NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:

[bigdog]

The Australian share market looks set to continue its rise on Monday following a strong finish to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 70 points or 1% higher this morning.

The S&P 500 closed 86.98 points higher at 3,895.08. The Dow added 700.53 points to finish at 33,630.61, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 264.05 points to 10,569.29.

The S&P 500 rose 2.3%, marking its first winning week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.1% and the Nasdaq composite added 2.6%

 

[bigdog]

Asian stock markets mixed ahead of US inflation update

Stock markets are mixed ahead of a U.S. inflation update that traders hope will encourage the Federal Reserve to ease off plans for more interest rate hikes.

apnews.com

Stocks end up mixed on Wall Street after early gains fade​

By DAMIAN J. TROISE and STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks were mixed Monday at the start of a week with a few events that could shake markets, including updates on inflation and the health of corporate profits.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% after surrendering an early gain of 1.4% in its first trading after closing out its first winning week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped nearly 113 points, or 0.3%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.6%.

More stocks rose than fell, and Wall Street’s largely positive start to 2023 has come on hopes the Federal Reserve could ease up on its economy-shaking hikes to interest rates as inflation cools. Such rate increases have already slowed parts of the economy sharply, and the fear is more big hikes could cause a painful recession.

Treasury yields fell further Monday as traders adjust bets for what the Fed will do. They dropped Friday after data showed workers are winning weaker raises than in earlier months. While that’s discouraging for workers whose pay is still failing to keep up with rising bills, it could ultimately mean less upward pressure on inflation.

The next big marker for the market will be Thursday’s report on inflation at the consumer level. Economists expect it to show inflation slowed further to 6.5% last month from 7.1% in November.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track expectations for Fed action, fell to 4.19% from 4.26% late Friday and more than 4.70% in November. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans, fell to 3.52% from 3.57% late Friday.

Lower rates tend to help high-growth and technology stocks in particular, and they were some of the market’s leaders Monday.

Tesla added 5.9%, Nvidia rose 5.2% and Advanced Micro Device climbed 5.1% for some of the biggest gains in the S&P 500. Slightly more stocks in the index rose than fell.

Altogether, the S&P 500 slipped 2.99 points to 3,982.09. The Dow fell 112.96 to 33,517.65, and the Nasdaq rose 66.36 to 10,635.65.

Analysts, though, warn more bumpiness is almost surely on the way for the stock market. Even if inflation is slowing, the Fed has pledged to hike rates still further and then to hold them at a high level for a while to make sure the job is done on inflation.

And parts of the economy that do best when rates are low have already shown signs of sharp pain as the Federal Reserve has hiked its key overnight rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% from roughly zero a year ago.

Warnings are also coming for what look to be lackluster earnings reports from companies, which are contending with higher labor costs and other expenses that eat into their profits. Earnings reporting season is set to kick off on Friday, and this may mark the first year-over-year drop in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies since 2020.

“With 2022 behind us, investors are now primarily focused on the profit outlook for the coming year,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report.

For the full year of 2023, they see zero growth for S&P 500 earnings per share. And that’s if the economy avoids a recession. If a recession does hit, as many on Wall Street suspect, they say earnings could fall 11%. That’s key because profits are one of the main levers that set stock prices

Some retailers fell Monday after giving financial updates on sales and profitability that disappointed investors. Macy’s dropped 7.7%, and Lululemon Athletica fell 9.3%.

Stock markets in Europe and Asia gained ground. A Chinese financial news outlet cited a top central bank official as saying that China’s more than two-year crackdown on internet companies is nearly finished.

Market Watch
The Australian share market looks set to fall on Tuesday following a decent night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 10 points or 0.2% lower.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% after surrendering an early gain of 1.4% in its first trading after closing out its first winning week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped nearly 113 points, or 0.3%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.6%

The S&P 500 slipped 2.99 points to 3,982.09. The Dow fell 112.96 to 33,517.65, and the Nasdaq rose 66.36 to 10,635.65.

 

[bigdog]

Asia stocks echo Wall Street rally as inflation report looms

Asian shares are trading higher, boosted by a rally on Wall Street that came ahead of some potentially market-moving reports scheduled for later in the week.

apnews.com

Stocks tick higher on Wall Street as inflation report looms​

By DAMIAN J. TROISE and STAN CHOE

Stocks ticked higher in quiet trading on Wall Street Tuesday, ahead of some potentially market-moving reports scheduled for later in the week.

The S&P 500 rose 27.16 points, or 0.7%, to 3,919.25 after drifting between small gains and losses through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 186.45, or 0.6%, to 33,704.10, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 106.98, or 1%, to 10,742.63.

The stock market has had a positive start to 2023 due to hopes that cooling inflation and a slowing economy may convince the Federal Reserve to ease off its markets-shaking hikes to interest rates. The Fed since early last year has been raising rates at a furious pace in hopes of getting the nation’s painful inflation under control. Such moves risk causing a recession and hurt investment prices.

Investors were hoping for some clues about where the Fed is heading from its chair, Jerome Powell, who made remarks at a forum in Stockholm on Tuesday. But he gave little news about rates.

The next big marker for the market is likely Thursday’s update on how bad inflation was last month at the consumer level. Economists expect it to show U.S. inflation slowed further to 6.5% from 7.1% in November and from a peak of more than 9% in the summer.

A worse-than-expected reading could dash the building hopes on Wall Street that the Fed may stop its hikes soon and perhaps even cut rates by the end of the year. Some investors see the economy successfully walking the tightrope of slowing enough to snuff out high inflation but not so much as to cause a painful recession.

Past rate increases and high inflation have already hurt economic activity around the world, and the Fed has pledged to keep rates high for a while to ensure the job is done on inflation. It doesn’t envision any rate cuts until 2024.

The World Bank said Tuesday the global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year in its annual report.

It usually takes a while for rate hikes to be fully felt in the economy. That could push a recession off to the second half of the year, said Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel. The global economy could also benefit from strengthening in China, as it removes restrictions meant to keep COVID-19 at bay but that also hurt its economy.

“You’re looking at a pretty good six months where things get better at the margins and then trouble starts to rear its head,” Bannister said.

In the meantime, big U.S. companies will begin showing investors later this week how much profit they made during the last three months of 2022. Hot inflation has been squeezing customers’ wallets and raising costs for businesses, threatening their earnings.

Macy’s and several businesses have already given warnings about their results for the fourth quarter of 2022 and into 2023.

Troubled home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond on Tuesday reported weaker revenue for its latest quarter than analysts expected, though the size of its loss wasn’t as bad as Wall Street forecast. Its stock rose 27.8% after it also announced cost cuts to save cash as it considers a bankruptcy filing, among other options.

Job cuts are also continuing at tech-oriented companies, a notable soft spot in what’s otherwise been a healthy U.S. job market. The continuing collapse for crypto pushed Coinbase to say it’s cutting 20% of its workforce. The stock rose 13%.

Several big banks are scheduled to report their results for the latest quarter on Friday, including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Delta Air Lines and UnitedHealth Group will also report results on Friday. Analysts are forecasting this may mark the first year-over-year drop in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies since 2020.

Bond yields rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set mortgage rates, climbed to 3.61% from 3.53% late Monday.

European markets fell and Asian markets closed mixed overnight. Crude oil prices rose

Market Watch
The Australian share market looks set to rebound on Wednesday following a solid night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 30 points or 0.4% higher this morning.

The S&P 500 rose 27.16 points, or 0.7%, to 3,919.25 after drifting between small gains and losses through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 186.45, or 0.6%, to 33,704.10, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 106.98, or 1%, to 10,742.63.

 

[bigdog]

Asian shares mixed ahead of key US inflation data

Asian shares are mixed ahead of a closely watched report on U.S. inflation viewed as a good indicator of whether Wall Street’s recent rising optimism is warranted or overdone.

apnews.com

Stocks rise as traders make last moves before inflation data​

By DAMIAN J. TROISE and STAN CHOE

U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday as investors locked in their final moves ahead of a highly anticipated report on inflation, one that could show whether Wall Street’s rising optimism recently has been warranted or overdone.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.3% for its second straight gain before Thursday morning’s inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 269 points, or 0.8%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 1.8%.

Stocks have started 2023 with gains on hopes that cooling inflation and a slowing economy may get the Federal Reserve to ease off its sharp hikes to interest rates. Such increases can help stamp out high inflation, but they also slow the economy by design and raise the risk of a recession while hurting prices for stocks and other investments.

Economists expect Thursday’s report to show inflation is continuing to cool from its summertime peak, down to 6.5% last month from 7.1% in November and from more than 9% in June. The hope on Wall Street is that such a trend toward normal could convince the Fed to soon halt its blistering set of rate increases, many of which were at shock-and-awe levels that were triple the usual amount.

Some investors are even betting the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of this year, to help prop up an economy that’s beginning to show pockets of weakness because of past rate hikes. Cuts to rates typically act like steroids for markets, helping prices for stocks and other investments.

“One real thing I think underpinning the market is simply the fact that the market doesn’t believe the Fed when they say they’re going to keep hiking this year,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network.

Of course, that also means investors could be setting themselves up for disappointment. If Thursday’s data and other reports don’t show inflation is improving as much as expected, it could mean the Fed would have to get tougher on interest rates.

The Fed has already said repeatedly it plans to raise its key overnight interest rate further, past its current perch sitting in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. That rate began last year at its record low of virtually zero.

The central bank has also insisted it plans to keep rates high for a while to ensure inflation is really beaten down. It does not envision any rate cuts happening this year, and it’s even said that any “unwarranted” rallies on Wall Street “driven by a misperception” would only make the mission of returning inflation to normal more complicated.

Recently, though, Wall Street has been looking through such pronouncements.

Treasury yields have been easing off their recent highs, in part on expectations for an easier Fed.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to track expectations for Fed action, dipped to 4.22% from 4.24% late Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans, fell to 3.53% from 3.61%.

If the economy does fall into a modest recession, possible rate cuts could offer some support for stocks. And hope is growing among investors that the economy could successfully walk the tightrope of slowing enough to snuff out high inflation but not so much as to cause a deep recession

That’s helped spark a mini-rebound for some of the stocks that fell the most last year, which plunged in large part because of rising rates.

Facebook’s parent, Meta, is up 10.4% so far in 2023 after slumping 64.2% in 2022, for example.

Later this week, companies will also begin reporting how much profit they made during the last three months of 2022. That’s key because earnings are one of the main levers that set stock prices, and the reports will offer a window into how companies are managing the squeeze of inflation.

Bank of America, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase and UnitedHealth are among those reporting results on Friday. Analysts say this could mark the first time earnings per share across S&P 500 companies dropped from year-ago levels since 2020.

The S&P 500 gained 50.36 points to 3,969.61 Wednesday. The Dow rose 268.91 to 33,973.01, and the Nasdaq climbed 189.04 to 10,931.67.

MARKET WATCH

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Thursday following a solid night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 57 points or 0.73% higher this morning.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.3% for its second straight gain before Thursday morning’s inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 269 points, or 0.8%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 1.8%.

The S&P 500 gained 50.36 points to 3,969.61 Wednesday. The Dow rose 268.91 to 33,973.01, and the Nasdaq climbed 189.04 to 10,931.67.

 

[bigdog]

Asian markets mostly higher, tracking Wall Street gains

Shares have advanced in Asia after news that U.S. consumer inflation slowed last month pushed Wall Street benchmarks higher. U.S. futures and oil prices edged lower.

apnews.com

Wall Street ticks higher as hot US inflation cools further​

By STAN CHOE and DAMIAN J. TROISE

Wall Street closed higher Thursday after a report showed inflation slowed again last month, bolstering hopes the Federal Reserve may take it easier on the economy through smaller hikes to interest rates.

While the report on U.S. inflation was clearly encouraging, stocks had already rallied earlier this week in anticipation of exactly such data. The numbers were in line with forecasts on many points, and analysts warned investors not to get carried away by them.

The S&P 500 rose 13.56 points, or 0.3%, to 3,983.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 216.96 points, or 0.6%, to 34,189.97. The Nasdaq rose 69.43 points, or 0.6%, to 11,001.10

Small company stocks outpaced the broader market. The Russell 2000 rose, 32.01 points, or 1.7%, to 1,876.06. Every major index is on track for weekly gains.

The nation’s painfully high inflation has been at the center of Wall Street’s wild movements for more than a year. Recently, stocks have been rising and bond yields have been falling on hopes inflation’s cooldown from a summertime peak may get the Federal Reserve to ease off its barrage of rate hikes. Such increases can stifle inflation, but they do so by slowing the economy and risk causing a recession. They also hurt investment prices.

In the bond market, Thursday’s inflation report sent yields falling further as traders grow more convinced the Fed will downshift the size of its next rate increase. They’re now largely forecasting a hike of just 0.25 percentage points next month, down from December’s half-point hike and from four prior increases of 0.75 percentage points.

Many traders are betting on the Fed to follow that with perhaps another quarter-point hike, but to then potentially take a pause, according to data from CME Group.

Analysts cautioned that while Thursday’s inflation report did show inflation at its least debilitating level in more than a year, it still leaves room for continued pressure on the economy from high rates. They warned more big swings may still be to come for markets.

“While we can safely say that we are past peak inflation, it is too early to call victory on the battle against higher inflation,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas

Analysts also warned investors not to think of slower rate hikes or a coming halt to increases as the same thing as cuts to interest rates, something some investors hope may happen later this year. Such cuts can act like rocket fuel for markets.

Inflation has been easing for six straight months. Even though it slowed to 6.5% last month from its peak of more than 9% in June, it’s still far too high for the Fed’s and U.S. households’ liking. The central bank has been adamant that it plans to continue raising rates this year and that it sees no rate cuts happening until 2024 at the earliest.

Of course, its forecasts have proven to be very wrong in the past, such as when officials called the initial burst of inflation coming out of the pandemic a “transitory” problem.

Some areas of the economy remain strong, threatening to keep up the pressure on inflation. Chief among them is the labor market. A report on Thursday showed fewer workers filed for unemployment benefits last week. That’s an indication layoffs remain low even though some big tech companies have made high-profile announcements on job cuts.

A strong job market is of course good for workers, particularly when their raises have been failing to keep up with inflation. But the Fed has been saying it does not want wage gains to get too high. That could create a vicious cycle where companies raise prices to cover their higher costs and only worsen inflation.

A report last week showed that workers’ wage gains slowed in December. That report, coupled with the latest inflation data “paints a strong picture that the Fed is starting to meet its target,” said Peter Essele, head of portfolio management for Commonwealth Financial Network. It also gives Wall Street more hope that the Fed can achieve a ”soft landing,” where it tames inflation without inflicting severe damage on the economy.

“The likelihood of a soft landing is probably greater now than it was in the past 12 months,” Essele said.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other economy-dictating loans, fell to 3.43% from 3.54% late Wednesday. The two-year yield, which tends to more closely track expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.12% from 4.22%.

On Wall Street, stocks of airlines flew to some of the biggest gains after American Airlines said it expects to report stronger revenue and profit than it had earlier forecast for the last three months of 2022. It rose 9.7%, while United Airlines gained 7.5%.

Earnings reporting season is set to kick off in earnest Friday, with JPMorgan Chase and UnitedHealth Group among the day’s headliners. One big worry on Wall Street is that high inflation and a slowing global economy are eating into profits for big companies.

Analysts say this could be the first time earnings per share for S&P 500 companies fall from year-ago level since 2020.

Market Watch

The Australian share market looks set to end the week with a solid gain following a decent night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 34 points or 0.45% higher this morning.

The S&P 500 rose 13.56 points, or 0.3%, to 3,983.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 216.96 points, or 0.6%, to 34,189.97. The Nasdaq rose 69.43 points, or 0.6%, to 11,001.10

 

[bigdog]

Wall Street ends higher as company earnings season kicks off

Stocks closed higher on Wall Street as earnings reporting season got underway and CEOs began to show how well or poorly they’re navigating high inflation and a slowing economy.

apnews.com

Wall Street ends higher as company earnings season kicks off​

By STAN CHOE and DAMIAN J. TROISE

Stocks closed higher on Wall Street Friday to give the S&P 500 its best week in two months as earnings reporting season gets underway and CEOs begin to show how well or poorly they’re navigating high inflation and a slowing economy.

The year has begun on Wall Street with optimism that cooling inflation trends could get the Federal Reserve to ease off soon on its sharp hikes to interest rates. Such increases can drive down inflation, but they do so by slowing the economy and risk causing a recession. They also hurt investment prices.

The S&P 500 rose 15.92 points, or 0.4%, to 3,999.09. It is up 4.2% so far this year following a dismal 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112.64 points, or 0.3%, to 34,302.61. The Nasdaq rose 78.05 points, or 0.7%, to 11,079.16.

Slowing chunks of the economy and still-high inflation are dragging on profits for companies, which are one of the main levers that set stock prices. Friday marked the first big day for companies in the the S&P 500 to show how they fared during the final three months of 2022, with a bevy of banks at the head of the line.

JPMorgan Chase rose 2.5% after beating analysts’ expectations for earnings and revenue. Bank of America also shook off a morning stumble to rise 2.2% after reporting better results than expected. Bank of New York Mellon rose 1.8% following its earnings release and announcement of a program to buy back up to $5 billion of its stock.

Several big banks said a recession is likely on the horizon for the U.S. economy, but it will probably be mild, and that consumers remain healthy. That has added to hopes that the Fed could achieve its goal of taming inflation without inflicting too much damage on the economy.

“Banks are telling the story of the broader economy and giving us a sense of where the economy is and where it may be headed,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

On the losing end was Delta Air Lines, which sank 3.5% after it gave a forecast that thudded onto Wall Street. Despite reporting stronger results for the end of 2022 than expected, its forecast for profit this quarter fell short of analysts’ expectations.

A drop for Tesla’s stock also weighed on Wall Street. It fell 0.9% after slashing prices dramatically on several versions of its electric vehicles. The move could drum up more sales but could also cut into its overall revenue.

One big worry on Wall Street is that S&P 500 companies may report a drop in profits for the fourth quarter from a year earlier. It would be the first such decline since 2020, when the pandemic was crushing the economy. Perhaps more importantly, the fear is that weakness could be just the beginning.

“That will suggest whether this market has to recalibrate,” Krosby said. “That’s why guidance from companies next week is going to be essential.”

If the economy does fall into a recession, as many investors expect, sharper drops for profits may be set for 2023. That’s why the forecasts for upcoming earnings that CEOs give this reporting season may be even more important than their latest results.

“We expect earnings to take the center stage going forward, where reactions to earnings have been getting bigger” and reactions in markets to inflation data and the Fed have been waning, equity strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

She expects cuts to estimates for corporate earnings to accelerate in coming months, which would pressure stocks.

Treasury yields rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.50% from 3.45% late Thursday. That yield helps set rates for mortgages and other loans that are crucial for wide swaths of the economy. The two-year yield, which tends to move more on expectations for the Fed, rose to 4.21% from 4.15%.

A report released Friday morning showed U.S. consumers downshifted their expectations for inflation in the coming year, down to 4%, which is the lowest reading April 2021. Long-run expectations for inflation, meanwhile, remain stuck in the narrow range of 2.9% to 3.1% that they’ve been in for 17 of the last 18 months, according to preliminary survey results from the University of Michigan.

The Federal Reserve has been intent on such numbers staying low. Otherwise, it could cause a vicious cycle that only worsen inflation. Consumers could start accelerating their purchases in hopes of getting ahead of higher prices, for example, which would only push prices higher.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I believe US markets closed Monday for MLK Birthday.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

I believe US markets closed Monday for MLK Birthday.

gg

i missed that one ( assuming you are correct )

will make life ( the market ) interesting with Australia Day being Thursday this year

thanks

i might have to reconsider some of my orders

cheers

 

[divs4ever]

WHOOPS !

looking at the wrong week ( for Australa Day )

but the Chinese New Year starts on January 22 nd ( a Sunday )

that will add some uncertainty late in the week

 

[divs4ever]

GOOD OL' USA IS BROKE!!!



???

didn't they just RAM through a BIG spending bill LAST MONTH

i saw a different date elsewhere but CNBC is fairly mainstream ( so 'politically acceptable' )

 

[bigdog]

The Australian share market looks set to continue its rise on Monday following a decent finish to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 35 points or 0.5% higher this morning.


NYSE Holiday is

 

[bigdog]

THE U.S. NYSE WAS CLOSED MONDAY FOR MARTIN LUTHER KING Jr HOLIDAY

World shares mostly higher ahead of China GDP data

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares were mostly higher in Europe and Asia on Monday ahead of China’s release of economic growth figures and a policy update this week from Japan’s central bank. Oil prices declined.

apnews.com

World shares mostly higher ahead of China GDP data​

By ELAINE KURTENBACH

Shares were mostly higher in Europe and Asia on Monday ahead of China’s release of economic growth figures and a policy update this week from Japan’s central bank.

Oil prices declined.

Germany’s DAX edged 0.1% higher to 15,101.73 and the CAC40 in Paris was nearly unchanged at 7,022.46. Britain’s FTSE was up 0.1% at 7,851.93. The future for the S&P 500 lost 0.5% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3%.

China was due to release a slew of economic data on Tuesday, including its GDP for the last quarter. Economists estimate that the world’s second-largest economy slowed further in October-December with a sharp rise in COVID-19 outbreaks as the government reversed course and loosened its rigorous pandemic controls.

On Wednesday, Japan’s central bank is due to provide an update on monetary policy as expectations build that it might opt to let yields on long-term government bonds rise further even if it does not change its minus 0.1% benchmark interest rate. The Bank of Japan’s decision last month to let the yield on 10-year bonds fluctuate in a wider range shook world markets.

In Asian trading Monday, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.1% to 25,822.32. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained less than 0.1% to 21,746.72 and the Kospi in Seoul added 0.6% to 2,399.86. The Shanghai Composite index added 1% to 3,227.59.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.8% to 7,388.20. Taiwan advanced 0.7% while Mumbai’s Sensex lost 0.3%.

Bangkok’s SET index gained 0.2% on forecasts for a turnaround for the economy, which has been battered by the pandemic.

The year has begun with optimism that cooling inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to ease off soon on sharp interest rate hikes that slow the economy and risk causing a recession. They also hurt investment prices.

Slowing segments of the economy and still-high inflation are dragging on profits for companies, which are one of the main levers that set stock prices. Friday marked the first big day for companies in the the S&P 500 to show how they fared during the final three months of 2022, with a bevy of banks at the head of the line.

One big worry on Wall Street is that S&P 500 companies may report a drop in profits for the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

If the economy does fall into a recession, as many investors expect, sharper drops for profits may be set for 2023. That’s why the forecasts for upcoming earnings that CEOs give this reporting season may be even more important than their latest results.

The Federal Reserve has been intent on such numbers staying low. Otherwise, it could cause a vicious cycle that would only worsen inflation. Consumers could start accelerating their purchases in hopes of getting ahead of higher prices, for example, which would only push prices higher.

In other trading Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 23 cents to $79.63 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude, the pricing standard for international trading, gave up 34 cents to $84.94 per barrel in London.

The dollar was trading at 128.42 Japanese yen, down from 127.87 yen. The euro bought $1.0831, barely changed from $1.0832.

ASX 200 expected to fall​

The Australian share market looks set to end its winning streak on Tuesday despite a positive night of trade in Europe. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 19 points or 0.26% lower.

In Europe, the DAX rose 0.3% and the FTSE pushed 0.2% higher. Wall Street was closed for a public holiday.

NYSE Closed Monday

REST OF WORLD TRADING MONDAY

 

[bigdog]

Asian shares decline as Bank of Japan keeps policy unchanged

Asian shares are mostly lower after Japan's central bank kept its lax monetary policy unchanged, contrary to speculation it would yield to pressure to tighten credit.

apnews.com

Stocks close mixed on Wall Street in uneven trading​

By DAMIAN J. TROISE and ALEX VEIGA

Stock indexes on Wall Street closed mixed Tuesday, as investors focus on a busy week of corporate earnings for insight into how much damage inflation is inflicting on the economy.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, ending a four-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, mostly because of a big drop in Goldman Sachs after the investment bank’s results came in far below analysts’ estimates as dealmaking dried up.

Gains in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq composite eke out a 0.1% gain, extending the tech-heavy index’s winning streak to a seventh day.

The mixed start to the holiday-shortened week follows a solid start to the year for Wall Street after a dismal 2022. The broader market is coming off its best week in two months, but investor sentiment could quickly turn as companies report their results for the October-December quarter.

Analysts still expect companies in the S&P 500 to report a drop in profits for the fourth quarter from a year earlier. That would mark the first such decline since 2020, when the pandemic was crushing the economy.

More importantly, investors are listening closely to financial updates from companies to get better determine whether inflation will continue squeezing consumers’ wallets and sapping corporate profits.

“We haven’t gotten much forward guidance from companies for the coming year yet, and that’s really what we’ll be focused on,” said Bill Merz, head of capital market research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “And it may be that forward guidance continues to be light in terms of content, because companies simply don’t know.”


Several banks reported encouraging financial results last week, but also said a mild recession is likely on the horizon for the U.S. economy. Among the companies reporting their latest results this week: Netflix, M&T Bank and Procter & Gamble.

Goldman Sachs slumped 6.4% Tuesday after the investment bank reported dismal results.

Big communications companies, health care stocks and industrial firms were among the biggest weights on the market. Netflix fell 2%, Pfizer dropped 3.7% and Emerson Electric slid 6.8% for the biggest decline among S&P 500 stocks.

Technology sector stocks were a bright spot. Chipmaker Nvidia rose 4.8%.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 8.12 points to 3,990.97. The Dow dopped 391.76 points to 33,910.85. The Nasdaq rose 15.96 points to 11,095.11.

Small company stocks also gave back some of their recent gains. The Russell 2000 index fell 2.75 points, or 0.1%, to close at 1,884.29.

Bond yields remained relatively stable. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.54% from 3.5% late Friday. Bond and stock markets were closed in the U.S. for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday.

Inflation and how the Federal Reserve will continue its fight against high prices remains the big concern for investors as they review earnings results and corporate statements.

“The forward outlook is very opaque at this point, because we’re at a potential turning point in inflation, a potential turning point in (Fed) policy trajectory and it remains to be seen the extent to which the significantly tighter policy headwinds will flow through to the earnings picture in 2023,” Merz said.

Wall Street will get another inflation update on Wednesday, when the government issues its December report on inflation at the wholesale level, which tracks prices before they are passed on to consumers. The government will also release retail sales data for December, which could give investors more insight into how inflation continues to affect consumer spending.

Inflation at the consumer level has been easing for six straight months, and that has given investors more hope that the Fed could soon consider softening its policy on interest rates. The central bank, though, has so far been adamant that it plans to continue raising rates this year and that it sees no rate cuts happening until 2024 at the earliest.

The central bank has raised its key overnight rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% from roughly zero a year ago. The Fed will announce its next decision on interest rates Feb. 1 Investors are largely forecasting a raise of just 0.25 percentage points next month, down from December’s half-point hike and from four prior increases of 0.75 percentage points.

MARKET OUTLOOK

The Australian share market looks set to bounce back on Wednesday despite a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 14 points or 0.2% higher this morning.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 8.12 points to 3,990.97. The Dow dopped 391.76 points to 33,910.85. The Nasdaq rose 15.96 points to 11,095.11

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, ending a four-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, mostly because of a big drop in Goldman Sachs after the investment bank’s results came in far below analysts’ estimates as dealmaking dried up.

Gains in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq composite eke out a 0.1% gain, extending the tech-heavy index’s winning streak to a seventh day.

 

[bigdog]

Asian shares mixed after biggest Wall St retreat of the year

Asian shares are trading mixed, as investors grow cautious after Wall Street’s biggest pullback of the year.

apnews.com

Wall Street has biggest pullback of the year, led by tech​

By DAMIAN J. TROISE and ALEX VEIGA

Wall Street had its biggest pullback of the year Wednesday after a broad slide for stocks wiped out much of the benchmark S&P 500 index’s gains from last week.

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% after having been up as much as 0.6% in the early going. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq composite slid 1.2%, ending a seven-day winning streak. The losses are reversal for the market, which kicked off the year with a two-week rally.

The selling came as new economic data showed that even as inflation continues to cool, the economy is slowing, heightening worries about the possibility of a recession. Meanwhile, a key Federal Reserve policymaker said interest rates need to go higher than the central bank has previously signaled.

The government reported that Americans cut back on their spending at retailers more than anticipated last month, the second straight decline. Separately, the Federal Reserve said U.S. industrial production, which covers manufacturing, mining and utilities, fell in December much more than economists had expected.

The government also reported more encouraging inflation data. Wholesale prices rose 6.2% in December from a year earlier, a sixth straight slowdown for the measure of prices before they are passed along to consumers.

“The appearances are that it looks like something is moving inflation and retail sales in the right direction, which is to say softer,” said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “The question is, what does it really mean?”


Wall Street has been hoping that easing inflation and a slowdown in economic growth might influence the Federal Reserve’s position on interest rates. The central bank aggressively raised rates throughout 2022 in an effort to cool hot inflation, but that has hurt prices of stocks and bonds, and risks going too far and bringing on a recession.

While there’s growing evidence that high inflation is finally easing, further rate hikes are still needed, according to Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

“I still see the larger risk coming from tightening too little,” Mester said in an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press.

Mester stressed her belief that the Fed’s key rate should rise a “little bit” above the 5% to 5.25% range that policymakers have collectively projected for the end of this year.

The central bank has raised its key overnight rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% from roughly zero a year ago. The Fed will announce its next decision on interest rates Feb. 1. Investors are largely forecasting a raise of just 0.25 percentage points next month, down from December’s half-point hike and from four prior increases of 0.75 percentage points.

“Today’s retail sales and industrial production disappointments increase the likelihood of a recession,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

The broader economic picture is still not clear enough to see whether the Fed’s fight against inflation is working well enough to avoid a recession. Several major banks have forecast at least a mild recession at some point in 2023

Technology stocks were among the biggest drags on the market, including a 1.9% drop in Microsoft after the tech titan joined others in its industry in announcing layoffs. The software giant is cutting 10,000 workers or almost 5% of its workforce.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 62.11 points to 3,928.86. The Dow dropped 613.89 points to 33,296.96. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 138.10 points to close at 10,957.86.

Small company stocks also lost ground. The Russell 2000 index fell 29.92 points, or 1.6%, to 1,854.36.

Treasury yields fell broadly as traders reviewed the latest economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences interest rates on mortgages and other loans, fell to 3.37% from 3.55% late Tuesday.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tracks expectations for future Fed action, fell to 4.09% from about 4.16% just before the latest economic data was released. It was as high as 4.21% late Tuesday.

Investors also reviewed the latest batch of corporate earnings to get more insight into how inflation and consumer spending are affecting profits and revenue. PNC Financial Services Group fell 6% after reporting weak earnings.

Markets in Europe and Asia closed mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.5% after the Bank of Japan kept its loose monetary policy unchanged, dispelling speculation that it would yield to pressure and join other central banks in raising interest rates to fight inflation.

MARKET WATCH

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Thursday following a poor night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 31 points or 0.4% lower this morning.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 62.11 points to 3,928.86. The Dow dropped 613.89 points to 33,296.96. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 138.10 points to close at 10,957.86.

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% after having been up as much as 0.6% in the early going. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq composite slid 1.2%, ending a seven-day winning streak. The losses are reversal for the market, which kicked off the year with a two-week rally

 

[bigdog]

Asian markets rise after Wall St losses amid recession fears

Asian stock markets are higher after Wall Street losses deepened as worries grow that the U.S. economy is headed for recession. Shanghai, Tokyo and Hong Kong advanced.

apnews.com

US stocks lose ground as recession fears weigh on market​

By DAMIAN J. TROISE and ALEX VEIGA

Wall Street’s losses deepened Thursday as worries that the U.S. may be headed for a painful recession kept stock traders in a selling mood.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each fell 0.8%, their third straight drop. The Nasdaq composite lost 1%.

Every major index is on track for a weekly loss after the market kicked off the year with a two-week rally. Analysts expect the broader market to remain unsteady as investors try to get a clearer picture of inflation and the economy’s path ahead.

“It’s very reflective of the conflicting views that investors have with respect to where things are headed here in early 2023,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.

Reports showed weakness in several areas of the economy, including the housing industry and manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region, though they weren’t quite as bad as expected and the job market appears to remain healthy. They follow worse-than-expected readings a day earlier on retail sales, a cornerstone of the economy, and industrial production.

The weaker economic data “has investors a little bit on edge, questioning how much consumer resilience is left in the tank,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird.

The latest economic data paint a picture of an economy slowing under the weight of last year’s blizzard of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The central bank aggressively raised interest rates to purposely slow the economy and cool inflation. The strategy risks hitting the brakes too hard on economic growth and causing a recession.

Several major banks are forecasting at least a mild recession this year as the impact from the Fed’s rate increases reverberates through the economy. Inflation has been cooling, but prices are still stubbornly high on many items, squeezing consumers.

The central bank has raised its key overnight rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% from roughly zero a year ago. The Fed will announce its next decision on interest rates Feb. 1. Investors are largely forecasting a raise of just 0.25 percentage points next month, down from December’s half-point hike and from four prior increases of 0.75 percentage points.

The central bank has maintained that it won’t ease off its fight against inflation until it is sure that prices are cooling. However, that stance is making Wall Street more uneasy with every new report that shows the economy is slowing.

“The Fed is still out in the press with the same higher-for-longer mantra, so there’s a little bit of a risk-off sentiment on that,” Mayfield said.

Fed officials have also been closely watching several areas of the economy, including the labor market, to get a better sense of whether inflation is slowing. The latest weekly unemployment data shows that employment remains strong, which is good for workers but makes the Fed’s fight against inflation more difficult.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tracks expectations for future Fed action, rose to 4.13% from 4.09% late Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences interest rates on mortgages and other loans, rose to 3.40% from 3.38%. Bond yields have been mostly falling since the beginning of the year.

More than 75% of the stocks in the S&P 500 closed lower. Technology companies, retailers and industrial stocks were among the biggest drags on the benchmark index. Chipmaker Nvidia fell 3.5%, Home Depot dropped 4% and Deere & Co. fell 4.1%.

The S&P 500 fell 30.01 points to 3,898.85. The Dow fell 252.40 points to 33,044.56. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 104.74 points to 10,852.27.

Small company stocks also fell. The Russell 2000 index lost 18.02 points, or 1%, to close at 1,836.35.

Wall Street is also closely reviewing the latest round of corporate earnings to get a clearer picture of how companies are dealing with inflation and a slowing economy. Credit card issuer Discover Financial slipped 0.4% after it forecast an increase in net charge-offs in 2023. Adhesives company H.B. Fuller shed 3.8% after reporting weak financial results.

Investors are also monitoring political developments that could eventually hurt the economy. The Treasury Department says it has started taking “extraordinary measures” as the government has run up against its legal borrowing capacity. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders Thursday urging them to act to raise the debt limit. The government can temporarily rely on accounting tweaks to stay open.

European markets fell and Asian markets ended mixed.

MARKET WATCH

The Australian share market looks set to rise slightly on Friday despite another poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 1 point lower this morning

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each fell 0.8%, their third straight drop. The Nasdaq composite lost 1%.

The S&P 500 fell 30.01 points to 3,898.85. The Dow fell 252.40 points to 33,044.56. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 104.74 points to 10,852.27.

 

[bigdog]

Rally for tech stocks helps soften Wall Street's rough week

A rally for tech stocks applied some salve on Wall Street’s rough week, one dominated by worries about a weakening economy.

apnews.com

Rally for tech stocks helps soften Wall Street’s rough week​

By STAN CHOE and ALEX VEIGA

A rough week on Wall Street dominated by worries about a weakening economy ended Friday with a broad rally that gave the market its best day in two weeks.

The S&P 500 rose 1.9%. Despite the gains, the benchmark index still ended with its first weekly loss in the last three. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% and the Nasdaq composite closed 2.7% higher.

Technology and communication services stocks powered much of the gains as investors cheered another big quarterly surge in Netflix’s subscribers. Remarks from a Federal Reserve official also helped build hope among investors that the central bank may decide to slow its pace of interest rate hikes as soon as next month.

The major indexes started the week in the red largely because of worries that the economy may not be able to avoid a scarring recession. Several reports on the economy came in weaker than expected, as the full weight of the Federal Reserve’s hikes to interest rates last year start to make their way through the system.

Not long ago, bad news on the economy was often perversely good news for Wall Street. That’s because investors took it to mean the Fed may ease up on its rate hikes. But bad news on the economy is increasingly becoming bad news for Wall Street, too, which is worrying more about the prospects of a serious recession.

Making things more complicated, several Fed officials through the week kept pounding the message that they’ll likely hike rates further and then hold them there a while to make sure the nation’s high inflation is really crushed. Even though inflation has begun to slow, upward pressure remains on it from a still-solid U.S. jobs market and other factors.

Many investors on Wall Street came into this week already forecasting a modest or short recession, but they also were hoping rate cuts by the Fed later this year could mean a rebound for markets. This week’s sour economic data and comments from central bankers threaten such forecasts.

But on Friday, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said he favors just a quarter-point hike on Feb. 1, when the central bank gives its next interest rate policy update. Waller also said that rates are already high enough to be slowing the economy. The remarks could have helped calm rising-rate worries in the market.

“It’s important when you hear Federal Reserve members endorsing that,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.

Gains for tech-oriented stocks accounted for a big share of the S&P 500′s rally Friday. Google’s parent company said it was cutting costs by laying off 12,000 workers, and Netflix reported a surge in its number of subscribers.

Netflix’s surprising report late Thursday helped set the stage for Friday’s rally, because the market had feared the streaming service’s latest results would be disappointing and fuel worries about weaker earnings overall, said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

“When they started rocketing, then all the Nasdaq started moving, and that moves the S&P and everything else follows,” Hatfield said.

Alphabet rose 5.3% after becoming the latest Big Tech company to acknowledge it expanded too quickly in recent years amid a boom created by the pandemic. Netflix jumped 8.5%.

Cruise lines also notched gains. Carnival rose 3.5%, Norwegian Cruise Lines climbed 4.5% and Royal Caribbean added 3.6%.

Also influencing the market on Friday: the expiration of $797 billion in stock-option contracts. That’s the largest amount for single stock options since January 2022 and the fourth-largest on record, according to Goldman Sachs.

Treasury yields mostly rose, clawing back drops from earlier in the week driven by worries about a weakening economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans, rose to 3.48% from 3.40% late Thursday.

The two-year yield, which tends to more closely track expectations for Fed action, rose to 4.19% from 4.13%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 73.76 points to 3,972.61. The Dow gained 330.93 points to 33,375.49. The Nasdaq added 288.17 points to close at 11,140.43.

Small company stocks also notched solid gains. The Russell 2000 index rose 30.99 points, or 1.7%, to finish at 1,867.34.

Stock markets overseas mostly made modest gains.

The Nikkei 225 added 0.6% after Japan reported that its consumer inflation rate hit 4% in December, its highest level in 41 years. The high reading may add to pressures on the Bank of Japan to alter its longstanding policy of keeping its key interest rate at an ultra-low level of minus 0.1%. But economists expect price pressures to ease in coming months as inflation elsewhere declines.

ALMOST A SEA OF GREEN BELOW

 

[farmerge]

Rally for tech stocks helps soften Wall Street's rough week

A rally for tech stocks applied some salve on Wall Street’s rough week, one dominated by worries about a weakening economy.

apnews.com

Rally for tech stocks helps soften Wall Street’s rough week​

By STAN CHOE and ALEX VEIGA

A rough week on Wall Street dominated by worries about a weakening economy ended Friday with a broad rally that gave the market its best day in two weeks.

The S&P 500 rose 1.9%. Despite the gains, the benchmark index still ended with its first weekly loss in the last three. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% and the Nasdaq composite closed 2.7% higher.

Technology and communication services stocks powered much of the gains as investors cheered another big quarterly surge in Netflix’s subscribers. Remarks from a Federal Reserve official also helped build hope among investors that the central bank may decide to slow its pace of interest rate hikes as soon as next month.

The major indexes started the week in the red largely because of worries that the economy may not be able to avoid a scarring recession. Several reports on the economy came in weaker than expected, as the full weight of the Federal Reserve’s hikes to interest rates last year start to make their way through the system.

Not long ago, bad news on the economy was often perversely good news for Wall Street. That’s because investors took it to mean the Fed may ease up on its rate hikes. But bad news on the economy is increasingly becoming bad news for Wall Street, too, which is worrying more about the prospects of a serious recession.

Making things more complicated, several Fed officials through the week kept pounding the message that they’ll likely hike rates further and then hold them there a while to make sure the nation’s high inflation is really crushed. Even though inflation has begun to slow, upward pressure remains on it from a still-solid U.S. jobs market and other factors.

Many investors on Wall Street came into this week already forecasting a modest or short recession, but they also were hoping rate cuts by the Fed later this year could mean a rebound for markets. This week’s sour economic data and comments from central bankers threaten such forecasts.

But on Friday, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said he favors just a quarter-point hike on Feb. 1, when the central bank gives its next interest rate policy update. Waller also said that rates are already high enough to be slowing the economy. The remarks could have helped calm rising-rate worries in the market.

“It’s important when you hear Federal Reserve members endorsing that,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.

Gains for tech-oriented stocks accounted for a big share of the S&P 500′s rally Friday. Google’s parent company said it was cutting costs by laying off 12,000 workers, and Netflix reported a surge in its number of subscribers.

Netflix’s surprising report late Thursday helped set the stage for Friday’s rally, because the market had feared the streaming service’s latest results would be disappointing and fuel worries about weaker earnings overall, said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

“When they started rocketing, then all the Nasdaq started moving, and that moves the S&P and everything else follows,” Hatfield said.

Alphabet rose 5.3% after becoming the latest Big Tech company to acknowledge it expanded too quickly in recent years amid a boom created by the pandemic. Netflix jumped 8.5%.

Cruise lines also notched gains. Carnival rose 3.5%, Norwegian Cruise Lines climbed 4.5% and Royal Caribbean added 3.6%.

Also influencing the market on Friday: the expiration of $797 billion in stock-option contracts. That’s the largest amount for single stock options since January 2022 and the fourth-largest on record, according to Goldman Sachs.

Treasury yields mostly rose, clawing back drops from earlier in the week driven by worries about a weakening economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans, rose to 3.48% from 3.40% late Thursday.

The two-year yield, which tends to more closely track expectations for Fed action, rose to 4.19% from 4.13%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 73.76 points to 3,972.61. The Dow gained 330.93 points to 33,375.49. The Nasdaq added 288.17 points to close at 11,140.43.

Small company stocks also notched solid gains. The Russell 2000 index rose 30.99 points, or 1.7%, to finish at 1,867.34.

Stock markets overseas mostly made modest gains.

The Nikkei 225 added 0.6% after Japan reported that its consumer inflation rate hit 4% in December, its highest level in 41 years. The high reading may add to pressures on the Bank of Japan to alter its longstanding policy of keeping its key interest rate at an ultra-low level of minus 0.1%. But economists expect price pressures to ease in coming months as inflation elsewhere declines.

ALMOST A SEA OF GREEN BELOW
View attachment 151949


View attachment 151947
View attachment 151948

Perhaps a promising start for Monday on the "follow the leader" ASX

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Perhaps a promising start for Monday on the "follow the leader" ASX

We hope so .... ASX futures were up 34 points or 0.46 per cent to 7428 overnight

 

[farmerge]

We hope so .... ASX futures were up 34 points or 0.46 per cent to 7428 overnight

Ah Dona we can only hope and keep on hoping!!!!!!!

 

[bigdog]

Market Watch

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Monday following a strong finish to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 34 points or 0.45% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 1%,the S&P 500 rose 1.9%, and the NASDAQ jumped 2.65%.