and other investments while slowing the overall economy and adding pressure to the financial system

High yields tend to most hurt stocks seen as very expensive or those requiring their investors to wait the longest for big growth. That puts the spotlight on internet-related, technology and other high-growth stocks. Besides Alphabet, sharp drops of 5.6% for Amazon, 4.3% for Nvidia and 1.3% for Apple were the heaviest weights on the S&P 500.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 60.91 points to 4,186.77. The Dow dropped 105.45 to 33,035.93, and the Nasdaq sank 318.65 to 12,821.22. The Dow held up better than other indexes because it includes Microsoft but not Alphabet.

Many investors have been hoping the Fed will soon cut rates to allow the system more oxygen. But they’ve had to consistently push out such predictions after repeated reports showing the job market remains remarkably solid. Such strength has kept the economy out of a recession but could also be adding upward pressure on inflation.

Investors banking on rate cuts may be depending on a playbook that’s become obsolete, said Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. He said that may be pushing them to not take seriously enough the possibility of a global recession, which would be the result of rates left high for too long.

For decades, the Fed has come to the rescue of markets and the economy whenever trouble arose by quickly cutting interest rates. That’s because high inflation was not a problem. But now, with the trend of globalization retreating and other long-term swings pushing upward on inflation, VanCronkhite said the Fed has to worry about more than just propping up the job market

“I think the market is still believing the U.S. Fed are a series of magicians with crystal balls that will see the problem beforehand and solve it before it becomes too serious,” he said. “I believe the Fed is under a new paradigm and will be slower to react.”

“Their focus is going to be on inflation first, economy second, in my mind. As a result, I don’t think they’ll respond quickly. In fact, I think the Fed wants a recession.”

High rates and yields have already inflicted pain on the housing market, where mortgage rates have jumped to their highest levels since 2000. The Fed’s hope is to restrain the economy enough to cool inflation, but not so much that it creates a deep recession.

A report on Wednesday said sales of new homes were stronger in September than economists expected, potentially complicating things for the Fed. Sales of new homes have been mostly recovering since hitting a bottom in the summer of 2022, with a dearth of previously occupied homes for sale pushing buyers toward new construction.

In the oil market, crude prices climbed to recover some of their sharp losses from earlier in the week. A barrel of U.S. crude rose $1.65 to settle at $85.39. Brent crude, the international standard, jumped $2.06 to $90.13 per barrel.

U.S. oil had been above $93 last month, and it’s bounced up and down since then amid concerns that the latest Israel-Hamas war could lead to disruptions in supplies from Iran or other big oil-producing countries.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were modestly higher across most of Europe and Asia.


ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set to open the day in the red on Thursday following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 18 points or 0.2% lower this morning.

Another sharp drop dumps Wall Street back to where it was in May

Wall Street fell sharply Wednesday, dropping back to where it was in May, after rising bond yields tightened their chokehold and some of the market’s most influential companies turned in mixed profit reports.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.4% for its eighth drop in the last 10 days. Some of the heaviest losses hit Big Tech stocks, which dragged the Nasdaq composite to its second-worst drop of the year so far, at 2.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 105 points, or 0.3%.


Market Watch
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More drops for Big Tech pull Wall Street nearly 10% below its summertime high​

By STAN CHOE

Wall Street tumbled Thursday, dropping nearly 10% below its high mark for the year, after big-name companies warned an uncertain global economy may hurt their profits.

The S&P 500 fell 1.2% for its ninth drop in 11 days and touched its lowest level in five months. Another steep fall for Big Tech dragged on the market, sending the Nasdaq composite to a market-leading loss of 1.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 251 points, or 0.8%.

Meta Platforms was among the market’s heaviest weights and tumbled 3.7% even though the parent company of Facebook and Instagram reported fatter profit and revenue for the summer than analysts expected.

Investors may have been spooked by the company’s warning that it’s seen some initial softness in advertising due to the latest Israel-Hamas war, and analysts said the company gave a wider range than it has in the past for its forecast of upcoming revenue.

Meta is one of the “Magnificent Seven” Big Tech stocks that were responsible for a huge chunk of the S&P 500’s gains through the first seven months of the year. Because they’re so immense in size, their stock movements carry extra weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes. And their tremendous rallies earlier this year mean big expectations have built for them, raising the bar for their profit reports.

Two of the Magnificent Seven offered reports earlier this week that Wall Street saw as mixed, with Alphabet tumbling 9.5% and Microsoft rising 3.1% on Wednesday.

Thursday’s further drops for Big Tech came even though yields eased in the bond market, which has been at the center of sharp moves for financial markets around the world for months.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.84% from 4.96% late Wednesday. Early in the morning, it had neared its highest level since 2007. Yields swung after reports showed the U.S. economy continues to storm ahead despite much higher interest rates that have already lashed the stock market.

A preliminary estimate suggested the U.S. economy’s growth accelerated during the summer by more than economists expected. A separate report indicated the U.S. job market remains remarkably solid, with relatively few layoffs across the country. And the European Central Bank opted to refrain from hiking interest rates for the first time in more than a year.

Stocks have been under pressure since the summer as Treasury yields have spurted higher. They have been catching up with the main interest rate controlled by the Federal Reserve, which is at its highest level since 2001 as the central bank tries to get high inflation under control.

Higher bond yields make investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks and other investments. They also slow the economy bluntly, raising the risk of a recession in the future, and increase the pressure across the financial system.

Thursday’s reports show the U.S. economy is clearly not in a recession. But Wall Street is more concerned about what will happen rather than what’s in the past, and the worry is that a solid economy could put continued upward pressure on inflation. That in turn could push the Fed to keep rates high for a long time to defeat high inflation. And that could mean eventual weakness for the economy and corporate profits.

“The Fed’s job isn’t done, and it does not appear that higher interest rates are doing the job for them,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

In the near term, traders overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting, which ends Wednesday. That would mark a second straight meeting where the Fed did not hike its main interest rate, which it has pulled above 5.25% from nearly zero early last year.

“Higher and hold, yes,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Higher and hiking, no.”

Even better-than-expected profits from big U.S. companies haven’t been enough to arrest the market’s recent slide.

The majority of companies in the S&P 500 have been topping analysts’ profit expectations for the summer, and the hope is that they’ll report their first overall growth in a year. But several big-name companies were falling Thursday following disappointing results or forecasts for upcoming trends.

UPS sank 5.9% after cutting its forecasts for some full-year results because of uncertainty about where the global economy is heading. Investors see UPS as a window into the global economy’s strength because it ships so many products around the world.

Align Technology, which makes Invisalign systems that straighten teeth, also said an uncertain global economy may persuade potential customers to hold off. Its stock tumbled 24.9% after it reported weaker profit and revenue for the latest quarter.

On the winning side of Wall Street was IBM, which rose 4.9% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 49.54 to 4,137.23. The Dow dropped 251.63 to 32,784.30, and the Nasdaq sank 225.62 to 12,595.61.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell modestly in Europe after falling more sharply in Japan and South Korea. Stocks edged higher in Shanghai.


ASX 200 expected to edge marginally lower​


The Australian share market looks set to end the week on marginally lower today after another poor session on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 3 points lower this morning.

Wall Street tumbled Thursday, dropping nearly 10% below its high mark for the year, after big-name companies warned an uncertain global economy may hurt their profits.

The S&P 500 fell 1.2% for its ninth drop in 11 days and touched its lowest level in five months. Another steep fall for Big Tech dragged on the market, sending the Nasdaq composite to a market-leading loss of 1.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 251 points, or 0.8%.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 49.54 to 4,137.23. The Dow dropped 251.63 to 32,784.30, and the Nasdaq sank 225.62 to 12,595.61.


Market Watch

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Wall Street falls, bringing the S&P 500 index 10% below its July peak​

By STAN CHOE and DAMIAN J. TROISE

— Stocks stumbled on Wall Street Friday, bringing the S&P 500 10% below the peak it reached in July and putting the benchmark index into what’s called a “correction.”

The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, or 19.86 points, to close at 4,117.37. That marks its 10th loss in the last 12 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 366.71 points, or 1.1%, to 32,417.59.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks slipped 20.07 points, or 1.2% to 1,636.94, its lowest level in about four years.

The Nasdaq was the bright spot in the market, gaining ground on the strength of several big technology and communications companies that reported solid earnings. The index rose 47.41 points, or 0.4%, to 12,643.01.

Amazon rose 6.8% following its profit report. Both its profit and revenue for the summer were better than expected. As one of the most massive companies on Wall Street, Amazon’s stock movements carry huge weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes.

It’s one of the “Magnificent Seven” Big Tech stocks that was responsible for much of the stock market’s climb early this year. But those huge gains also meant big expectations built for them, and Alphabet, Meta and Tesla all fell sharply following their latest reports.

Intel, which is outside the Magnificent Seven, was also helping to support the market. It rose 9.3% after reporting much stronger profit for the summer than analysts expected.

Those gains weren’t enough to counter declines elsewhere from other technology companies and energy companies. Investors also dealt with mixed readings on the economy.

Stocks have struggled recently for a couple of reasons: Several Big Tech stocks tanked following profit reports for the summer, and rising Treasury yields in the bond market tightened their vise on Wall Street.

“What you have is an oversold market, by any metric,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. “That typically leads to a significant rally, but the question is, does that bring you to the end of the year.”

Big Tech stocks have faced an additional challenge from the big rise in Treasury yields since the summer. When bonds are paying more in interest, prices for most investments fall because investors suddenly have more alternatives for their dollars. Among the hardest hit are stocks seen as the most expensive or requiring their investors to wait the longest for big growth. That tends to hurt stocks in Big Tech, biotechnology and other high-growth areas in particular.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady at 4.84%.

Several big companies slipped after reporting disappointing earnings for their latest quarters. Exxon Mobil fell 1.9% after reporting a bigger drop in profits than Wall Street expected. Chevron fell 6.7% after also falling short of analysts’ profit forecasts.

Ford stumbled 12.2% after reporting disappointing earnings and revenue a day after it reached a tentative contract agreement with the United Auto Workers union.

The market has been unforgiving when it comes to the latest round of corporate earnings, though they have mostly been solid, said Krosby. Analysts polled by FactSet expect earnings growth of about 2.4% overall for companies in the S&P 500.

“This market has been looking at every single component of what companies are saying,” Krosby said. “You could see this is a market that is very careful about rewarding companies.”

A report showed that the measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve remained high last month, but within economists’ expectations. It also showed spending by U.S. consumers was stronger than expected, even though growth in their incomes fell short of forecasts.

A separate report said that U.S. consumers’ expectations for inflation in the coming year are rising, up to 4.2% from 3.2% last month. That’s particularly concerning for the Federal Reserve, which fears such expectations could lead to a vicious cycle that worsens high inflation.

Added all together, the data didn’t change Wall Street’s expectations much for the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

The Fed has yanked its main interest rate above 5.25% to its highest level since 2001 in hopes of slowing the economy and hurting investment prices enough to starve high inflation of its fuel. But it’s been on hold recently, keeping rates steady at its last meeting in September.

The overwhelming expectation is still for the Fed to hold rates steady again next week, and Wall Street is beginning to prepare for rates to stay high for a long time.

The 10-year yield has been catching up the Fed’s main overnight interest rate as the economy remains remarkably solid and as worries rise about how much debt the U.S. government is taking on to pay for its spending.

The swift rise, up from less than 3.50% in the spring to more than 5% earlier this week, has sent prices tumbling for older bonds already trading in the market.

In the biggest picture, the “bond bubble has popped” following years of ultra-low yields, according to Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America.

But he also warned that markets can remain stuck in trading ranges for a long time following bubble bursts before making major recoveries, such as Japanese stocks after 1989 or internet stocks after 2000. He said in a BofA Global Research report that bond yields may not have a long-term run back lower until Washington, D.C. gets “serious about fiscal discipline.”

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mostly lower in Europe after rising more solidly in much of Asia.

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ASX 200 expected to sink


The Australian share market looks set to open the week deep in the red following a relatively poor finish on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 67 points or 1% lower on Monday.

Wall Street falls, bringing the S&P 500 index 10% below its July peak

Stocks stumbled on Wall Street Friday, bringing the S&P 500 10% below the peak it reached in July and putting the benchmark index into what’s called a “correction.”

The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, or 19.86 points, to close at 4,117.37. That marks its 10th loss in the last 12 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 366.71 points, or 1.1%, to 32,417.59.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks slipped 20.07 points, or 1.2% to 1,636.94, its lowest level in about four years.


Market Watch

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Top