NWH - NRW Holdings

galumay said:

Tell me again about the Efficient Market Hypothesis! $NWH down 12% having posted a very solid half year and a clear explanation of the very small exposure to the One Steel issue.

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but from memory , ( i used to hold ) there have been several unexpected disappointments over the years with contracts , maybe long-term holders are getting punch-drunk

2 significant ones, the first was another case disproving EMH! It was my entry at 20c. There was another lesser issue with the WA rail contract but no real consequence there. I reckon its the opposite! Long term holders like myself just shake our heads with stuff like this, anyway, another opportunity to add or take a position. I have too big a position to be able to justify adding, and its hard when you are anchored at 20c!!

galumay said:

I have too big a position to be able to justify adding, and its hard when you are anchored at 20c!!

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i have a similar issue elsewhere , so you really need a compelling drop , BUT on the upside you are sitting on an unrealized profit ... life could be worse

Oh indeed!

Market Matters commentary this afternoon:

NRW Holding Group (NWH)

NWH –9.28%: Resumed trading today after a 7-day suspension, posting a mixed half-yearly result Friday afternoon, also announcing they are owed ~$113m by Onesteel Manufacturing for works completed, which operate the Whyalla Steelworks that was recently placed into administration by the S.A government.

1H25 revenue $1.65bn vs. $1.61bn consensus
1H25 earnings $188 million vs. $196m consensus
Dividend per share $0.07 vs. $0.09 consensus
The stock has been hit twofold with the market trying to factor in the softer earnings result combined with the risk of a Whyalla collapse and the potential default to its creditors – said to be $1bn in total. NWH announced they had negotiated first ranking amongst creditors, with guarantees over Onesteel associated companies, not to mention Anthony Albanese has committed to a joint government bailout worth $2.4bn for the steel business.

With this in mind, we see don’t see an outsized risk of losing the owed revenue, though the negotiations did result in extending contracted services and payment until Jan 2026, so the likely implication is the revenue falls into FY26. Regardless, management upgraded revenue guidance to $3.2bn-$3.3bn up from $3.1bn so all things considered we think there is solid value at these levels.

NWH
MM is cautiously bullish NWH

Again with the consensus nonsense, surely everyone knows by now that brokers and analysts always get these predictions incorrect? Why not just rely on the company's guidance? It may not be correct either, but at least they know what their actual financials are, unlike the brokers and analysts just numberwanging into the wind!!

Please stop

Ok, but I really want to go on.

galumay said:

Again with the consensus nonsense, surely everyone knows by now that brokers and analysts always get these predictions incorrect?

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not ALWAYS , but it is always wise to have a plan for IF they are ( incorrect )

i look at such predictions and ask myself 'will the share price move ' IF it does what strategy will i use

ALSO many of these brokers ( and analysts ) release these reports to high net-worth clients days/weeks before the public can see them , so the retail folk are always riding coat-tails not the horse ( and not in the first class carriage either )

many of us see the market data on a 20 minute delay , after you get used to accepting you are working with stale data/news you can get comfortable with setting target prices early and let the market come to you ( if fate wills it so ) , if you miss out there another opportunity will arrive in due course