NST - Northern Star Resources

[skyQuake]

I closed the trade today at a small lost. Gold stocks in general tanked with the XGD down 2%. NST outperformed slightly down only 0.4%.





There is little doubt that the chart and fundamentally (namely short term gold price direction) the stock is heading in one direction over the medium term... But the trade wasn't about the chart; it was about the stock experiencing an out-of-whack match due to index rebalances. It was an attempt at capturing the mean reversion.

Here are some of the other Friday out-of-whack stocks and how they performed... illustrating the positive expectancy of the opportunity presented by the index-rebalancers.

View attachment 59506

P.S. I have only included something that looked obviously impacted by the match. There may be many others in addition to what I have listed.

P.S. If one does not want a directional risk he/she can hedge the trade with a trade in a peer in the opposite direction. E.g. Long NST and short NCM on the close would have yielded a better outcome than a straight long NST.



As described above my intent was only to capture the mean reversion over the following trading session. So don't take anything out of my 1-day long position in NST.

Shh dont give everything away!

______________________________________

Alternately you could have shorted EVN or BDR which matched higher for even more fun

 

[pixel]

Did some rewind since Nov 2013 on NST price. I am not expert on chart but chartists like Pixel (sorry mate to put you on spot because you always provide good value information) said out of NST when price was 0.93 and chart was there. Then NST went up and up. Again it started sliding down and today it was $1245 or so. Should I leave hope and prove with chart ? I personally will not and think with solid technical base and steady rise it is an opportunity to buy (I however unloaded my stuff to book profit earlier) as done by SKC.
I have dumped a chart (COmmsec source) and believe with heavy sell out it gives an opportunity.

1.245 -1.190% -$0.015 1.450 1.150 1.275 1.275 1.192 12,535,131

Bottom line for me - if I am that intelligent then many of my reds would have been green so please DYOR.

Some good points, Miner
... and don't be shy about "putting me on the spot"; I can handle that

Yes, I closed that trade I referred to last November when the chart suggested resistance and I wanted the money (plus profit) for other things. However, it's not necessary to assume I didn't buy back in after the pullback just because I didn't post about it at the time. I may have between 20 and 50 "irons in the fire" at any time and wouldn't have time to trade for posting and explaining every one of them.

Just for the record though: I took much of February off for a relaxing holiday. That meant I missed a few re-entries. NST would've been one of them.
The trade I've been talking about a couple of days ago was entered in June...

 

[rb250660]

I'm out at break even. Next....

 

[sreeve]

My NST chart interpretation - (these charts were done yesterday, before today's large falls)

NST has some buying support in the $1.20s. Should this area fail, a test of $1.09 is likely. Next couple of days will determine next direction (see short term candlesticks with wedge formed).

WEEKLY candlestick chart:

Close up with DAILY candlestick chart:

~ Scott

 

[notting]

When gold was around 1700 NST was around 1.50. About where it is now. Make sense?

 

[tech/a]

When gold was around 1700 NST was around 1.50. About where it is now. Make sense?

Why does it have to make sense
Its worth what the market is prepared to pay.

 

[notting]

Market has a habit of overpaying and underpaying.
The art is to know when it is about to correct itself.
When things don't make sense I like to make a note of it, I don't think it has to make sense.
I rather like it when it doesn't.

Then when it looks like it's realised it has not made sense.
I step in and try to help it realise.
All eyes on tomorrow!!!

 

[tech/a]

Market has a habit of overpaying and underpaying.
The art is to know when it is about to correct itself.
When things don't make sense I like to make a note of it, I don't think it has to make sense.
I rather like it when it doesn't.

Then when it looks like it's realised it has not made sense.
I step in and try to help it realise.
All eyes on tomorrow!!!

So what's your plan?
Short it through CFD
Buy it on a dip ( doubt it if it's already being over payed )

 

[notting]

So what's your plan?
Short it through CFD
Buy it on a dip ( doubt it if it's already being over payed )

I shorted it throughout yesterday afternoon.
Not a full position and was very surprised at the bullishness of it.
I suspect it was from amateur Christmas traders whilst the heavier hitters are on holiday.
This one tends to trade like it reads tea leaves at Hot Copper - very amateur - so I occasionally back myself against tech bull or bear.
I was long so just kept selling cause Fairfax were pumping up the gold moves that I could not see at all on the US ETFs and this goldie was way out running others in our market.
It's last updates have been less than stella!
What was interesting from the bull side however was the moves at the close of quite a few goldies on Fridays close.
Big volume buying went through.
See if they all jump off today by watching volumes today to see how serious the selling will be.
Had a bad night in US last night.

 

[tech/a]

I shorted it throughout yesterday afternoon.
Not a full position and was very surprised at the bullishness of it.
I suspect it was from amateur Christmas traders whilst the heavier hitters are on holiday.
This one tends to trade like it reads tea leaves at Hot Copper - very amateur - so I occasionally back myself against tech bull or bear.
I was long so just kept selling cause Fairfax were pumping up the gold moves that I could not see at all on the US ETFs and this goldie was way out running others in our market.
It's last updates have been less than stella!
What was interesting from the bull side however was the moves at the close of quite a few goldies on Fridays close.
Big volume buying went through.
See if they all jump off today by watching volumes today to see how serious the selling will be.
Had a bad night in US last night.

Very high volume can be supply.
Technically the big push through resistance at $1.35 ish is a classic bullish impulse through resistance.
I do expect that to be tested (The $1.35 ish level)

I presume shorting it throughout the day means various shorts at higher levels.
If a short term play could be good.(Unless $1.35 broken decisively)
If longer term could be less that a happy ending, Particularly if the Resistance is not tested---as expected.

Not a bad trade and maybe clever coming in on increased supply.

 

[pixel]

I look a lot at open gaps, especially when a stock appears to have a habit of closing them sooner or later.
NST falls into that category.

Considering the effort it took it yesterday to close the one to $1.58 - it remained open till the very last Closing Auction - I didn't count on the next one being closed any time soon. At least not before one or possibly all three of the lower ones were tested.



As today's candle looks likely to form a (top-reversing) Harami, I place my bid at $1.205. This strategy has worked twice before at recent 96 and 97c levels.

 

[tech/a]

Inside day on a very bullish yesterday is " A" typical.

Particularly on low ish volume.
Indicating no panic selling---in fact accumulation.

Watch for tomorrows action around the inside bar.
This is the test of old resistance--playing out.
I'm more bullish than bearish.
The short play on very high volume supply days was a
good one.---still holding?---accumulating?

 

[tech/a]

Notting

Out of interest what was your average short entry price?

 

[notting]

Bought in lots of little chunks and at the close yesterday afternoon.
Then offloaded it at between 1.445 and 1.47 today with the predictable excitement of people fleeing gold on morning testosterone!
It wasn't a trade I was particularly feeling smart about even though "it went my way"
So now I look for confirmation of what it did yesterday in relation to the rest of the Gold market.
I'm still nervous about the 16 stocks I identified of having a bullish close on Friday.
They all jumped on that high volume close so I was thinking it was interest over supply.z
Really I should have stayed long in my opinion.

 

[pixel]

Bought in lots of little chunks and at the close yesterday afternoon.
Then offloaded it at between 1.445 and 1.47 today with the predictable excitement of people fleeing gold on morning testosterone!
It wasn't a trade I was particularly feeling smart about even though "it went my way"
So now I look for confirmation of what it did yesterday in relation to the rest of the Gold market.
I'm still nervous about the 16 stocks I identified of having a bullish close on Friday.
They all jumped on that high volume close so I was thinking it was interest over supply.z
Really I should have stayed long in my opinion.

I still believe you did the right thing, notting.
As a precedent, check out the Harami exactly 2 months ago: See how that panned out.



Even if you erred on the side of caution and the leopard changes his spots this time. your money is in the bank - much safer there than gambled on a stock that's trading irrationally at the best of times.

 

[notting]

Yes, the way I see it, gold will need to smash through 1400 and head pretty smartly to 1700 oz US$ for NST to be trading at around 2.15.
Currently looking a tad optimistic with gold stretching for 1300 oz.
Hell, we gotta buy something, said all the little piggies running in one direction.

 

[notting]

Illustrating the point above.


A golden cross on steroids, will end up leaving you deflated.

Getting ready to go berserk shorting gold stocks should the expected bazooka turn out to be less than a trillion on the table.

 

[laurie]

This stock has thrown out all the so called charts out of whack!! hey guys it hit $2.3!! today you are all still at $1.5 it has grown up since then?

 

[notting]

Their continuing to prove to be pretty smart operators.
They just bought into some surrounding tenements which they can process with existing equipment and the momentum went one way and all time highs are achieved.
Realistically the price is way too optimistic.

There is talk of a pick up in the second half of the year for gold when all the money has no where else to go I guess.
But this is well and truly priced in.

I reversed at 2.07 got a little ride down and got out.
Started nibbling at some others.

I'm seeing gold in my dreams at the moment. Literally!

 

[Wysiwyg]

I'm seeing gold in my dreams at the moment. Literally!

That must be coinciding with what you think you see is a trend change up. I hope we're right for a position entry (not in NST though).