Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NWT - Newsat Limited

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Junior said:
Who is currently following this stock? Would be keen to see some TA from someone more proficient than myself.

A couple of important announcements this week, contracts signed for construction and launch of the first satellite, due for launch in 2014. Their market cap is now over $100mill and the next major step is to secure funding in order to see construction and launch. One of their major goals for 2012 is to increase market cap for inclusion in the ASX200.

I would expect a large cap raising within a few months...
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The chart doesn't look too bad imo. A tight high flag is formed waiting for a breakout.

Fundamentally I only follow this casually, but it looks like the satellites are aligned :)... As you said a capital raising is definitely on the card. However it may actually prove positive to the company as they move closer to having some real revenue generating operations.
 
20111209 NWT.PNG

Forgot to attached the chart. Volume is wrong because of the 1:50 consolidation in Oct.
 
Pre-launch contracts keep on rolling in.

Time to take a posi here I think.


...... oh don't you love that. "Insufficient funds in your account". Try again Monday.
 
It will get very interesting for this company in the coming weeks... expecting an announcement regarding financing for the launch of Jabiru-1. If they successfully receive low cost finance from the banks, I would expect a real breakout in the SP. Currently trading at 70 cents which is a 4 month high.

If they receive funding and proceed with the launch of this first satellite, it may lead to another 10 satellites in the works...it's a big story. Potential involvement in the NBN is another issue for the company.

Adrian Ballantine (CEO) recently interviewed on Sky Business: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkNNGyAepnk&feature=related
 
SP suddenly jumped 8% in late trade with good volume coming through in the last hour and at close. Still waiting on an announcement regarding the success or failure of an application for finance via the US Export-Import bank to fund construction and launch of Jabiru-1. The deadline is late June, so it could be any day now.

The ex-im bank usually release an agenda every Tuesday, listing what will be discussed at their weekly meetings. This week an agenda has not appeared on the website. I believe a meeting is scheduled....could this be the week? Some traders think so.
 
Hmmm, acting like an oil company digging a wildcat well.
You might want to sell on the fact.
 
Knobby22 said:
Hmmm, acting like an oil company digging a wildcat well.
You might want to sell on the fact.
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Do you mean if/when finance is approved, sell? Or sell now?

If J-1 is successful they would be looking to send another 10 satellites up. If they make progress on selling pre-launch contracts for the next raft of satellites there's no telling what could happen to this stock.

It also really depends how these things are funded. If they cap raise with o/s investors/institutions and cause huge dilution, then the SP will really be restricted.
 
Sell on the announcement, or shortly thereafter. You shoiuld get a chance to buy in cheaper.
Just my opinion.

The CEO has done a good job and kept out of debt but to do this he has paid many people in shares.
I think his behaviour is worth watching. Capital will still be required so dilution is very likely.
 
Knobby22 said:
Sell on the announcement, or shortly thereafter. You shoiuld get a chance to buy in cheaper.
Just my opinion.

The CEO has done a good job and kept out of debt but to do this he has paid many people in shares.
I think his behaviour is worth watching. Capital will still be required so dilution is very likely.
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I must admit, the main aspect of this stock that worries me, is AB's character/personality. Not sure where existing shareholders rank in his priorities. And how closely aligned what he says and what he intends to do, are.
 
Junior said:
I must admit, the main aspect of this stock that worries me, is AB's character/personality. Not sure where existing shareholders rank in his priorities. And how closely aligned what he says and what he intends to do, are.
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He did get the company through a very bad period in a smart way unlike say MetalStorm. I think he is a smart guy but as you say how much he looks after shareholders is yet to be discovered.

I am looking to buy in when I feel a bit more confident that he has the company on a safe footing. His interest in obtaining more shares in the company will also affect my attitude. I like companies like this with a lot of blue sky.
 
Well... things are heating up here. Ex-im bank agenda for this week's meeting includes discussion of finance for Newsat, so we could have a major announcement tomorrow morning. See agenda here: ex-im agenda

Additionally another customer signed this morning for $30mill. Except this time payment is IN ADVANCE and expected within 30 days. This is surprising, a couple of these contracts will reduce the need for a capital raising. $30 mill in cash is significant!
 
Keep this stock on your watchlist, could explode next week!


Dear Sir,
NEWSAT LIMITED TRADING HALT REQUEST

Pursuant to Listing Rule 17.1, NewSat Limited seeks a trading halt with immediate effect pending a material announcement in relation to funding for the Jabiru-1 satellite project (Announcement).

NewSat requests that the trading halt continue until the earlier of NewSat making the Announcement or the commencement of trade on Monday 18 June 2012. NewSat expects that the Announcement will be made prior to the commencement of trade on 18 June 2012.

NewSat is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted.
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This is a great case of sell the news. Opened at 83c now no one wants them at 75c.

Funding is basically there but looks like cashflow isn't going to come in until 2014? Market is pretty impatient most of the time...
 
I'm astonished NWT is lower today. The bad news is that ex-im funding is dependant on a $200mill cap raising, which is much larger than was expected.

The good news is that we have preliminary approval for loan of $280 million at 2%!! Also the satellite is now going to be bigger and projected to generate $3 billion of revenue over 15 years.
 
Just some manipulation Junior. Will probably finish the day green at the current rate! Insto picked up some bargains at 67.5.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Just some manipulation Junior. Will probably finish the day green at the current rate! Insto picked up some bargains at 67.5.
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Can you explain how an insto profit from this "manipulation"?

And once you explained the mechanism of how they can make a profit, can you explain how they "know" it will happen?

It really looks like some funds who don't like the equity component of the financing structure are offloading to those who didn't mind it... and those selling acted faster before the buyers showed up.
 
It's well known that traders get a bit antsy whenever there's a trading halt. So often in the past, stocks get sold off at resumption of trading, even if the ann is moderately positive in tone.

I believe Insto takes advantage of this known pattern and pushes a decent volume of stock into the bid side as it re-opens, then it snowballs on its own. If you sell 500,000 shares at an average of 80, then pick them up for an average of 70, there's your profit, all in a day.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
It's well known that traders get a bit antsy whenever there's a trading halt. So often in the past, stocks get sold off at resumption of trading, even if the ann is moderately positive in tone.

I believe Insto takes advantage of this known pattern and pushes a decent volume of stock into the bid side as it re-opens, then it snowballs on its own. If you sell 500,000 shares at an average of 80, then pick them up for an average of 70, there's your profit, all in a day.
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I refuse to believe this kind of manipulation can be consistently profitable.

500,000 is enough may be to scare a few retail holders, but you only need another insto who wants to buy to be there to soak up the mini-dump and you've just sold a chuck of shares on the cheap.

Unless all instos collude in this kind of operations - in which case they each made about $2 today which is an obvious waste of time.

I remember some time ago (>1 year) you pointed to some "manipulation" with a story of a fund manager telling a trainee to sell shares into their own bids... Do you remember what code it was? How did the price action pan out over time?
 
skc said:
I refuse to believe this kind of manipulation can be consistently profitable.

500,000 is enough may be to scare a few retail holders, but you only need another insto who wants to buy to be there to soak up the mini-dump and you've just sold a chuck of shares on the cheap.

Unless all instos collude in this kind of operations - in which case they each made about $2 today which is an obvious waste of time.

I remember some time ago (>1 year) you pointed to some "manipulation" with a story of a fund manager telling a trainee to sell shares into their own bids... Do you remember what code it was? How did the price action pan out over time?
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lol, yes I do remember that. Let me see if I can find it. The search feature on ASF isn't great.
 
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