NVT - Navitas Limited
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Even at the current earnings multiple, this company seems to have some of the best from ASF buying/holding... I really have to check this out properly!
Have only had a superficial look at this point.
here we go I grabbed some more at 4.55FLT and CCP here we go again
Even at the current earnings multiple, this company seems to have some of the best from ASF buying/holding... I really have to check this out properly!
Have only had a superficial look at this point.
Re: NVT - Navitas
Listen to the audio recording where Rod Jones explain how student go about get into university and this is important and I to some extend know that already ... Most agents recommend students what Uni to go to ...
students usually rock up and say I want to go to Australia, US or UK
what are my options? just like FLT agents talking to would be holiday makers
No one has this agent network like NVT in education and if a lone university want to go against this network like Singapore airline with FLT some years ago, Singapore want to be cheeky and said we dont want to give you the commission higher than 5% as we can generate similar sale on our web site, wishful thinking, FLT said no pay the commission we want or go do it yourself
we know who won Singapore airline vs FLT ... FLT took them off the list of recommended flight, their ticket sale drop, Singapore came away with a bleeding nose.
Listen to the audio recording where Rod Jones explain how student go about get into university and this is important and I to some extend know that already ... Most agents recommend students what Uni to go to ...
students usually rock up and say I want to go to Australia, US or UK
what are my options? just like FLT agents talking to would be holiday makers
No one has this agent network like NVT in education and if a lone university want to go against this network like Singapore airline with FLT some years ago, Singapore want to be cheeky and said we dont want to give you the commission higher than 5% as we can generate similar sale on our web site, wishful thinking, FLT said no pay the commission we want or go do it yourself
we know who won Singapore airline vs FLT ... FLT took them off the list of recommended flight, their ticket sale drop, Singapore came away with a bleeding nose.
Re: NVT - Navitas
Thanks for the responses guys
Just listening to presentation now, and they seem well in line with what has been said.
As an aside, some of the questions from the representatives of the big international investment houses left a lot to be desired. I am left with the impression that most of these big players don't bother doing any research into the company before phoning into the presentation.
I still don't understand the company's comment that it is not a hit to earnings, but it is a hit to growth.
Thanks for the responses guys
Just listening to presentation now, and they seem well in line with what has been said.
As an aside, some of the questions from the representatives of the big international investment houses left a lot to be desired. I am left with the impression that most of these big players don't bother doing any research into the company before phoning into the presentation.
I still don't understand the company's comment that it is not a hit to earnings, but it is a hit to growth.
skc
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Yes and no. You can see that every analyst was just trying to get a handle on the financial impact. They ask about student numbers, EBIT, how much will they shift to CBD campus etc etc, just so there can be more certainty than now. I have seen one note saying $15m and another $31m EBITDA impact. That's a big difference. I think they were deliberately asking more basic questions just to see if the CEO would drop them a hint.
Navitas never gave breakdown of performance by campus.. most probably so the University partners don't look at it and say "they are making $Xm profit from us".
It's an attempt to put a positive spin on a bad situation. EBITDA for FY13 was ~$130m and FY14 guidance was $138-148m. At the same growth rate, it'd be something like $170m by FY16. As the impact isn't coming until 2016, what they are saying (I think) is that the EBITDA at that time will still be higher than what it is now. So it's not a hit to earnings (i.e. earnings won't go backward, using FY14's figure as a reference), but to growth (btw FY14 to FY16).
And to me it implies the impact for EBITDA is going to be less than the difference between FY16 and FY14 figures, assuming business-as-usual. In other words, <$27m. That's my interpretation of it anyway.
P.S. My bounce trade was totally fk'd and I traded like an amateur. Still in profit, but barely worth the bother.
P.P.S. I did't buy it as a long term hold, as I decided to wait for analysts calls tomorrow to take a position. I imgaine there'd be a few downgrades, given the stock's high PE plus uncertainty around the direct and indirect impact. There may also be other incidentals like them investing more in other campus plus lower growth inherent within SIBT. I'd be happy to pick it up if it trades around PE in the high teens. But I highly doubt it'd get down there.
Yes and no. You can see that every analyst was just trying to get a handle on the financial impact. They ask about student numbers, EBIT, how much will they shift to CBD campus etc etc, just so there can be more certainty than now. I have seen one note saying $15m and another $31m EBITDA impact. That's a big difference. I think they were deliberately asking more basic questions just to see if the CEO would drop them a hint.
Navitas never gave breakdown of performance by campus.. most probably so the University partners don't look at it and say "they are making $Xm profit from us".
It's an attempt to put a positive spin on a bad situation. EBITDA for FY13 was ~$130m and FY14 guidance was $138-148m. At the same growth rate, it'd be something like $170m by FY16. As the impact isn't coming until 2016, what they are saying (I think) is that the EBITDA at that time will still be higher than what it is now. So it's not a hit to earnings (i.e. earnings won't go backward, using FY14's figure as a reference), but to growth (btw FY14 to FY16).
And to me it implies the impact for EBITDA is going to be less than the difference between FY16 and FY14 figures, assuming business-as-usual. In other words, <$27m. That's my interpretation of it anyway.
P.S. My bounce trade was totally fk'd and I traded like an amateur. Still in profit, but barely worth the bother.
P.P.S. I did't buy it as a long term hold, as I decided to wait for analysts calls tomorrow to take a position. I imgaine there'd be a few downgrades, given the stock's high PE plus uncertainty around the direct and indirect impact. There may also be other incidentals like them investing more in other campus plus lower growth inherent within SIBT. I'd be happy to pick it up if it trades around PE in the high teens. But I highly doubt it'd get down there.
tinhat
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Where? On your radio programme? Serious question. Do you publish something or do you have a securities license and advise clients or corporates?
We don't often agree, but on this you have literally taken the words out of my mouth. The FLT example is very good. I might use it.
Where? On your radio programme? Serious question. Do you publish something or do you have a securities license and advise clients or corporates?
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Re: NVT - Navitas
I probably should have been clearer... I understand the statement in a literal sense, but I do not understand it in a cultural / management sense.
It definitely is a euphemism of sorts, or as you put it spin, and that is the part that irks me the most. It clearly is a hit to earnings, because without it, and the same growth, earnings would be a lot higher in 2016 and 2017.
The part that bothers me is, if they royally screwed up a new opportunity down the track, which does not impact other earnings, but would add to those earnings, it would still detract from potential shareholder value. The statement is bothersome because it implies that maintaining current earnings (in any way) is fine, regardless of whatever opportunities are missed.
Maybe I am nit-picking.
I agree and have the same interpretation.
I probably should have been clearer... I understand the statement in a literal sense, but I do not understand it in a cultural / management sense.
It definitely is a euphemism of sorts, or as you put it spin, and that is the part that irks me the most. It clearly is a hit to earnings, because without it, and the same growth, earnings would be a lot higher in 2016 and 2017.
The part that bothers me is, if they royally screwed up a new opportunity down the track, which does not impact other earnings, but would add to those earnings, it would still detract from potential shareholder value. The statement is bothersome because it implies that maintaining current earnings (in any way) is fine, regardless of whatever opportunities are missed.
Maybe I am nit-picking.
Re: NVT - Navitas
I do agree they spins a bit on the contract loss and over emphasis play on the we are not moving backward
I be happy if they said we lost the contract we got 2 years to work out how to replace the earning loss and let the market decide without getting defensive ..
Market will respond accordingly if you show them the money
just tell it like it is..they got a good model and capital light business so much easier for them to navigate
I do agree they spins a bit on the contract loss and over emphasis play on the we are not moving backward
I be happy if they said we lost the contract we got 2 years to work out how to replace the earning loss and let the market decide without getting defensive ..
Market will respond accordingly if you show them the money
just tell it like it is..they got a good model and capital light business so much easier for them to navigate
Re: NVT - Navitas
I have had shares in this company, on and off, since they floated. Over the years I have been fortunate to have done very well with them.
Macquarie's decision took me by surprise but I doubt others will follow suit. Time will tell of course but NVT is a global multi-faceted marketing machine. Replicating their services will be no mean feat and Macquarie probably does not expect to do so. 31 other agreements may well become more, particularly overseas.
The gradual success of NVT in breaking into the USA market, particularly with Boston Universities, is testimony to their expertise in my view.
They are experienced in sectors other than Uni pathways and have capacity to move into further innovations.
It's a guess but perhaps the comment above about a gradual move back towards the $6 region is not unreasonable. Healthy ff dividend on the way too.
I don't have the market analytical knowledge of others in this thread but certainly see no reason to panic or despair.
I have had shares in this company, on and off, since they floated. Over the years I have been fortunate to have done very well with them.
Macquarie's decision took me by surprise but I doubt others will follow suit. Time will tell of course but NVT is a global multi-faceted marketing machine. Replicating their services will be no mean feat and Macquarie probably does not expect to do so. 31 other agreements may well become more, particularly overseas.
The gradual success of NVT in breaking into the USA market, particularly with Boston Universities, is testimony to their expertise in my view.
They are experienced in sectors other than Uni pathways and have capacity to move into further innovations.
It's a guess but perhaps the comment above about a gradual move back towards the $6 region is not unreasonable. Healthy ff dividend on the way too.
I don't have the market analytical knowledge of others in this thread but certainly see no reason to panic or despair.
Faramir
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Just read this post out of curiosity and realised that I missed the boat (again) Congratulations to all those who brought shares yesterday (under $5). I was away. This morning it peak at $5.15. I was thinking about buying a small parcel but I should have logged on yesterday. Volumes peaked this morning and right now - it has quieten down.
I am listening to yesterday's audio recording. I am browsing their website. I guess I have missed the boat.
Just read this post out of curiosity and realised that I missed the boat (again
) Congratulations to all those who brought shares yesterday (under $5). I was away. This morning it peak at $5.15. I was thinking about buying a small parcel but I should have logged on yesterday. Volumes peaked this morning and right now - it has quieten down.I am listening to yesterday's audio recording. I am browsing their website. I guess I have missed the boat.
Faramir
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Re: NVT - Navitas
I listened to the audio and it convinced me to buy Navitas. Got 400 shares at $5.05. I was not going to sit around wait for it to drop or rise. There were more buyers than sellers (around 1:10pm), so I said I better bite the bullet and take market price. Today's range has been $5.01-$5.16 (at 1:38pm). I guess that there would be a morning 'rush' and the volumes indicate it.
Its lowest point yesterday was $4.43. In theory one could say that I lost $248 but I so busy yesterday. Has anyone ever picked the low point of any stock?
After reading this thread last night, I did a bit of cramming of Navitas. I guess I can do more and more study but I wished I followed Navitas much earlier.
It is my fourth set of shares I own.
I listened to the audio and it convinced me to buy Navitas. Got 400 shares at $5.05. I was not going to sit around wait for it to drop or rise. There were more buyers than sellers (around 1:10pm), so I said I better bite the bullet and take market price. Today's range has been $5.01-$5.16 (at 1:38pm). I guess that there would be a morning 'rush' and the volumes indicate it.
Its lowest point yesterday was $4.43. In theory one could say that I lost $248 but I so busy yesterday. Has anyone ever picked the low point of any stock?
After reading this thread last night, I did a bit of cramming of Navitas. I guess I can do more and more study but I wished I followed Navitas much earlier.
It is my fourth set of shares I own.
Re: NVT - Navitas
I have but it was more luck than skill thin I sold way below the peak so there are swings and roundabouts. The stock market is full of should have, could have, would haves...
It looks like you are on the right track, buy the highest quality businesses you can at the cheapest prices you can and sit back and relax. The returns will come from patience and that $248.00 opportunity cost at some point in the future should feel like a pittance.
I have but it was more luck than skill thin I sold way below the peak so there are swings and roundabouts. The stock market is full of should have, could have, would haves...
It looks like you are on the right track, buy the highest quality businesses you can at the cheapest prices you can and sit back and relax. The returns will come from patience and that $248.00 opportunity cost at some point in the future should feel like a pittance.
Re: NVT - Navitas
You have a knack for picking up good business for a beginner, well done
most go for species and mining explorer in chase of quick bucks.
I think you will do well in the long run, time will smooth out the extra few percent you paid
for good business.
You have a knack for picking up good business for a beginner, well done
most go for species and mining explorer in chase of quick bucks.
I think you will do well in the long run, time will smooth out the extra few percent you paid
for good business.
Faramir
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Re: NVT - Navitas
Hi ROE
Thank you for your encouragement. Your input is greatly valued.
What is 'species'? Biotech? My first purchase was a biotech that crashed.
I am not into miners. Maybe energy but not miners.
Stocks like NVT. When they drop significantly, why does it take a long time to recover slowly? MMS is another one I hold. it's recovery process is slow and maybe non existent. I have to pretend I don't own them and keep them off my watchlist for a while.
I am going to write something in another post. Got to keep this one revelant to NVT. I will credit Aussie Stock Forums for raising my awareness of this company.
Hi ROE
Thank you for your encouragement. Your input is greatly valued.
What is 'species'? Biotech? My first purchase was a biotech that crashed.
I am not into miners. Maybe energy but not miners.
Stocks like NVT. When they drop significantly, why does it take a long time to recover slowly? MMS is another one I hold. it's recovery process is slow and maybe non existent. I have to pretend I don't own them and keep them off my watchlist for a while.
I am going to write something in another post. Got to keep this one revelant to NVT. I will credit Aussie Stock Forums for raising my awareness of this company.
Re: NVT - Navitas
Speculation stocks, high risk, high pay off scenario, they have no real cash flow, just trades on sentiment, burned cash and hopefully something good will come out at the end of it.
I classified specs stocks as the one that has no +ve cash flow doesnt matter who they are
miners, biotech, .com etc..
There are time and place for them and I do dabble in them when you have enough capital to spread but it aren't my core holding.
Most people I know start out buy going into them I caution them against it but it is their money
and most of them burned a whole lot of capital before they changed their way
starting out buying good business you are probably ahead of the pack.
Speculation stocks, high risk, high pay off scenario, they have no real cash flow, just trades on sentiment, burned cash and hopefully something good will come out at the end of it.
I classified specs stocks as the one that has no +ve cash flow doesnt matter who they are
miners, biotech, .com etc..
There are time and place for them and I do dabble in them when you have enough capital to spread but it aren't my core holding.
Most people I know start out buy going into them I caution them against it but it is their money
and most of them burned a whole lot of capital before they changed their way
starting out buying good business you are probably ahead of the pack.
Re: NVT - Navitas
Looks like there has been a little action in NVT whilst I have been having a bit of a holiday.
The contract lose with Macquarie is not insignificant. The association has been highly beneficial for NVT to date. But big picture and short version of analysis – Yaaawwwnnn – back to sleep.
Slightly longer version.
(Please note my basis for holding NVT may not match yours – for me I’m looking for a stock that accommodates a million $ investment and potential hold period of 20+ years.)
Contract loses with partner universities is and always has been a business risk. Lose of one university is not a sign of a systemic change.
The environment in Australia with the new governments legislation allowing Uni’s to set their own fees has freed Maquarie to become much more apparitional in where it wants to grow – ie a globally significant international university and good luck to them. The prestige they are looking for means they need everything under their own umbrella and brand – The Navitas partnerships doesn’t fit with where Macquarie want to go but I bet has helped lift them to the launch pad they are at, and as such I’m sure there is good will still between the organisations.
With a bit of luck over the next few decades there will be a few more similar situations – partnering in the early days, Uni’s that eventually become powerhouses is beneficial for Navitas even if the relationship eventually ends.
SIBT holds all the rights to course material for the pathway program etc and students completing can still articulate to Macquarie on completion of the pathway program if they wish. What they lose is the facilities at Macquarie North Ryde and the pulling power of the Macquarie name which Macquarie will have and they will also have a competing pathway program.
Unknowns – how much Macquarie will compete against SIBT for business courses or do Macquarie want to focus on other more research intensive disciplines and higher regarded MBA’s etc.
How many students recruited by Navitas want to go to Macquarie and nowhere else?
On the assumption that Navitas won’t actually lose that many students because they go directly to Macquarie – how will they accommodate those students? Will the look for another partnering Uni in Sydney? Will they expand their own college in the CBD? They have two years to sort this out.
They have been adamant that they don’t see the transition causing a reduction in earnings on PCP – but growth may be impacted or non- existent for a couple of half’s during the transition. That is the only real guidance they have given on the impact and that is not that significant in the big scheme.
I did note they seemed to pee off a couple of the analyst in the conference call recording that wanted more detail, But I like that, the information the analysts wanted I didn’t need as an owner to make investment decisions and it shows they don’t bow to analyst pressure. Probably an indication why little seems to leak into the share price pre- announcements with this company.
I think NVT was around $3 bucks when I first posted on it in this thread a few years ago and it has since paid out basically all earnings as dividends. Now it has had a major setback and its trading around $5. Step back for a bigger perspective and you will see the strength of the company as a long term proposition. In the short term though I have no idea of what the price will do but I do know what I will do given opportunity.
Looks like there has been a little action in NVT whilst I have been having a bit of a holiday.
The contract lose with Macquarie is not insignificant. The association has been highly beneficial for NVT to date. But big picture and short version of analysis – Yaaawwwnnn – back to sleep.
Slightly longer version.
(Please note my basis for holding NVT may not match yours – for me I’m looking for a stock that accommodates a million $ investment and potential hold period of 20+ years.)
Contract loses with partner universities is and always has been a business risk. Lose of one university is not a sign of a systemic change.
The environment in Australia with the new governments legislation allowing Uni’s to set their own fees has freed Maquarie to become much more apparitional in where it wants to grow – ie a globally significant international university and good luck to them. The prestige they are looking for means they need everything under their own umbrella and brand – The Navitas partnerships doesn’t fit with where Macquarie want to go but I bet has helped lift them to the launch pad they are at, and as such I’m sure there is good will still between the organisations.
With a bit of luck over the next few decades there will be a few more similar situations – partnering in the early days, Uni’s that eventually become powerhouses is beneficial for Navitas even if the relationship eventually ends.
SIBT holds all the rights to course material for the pathway program etc and students completing can still articulate to Macquarie on completion of the pathway program if they wish. What they lose is the facilities at Macquarie North Ryde and the pulling power of the Macquarie name which Macquarie will have and they will also have a competing pathway program.
Unknowns – how much Macquarie will compete against SIBT for business courses or do Macquarie want to focus on other more research intensive disciplines and higher regarded MBA’s etc.
How many students recruited by Navitas want to go to Macquarie and nowhere else?
On the assumption that Navitas won’t actually lose that many students because they go directly to Macquarie – how will they accommodate those students? Will the look for another partnering Uni in Sydney? Will they expand their own college in the CBD? They have two years to sort this out.
They have been adamant that they don’t see the transition causing a reduction in earnings on PCP – but growth may be impacted or non- existent for a couple of half’s during the transition. That is the only real guidance they have given on the impact and that is not that significant in the big scheme.
I did note they seemed to pee off a couple of the analyst in the conference call recording that wanted more detail, But I like that, the information the analysts wanted I didn’t need as an owner to make investment decisions and it shows they don’t bow to analyst pressure. Probably an indication why little seems to leak into the share price pre- announcements with this company.
I think NVT was around $3 bucks when I first posted on it in this thread a few years ago and it has since paid out basically all earnings as dividends. Now it has had a major setback and its trading around $5. Step back for a bigger perspective and you will see the strength of the company as a long term proposition. In the short term though I have no idea of what the price will do but I do know what I will do given opportunity.
