NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:

[farmerge]

ASX 200 expected to fall again​

The Australian share market is expected to open the week lower following a poor finish to last week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 16 points or 0.2% lower on Monday.

On Friday, another drop for stocks on Friday helped drag Wall Street to its first losing week in the last six.

The S&P 500 fell 33.56, or 0.8%, to 4,348.33, pulling back further from last week when it reached its highest level in more than a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 219.28, or 0.6%, to 33,727.43, and the Nasdaq composite sank 138.09, or 1%, to 13,492.52.


Market Watch
View attachment 158654

Unfortunately for me it was blood letting.

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asia mixed after Wall St drifts lower following run-up

Asian stock markets are mixed after Wall Street drifted lower following its latest rally. Shanghai and Hong Kong advanced. Tokyo and Seoul declined. Oil prices rose.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street drifts to start what could be a quiet week​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Stock indexes drifted lower Monday as Wall Street’s pullback from its big recent rally carried into a second week.

The S&P 500 fell 19.51 points, or 0.4%, to 4,328.82. It’s still close to its highest level in a year, reached a couple weeks ago.

Technology stocks were the heaviest weights on the market and pulled indexes lower even though the majority of stocks on Wall Street rose. They dragged the Nasdaq composite to a loss of 156.74, or 1.2%, to 13,335.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was sturdier and slipped 12.72 points, or less than 0.1%, to 33,714.71.

Carnival fell 7.6% for the sharpest drop in the S&P 500 despite reporting stronger results and revenue for the latest quarter than expected. It gave forecasts for upcoming earnings per share and other measures that may have disappointed some investors, particularly after its stock has already cruised upward by more than 80% this year.

Tesla was another stock whose torrid run cooled amid concerns that it went overboard. It fell 6.1% after roughly doubling this year so far. For the overall S&P 500, last week marked the first losing week in the last six for the index, and critics have been saying it was due for a pullback.

On the winning side of Wall Street was PacWest Bancorp, one of the banks that Wall Street has punished in its hunt for the system’s next potential weak link. It rose 4% after it sold a portfolio of loans to strengthen its cash position.

Electric vehicle company Lucid Group rose 1.5% after announcing a deal where it would provide powertrain and battery systems to Aston Martin.

Trading was mostly quiet in financial markets around the world as the fundamental question remains the same, and unanswered for investors: Will the economy be able to avoid a painful recession after central banks around the world hiked interest rates at a blistering pace to get inflation under control?

Adding to the uncertainty was a short-lived armed rebellion in Russia over the weekend. The war in Ukraine has already helped push upward on inflation around the world, but investors mostly looked past the brief mutiny by mercenary soldiers.

Crude oil prices ticked slightly higher, unlike the first days of the war in Ukraine when they soared immediately. A barrel of U.S. crude rose 21 cents to $69.37. Brent crude, the international standard, added 33 cents to $74.18 per barrel.

This upcoming week does not have many economic or earnings reports that can help answer investors’ main question. A report on Friday will show how the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation behaved in May, but data already arrived earlier this month on prices at the consumer and wholesale levels.

More emphasis will be on June’s inflation data, which will arrive next month. Also upcoming is the next monthly jobs report, which will arrive in two Fridays.

For now, traders are betting those reports will push the Fed to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting, which runs July 25-26, according to data from CME Group. The Fed has been hiking its key overnight interest rate at a breakneck pace since early last year, though it refrained from making a move earlier this month. More importantly, much of Wall Street expects a hike next month to be the final one of this cycle.

The Fed, meanwhile, has suggested it could raise rates twice more because inflation remains stubbornly high even if it has come down from its peak last summer. The difference in expectations is minor, but each successive hike could mean a much bigger impact on the economy than the last.

High rates undercut inflation by applying the brakes to the entire economy, and they raise the risk of a recession if they stay too high, too long.

High rates have already helped cause several U.S. banks to fail, rattling confidence in the system. The manufacturing industry has also been contracting for months, and analysts say they don’t know what could break next in the economy under the weight of much higher rates.

“We have a slowing U.S. economy, a slowing global economy, all with on-going extreme inflation and high and going higher interest rate levels,” said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. “There is no bullish stock market scenario here.”

That’s even though the S&P 500 has climbed more than 20% since mid-October. That means Wall Street, by one definition, has moved into a “bull market,” which is what traders call a long-term upward run for stocks.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.72% from 3.74% late Friday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, slipped to 4.73% from 4.75%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe. Stocks in Shanghai fell 1.5%, but indexes moved more modestly elsewhere in Asia.

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market looks set to rise this morning despite a poor start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 20 points or 0.3% higher

NYSE Stock indexes drifted lower Monday as Wall Street’s pullback from its big recent rally carried into a second week.

The S&P 500 fell 19.51 points, or 0.4%, to 4,328.82. It’s still close to its highest level in a year, reached a couple weeks ago.

Technology stocks were the heaviest weights on the market and pulled indexes lower even though the majority of stocks on Wall Street rose. They dragged the Nasdaq composite to a loss of 156.74, or 1.2%, to 13,335.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was sturdier and slipped 12.72 points, or less than 0.1%, to 33,714.71

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares mixed despite Wall Street rally

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday despite a rally on Wall Street driven by optimism over reports suggesting the American economy is in better shape than feared. Australia’s be…

www.cbs42.com

Stock market today: Wall Street rises as economy holds up better than feared​

by: STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street rallied Tuesday after a round of reports suggested the economy is in better shape than feared.

The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to resume an upward climb that had carried it earlier this month to its highest level in more than a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 212 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 1.6%.

Airlines helped lead the way after Delta Air Lines said it still sees pent-up demand in the pipeline as passengers make up for lost opportunities to travel during the pandemic. It highlighted high-income customers in particular, who account for three-quarters of spending on air travel and still look to be in good financial shape despite high inflation

Delta’s stock took off by 6.8% after it said earnings this year should come in at the top end of the range it had earlier forecast. American Airlines climbed 5.5%, and United Airlines rose 5.1%.

Big tech stocks were also strong, continuing a big run this year spurred by excitement around artificial-intelligence technology. Nvidia, which has been at the center of the AI frenzy, rose 3.1% to vault its gain for the year so far to 186.5%.

High inflation is hurting other companies more directly, though. Walgreens Boots Alliance dropped 9.3% after it reported weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The retail pharmacy company also cut its forecast for earnings this fiscal year, saying customers have become more cautious in their spending and are looking for more value amid high inflation.

Lordstown Motors sank 17.2% after the electric pickup truck company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It had warned in early May that it was in danger of failing due to a dispute with electronics company Foxconn, which was wavering on a $170 million investment in the startup company.

The U.S. stock market has been on a tear this year despite much higher interest rates meant to get inflation under control, in part because the economy has so far managed to avoid a recession. But many investors are just delaying their predictions for the start of a recession rather than cancelling them.

Reports on the economy Tuesday were largely stronger than expected. A reading on consumer confidence jumped to its highest level since the start of 2022, and orders for long-lasting manufactured goods unexpectedly grew, beating economists’ forecasts for a pullback.

Sales of new homes in May also topped economists’ expectations, which sent stocks of homebuilders climbing. Lennar rose 4.1% and Toll Brothers rose 3.3%.

A measure of manufacturing activity in the Richmond, Virginia, region stretching from Maryland to South Carolina contracted, but not by as much as economists feared. Manufacturing has been one of industries hardest hit by much higher interest rates.

All the economic data will feed into decisions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks about whether to keep cranking interest rates higher. High rates can undercut inflation, but they do so by slowing the entire economy and raising the risk of a recession.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, warned Tuesday that inflation is declining slowly and pledged to raise rates high enough “to break this persistence.” She once again made it seem nearly certain the central bank will raise rates again in July.

That’s also the expectation for the Federal Reserve. But the hope on Wall Street is that a hike next month could be the final one for the Fed, even if it has suggested recently that it could raise rates twice more this year.

Traders have largely given up on hopes of multiple cuts to interest rates in 2023, something that many were predicting earlier this year.

“We believe central banks have more work to do,” said Andrew Patterson, senior international economist at Vanguard. “We’ve always said inflation wouldn’t come down magically, even as post-pandemic supply chain issues were resolved.”

All told, the S&P 500 rose 49.59 points to 4,378.41. The Dow climbed 212.03 to 33,926.74, and the Nasdaq added 219.89 to 13,555.67.

In Asian markets, stocks in Shanghai rose 1.2%. China’s No. 2 leader, Premier Li Qiang, said economic growth has accelerated and can hit this year’s official 5% target. Li, speaking at a conference, gave no growth rate for the latest quarter but said it is faster than the previous quarter’s 4.5%.

Stocks also jumped 1.9% in Hong Kong, though they were more muted elsewhere in Asia and across Europe.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 3.76% from 3.72% late Monday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, rose to 4.76% from 4.74%

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Wednesday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 26 points or 0.35% higher this morning.

This follows a strong night on Wall Street, which saw the the S&P 500 rose 1.1% to resume an upward climb that had carried it earlier this month to its highest level in more than a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 212 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 1.6%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 49.59 points to 4,378.41. The Dow climbed 212.03 to 33,926.74, and the Nasdaq added 219.89 to 13,555.67.

It is also worth highlighting that Australian inflation data will be released today, which could make things volatile.

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares are lower after central bankers say interest rates must stay high

Asian stock markets are mixed after leaders of major central banks said they need to keep interest rates high to fight persistent inflation despite fears that might tip the global economy into recession.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street drifts through a quiet day to finish mixed​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks were mixed on Wall Street Wednesday, as indexes drifted between small gains and losses through a quiet day of trading.

The S&P 500 edged down by 1.55, or less than 0.1%, to 4,376.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 74.08 points, or 0.2%, to 33,852.66, while the Nasdaq composite rose 36.08, or 0.3%, to 13,591.75.

General Mills fell to one of the market’s larger drops after the maker of Cheerios and Haagen-Dazs reported weaker revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It sank 5.2% despite reporting stronger profit than expected and giving a forecast for upcoming results that was close to Wall Street’s.

Other food companies also fell, including drops of 4% for Hershey, 3.7% for J.M. Smucker and 3.5% for Conagra Brands.

On the winning side of Wall Street was AeroVironment, which rose 4.9%. The maker of unmanned aircraft, tactical missile systems and other equipment used by the U.S. military and in Ukraine reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than expected. It also gave a stronger forecast for upcoming results than analysts expected amid what it called a record backlog.

Cruise operators also steamed ahead, continuing a strong year built on expectations for healthy demand for vacations. Carnival jumped 8.8% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 and has more than doubled so far this year. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings gained 7.6%, and Royal Caribbean Group gained 1.7%.

A day earlier, other travel-related stocks helped lead the market after Delta Air Lines said it’s still seeing pent-up demand from fliers looking to make up for lost time during the pandemic.

Elsewhere in markets, trading was relatively quiet. Stock indexes rose in Europe and were mixed in Asia. Treasury yields fell.

The big question for markets worldwide is whether economies will continue to be able to avoid falling into recession despite the weight of much higher interest rates meant to bring down inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday that stubborn inflation means interest rates will need to stay high. The Fed has said it expects to raise rates one or two more times this year, while the European Central Bank and others have sounded even more aggressive.

But heads of Western central banks speaking at a conference in Portugal also said their economies have been more resilient than expected and they don’t foresee a contraction.

For now, the U.S. economy has been holding up better than expected thanks in large part to a remarkably resilient job market. Strong reports on consumer confidence, sales of new homes and other areas of the economy on Tuesday helped lead to a 1.1% rally for the S&P 500. Earlier this month, the S&P 500 reached its highest level since April 2022.

“Following some early week jitters, we’ve now seen a return to business-as-usual in global equities. Markets are taking some comfort from U.S. economic indicators which are showing no signs of an imminent ‘hard landing’ with regard to growth,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said in a report.

Economists are increasingly hopeful a recession may be avoidable, delayed, or that contraction may be limited to specific sectors and not the entire economy.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.70% from 3.77% late Tuesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, sank to 4.70% from 4.76%.

In Europe, stock indexes rose with France’s CAC 40 leading the way with a 1% gain.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2% as the weakening value of the Japanese yen benefits exporters from the country. Stock indexes elsewhere in Asia moved more modestly and were mixed.

ASX 200 expected to edge lower​

The Australian share market is expected to have a subdued session on Thursday after a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 5 points lower this morning.

In the United States, stocks were mixed on Wall Street Wednesday, as indexes drifted between small gains and losses through a quiet day of trading.

The S&P 500 edged down by 1.55, or less than 0.1%, to 4,376.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 74.08 points, or 0.2%, to 33,852.66, while the Nasdaq composite rose 36.08, or 0.3%, to 13,591.75.


Market Watch

 

[divs4ever]

Banks Pass Fed’s Stress Test. Now the Focus Is Dividends.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/bank-stress-tests-results-e7936e99?mod=markets

and the charade continues , simply incredible

 

[bigdog]

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2023-06-29/stock-market-today-asian-shares-are-mixed-after-central-bankers-say-interest-rates-must-stay-high

Stock Market Today: Stocks Rise and Bond Yields Jump After the Latest Signs of a Resilient Economy​

Most stocks ticked higher on Wall Street following the latest signs that the U.S. economy remains stronger than feared

NEW YORK (AP) — Most stocks ticked higher on Wall Street Thursday following the latest signs that the U.S. economy remains stronger than feared.

The S&P 500 rose 19.58 points, or 0.4%, to 4,396.44 and is on track for its sixth winning week in the last seven. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 269.76, or 0.8%, to 34,122.42, while the Nasdaq composite edged down by 0.42, or less than 0.1%, to 13,591.33.

Yields jumped in the bond market after data showed the U.S. economy grew at a 2% annual rate in the first three months of the year, much stronger than the 1.3% rate earlier estimated. Another report said fewer workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than expected, a sign that the job market remains remarkably solid despite much higher interest rates meant to slow the overall economy.

“The US economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. “This is leading many to rightly question whether the long-forecast recession is truly inevitable.”

On one hand, the data are a positive for investors because they suggest the economy can keep growing and support profits for companies, which are the lifeblood of the stock market. Stocks of companies whose profits are most tied to the economy's strength were among Wall Street's biggest gainers, including those in the financial, raw-material and energy industries.

But on the other hand, the resilient data could also push the Federal Reserve to see the economy as strong enough to keep hiking interest rates to drive down inflation. That kept the S&P 500 swinging between small gains and losses for much of the morning.

The Fed has pulled rates higher at a blistering pace since early last year. High rates slow inflation by dragging on the entire economy, and they have already hurt the manufacturing and other industries while helping to cause three high-profile failures in the U.S. banking system.

Thursday’s data pushed up expectations among traders for the Fed to raise rates twice more this year, according to data from CME Group. That’s what the Fed has been suggesting it would do, but Wall Street has been slow to accept it.

The shift helped drive the two-year Treasury yield up to 4.87% from 4.71% late Wednesday. It tends to track expectations for Fed action.

The 10-year yield rose to 3.83% from 3.71%. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

In the stock market, banks rallied to some of the biggest gains. Wells Fargo rose 4.5%, JPMorgan Chase climbed 3.5% and U.S. Bancorp gained 2.9%.

The Federal Reserve said late Wednesday that the nation’s 23 largest banks would be able to survive a severe recession in its latest “stress test” of the system. Failing the test would have restricted banks from paying dividends or buying back their own stock to send cash to shareholders.

A stronger economy could also help banks make more money from lending, though higher interest rates could pressure their balance sheets.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned Thursday the central bank may have to tighten regulation of the system after several banks collapsed when rising rates knocked down the value of bonds they bought and other investments made when rates were ultralow.

Much scrutiny has been on smaller and mid-sized banks as Wall Street hunts for the next potential weak links in the system. Several rose Thursday to trim their big losses from earlier this year. PacWest Bancorp gained 3.3%, for example.

On the losing end of Wall Street was McCormick. The spices company fell 5.5% after reporting weaker revenue for the latest quarter than expected, though its profit topped expectations. It also raised its forecasted range for profits this year, but only the top end of the range for earnings per share matched analysts' expectations.

Micron Technology fell 4.1% for another one of the biggest declines in the S&P 500 after forecasting a larger loss for the summer than analysts expected. That was despite the memory and storage company reporting stronger results for the latest quarter than expected. Micron also said it thinks the bottom has passed for the chip industry’s revenue, and it expects profit margins to improve.

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market looks set to end the week in a positive fashion following a reasonably solid night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 12 points or 0.15% higher this morning.

In the United States, most stocks ticked higher on Wall Street Thursday following the latest signs that the U.S. economy remains stronger than feared.

The S&P 500 rose 19.58 points, or 0.4%, to 4,396.44 and is on track for its sixth winning week in the last seven. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 269.76, or 0.8%, to 34,122.42, while the Nasdaq composite edged down by 0.42, or less than 0.1%, to 13,591.33.

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

The U.S. stock market will be open a half-day on Monday and closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.

Stock market today: Another rally sends Wall Street nearly 16% higher for the first half of the year

Wall Street blazed to another rally to cap a winning week, month and first half of the year after reports suggested pressure on inflation may be easing.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Another rally sends Wall Street nearly 16% higher for the first half of the year​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street blazed to another rally Friday to close a winning week, month and first half of the year after reports suggested pressure on inflation may be easing.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to reach its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 285 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4%.

The market has cruised through 2023 in part because the economy has been able to defy many predictions for it to fall into a recession, at least so far. The job market in particular has remained resilient despite high interest rates that slow the economy in hopes of dragging down inflation. That’s helped profits for companies not fall as much as feared.

“Just think back to the beginning of the year: There was more pessimism both on the economic and corporate fronts,” said Lisa Erickson, head of the public markets group at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “And we’ve just seen, on both fronts, outperformance.”

Not only that, Wall Street hopes inflation is cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to soon halt its hikes to rates. That would mean less added pressure for the economy and financial markets.

A report on Friday showed a measure of inflation that the Fed prefers to use eased in May. It also said growth in spending by consumers slowed by more than expected. If fewer dollars are chasing after purchases, that could remove more pressure on inflation.

“There’s lots of noise around the edges, but tepid consumption growth and a downward trend for inflation means the end is near for rate hikes,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

The Fed has already raised rates a mammoth 5 percentage points from virtually zero early last year. Traders on Wall Street pared back bets that the Fed may hike interest rates twice again this year, with the majority betting the federal funds rate will be only 0.25 percentage points higher at the end of 2023, if it all, according to data from CME Group.

Yields in the bond market turned lower after the release of the economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.82% from nearly 3.87% just before the report’s release. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, slipped to 4.88% from 4.90% just before the report’s release.

A separate report from the University of Michigan said sentiment among consumers is improving, but their expectations for inflation aren’t rising. That could also make for an easier Fed. The central bank has said it wants to avoid a vicious cycle where expectations for high inflation drive behavior that only worsens inflation.

Easier interest rates help prices for all kinds of investments. But technology and other high-growth stocks tend to be seen as some of the biggest winners, and they helped to lead the market.

Nvidia rose 3.7%, for example. It’s been among a small cadre of stocks that have exploded higher this year amid a frenzy about artificial-intelligence software. It’s up 189.5% for the year so far.

Apple climbed 2.3% to become the first U.S. stock to end a day with a total market value of more than $3 trillion.

Cruise line operators also helped drive the rally. Carnival led all stocks in the S&P 500 with a 9.7% gain, while Norwegian Cruise Line climbed 4.2%. Travel stocks have been hot recently on expectations for strong demand as vacationers head back out.

On the losing end of Wall Street was Nike. It fell 2.6% after reporting weaker profit for the latest quarter than expected, though its revenue topped forecasts.

One criticism of the stock market’s rally this year has been how much of it was because of just a handful of big technology stocks. Gains recently have broadened out a little, and the market’s smallest stocks rose 0.4%, as measured by the Russell 2000 index.

Stocks are generally more expensive than they’ve been historically, relative to their profits, but they still look “in the zone of OK,” said U.S. Bank’s Erickson. She is suggesting investors stick to a “neutral” approach, not bulking up any more than usual on stocks versus bonds but also not abandoning them.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 53.94 points to 4,450.38. The Dow gained 285.18 to 34,407.60, and the Nasdaq climbed 196.59 to 13,787.92.

The S&P 500 closed out its sixth winning week in its last seven and its best month since October. The index’s gain of 15.9% through the first six months of the year is better than it’s done in 16 of the last 23 full years.

In stock markets abroad, one of the world’s best stock markets this year took a breather after Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1%. It still rose 27.2% in the first six months of 2023.

The U.S. stock market will be open a half-day on Monday and closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.

 

[bigdog]

The U.S. stock market will be open a half-day on Monday and closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.​

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market is expected to open the week higher following a solid finish on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 29 points or 0.35% higher on Monday.

In the United States, Wall Street blazed to another rally Friday to close a winning week, month and first half of the year after reports suggested pressure on inflation may be easing.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to reach its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 285 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4%.

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

The U.S. stock market was open a half-day on Monday and will be closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.​

Stock market today: Asian stocks mixed after Wall St hits 15-month high ahead of holiday

Asian stock markets are mixed after Wall Street hit a 15-month high ahead of a decision by Australia’s central bank on a possible interest rate hike.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street tacks a bit more to its big run for the first half of the year​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks edged higher in a shortened trading day Monday as momentum slowed on Wall Street following its powerful rally through the first half of the year.

The S&P 500 rose 5.21 points, or 0.1%, to 4,455.59 and reached its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10.87, or less than 0.1%, to 34,418.47, and the Nasdaq composite added 28.85, or 0.2%, to 13,816.77.

Tesla was the strongest force lifting the S&P 500 upward after the market heavyweight climbed 6.9%. The company said over the weekend that the number of vehicles it delivered during the spring surged by 83% from a year earlier. That was more than analysts expected, though cuts to prices may have driven some of the gains. Investors will see how much the discounts hit profits when Tesla reports its earnings on July 19.

Rivian Automotive, another electric-vehicle company, jumped 17.4% after it also reported deliveries for the spring that topped analysts’ expectations.

On the losing end of Wall Street was Apple, which slipped 0.8% after becoming the first U.S. stock on Friday to finish a trading day with a total value of more than $3 trillion.

Much of the rest of the market was relatively quiet following a rally where the S&P 500 climbed in six of the last seven weeks to send the index up nearly 16% for the first half of the year.

Trading in the U.S. stock market ended at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time and will remain closed Tuesday in observance of Independence Day.

The market’s gains so far this year have come as the U.S. economy has defied many predictions for a recession. The job market in particular has remained solid despite much higher interest rates meant to undercut inflation.

One area of the economy that has faltered is manufacturing, and a report on Monday showed it contracted in June for an eighth straight month. The reading from the Institute for Supply Management was worse than economists expected.

“Manufacturing is stuck in the mud and it looks like more rain is coming,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “The only solace in the ISM report was that inflationary pressures are absent, but that’s little comfort when earnings continue to be at risk.”

Traders nevertheless hope that strength in other areas will keep the economy out of a recession, which would help to support corporate profits. A report later this week will go a long way toward underscoring or weakening that argument.

On Friday, the U.S. government will report its latest monthly update on hiring across the economy, as well as how much wages are rising for workers. It’s one of the last big pieces of data left before the Federal Reserve meets next on interest rate policy.

The Fed has already hiked rates by a mammoth 5 percentage points from virtually zero early last year in hopes of getting inflation under control. But it’s hinted that it may be nearing the end of the increases, which would mean less added pressure on the economy and financial markets. Much of Wall Street expects it to raise rates on July 26.

The hope among traders is that will be the Fed’s final increase of the cycle. The Fed, meanwhile, has hinted that it could perhaps raise rates twice more this year.

Other than Friday’s jobs report, the other big piece of data that could change the Fed’s thinking before its next meeting are likely the latest updates on monthly inflation.

In the bond market, yields swung following the weaker-than-expected data on manufacturing. The yield on the 10-year Treasury recovered from an initial drop to rise to 3.86%, up from 3.84% late Friday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, also pared losses to rise to 4.92% from 4.90% late Friday.

European markets ended modestly lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7% to add to its huge run to start the year. Stocks rose across much of the rest of Asia, with Hong Kong up 2.1% and South Korea up 1.5%.

ASX 200 expected to edge 1 point lower​

The Australian share market looks set for a subdued session despite a positive start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 1 point lower.

On Wall Street, stocks edged higher in a shortened trading day Monday as momentum slowed on Wall Street following its powerful rally through the first half of the year.

The S&P 500 rose 5.21 points, or 0.1%, to 4,455.59 and reached its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10.87, or less than 0.1%, to 34,418.47, and the Nasdaq composite added 28.85, or 0.2%, to 13,816.77.


MARKET WATCH

 

[bigdog]

The U.S. stock market was closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.​

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2023-07-04/stock-market-today-asian-stocks-mixed-after-wall-st-hits-15-month-high-ahead-of-holiday

Stock Market Today: Global Stocks Higher After Wall St Hits 15-Month High Ahead of Holiday​

Global stock markets were mostly higher Tuesday after Australia's central bank kept its key lending rate unchanged and Wall Street hit a 15-month high.

London, Shanghai, Paris and Hong Kong advanced. Tokyo declined. Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they are extending cuts to the amount of oil they pump to try to prop up prices..

Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.1% on Monday ahead an update on U.S. employment, a factor watched by the Federal Reserve in deciding on possible additional interest rate hikes.

In early trading, the FTSE 100 in London gained less than 0.1% to 7,530.05. The CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.1% to 7,935.38 and the DAX in Frankfurt added 0.1% to 16,098.39.

U.S. markets were closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index gained less than 0.1% to 3,245.34 while the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo lost 1% to 33,422.52. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong advanced 0.4% to 19,393.33.

Sydney's S&P-ASX 200 gained 0.5% to 7,279.00 after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark lending rate at 4.1% in the day's biggest market data point.

Australia's inflation is past its peak but “still too high and will remain so for some time," said RBA Gov. Philip Lowe in a statement. He warned “further tightening of monetary policy may be required.”

The Kospi in Seoul lost 0.4% to 2,593.31 while India's Sensex advanced 0.6% to 65.618.63.

New Zealand and Bangkok advanced while Singapore and Jakarta declined.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite added 0.2%.

The S&P 500 is at its highest level since April 2022. The benchmark has climbed in six of the past seven weeks for a 16% gain so far this year.

Traders expect at least a brief recession following U.S. and European rate hikes to cool inflation but have been encouraged by signs U.S. hiring is strong.

U.S. manufacturing contracted in June for an eighth month, according to a monthly survey released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.

The government report Friday on hiring and wages is one of the last big data points before the Fed's meeting next month on interest rate policy.

Tesla Inc. was the strongest force lifting the S&P 500 upward after the market heavyweight climbed 6.9%. The company said spring deliveries surged by 83% from a year earlier. That was more than analysts expected. Tesla reports earnings on July 19.

Rivian Automotive, another electric-vehicle company, jumped 17.4% after spring deliveries topped forecasts.

Apple Inc. slipped 0.8% after becoming the first U.S. stock on Friday to finish a trading day with a total value of more than $3 trillion.

The Fed has hinted it may be nearing the end of rate hikes, which would mean less pressure on economic activity. Much of Wall Street expects a rate hike July 26.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude gained 60 cents to $70.39 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 85 cents Monday to $69.79. Brent crude, the price basis for international oil trading, advanced 59 cents to $75.24 per barrel in London. It retreated 76 cents the previous session to $74.65.

The dollar declined to 144.48 yen from Monday's 144.72 yen. The euro fell to $1.0899 from $1.0913.

ASX 200 expected to fall​

The Australian share market looks set to run out of steam on Wednesday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 12 points or 0.15% lower this morning.

This follows a poor night of trade in Europe while Wall Street was closed for Independence Day. This saw the DAX fall 0.25% and the FTSE drop 0.1%.

Market Watch

U.S. stock market was closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday​

REST of WORLD

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian markets extend losses after Wall Street drifts lower

Shares are lower in Asia after Wall Street drifted downward following a rally that sent it roaring 16% higher for the year so far.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street drifts lower as markets worldwide pull back​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street edged lower Wednesday following a rally that had sent it roaring 16% higher for the year so far.

The S&P 500 fell 8.77 points, or 0.2%, to 4,446.82 to drift lower from its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 129.83, or 0.4%, to 34,288.64, and the Nasdaq composite lost 25.12, or 0.2%, to 13,791.65.

Other markets around the world fell more sharply following the latest discouraging signal from China’s economy. Growth in China’s services industry slowed by more than economists expected last month. It’s the latest evidence showing the world’s second-largest economy is stumbling in its recovery following the removal of anti-COVID restrictions

The U.S. economy, meanwhile, has remained stronger than many investors feared. It’s defied predictions for a recession because of a job market that’s remained remarkably solid despite much higher interest rates meant to bring down inflation.

A report on Wednesday showed growth for U.S. factory orders held steady in May, though economists expected to see an acceleration.

Hope is rising that inflation is cooling enough to get the Federal Reserve to soon stop its hikes to rates, which undercut inflation by slowing the entire economy. At its last meeting, the Fed decided to hold rates steady, the first time in more than a year that it refrained from hiking rates.

Some Fed officials wanted to raise rates at that last meeting, according to minutes from the June meeting released Wednesday. The vote was unanimous, though, to hold the federal funds rate steady within a range of 5% to 5.25%, up from virtually zero early last year.

Much of Wall Street expects the Fed to raise rates later this month. Less certain is whether a second hike will hit by the end of the year, as the Fed has been hinting. In the end, that may not matter much, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird.

“The move from zero to 5% is all that matters,” he said. “The Fed has either gone too far and damaged the economy, and we just haven’t seen it yet, or they haven’t.”

“We’ll see that in due time,” he said, saying one or two more increases of a quarter of a percentage point won’t have that much of an impact by themselves.

That could leave the U.S. stock market stuck in a holding pattern as everyone waits to see if a long-predicted recession does happen or not. The upcoming earnings reporting season could offer some clues, with companies telling investors how much profit they earned during the spring.

Mayfield said he’s particularly interested to hear from companies that sell directly to consumers, to see whether the main pillar holding up the U.S. economy is weakening at all.

Yields were mixed in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.93% from 3.86% Monday, when bond trading ended early ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The 10-year yield helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, held steady at 4.94%.

On Wall Street, shares of UPS fell 2.1% as the company tries to reach a deal with the Teamsters union representing about 340,000 of its workers. Their current contract expires at the end of the month, and Teamsters members last month voted in favor of a strike authorization.

Companies that do a lot of business in the China region were also weak. Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts, which get significant chunks of revenue from Macau, both fell at least 4.6%.

On the winning side was Meta Platforms. The parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp looks poised to unveil a new app that appears to mimic Twitter. It rose 1.9%, adding to a stellar year where it’s already soared 144.6%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes slumped 1.6% in Hong Kong and 0.7% in Shanghai following the discouraging economic data from China. That added to worries about high tensions between China and the United States, the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing this week announced restrictions on exports of gallium and germanium, two metals used in making semiconductors and solar panels. That came ahead of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit this week as part of U.S. efforts to restore strained relations.

Stocks fell 0.3% in Japan, 0.6% in South Korea, 0.8% in France and 0.6% in Germany.

ASX 200 expected to fall​

The Australian share market is expected to have another poor session on Thursday after a disappointing night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 37 points or 0.5% lower this morning.

In the United States, Wall Street edged lower Wednesday following a rally that had sent it roaring 16% higher for the year so far.

The S&P 500 fell 8.77 points, or 0.2%, to 4,446.82 to drift lower from its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 129.83, or 0.4%, to 34,288.64, and the Nasdaq composite lost 25.12, or 0.2%, to 13,791.65.

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares fall as strong US data dash hopes for an end to rate hikes

Asian shares have slipped after another decline on Wall Street, where hopes for an end to interest rate hikes have been dashed by strong economic data.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street falls after hot jobs data raises threat of high rates​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks fell Thursday after reports suggested the U.S. job market remains much more resilient than expected.

The S&P 500 lost 35.23, or 0.8%, to 4,411.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 366.38, or 1.1%, to 33,922.26, and the Nasdaq composite gave up 112.61, or 0.8%, to 13,679.04.

While a sturdy labor market keeps the economy out of a long-feared recession, it could also push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer in its campaign to defeat high inflation. That in turn could mean more pressure down the line on the economy and financial markets.

A report from ADP Research Institute suggested hiring by private employers was much stronger last month than economists expected, with nearly twice as many jobs created than forecast.

The ADP report can be volatile and “isn’t necessarily a good predictor of the monthly jobs report” that is more comprehensive and due from the U.S. government on Friday, said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office.

But it also paired with a separate report showing the number of U.S. workers applying for unemployment last week remains low relative to history, even if it was a bit higher than expected.

Other reports on Thursday offered a nuanced picture. One said employers advertised fewer job openings in May than expected. That could mean less upward pressure on inflation. A separate report meanwhile said growth in U.S. services industries remains hot and accelerated in June.

Friday’s jobs report will likely have a much bigger impact on Wall Street than anything else this week. If it’s strong like the ADP report, it could mean counterintuitive pain for stocks because it would push the Fed to keep the brakes on the economy in hopes of getting inflation under wraps. That would raise the risk of a recession later on, even if the strong job market is what’s preventing a downturn at the moment.

“Whether it’s that big of a number” as what the ADP report suggested “or even half of that, it would still be showing that the labor market is very strong and the Fed has not done enough to get inflation down,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors.

“Even with some of this nuanced economic data, the bottom line is the labor market is always a lagging indicator” and later to crack under the weight of higher interest rates than other parts of the economy, she said. “We still expect the labor market to get weaker.”

She expects a recession to hit within the next 12 months.

Yields jumped in the bond market as traders ramped up bets for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer than previously expected. Hopes for a potential cut to interest rates by early next year diminished.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.03% from 3.94% late Wednesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, climbed to 4.99% from 4.95%. It’s back to where it was in early March, before the failures of several U.S. banks rattled confidence across financial markets.

Those collapses were caused in part by all the rate hikes the Federal Reserve has piled on since early last year. It’s raised its federal funds rate by a mammoth 5 percentage points from virtually zero to try to smother the worst inflation in decades. High interest rates work by slowing the entire economy, and unanticipated cracks often appear under the pressure.

On Wall Street, Exxon Mobil was one of the heaviest weights on the market after it tumbled 3.7%. It warned of a hit to its profit during the spring because of changes in gas prices and industry margins, among other items.

JetBlue Airways sank 7.2% after it said it will end a partnership with American Airlines in the northeastern United States after losing a court fight over the deal. JetBlue will focus instead on salvaging its proposed purchase of Spirit Airlines. American Airlines fell 2.4%.

Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, wavered between small gains and losses after unveiling its new app Threads, a rival to Twitter, which has had a bumpy ride under new owner Elon Musk. Meta ended the day down 0.8%.

Stock markets abroad also fell sharply.

China’s market has been under particular pressure as the recovery for the world’s second-largest economy sputters following the removal of anti-COVID restrictions. Tensions between China and the United States have also weighed on the market, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China Thursday attempting to improve relations.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 3%, partly due to sharp drops for Chinese banks shares after Goldman Sachs downgraded them, citing concerns about the slowing economy and lenders’ exposures to debt. Stocks in Shanghai fell 0.5%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.7% after being one of the world’s stars through the first half of the year.

In Europe, France’s CAC 40 tumbled 3.1% and Germany’s DAX lost 2.6%.

ASX 200 expected to sink again​

The Australian share market looks set to end the week in a disappointing fashion following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 90 points or 1.2% lower this morning.

In the United States, stocks fell Thursday after reports suggested the U.S. job market remains much more resilient than expected.

The S&P 500 lost 35.23, or 0.8%, to 4,411.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 366.38, or 1.1%, to 33,922.26, and the Nasdaq composite gave up 112.61, or 0.8%, to 13,679.04.


Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Australia had a very bad Friday

The Australian share market suffered its worst day of losses since March as rising bond yields deter equity investors.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 121.1 points, or 1.69 per cent, at 7,042.3, while the broader All Ordinaries fell 120.9 points, or 1.64 per cent, to 7,244.1.

The local bourse finished the week 2.24 per cent lower, wiping away gains made since the start of the year.

Stock market today: Wall Street drifts after jobs report comes in warm but hopefully not too hot

Wall Street drifted to a mixed close after data suggested the U.S. job market is still warm enough to keep the economy growing but maybe not so hot that it stokes inflation much higher.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street drifts after jobs report comes in warm but hopefully not too hot​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish Friday after data suggested the U.S. job market is still warm enough to keep the economy growing but maybe not so hot that it stokes inflation much higher.

The S&P 500 lost 12.64 points, or 0.3%, to 4,398.95, though slightly more stocks within the index rose than fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 187.38, or 0.6%, to 33,734.88, and the Nasdaq composite edged down by 18.33, or 0.1%, to 13,660.72.

A lot is riding on whether the economy can navigate the narrow pathway to avoid a long-predicted recession. It needs to keep growing despite much higher interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation. But it can’t grow so quickly that the Fed feels pressure to brake much harder on the economy to prevent inflation from spiraling higher.

Friday’s report showed U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from May’s hiring of 306,000. Perhaps more importantly, it wasn’t far off economists’ expectations. That’s unlike a report from Thursday, which sent stocks dropping after it suggested U.S. hiring could be much stronger than expected.

Besides the slowdown in overall hiring, some numbers underneath the report’s surface also showed some loosening in the job market. More people are working part-time because their hours have been cut, for example, said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

“The job market is healthy, for now, but it’s not red hot,” he said.

That could keep the Federal Reserve on the course it’s been hinting at recently: perhaps two more increases this year before the Fed holds rates at a high level to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target. The wide assumption on Wall Street is the Fed will hike rates at its next meeting in three weeks.

Treasury yields were mixed following the much anticipated jobs data. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.05% from 4.03% late Thursday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.94% from 5.00%.

Some concerning signals for inflation were also still embedded in the report.

Wage growth held steady last month, instead of slowing as economists expected, for example. While workers would rather have the 4.4% gain in average hourly earnings from a year earlier than the 4.2% that was predicted, Wall Street’s fear is the Fed will see too-strong wage growth as keeping upward pressure on inflation.

Yields are already around their highest levels since March, which was when high rates helped trigger three failures in the U.S. banking system that rattled confidence across financial markets. High rates have also caused pain in other areas of the economy, from manufacturing to housing.

Stocks in the energy industry were among Wall Street’s strongest Friday as the price of oil rallied. Oilfield services provider Schlumberger jumped 8.6%, Halliburton climbed 7.8% and Marathon Oil rose 4.3%.

The higher crude prices also helped stocks of solar companies, which got an added boost after First Solar announced a $1 billion credit facility from a group of banks. It’s building factories and other expansions, and First Solar shares gained 3.3%.

Stocks of smaller companies also rose more than the rest of the market. Not only do investors see them as moving more closely with the strength of the U.S. economy than big multinational companies, smaller stocks are also viewed as more dependent on lower interest rates. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks rose 1.2%.

On the losing side of Wall Street was Levi Strauss, which tumbled 7.7% despite reporting slightly stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It cut its forecasted range for earnings for the full year, as its U.S. wholesale business remains under pressure.

Costco Wholesale fell 2.3% after reporting its growth in sales slowed in June from May.

Higher yields helped pull the S&P 500 to a loss of 1.2% for the week. That’s its second losing week in the last eight.

In stock markets abroad, indexes continued to sink in China, where a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is slower than hoped following the removal of anti-COVID restrictions. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9%, and stocks in Shanghai slipped 0.3%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was also in Beijing attempting to ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

She and Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed hopes for better communication. Relations between the the two economic titans have been prickly amid the U.S. government’s curbs on exports of technology to China and other tensions.

In Europe, stocks were mixed. Germany’s DAX returned 0.5%, and the FTSE 100 in London fell 0.3%.

 

[bigdog]

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market is expected to open the week higher despite a poor finish on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 25 points or 0.3% higher on Monday.

In the United States, Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish Friday after data suggested the U.S. job market is still warm enough to keep the economy growing but maybe not so hot that it stokes inflation much higher.

The S&P 500 lost 12.64 points, or 0.3%, to 4,398.95, though slightly more stocks within the index rose than fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 187.38, or 0.6%, to 33,734.88, and the Nasdaq composite edged down by 18.33, or 0.1%, to 13,660.72.

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares rise ahead of a US inflation update on hopes for easing rate hikes

Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher Tuesday ahead of an update on U.S. consumer prices that traders hope will show inflation is easing, reducing the need for more interest rate hikes.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street ticks higher ahead of updates on inflation, profits​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks ticked higher on Wall Street Monday ahead of a week with updates on where inflation and corporate profits are heading.

The S&P 500 rose 10.58, or 0.2%, to 4,409.53, coming off just its second losing week in the last eight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 209.52, or 0.6%, to 33,944.40, and the Nasdaq composite added 24.77, or 0.2%, to 13,685.48..

FMC, which sells herbicides, insecticides and other products to the agricultural industry, tumbled 11.1% for the biggest loss in the S&P 500 after it warned of a sudden drop in business around much of the world toward the end of May as partners burned through inventory levels. It said the “unforeseen and unprecedented” declines would hurt its results for the spring and full year.

On the winning side of Wall Street was Helen of Troy, which said profit and revenue fell by less last quarter than analysts expected. The company behind OXO, Hydro Flask and other brands jumped 18.5%. But it also warned of expectations for a slower economy.

The big question hanging over Wall Street is whether the U.S. economy can avoid a long-predicted recession despite high interest rates meant to pull down inflation. The hope is that inflation is easing enough for the Federal Reserve to soon halt its hikes to rates, which have already caused cracks in the banking industry and other corners of the economy.

A report on Wednesday will offer the latest monthly update on inflation at the consumer level, and economists expect it to show another slowdown. They’re forecasting consumer prices were 3.1% higher in June than a year earlier, down from 4% inflation in May.

The Fed has acknowledged inflation has slowed since last summer, when it peaked just above 9%, But it’s also hinted that it may raise rates one or two more times this year before holding them at a high level to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target.

Such talk has helped erase many earlier bets among traders that the Fed may not only halt its hikes to interest rates this year but also to cut them. That’s caused Treasury yields to jump back toward their highest levels since March, before high rates helped cause the collapses of several U.S. banks that rattled confidence in the system.

Treasury yields fell back on Monday The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.00% from 4.06% late Friday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.86% from 4.95%.

An expectation for higher yields is one of the reasons Barry Bannister, managing director at Stifel, says the S&P 500 could hit a pause after its big first half of the year and end 2023 at 4,400.

When bonds are paying more in interest, particularly after taking inflation into account, stock investors aren’t willing to pay as much for each $1 in profits that companies are producing. That puts downward pressure on stock prices.

Bannister expects the U.S. economy to slow through the back half of 2023 but then succumb to a recession in early 2024. The resilient job market is propping the economy up now, but its strength may push the Fed to take a harder stance on interest rates to drive out inflationary pressures.

“Labor is just too hot, making it difficult for the Fed to achieve” its goal for inflation, Bannister wrote in a report. That pushes him to ask: “WWJD” - What Will Jerome Do?” in reference to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The other big factor that sets stock prices, corporate profits, will also come into focus at the end of this week, when companies begin reporting on how they did during the spring.

Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will report their results on Thursday, and JPMorgan Chase will headline a rush of bank reports on Friday.

The wide expectation is for companies across the S&P 500 to report a 7.2% drop in earnings per share for the second quarter from a year earlier. If analysts’ forecasts prove correct, that would be the worst drop for the index since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic was paralyzing the global economy.

In markets abroad, stocks inched higher in China amid hopes that the government may offer more stimulus. Its economic recovery has faltered following the removal of anti-COVID restrictions.

China said Monday that producer prices fell 5.4% in June from a year earlier, down from a 4.6% drop in May, as growth in the U.S. and Europe continued to taper. Consumer price inflation was flat, also suggesting weakening of demand as activity in the world’s second largest economy slows

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also wrapped up a fence-mending visit to Beijing on Sunday with no major agreements or breakthroughs in strained ties, as expected. But Yellen said relations were on a “surer footing” between the world’s largest economies.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.6%, and stocks in Shanghai rose 0.2%. Stocks were mixed in the rest of Asia and modestly higher in Europe.

ASX 200 expected to rebound​

The Australian share market looks set for a much better session on Tuesday following a positive start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 43 points or 0.65% higher.

On Wall Street, stocks ticked higher on Wall Street Monday ahead of a week with updates on where inflation and corporate profits are heading.

The S&P 500 rose 10.58, or 0.2%, to 4,409.53, coming off just its second losing week in the last eight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 209.52, or 0.6%, to 33,944.40, and the Nasdaq composite added 24.77, or 0.2%, to 13,685.48..


Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares follow Wall Street higher; Activision Blizzard jumps

Asian shares are mostly higher after stocks advanced on Wall Street. Investors are watching for an update on US inflation that will hopefully show a smaller increase in pain for everyone.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street gets a late push ahead of inflation data; Activision Blizzard jumps​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks climbed Tuesday as Wall Street prepared for an upcoming update on inflation that will hopefully show a smaller increase in pain for everyone.

The S&P 500 rose 29.73, or 0.7%, to 4,439.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.02 points, or 0.9%, to 34,261.42, and the Nasdaq composite added 75.22, or 0.5%, to 13,760.70.

Activision Blizzard jumped 10% for one of the market’s larger gains after a judge ruled Microsoft could move forward on its $69 billion takeover of the video game maker. Salesforce was the biggest force driving the Dow after climbing 3.9% on price increases announced for its products. Amazon also pushed the market upward and rose 1.3% on the first day of its annual Prime Day sales event.

Much of Wall Street’s gains for the day came at the end of trading, with about a third of the S&P 500’s rise happening in the final 20 minutes. The week’s main event will arrive Wednesday, when the U.S. government will offer the latest update on inflation at the consumer level. Economists expect to see another slowdown, with prices 3.1% higher in June than a year earlier, down from inflation of 4% in May and just above 9% last summer.

The hope on Wall Street is that a continued easing in inflation will convince the Federal Reserve to stop its hikes to interest rates soon. High rates have helped pull down inflation, but they’ve also caused cracks in the banking, manufacturing and other industries while also hurting prices for stocks and other investments.

Later in the week, companies will begin telling investors how much profit they made during the spring, and expectations are largely dim. Analysts are forecasting the sharpest drop in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies since the pandemic was crushing the global economy in the spring of 2020.

This upcoming reporting season could mark the trough for corporate profit declines, according to strategists at Bank of America. They point to some resilient trends in the economy, as well as how many companies are offering forecasts for upcoming results that are above analysts’ expectations.

“We expect companies to sound more upbeat than in prior quarters,” strategists including Ohsung Kwon wrote in a BofA Global Research report. “Companies are likely to highlight bottoming process in business conditions and building momentum throughout the quarter and into July.”

Because of the low bar set for companies for the spring, they may be able to squeak past without much heroics.

WD-40 jumped 18.5% after it said revenue grew during the three months through May following two straight quarters of flat to lower sales. It reported stronger growth in both profit and revenue than analysts expected, and stuck to its forecasts for full-year sales and profit.

On the losing side of Wall Street were several cruise operators, which lost momentum following a torrid start to the year. Carnival fell 2.1%, and Royal Caribbean slipped 1.9%. Both, though, are still up more than 100% for the year so far.

Bank of America drifted between losses and gains after regulators ordered it to $250 million in customer refunds and fines. It ended with a gain of 1.3% after regulators said it double-dipped on fees, withheld rewards on credit cards and opened accounts without customers’ knowledge.

In the bond market, Treasury yields were mixed after rising last week on expectations the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer in its campaign to get inflation under control.

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 3.97% from 4.00% late Monday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other loans.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, inched up 4.88% from 4.86%.

In markets abroad, most stock indexes rose. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.7% and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.1%.

Stocks in London rose 0.1% after a report showed U.K. wages are rising at a record rate amid stubbornly high inflation. That’s bolstering expectations for the central bank there to keep raising interest rates.

ASX 200 expected to rise again
The Australian share market looks set to continue its recovery on Wednesday thanks to a solid night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 35 points or 0.45% higher this morning.

In the United States, stocks climbed Tuesday as Wall Street prepared for an upcoming update on inflation that will hopefully show a smaller increase in pain for everyone.

The S&P 500 rose 29.73, or 0.7%, to 4,439.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.02 points, or 0.9%, to 34,261.42, and the Nasdaq composite added 75.22, or 0.5%, to 13,760.70.

Market Watch

ALMOST A SEA OF GREEN EXCEPT NZ

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares jump on Wall Street's return to its highest level in over a year

Asian shares have opened higher, boosted by Wall Street’s return to its highest level in more than a year after a report showed U.S. consumer inflation cooled a bit more than expected last month.

apnews.com

Stock market today: Wall Street returns to highest level in more than a year after inflation cools​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street returned to its highest level in more than a year on Wednesday after a report showed inflation cooled a bit more than expected last month, which hopefully takes some more pressure off the economy.

The S&P 500 rose 32.90, or 0.7% to 4,472.16 to reach its strongest closing level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 86.01, or 0.3%, to 34,347.43, and the Nasdaq composite gained 158.26, or 1.2%, to 13,918.96.

Most stocks rose on Wall Street, from flashy Big Tech behemoths to staid utility companies, though the gains faded a bit as the day progressed.

The U.S. government’s latest update on inflation showed that consumers paid prices for gasoline, food and other items that were 3% higher overall in June than a year earlier. That’s down from 4% inflation in May and a bit more than 9% last summer. Perhaps more importantly, it was a touch lower than economists expected.

High inflation has been at the center of Wall Street’s problems because it’s driven the Federal Reserve to jack up interest rates at a blistering pace. Higher rates undercut inflation by slowing the entire economy and hurting investment prices, and they’ve already caused damage to the banking, manufacturing and other industries.

Traders remain nearly convinced the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its meeting in two weeks to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which would be its highest level since 2001. But expectations are also climbing for that to be the final increase after rates started last year at virtually zero.

“They’ll probably still pull the trigger on a hike, but it will be based on symbolism more than substance,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. He pointed to another report earlier this month that showed a slowdown in U.S. jobs growth, which could also take some pressure off inflation.

Treasury yields tumbled in the bond market after the cooler inflation data pushed traders to trim bets for Fed action later this year.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.86% from 3.98% late Tuesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.73% from 4.89%. It tends to follow expectations for the Fed more closely.

To be sure, even if the Fed does halt its hikes, analysts warn the economy and financial markets still haven’t seen the full effect of all the past increases. Rate hikes take a notoriously long time to filter through the system, and unanticipated pain can occur.

That’s what happened in March, when high rates helped cause the failure of three U.S. banks and rattled faith in the system.

“Despite today’s deceleration, we continue to expect inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, making it unlikely that we see policy easing soon,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas.

That means she expects rates to stay high for a while. That’s also why many investors say the waiting game is still on to see if a long-predicted recession actually happens.

A resilient job market has helped to keep the economy out of a recession, though it’s also under pressure from higher rates. The latest “Beige Book” from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said that overall economic activity has increased slightly since late May. It also said several Fed districts have noticed some slowing in inflation.

In the meantime, stocks that tend to benefit the most from lower interest rates led the way on Wall Street Wednesday. That includes big technology and other high-growth stocks.

Nvidia was the strongest force pushing up the S&P 500 after it jumped 3.5%. Microsoft was close behind with a gain of 1.4%.

Banks also rose on hopes for a halt to rate hikes. Earlier rate increases strained their business by knocking down the value of loans and bonds bought when rates were ultra low. Following the March collapses of three banks, their stocks tumbled as Wall Street hunted for the industry’s next potential weak link.

KeyCorp. rose 3.1%, Comerica gained 3.1% and Zions Bancorp. added 2.8%. Their shares are still sharply lower for the year.

Domino’s Pizza jumped 11.1% for the biggest gain in the index after it announced a partnership where customers can order its pies through Uber Eats.

In Europe, the Bank of England warned Wednesday that households are facing increasing problems from sharply rising interest rates but expressed hope that the country’s biggest banks were resilient enough to offer more help than they could before the global financial crisis 15 years ago.

Stocks in London rose 1.8% and were also higher across much of the rest of Europe.

In Asia, stocks were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.8% after North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile toward its eastern waters Wednesday, two days after the North threatened “shocking” consequences to protest what it called provocative U.S. reconnaissance activity near its territory.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.1%, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.5% and stocks in Shanghai fell 0.8%.

ASX 200 expected to storm higher​

The Australian share market is expected to have a strong session on Thursday after a solid night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 62 points or 0.85% higher this morning.

In the United States, Wall Street returned to its highest level in more than a year on Wednesday after a report showed inflation cooled a bit more than expected last month, which hopefully takes some more pressure off the economy.

The S&P 500 rose 32.90, or 0.7% to 4,472.16 to reach its strongest closing level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 86.01, or 0.3%, to 34,347.43, and the Nasdaq composite gained 158.26, or 1.2%, to 13,918.96.


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[bigdog]

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2023-07-13/stock-market-today-asian-shares-jump-on-wall-streets-return-to-its-highest-level-in-over-a-year

Stock Market Today: Wall Street's Winning Week Stays Perfect as Inflation Eases Further​

Wall Street’s winning streak barreled into a fourth day following the latest signal that inflation is easing its chokehold on the econom
By Associated Press
July 13, 2023,

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street's winning streak barreled into a fourth day Thursday following the latest signal that inflation is easing its chokehold on the economy.

The S&P 500 rose 37.88, or 0.8%, to 4,510.04 and its highest close since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.71, or 0.1%, to 34,395.14, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 219.61, or 1.6%, to 14,138.57 as Big Tech stocks led the way.

The S&P 500 is on track for its seventh winning week in the last nine after more data raised hopes that inflation is cooling enough to get the Federal Reserve to soon end its blistering run of hikes to interest rates. Inflation at the wholesale level slowed more than expected in June, and prices paid by producers were just 0.1% higher during the month than a year earlier. That’s down from 11.2% inflation last summer.

High inflation has been the main reason investors have been fearing a possible recession, because of how high the Federal Reserve has cranked interest rates to get prices under control. High rates undercut inflation by bluntly slowing the entire economy and hurting prices for investments. They can also cause unanticipated parts of the economy to break.

Traders remain nearly convinced the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting in two weeks to its highest level since 2001. But this week’s inflation data has also pushed traders to build bets for that to be the final rate increase of this cycle.

A report on Wednesday showed that prices consumers paid in June were 3% higher than a year earlier, down from inflation of more than 9% last summer. It’s been a “cool summer breeze,” as Deutsche Bank economists describe it.

Treasury yields fell further in the bond market as traders pared bets for Fed rate hikes later this year.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.76% from 3.86% late Wednesday and from 3.98% late Tuesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield fell to 4.63% from 4.75% late Wednesday and from 4.89% late Tuesday. It moves more on expectations for action by the Fed.

The drop for yields accelerated after James Bullard said in the afternoon that he's stepping down as president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank to join Purdue University's business school as its dean next month. He was one of the loudest voices at the Fed pushing for higher rates to control inflation.

Easier interest rates help all kinds of investments. But many investors see big technology and other high-growth stocks among the biggest beneficiaries.

That had Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia among the strongest forces pushing up the S&P 500. Amazon gained 2.7% after it said the first day of its annual Prime Day event on Tuesday was the biggest sales day in its history.

Alphabet rose 4.7% after Google said it’s rolling out Bard, its chatbot powered by artificial intelligence, to more countries around the world and launching new features for it.

Nvidia, which has been at the center of a frenzy on Wall Street around AI, rose 4.7%.

PepsiCo added 2.4% after it beat analysts’ profit expectations for the spring. It saw lower demand for drinks and snacks, but higher prices helped its earnings. PepsiCo also raised its forecasts for results for the full year.

The earnings reporting season is just getting underway, and JPMorgan Chase will lead a barrage of banks on Friday that will tell investors how much they made during the spring. Expectations overall are dim, and analysts are forecasting the sharpest drop in earnings for S&P 500 companies since the pandemic was walloping the global economy in the spring of 2020.

A resilient job market has nevertheless been keeping the economy out of a recession. A report on Thursday showed fewer workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than expected. To be sure, too strong of a job market could also push the Federal Reserve to get more aggressive about interest rates and inflation.

While inflation is showing encouraging signals, Wall Street may be piling too quickly into a consensus that it will keep cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to ease up on rates and prevent a recession, warned Chun Wang, senior research analyst and co-portfolio manager at Leuthold.

In a report, Wang said the market may be underestimating the risk that inflation stays stuck at 3% to 4% in the next six to 12 months and that “the path forward for both inflation and the Fed policy is not a no-brainer at all. We get the sneaking suspicion that the current soft landing narrative will be seriously challenged before the first leaf falls from the tree.”

On the losing side of Wall Street Thursday was Exxon Mobil. It fell 1.8% after saying it would buy Denbury, which owns carbon dioxide pipelines, for $4.9 billion in stock. Denbury fell 1.3%.

ASX 200 expected to rise again​

The Australian share market looks set to continue its winning streak on Friday after a decent night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 39 points or 0.5% higher this morning.

In the United States, Wall Street's winning streak barreled into a fourth day Thursday following the latest signal that inflation is easing its chokehold on the economy.

The S&P 500 rose 37.88, or 0.8%, to 4,510.04 and its highest close since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 47.71, or 0.1%, to 34,395.14, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 219.61, or 1.6%, to 14,138.57 as Big Tech stocks led the way.

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[bigdog]

Stock market today: A raucous week for Wall Street closes with a quiet, mixed finish

Another winning week for Wall Street drifted to a quiet close following profit reports from several big U.S. companies that topped expectations.

apnews.com

Stock market today: A raucous week for Wall Street closes with a quiet, mixed finish​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street’s latest winning week closed with a mixed finish on Friday following stronger profit reports than expected from several big U.S. companies.

The S&P 500 slipped 4.62, or 0.1%, to 4,505.42 to edge back from its highest closing level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 113.89, or 0.3%, to 34,509.03, and the Nasdaq composite fell 24.87, or 0.2%, to 14,113.70.

Insurance giant UnitedHealth Group rallied 7.2% after it said profit growth during the spring was better than feared. It also raised the bottom end of its forecast for earnings for the full year.

JPMorgan Chase rose 0.6% after it said its profit during the spring grew by more than expected thanks in part to its acquisition of the troubled First Republic Bank. It had been up more in the morning, but it faded through the day like the broader market. Wells Fargo likewise swung to a drop of 0.3% from an earlier gain after reporting stronger profit for the second quarter than expected.

Helping to drag down Wall Street was State Street, which dropped 12.1% after reporting slightly weaker revenue than expected for the latest quarter, though its profit topped forecasts.

The earnings reporting season is just getting underway, and Wall Street’s expectations are low. Analysts are forecasting the worst drop in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies since the spring of 2020. If they’re right, it would also mark a third straight quarter where profits sank.

Such expectations are key for financial markets, because one of the biggest factors that set a stock’s price is how much profit a company produces. Wall Street nevertheless rallied hard this week and closed out its seventh winning week in the last nine because of rising optimism for the other major lever that sets stock prices: how much investors are willing to pay for each $1 of corporate profits.

Two reports earlier this week showed that inflation continued to cool across the U.S. economy in June. That bolstered investors’ hopes that the Federal Reserve is close to feeling comfortable enough to halt its blistering campaign to raise interest rates.

The Fed has already hiked its federal funds rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%, up from virtually zero early last year. High rates undercut inflation by slowing the economy and putting downward pressure on prices for stocks and other kinds of investments.

The expectation is still for the Fed to raise rates one more time at its next meeting in two weeks. But traders are largely betting on that being the final hike of the cycle.

Treasury yields rose Friday, paring some of their sharp tumble from earlier this week caused by traders paring bets for Fed rate hikes later this year.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.82% from 3.77% late Thursday. But it’s still well below the 3.98% it sat at late Tuesday, before the inflation reports were released. The 10-year yield helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

The two-year Treasury yield more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, and it’s at 4.73%, down from 4.89% late Tuesday.

Yields rose after a report on Friday suggested consumers are feeling much better about the economy thanks to slower inflation and a still-solid job market. A preliminary reading on a University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment at its highest level since September 2021, though lower-income consumers weren’t feeling as positive.

Solid spending by U.S. consumers has been one of the main pillars keeping the economy out of a recession. They’ve kept spending despite high interest rates as employers have continued to hire more workers.

The survey also suggested consumers aren’t raising their expectations for upcoming inflation much. The Federal Reserve has been adamant about wanting to avoid a vicious cycle where expectations for high inflation drive behavior that only worsens it.

The big recent gains for stocks on Wall Street have some critics cautioning investors not to get carried away by hopes for what’s called a “soft landing,” where high inflation can be vanquished without a painful recession.

“US data has undoubtedly been encouraging, and the Federal Reserve’s likelihood of staging a soft landing improves with every data point demonstrating resilient growth and falling inflation,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management.

But she said she still prefers safer, high-quality bonds over stocks in part because stock prices have climbed so quickly and set the bar higher for performance in the second half of the year. She also said growth for the U.S. economy could still fall close to zero later this year, even as inflation eases.

Hopes for an easier Fed also helped stocks worldwide to strengthen this week, though markets abroad were mixed on Friday.

 

[bigdog]

ASX 200 expected to edge lower​

The Australian share market is expected to open the week slightly lower following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 2 points lower on Monday.

In the United States, Wall Street’s latest winning week closed with a mixed finish on Friday following stronger profit reports than expected from several big U.S. companies.

The S&P 500 slipped 4.62, or 0.1%, to 4,505.42 to edge back from its highest closing level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 113.89, or 0.3%, to 34,509.03, and the Nasdaq composite fell 24.87, or 0.2%, to 14,113.70.

Market Watch