NVT - Navitas Limited

[Ves]

Re: NVT - Navitas

SAE missed earnings expectations, hopefully this is temporary but I do not understand this side of the business enough to be sure.

Thanks for the article; a good read and a perspective that I hadn't come across.

I think my main point is it is too early to tell whether the amount they paid for SAE was under / equal / over an intrinsic value. I think the license they gained from the acquisition will be handy over the long-term with their expansion into new frontier markets.

 

[coinemas]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Now its chinese student being bashed,, and bad publicity for Australian Education once again.
In the midst of strong AUD and declining number of International student, there has been a call to cap the no of student.


http://www.theage.com.au/national/chinese-students-at-risk-in-australia-20120426-1xn5v.html


and

"Gloom with glimpses of light in latest student figures "
BY: BERNARD LANE From: The Australian April 27, 2012 1:58PM
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SOME universities are in for a tough year with official figures showing the downturn in the number of new overseas students has deepened.

In the year to March, higher education commencements fell six per cent to 52,101, according to Australian Education International. (The key China market was down 6.9 per cent.) "

 

[ROE]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Now its chinese student being bashed,, and bad publicity for Australian Education once again.
In the midst of strong AUD and declining number of International student, there has been a call to cap the no of student.


http://www.theage.com.au/national/chinese-students-at-risk-in-australia-20120426-1xn5v.html


and

"Gloom with glimpses of light in latest student figures "
BY: BERNARD LANE From: The Australian April 27, 2012 1:58PM
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SOME universities are in for a tough year with official figures showing the downturn in the number of new overseas students has deepened.

In the year to March, higher education commencements fell six per cent to 52,101, according to Australian Education International. (The key China market was down 6.9 per cent.) "

It happen every where, where there is international students, it is not a problem only in Australia. US, UK all has this sort of incident once in a while

it just happen to be an international student.

People wont stop sending there kids to Australia or other place because of one or two incidents ...it has to be a wide spread thing.....

Most of this stuff doesnt even register on people I know in Asia if they want to send their kids here..

but fear is always good for solid stocks

Students enrollment up and down is normal...some years you get it good other years you get less people as long as it not a one way street down...

 

[coinemas]

Re: NVT - Navitas

well, it looks like this time it might be a one way street down.. It has been down 2 yrs in a row so far...

Government must do something to protect one of Austraila's biggest export from falling down ....


Australia latest: decline continues, big China drop
Posted on Apr 30, 2012 by Dan Thomas
Posted in Immigration, News, under Australasia.
Tagged with Australia.
Bookmark the permalink.
Australia’s international education malaise looks set to continue, according to new international enrolment data from Australian Education International (AEI). However, the English language teaching sector has avoided a repeat of the the major slide it saw last year, but key market China declined further.
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About Dan Thomas
Dan Thomas previously worked as a freelance finance and culture journalist. He has also worked in communications in the international education industry.
HE saw commencements from the Indian market climb 27.3%
Across the education sector, course commencements fell by 7.2% to 117,136 in the year to March 2012. Particularly worrying was the accelerating decline in higher education, where commencements fell 6% to 52,101 compared with 2% in the year to March 2011.
Vocational education and training commencements also fell 8.3% to 29,627. However, the Elicos (English language intensive courses for overseas students) sector’s drop of 5.6% to 21,224 , compared with -22% last year, has been called a recovery by some observers.
Executive director of English Australia, Sue Blundell explained: “The Higher Education student ‘pipeline’ is longer than the Elicos sector which means that they are usually the last to see declines whereas [our sector] sees declines first but also sees the return to growth first as well.”
However, she saw no evidence of a rapid turnaround. “Whilst the [English language] decline seems to have slowed, I would be alarmed if it hadn’t as it couldn’t continue at the rate it had been falling. It is important to remember that the percentage decline for YTD March is a further decline on top of declining numbers in previous years,” she said.
Stable numbers of visitor visa holders and increasing numbers of working holiday visa holders was “good news”
AEI said enrolments (as opposed to course commencements) across all sectors had declined by 8.5% to 351,878, with striking falls from India, down 25%, Nepal 14.6%, and Sri Lanka 14.6%.
There were some success stories: HE saw commencements from the Indian market climb 27.3%, although this followed the huge tail-off caused by attacks on Indians in Australia and resulting bad press in 2010.
In the Elicos sector, Colombia climbed 11.7% to 1,637 following a 10.5% fall last year. However, the Chinese market – the sector’s largest student source – declined by a concerning 21.3% and current bad press around attacks on Chinese students won’t help.
On balance, Blundell said she was pessimistic about the country’s English language sector’s prospects given the decline in longer term student visa holders who generate the majority of the sector’s revenue.
However, she said the stable numbers of visitor visa holders and increasing numbers of working holiday and other visa holders was “good news”, having ”somewhat mitigated the decline in student visa holders”.

 

[Muschu]

Re: NVT - Navitas

NVT has had a good ride since it's plummet to $2.87 or thereabouts. I think this must be because some investors consider "education" a defensive area - and perhaps it is.

However NVT's progress is totally dependent on student enrolments. Since their poor annual report I have seen no evidence of increases that warrant the SP gains.

I don't hold NVT at this time and don't plan to at this time.

 

[coinemas]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Lets face the facts that the number of international students are now in declining trend. It may take many years to recover ( if at all ) in my opinion.

An education agent that i know with offices in Aus and overseas has recently down sizing the number of their branches.

With the introduction of skill select migration scheme recently, student who wants to apply PR must wait to be invited, if no invitation that means no PR . There is no certainty any more.

in my opinion Visa streamline is only to make student easier to apply student visa. It wont help if there is no certainty if they can apply PR after study. We all know most student comes to aus to study with intention to apply PR later.

declining number of international students will also affect the property market as we are now witnessing.

 

[coinemas]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Latest statistics on International students in Australia.

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/study/_pdf/student-visa-program-report-2012-03-31.pdf


It shows declining of Offshore student visa application. Which in my opinion is the most accurate measure of trend, rather than measuring onshore student visa application, which my be double counted ie. the same student already in australia is applying to extend his student visa onshore for further study.

 

[robusta]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Latest statistics on International students in Australia.

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/study/_pdf/student-visa-program-report-2012-03-31.pdf


It shows declining of Offshore student visa application. Which in my opinion is the most accurate measure of trend, rather than measuring onshore student visa application, which my be double counted ie. the same student already in australia is applying to extend his student visa onshore for further study.

Will be interesting to see what happens to these numbers when the visa issues are fixed.

 

[JTLP]

Re: NVT - Navitas

This thing has absolutely rocketed to $4.48 from the flat earnings and low of the terrible $2's. I thought it would have stayed down there but obviously not - and it appears the high AUD isn't deterring punters.

I wonder what's driving this? Thoughts?

 

[robusta]

Re: NVT - Navitas

This thing has absolutely rocketed to $4.48 from the flat earnings and low of the terrible $2's. I thought it would have stayed down there but obviously not - and it appears the high AUD isn't deterring punters.

I wonder what's driving this? Thoughts?

I think these guys have a very bright future with a decent growing dividend yield. Strange 3% fall in the price today however, maybe people are taking profits? I will continue to hold

 

[Muschu]

Re: NVT - Navitas

To my knowledge the SP has risen since a poor report and on the back of no good news. I suspect the stock is seen as defensive. However they'll need an outstanding report, imo, to maintain the current price.
Just my view.
Rick

-- not holding and have not for quite a long time.

 

[skc]

Re: NVT - Navitas

To my knowledge the SP has risen since a poor report and on the back of no good news. I suspect the stock is seen as defensive. However they'll need an outstanding report, imo, to maintain the current price.

+1. The valuation is now pretty stretched unless one is confident of them having turned things around. A flat EPS reported will the share price re-adjust to much lower levels imo.

 

[ROE]

Re: NVT - Navitas

competitive advantages business with reliable cash flow and earning will command a premium in this sort of market

also government reports coming out recently gearing Australia toward the next 15 years gaining more skill workers with degrees and they changing policy to reflect that so it all bold extremely well for NVT for the next decade.

price run because someone probably has access to this information before you do

 

[robusta]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Had a bit of a laugh to myself today, I like to read the market preview on Google news, anyway this morning noticed UBS upgraded NVT to outperform before the open.

I will just continue to hold.

Sp down about 10% today.

 

[skc]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Had a bit of a laugh to myself today, I like to read the market preview on Google news, anyway this morning noticed UBS upgraded NVT to outperform before the open.

I will just continue to hold.

Sp down about 10% today.

Very surprised that the announcement wasn't even marked market sensitive. They did say that the guidance is maintained as they made more money overseas to cover the lack of enrolment in Australia.

 

[Ves]

Re: NVT - Navitas

As a holder you have to decide whether this is short-term noise or if it has long-term implications (that threaten the strength of the business model).

I have certainly seen worse announcements so far this year from other companies.

 

[robusta]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Just noise, a bit surprised by the reaction, maybe it was enough of a movement to hit a heap of stop losses

 

[coinemas]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Just noise, a bit surprised by the reaction, maybe it was enough of a movement to hit a heap of stop losses

From the anns :

A significant number of applicants for which Confirmation of Enrolments had been
issued have experienced delays in receiving their visa due to pressures arising from
the newly implemented Streamlined Visa Processing arrangements. The majority of
these students have therefore deferred into 201203.

and then

" Navitas therefore
remains confident that a return to positive growth in Australian enrolments in key
offshore source markets is eventuating as a result of greater sector stability established
from Knight Review changes "


So knight review is good or bad?

 

[Ves]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Good or bad?

Read what they wrote again. Those statements do not contradict each other if you are implying that. One refers to a temporary delay (caused from the changes) and the other refers to its on-going effect after the initial delays have been cleared.

A better question is; does this matter? Is legislation like this ever permanent? They are forever changing the rules in most industries, yet some companies are still able to perform regardless of the changes. It is best to look for the reason for that.

 

[coinemas]

Re: NVT - Navitas

Interesting to see what is market reaction when NVT issue their result early next week. Previous experience thought us that NVT has been too overly optimistic and SP dive after result is announced.