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NWC - New World Resources

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Dona Ferentes said:
night => day; run-up => TH.
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Yeah it often seems that way DF

They have around $8 mill left in the bank but they look to have some serious Copper to dig out of the ground

They will need plenty of cash to do that but it looks a nice deposit at a glance

At least they are raising at the right time after a healthy rise. VWAP should see the CR at around 10 cents at a guess
 
After having been battered along with the rest of the small cap mining sector recently, NWC is showing signs of having bottomed at 3c, at least for now.

The Scoping Study Results for the Antler Copper Project in Arizona USA was announced early last week and "a potential pathway to a low-impact, modest-CAPEX, high-margin underground-mining development has been identified." A follow up PFS has already been commenced in order to further optimise project development. The PFS is expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2023.

Not making any claims about NWC other than support at 3c is holding and the company appears detemined to progress the Antler Project as quickly as possible. Worth keeping an eye on IMO.
 
Has closed the gap.
Where to from here?

Screenshot_20220809-215320.png
 
I found the headline 'best ever drill results' pretty funny.
1665538229213.png

Market cap around $65 million with a greater than 4% CuEq deposit. Down to $4 million cash as of last quarter + $8 million raised in July means they're probably down to $6-7 million right now as I think they're still drilling. Probably needing another raising early in the new year and I'm not sure what the catalyst will be to juice up the SP before then. If this was in regional Western Australia I would consider investing, but my concern would be that this is America and American NIMBYs and eco-terrorists might make this project unviable.

Below is from the scoping study they did - What I liked is that they show the cost per tonne forecast - It's not quite apples to apples but it gives you an indication of the 'cost' of mining underground - at which point you can work backwards to determine the revenue per tonne you need to be achieving and use it as a benchmark when looking at other mines/producers. 4% copper is about 88 lbs/tonne or about $300USD/tonne at today's price. In my mind that's a good margin. The 2nd image is a cross section of the mine showing essentially the revenue per tonne by mining area superimposed on the latest drill results (Note - I may not have got the scale correct).

My gut feeling is that the IRR would have been greater than 50% looking at that picture - but from the scoping study it's only 42% pre-tax - so maybe 35% post-tax and metal prices have declined vs USD so their scoping study will be overcalling IRR/NPV/Revenue right now. Might be some good upside at the lower section of the mine - but it looks like it would be at the end of the mine life and have minimal impact on NPV due to discounting. Anyways might revisit this one in a few months.

1665536304012.png

1665537774725.png
 
Arrgh, don't remind me. I bought the earlier HVBB (blue arrows), took the loss and ignored the next one.

nwc3001b.PNG
 
Some factors that give me comfort around NWC;
  • Antler project is in friendly jurisdiction; NW Arizona
  • To add to the appeal of the location; it's near infrastructure and the cost to get operational is not prohibitive
  • Copper prices have macro tailwinds driving prices up in the near term
  • Paradice Investment Management has meaningful position
  • Management have experience in USA
 
seekingalpha.com

Trident Royalties enters royalty purchase agreement with New World Resources

Trident Royalties enters agreement with New World Resources to acquire a net smelter return royalty on metal production from Antler Copper Project in...
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com
  • Trident Royalties (OTCQX:TDTRF) enters binding royalty purchase agreement with ASX-listed New World Resources to acquire a net smelter return royalty on all metal production from New World's flagship Antler Copper Project, a copper-zinc polymetallic deposit located in Arizona, USA.
  • Trident will pay A$11 million (approx. US$7 million) in cash for the Royalty.
 
Pre feas from a couple of weeks ago came back with an irr of just barely 30% after tax. 300 million capex USD might be reasonable. Low $2 a pound US all in costs might be reasonable.

It's not terrible although the share price was destroyed. But you got to ask yourself if you want to develop a mine and you've got $450 million Australian - would you invest it here in this project with the Americans going the way they're going? Or would you throw it on a gold mining project somewhere that probably has a better irr and is probably an open pit and probably just easier to deal with?

Or if you're American and have connections to politicians wouldn't you rather throw it on some sort of battery metal rare Earth strategic project that you can con on the government into funding?

With a market cap of 50 million the company is in a terrible position. And I can't see what is going to change between now and another 12 to 18 months before DFS comes out. I keep saying I'll wait for the next capital raising but every time that capital raising comes I have a little bit of Doubt so I'll say it again... Maybe I'll wait for the next capital raising
 

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