NVT - Navitas Limited
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Re: NVT - Navitas
An excerpt from a pres release last week for anyone interested:
ASX Release
31 March 2010
RECENT COLLEGE START-UPS DRIVE FIRST SEMESTER ENROLMENTS TO
RECORD LEVELS
Global education services provider, Navitas Limited (ASX: NVT) today
announced a 16% increase in student enrolments for the first semester of 2010
(“201001”).
Equivalent full time student unit (“EFTSU”) enrolments at the University Programs
existing colleges increased to a first semester record of 17,811, up from 15,419
in the previous corresponding period (“pcp”).
Navitas Chief Executive Officer Rod Jones said enrolments across the Company’s
22 colleges reiterated the success of its University Programs educational model
and reinforced the strong outlook afforded by planned new colleges in growth
markets.
“Our proven business model has seen new colleges consistently move to
profitability within short periods, due to low capital requirements and strong
enrolments,” he said.
“This has been evidenced by the performance of two of our most recent start-ups
in the UK, which more than doubled their enrolments, and continuing growth in
other emerging colleges such as Curtin Singapore.
“And, as past performance shows, these colleges go on to perform consistently
and provide a strong revenue base for the Company’s growth.”
Mr Jones said the rapid maturation of the Colleges, as evidenced by the
enrolment figures, gave the Company confidence in its next growth phase. A
significant contributor to this will be the pipeline of 6 new colleges that will open
in 2010 and FY11, following the recent execution of partnership agreements in
the USA, UK and Australia.
“Our business model is founded on driving revenue through offering high quality
education programs in partnership with leading universities in markets where we
operate,” said Mr Jones.
“These latest enrolment figures underline the success of that strategy – the
ability to offer a very high quality education service and at the same time
generate satisfactory returns for our investors.”
“With our recently announced colleges to be opened in FY11, and a number of
other new college agreements expected to be completed in the near term, we expect to see continued double digit enrolment growth in our University Programs ito the future,” said Mr Jones.
An excerpt from a pres release last week for anyone interested:
ASX Release
31 March 2010
RECENT COLLEGE START-UPS DRIVE FIRST SEMESTER ENROLMENTS TO
RECORD LEVELS
Global education services provider, Navitas Limited (ASX: NVT) today
announced a 16% increase in student enrolments for the first semester of 2010
(“201001”).
Equivalent full time student unit (“EFTSU”) enrolments at the University Programs
existing colleges increased to a first semester record of 17,811, up from 15,419
in the previous corresponding period (“pcp”).
Navitas Chief Executive Officer Rod Jones said enrolments across the Company’s
22 colleges reiterated the success of its University Programs educational model
and reinforced the strong outlook afforded by planned new colleges in growth
markets.
“Our proven business model has seen new colleges consistently move to
profitability within short periods, due to low capital requirements and strong
enrolments,” he said.
“This has been evidenced by the performance of two of our most recent start-ups
in the UK, which more than doubled their enrolments, and continuing growth in
other emerging colleges such as Curtin Singapore.
“And, as past performance shows, these colleges go on to perform consistently
and provide a strong revenue base for the Company’s growth.”
Mr Jones said the rapid maturation of the Colleges, as evidenced by the
enrolment figures, gave the Company confidence in its next growth phase. A
significant contributor to this will be the pipeline of 6 new colleges that will open
in 2010 and FY11, following the recent execution of partnership agreements in
the USA, UK and Australia.
“Our business model is founded on driving revenue through offering high quality
education programs in partnership with leading universities in markets where we
operate,” said Mr Jones.
“These latest enrolment figures underline the success of that strategy – the
ability to offer a very high quality education service and at the same time
generate satisfactory returns for our investors.”
“With our recently announced colleges to be opened in FY11, and a number of
other new college agreements expected to be completed in the near term, we expect to see continued double digit enrolment growth in our University Programs ito the future,” said Mr Jones.
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Re: NVT - Navitas
ROE (am i calling you by your financial ratio correctly?)
very happy with the results, can't see much in the way of shenanigans (have not looked too closely yet), noticed that the margin is stronger this year, I thought NVT might begin to slow now, but it seems that they are in the middle of their growth phase which is great!
ROE (am i calling you by your financial ratio correctly?)
very happy with the results, can't see much in the way of shenanigans (have not looked too closely yet), noticed that the margin is stronger this year, I thought NVT might begin to slow now, but it seems that they are in the middle of their growth phase which is great!
Re: NVT - Navitas
and the good news is: from now on the more Uni it sign up the fatter the margins....
yeah I like my nick name, I created to remind me why I made 2 fail investment starting out and vouch not to make the same mistake again...
along the way I learn a lot and work out how to pick up good business and the rest is history
business that dont meet my rules I discard with Prejudice....but every now and then greed do tempt me and I break the rule and make a crab investment like NUF hoping for quick bucks
I still have hope some day someone can still make a bid for NUF and I get my $5.94 return to me and hopefully I dont pay too much for that mistake...
till then live and learn and enjoy life
and the good news is: from now on the more Uni it sign up the fatter the margins....
yeah I like my nick name, I created to remind me why I made 2 fail investment starting out and vouch not to make the same mistake again...
along the way I learn a lot and work out how to pick up good business and the rest is history
business that dont meet my rules I discard with Prejudice....but every now and then greed do tempt me and I break the rule and make a crab investment like NUF hoping for quick bucks
I still have hope some day someone can still make a bid for NUF and I get my $5.94 return to me and hopefully I dont pay too much for that mistake...
till then live and learn and enjoy life
Re: NVT - Navitas
Hi ROE & all...
How do you feel about the current state of NVT?
It posted a 31% profit increase on 03/10/10 - but since then has been on the slippery slope down to a close of $3.75 today.
They had a bit of a write up in the AFR today - trending down yadi yada and also some other issues with the strength of the AUD and the dwindling numbers of students coming to Australia to study (separate article).
I don't know if the second point is too material to NVT but saw it valid.
Comments?
and the good news is: from now on the more Uni it sign up the fatter the margins....
yeah I like my nick name, I created to remind me why I made 2 fail investment starting out and vouch not to make the same mistake again...
along the way I learn a lot and work out how to pick up good business and the rest is history
business that dont meet my rules I discard with Prejudice....but every now and then greed do tempt me and I break the rule and make a crab investment like NUF hoping for quick bucks
I still have hope some day someone can still make a bid for NUF and I get my $5.94 return to me and hopefully I dont pay too much for that mistake...
till then live and learn and enjoy life
Hi ROE & all...
How do you feel about the current state of NVT?
It posted a 31% profit increase on 03/10/10 - but since then has been on the slippery slope down to a close of $3.75 today.
They had a bit of a write up in the AFR today - trending down yadi yada and also some other issues with the strength of the AUD and the dwindling numbers of students coming to Australia to study (separate article).
I don't know if the second point is too material to NVT but saw it valid.
Comments?
Re: NVT - Navitas
"University hit by drop in foreign student numbers" on Inside Business today.
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2010/s3040409.htm
"University hit by drop in foreign student numbers" on Inside Business today.
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2010/s3040409.htm
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Thanks for that link chansw, one would think that the bottom for NVT is still some time away, the falling SP and potential to get in at a great price has sparked up my interest.
Has anyone got a currency breakdown of there revenue.?
Thanks for that link chansw, one would think that the bottom for NVT is still some time away, the falling SP and potential to get in at a great price has sparked up my interest.
Has anyone got a currency breakdown of there revenue.?
Re: NVT - Navitas
Never fear when you buy good business with increase earning and dividend payout when it go low enough you double up....
I do this all the time..
double up WWA during GFC when it trade at $1.67
double up CAB when it go to 4.44
double up CCV when it 40 cents, double up again recently at 58 or 60.
double up FLT when it was 5.00
double up NVT when the time is right
and on and on it goes for many more decades to come...
there is a stock recently that I went all in
as initial holder cos price is too good.
still buying more as off today....but someone is noticing as well
and have a 5 green day straight regardless of the market condition...
up again today....
when the storm is over you get crazy dividend stream
and you go on holiday and sleep like a baby next financial
storm come around...
dont buy stuff if you cant sleep like a baby at night.
time will be your friends these business and in time
you will see the fruit of the seed you sow some years ago
not some short term price movement, leave that for the traders and the commentators
Enjoy life and relax
Never fear when you buy good business with increase earning and dividend payout when it go low enough you double up....
I do this all the time..
double up WWA during GFC when it trade at $1.67
double up CAB when it go to 4.44
double up CCV when it 40 cents, double up again recently at 58 or 60.
double up FLT when it was 5.00
double up NVT when the time is right
and on and on it goes for many more decades to come...
there is a stock recently that I went all in
as initial holder cos price is too good.
still buying more as off today....but someone is noticing as well
and have a 5 green day straight regardless of the market condition...
up again today....
when the storm is over you get crazy dividend stream
and you go on holiday and sleep like a baby next financial
storm come around...
dont buy stuff if you cant sleep like a baby at night.
time will be your friends these business and in time
you will see the fruit of the seed you sow some years ago
not some short term price movement, leave that for the traders and the commentators
Enjoy life and relax
skc
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Warren Buffet said "The best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return"
NVT does have a high rate of return of invested capital (ROE= ~61%) but it does not have the ability to reinvest that capital to give shareholders the value of compounding. (look at the payout ratio for the last 5 years, 107%, 100%, 101%, 100%, 104%.)
This to me makes the business worth less than a business with a lower ROE but also ability to retain capital (lower payout ratio) and maintain a satisfactory ROE on that retained capital. This sort of business becomes a "compounding machine" delivering strong capital growth with dividend growth to follow in due course. eg COH, CSL, FGE, MCE, FRI...
To do a quick back of the envelope valuation of NVT we can treat it a bit like a bond due to all the profits being paid out.
My required return is 10% (to compensate me for the risk of investing in equities)
NVT share price is about $3.70
Dividend yield = 5.2%
To achieve my RR of 10% need to pay no more than $1.85 - would prefer to pay a whole lot less so I have a margin of safety.
There goes another stock that does not tick all the boxes for me, the search continues....
Warren Buffet said "The best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return"
NVT does have a high rate of return of invested capital (ROE= ~61%) but it does not have the ability to reinvest that capital to give shareholders the value of compounding. (look at the payout ratio for the last 5 years, 107%, 100%, 101%, 100%, 104%.)
This to me makes the business worth less than a business with a lower ROE but also ability to retain capital (lower payout ratio) and maintain a satisfactory ROE on that retained capital. This sort of business becomes a "compounding machine" delivering strong capital growth with dividend growth to follow in due course. eg COH, CSL, FGE, MCE, FRI...
To do a quick back of the envelope valuation of NVT we can treat it a bit like a bond due to all the profits being paid out.
My required return is 10% (to compensate me for the risk of investing in equities)
NVT share price is about $3.70
Dividend yield = 5.2%
To achieve my RR of 10% need to pay no more than $1.85 - would prefer to pay a whole lot less so I have a margin of safety.
There goes another stock that does not tick all the boxes for me, the search continues....
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Re: NVT - Navitas
robusta, dude seriously who gives a toss what Warren or Roger or UBS think, the opportunity to buy NVT at $1.85 is long gone, the challenge before us now is to get in at the best price possible....of course assuming NVT is a business we want to own a piece of.
---------------
I've been thinking lately of the benefits of buying great stocks before the market recognises there great stocks and all the "value" nuts and fund managers jump on and pump up the price...i mean every stock Roger has rated at A1 started with a different rating.
Buying a stock that ticks all the boxes really means buying well after the best entry point...there's good money to be made buying stocks that will be great.
robusta, dude seriously who gives a toss what Warren or Roger or UBS think, the opportunity to buy NVT at $1.85 is long gone, the challenge before us now is to get in at the best price possible....of course assuming NVT is a business we want to own a piece of.
---------------
I've been thinking lately of the benefits of buying great stocks before the market recognises there great stocks and all the "value" nuts and fund managers jump on and pump up the price...i mean every stock Roger has rated at A1 started with a different rating.
Buying a stock that ticks all the boxes really means buying well after the best entry point...there's good money to be made buying stocks that will be great.
Re: NVT - Navitas
I do care about the lessons from Graham, Buffett and Montgomery because they teach me how to identify exceptional busineses and work out the intrinsic values for those businesses.
That is the great thing about the stock market I don't have to buy anything, every day I am quoted a new price on businesses I want to own. I can wait until all the boxes are ticked and only buy the best stocks for less than they are worth.
I wish you the best of luck in unearthing the next great stock before the market recognises it. Personally I think the best way of buying great stocks before the market recognises them is to be a "value" nut.
I do care about the lessons from Graham, Buffett and Montgomery because they teach me how to identify exceptional busineses and work out the intrinsic values for those businesses.
That is the great thing about the stock market I don't have to buy anything, every day I am quoted a new price on businesses I want to own. I can wait until all the boxes are ticked and only buy the best stocks for less than they are worth.
I wish you the best of luck in unearthing the next great stock before the market recognises it. Personally I think the best way of buying great stocks before the market recognises them is to be a "value" nut.
Re: NVT - Navitas
I have to agree with So_Cynical here and I respect your principles of buying great business but buying that sort of business at bargain price only exist in 2 scenarios
1. You understand the business and pick it up early before
people notice...like spend heaps of time going through
small caps annual reports and stocks...
2. There is a problems with the business and Market price it
to fail and you are absolutely sure in your judgment about the business and understand it enough to go against the market.
Pretty easy to punch keys on the computer and work out a number but it's a garbage in garbage out....
say you pricing a stock that prime for growth and it miss that growth target you are over paying for it...because all the calculation has been based on that rate....
But if you manage to do that without much hassle then you are on to something good and will be making exceptional return...
I have to agree with So_Cynical here and I respect your principles of buying great business but buying that sort of business at bargain price only exist in 2 scenarios
1. You understand the business and pick it up early before
people notice...like spend heaps of time going through
small caps annual reports and stocks...
2. There is a problems with the business and Market price it
to fail and you are absolutely sure in your judgment about the business and understand it enough to go against the market.
Pretty easy to punch keys on the computer and work out a number but it's a garbage in garbage out....
say you pricing a stock that prime for growth and it miss that growth target you are over paying for it...because all the calculation has been based on that rate....
But if you manage to do that without much hassle then you are on to something good and will be making exceptional return...
Re: NVT - Navitas
Sorry ROE but how about scenario 3 & 4
3. Top quality company has short term problem and market sentiment turns against it pushing SP below intrinsic value. eg CAB. (I wasn't smart enough to pick up this time, but next time with similar company will be ready). Looking at the CAB thread I am pretty sure you did not let the opportunity go past.
4. Macro economic factors. Look at any great business in the middle of GFC - bargains everywhere.
I have to agree with So_Cynical here and I respect your principles of buying great business but buying that sort of business at bargain price only exist in 2 scenarios
1. You understand the business and pick it up early before
people notice...like spend heaps of time going through
small caps annual reports and stocks...
2. There is a problems with the business and Market price it
to fail and you are absolutely sure in your judgment about the business and understand it enough to go against the market.
Pretty easy to punch keys on the computer and work out a number but it's a garbage in garbage out....
say you pricing a stock that prime for growth and it miss that growth target you are over paying for it...because all the calculation has been based on that rate....
But if you manage to do that without much hassle then you are on to something good and will be making exceptional return...
Sorry ROE but how about scenario 3 & 4
3. Top quality company has short term problem and market sentiment turns against it pushing SP below intrinsic value. eg CAB. (I wasn't smart enough to pick up this time, but next time with similar company will be ready). Looking at the CAB thread I am pretty sure you did not let the opportunity go past.
4. Macro economic factors. Look at any great business in the middle of GFC - bargains everywhere.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Re: NVT - Navitas
And after you have done all that number crunching and found your great stock, post up a 3 year chart of that great stock and ill be happy to point out where you should of brought it.
I do care what Roger and Warren think and say because these guys are smart and well Roger in particular has a way of looking at stocks that i don't give alot of consideration to...so its helpful to get that perspective.
And after you have done all that number crunching and found your great stock, post up a 3 year chart of that great stock and ill be happy to point out where you should of brought it.
I do care what Roger and Warren think and say because these guys are smart and well Roger in particular has a way of looking at stocks that i don't give alot of consideration to...so its helpful to get that perspective.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Yep agree
And yep agree....except CAB is not a good business, you guys tend to confuse was with is.
Yep agree
And yep agree....except CAB is not a good business, you guys tend to confuse was with is.
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Re: NVT - Navitas
I haven't been closely following NVT lately, so I apologize for ignorance, however one point that is quite important here is that NVT has been losing students in Australia. When they have highlighted enrollment numbers, it seems to be in their smaller markets overseas.
I think it is very important to note that the transferability of their business is successful, but it has been noted in the Aus Fin Review that about 80% (anyone read this?) of their current revenue comes from Australia and at the moment Australia is struggling with student numbers. This is the concern and what I think weighs on the stock currently.
What happens long term of course is different; but whilst watching a holding retreat 15 - 20 % whilst that money could be elsewhere is always a bit sad.
I think NVT is a good business and well run and it does seem that they have good promise, particularly in the overseas markets, so perhaps just a rough patch while Australia struggles...
Sorry long winded, just a bit of rubbish to kick around.
I haven't been closely following NVT lately, so I apologize for ignorance, however one point that is quite important here is that NVT has been losing students in Australia. When they have highlighted enrollment numbers, it seems to be in their smaller markets overseas.
I think it is very important to note that the transferability of their business is successful, but it has been noted in the Aus Fin Review that about 80% (anyone read this?) of their current revenue comes from Australia and at the moment Australia is struggling with student numbers. This is the concern and what I think weighs on the stock currently.
What happens long term of course is different; but whilst watching a holding retreat 15 - 20 % whilst that money could be elsewhere is always a bit sad.
I think NVT is a good business and well run and it does seem that they have good promise, particularly in the overseas markets, so perhaps just a rough patch while Australia struggles...
Sorry long winded, just a bit of rubbish to kick around.
Re: NVT - Navitas
But would you be confident to buy a business like CBA, WOW or MND in the middle of the GFC just looking at a chart? That would scare the crap out of me.
But if I knew MND worth $12.00 intrinsic value, sp = $6.00 that would give me some confidence.
But would you be confident to buy a business like CBA, WOW or MND in the middle of the GFC just looking at a chart? That would scare the crap out of me.
But if I knew MND worth $12.00 intrinsic value, sp = $6.00 that would give me some confidence.
