Sean K
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
One of those was me.
One of those was me.
NRZ - NeuRizer Ltd
- Thread starter Mistermoon
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
One things for sure, this bid is NOT going to succeed, but given the time that Crosby has probably spent putting it together I wonder how quickly they will turn around and up the ante, they are silly if they really want the company they should put in a bid of $50m = $1 per share, still heavily undervalues the company but gets alot of shareholders going hmmmmm that sounds ok,
One things for sure, this bid is NOT going to succeed, but given the time that Crosby has probably spent putting it together I wonder how quickly they will turn around and up the ante, they are silly if they really want the company they should put in a bid of $50m = $1 per share, still heavily undervalues the company but gets alot of shareholders going hmmmmm that sounds ok,
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Hmmm MEGA seems hungry!
Over here boy, over here, look big JORC deposit, come on boy over here, nice juicy 72m lbs of Uranium
Hmmm MEGA seems hungry!
Over here boy, over here, look big JORC deposit, come on boy over here, nice juicy 72m lbs of Uranium
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Hmmm apparantly PDN's hungry too,
Also interesting to note, but if there are alot of holders who bought in when MTN was above say $1, it is highly unlikely that they would be happy with a bid below that level,
I am still supremely confiednt that someone else will make a bid around $1, where the auction goes from there I can't say
King coal
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
July 07, 2006
Marathon Resources (MTN) 76c
Excel Coal (EXL) $8.68
TAKEOVERS are always a fertile source of blarney, but we're intrigued about the "talk it down" tactics employed in two new resource sector bids. Unveiling US coal giant Peabody's $1.83 billion ($8.50 a share) offer for Excel Coal yesterday, Excel's management pretty much admitted the company's fortunes had peaked.
In the case of uranium hopeful Marathon, suitor Crosby Capital devoted nine pages to questioning whether Marathon could last the distance.
Readers were left to ponder why the Hong Kong merchant bankers actually want to buy Marathon, if it's as crappy as they portray.
In the case of Excel, management offered 2006-07 (current year) net profit guidance of $120 million.
Yes, that's up on the expected $95-100 million for 2005-06 but well short of market expectations of around $160 million.
While coal's gloss looks to be wearing thin, analysts have described Peabody's bid as insufficient.
According to Fat Prophets resource analyst Gavin Wendt, the offer should be more like $9.50 to $10.50 a share. "It seems to sell the company well short."
In the case of Marathon, Crosby's $33 million, 68c a share, bid either endorses the uranium sector's potential or confirms the naysayers' doubts.
Marathon's key deposit, Mt Gee in the Flinders Ranges, has an inferred resource of 33,000 tonnes of uranium oxide, but Crosby kindly notes the tenement is ranked within the lowest category.
"Any cash flow from development of the company's prospects will be subject to successful advancement of further exploration projects and feasibility, which would be several years away," Crosby says. Crosby estimates Marathon has spent $2.4 million to date in total, but that developing Mt Gee alone would cost $150 million.
Crosby insists it's providing the means for punters to exit an illiquid stock, one which has tumbled from its early April peak of $1.45 a share.
Uranium sceptic Criterion nominated Marathon as one of the better uranium explorers, assigning a SPECULATIVE BUY call at $1.07 on April 11.
So our thinking was right, but the timing was off.
Marathon yesterday described the Crosby offer as "unsolicited and opportunistic" and noted that, as directors held 22 per cent of the capital, Crosby's bid wouldn't succeed with its condition of 90 per cent minimum acceptance.
Fat Prophet's Wendt, a Marathon fan, notes that most investors would have got into Marathon at a higher price. "Psychologically no-one wants to sell out at a loss."
Criterion believes Marathon holders might as well HOLD.
We also rate Excel a HOLD. There's a good chance of a counter-bid, or of Peabody being forced to sweeten the offer.
Hmmm apparantly PDN's hungry too,
Also interesting to note, but if there are alot of holders who bought in when MTN was above say $1, it is highly unlikely that they would be happy with a bid below that level,
I am still supremely confiednt that someone else will make a bid around $1, where the auction goes from there I can't say
King coal
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
July 07, 2006
Marathon Resources (MTN) 76c
Excel Coal (EXL) $8.68
TAKEOVERS are always a fertile source of blarney, but we're intrigued about the "talk it down" tactics employed in two new resource sector bids. Unveiling US coal giant Peabody's $1.83 billion ($8.50 a share) offer for Excel Coal yesterday, Excel's management pretty much admitted the company's fortunes had peaked.
In the case of uranium hopeful Marathon, suitor Crosby Capital devoted nine pages to questioning whether Marathon could last the distance.
Readers were left to ponder why the Hong Kong merchant bankers actually want to buy Marathon, if it's as crappy as they portray.
In the case of Excel, management offered 2006-07 (current year) net profit guidance of $120 million.
Yes, that's up on the expected $95-100 million for 2005-06 but well short of market expectations of around $160 million.
While coal's gloss looks to be wearing thin, analysts have described Peabody's bid as insufficient.
According to Fat Prophets resource analyst Gavin Wendt, the offer should be more like $9.50 to $10.50 a share. "It seems to sell the company well short."
In the case of Marathon, Crosby's $33 million, 68c a share, bid either endorses the uranium sector's potential or confirms the naysayers' doubts.
Marathon's key deposit, Mt Gee in the Flinders Ranges, has an inferred resource of 33,000 tonnes of uranium oxide, but Crosby kindly notes the tenement is ranked within the lowest category.
"Any cash flow from development of the company's prospects will be subject to successful advancement of further exploration projects and feasibility, which would be several years away," Crosby says. Crosby estimates Marathon has spent $2.4 million to date in total, but that developing Mt Gee alone would cost $150 million.
Crosby insists it's providing the means for punters to exit an illiquid stock, one which has tumbled from its early April peak of $1.45 a share.
Uranium sceptic Criterion nominated Marathon as one of the better uranium explorers, assigning a SPECULATIVE BUY call at $1.07 on April 11.
So our thinking was right, but the timing was off.
Marathon yesterday described the Crosby offer as "unsolicited and opportunistic" and noted that, as directors held 22 per cent of the capital, Crosby's bid wouldn't succeed with its condition of 90 per cent minimum acceptance.
Fat Prophet's Wendt, a Marathon fan, notes that most investors would have got into Marathon at a higher price. "Psychologically no-one wants to sell out at a loss."
Criterion believes Marathon holders might as well HOLD.
We also rate Excel a HOLD. There's a good chance of a counter-bid, or of Peabody being forced to sweeten the offer.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
MTN Announcement today - Conclusion from technical presentation - suggests deposit could be more than 33,000t.... timely to be putting this out!
Conclusion:
1) Historical intellectual input provided the base for understanding of geology and U-mineralisation at Mt Painter - Mt Gee area. However, it has also led to mythical opinions limiting exploration and resource potential.
2) Tectogenetic and ore genesis studies provide new information allowing reidentification and re-definition of the nature of the mineralised system and revision of exploration and resource potential.
3) Tectonic deformation controlling mineralisation is secondary of nature resulting from rejuvenation of pre-existing structures. Kinematic analysis suggests the system is propagated from the basement and from NE towards SW.
4) PMS forms uniform, 11-12 km NE extending, structurally controlled U-rich mineral system. Tectonic genesis, internal complexity of the system and ore development main stage (coffinite-uraninite) indicate its epigenetic, hydrothermal nature. Origin of torbernite is seen as resulting from later epithermal stage.
5) At Mt Gee deposit alone inferred resource of about 57million tonnes at 0.06% for 33,200 tonnes U3O8 has been defined. Mineralisation extends along WNW – ESE structural trend and is modified by influence of N and NE oriented structures.
6) Recent Marathon drilling results (MN8-13) and assays from archival PIRSA drillings (MGD047a & 151) and the CRAE drill hole (GE49), confirm continuity of U-mineralisation (along WNW trend within about 20m thick breccia zone), and suggest an increase of grade and inferred resource also in the eastern part of the Mt Gee deposit, compared to previous estimates.7) Up to date, U-mineralisation has been identified near surface and shallower levels of the PMS. This has led to identification of Mt Gee, Hodgkinson, Armachair-Streitberg deposits and a number of prospects with presence of uranium mineralisation. Further strong exploration and resource potential exists at shallow levels and with depth as determined by geophysical and tectonic criteria.
MTN Announcement today - Conclusion from technical presentation - suggests deposit could be more than 33,000t.... timely to be putting this out!
Conclusion:
1) Historical intellectual input provided the base for understanding of geology and U-mineralisation at Mt Painter - Mt Gee area. However, it has also led to mythical opinions limiting exploration and resource potential.
2) Tectogenetic and ore genesis studies provide new information allowing reidentification and re-definition of the nature of the mineralised system and revision of exploration and resource potential.
3) Tectonic deformation controlling mineralisation is secondary of nature resulting from rejuvenation of pre-existing structures. Kinematic analysis suggests the system is propagated from the basement and from NE towards SW.
4) PMS forms uniform, 11-12 km NE extending, structurally controlled U-rich mineral system. Tectonic genesis, internal complexity of the system and ore development main stage (coffinite-uraninite) indicate its epigenetic, hydrothermal nature. Origin of torbernite is seen as resulting from later epithermal stage.
5) At Mt Gee deposit alone inferred resource of about 57million tonnes at 0.06% for 33,200 tonnes U3O8 has been defined. Mineralisation extends along WNW – ESE structural trend and is modified by influence of N and NE oriented structures.
6) Recent Marathon drilling results (MN8-13) and assays from archival PIRSA drillings (MGD047a & 151) and the CRAE drill hole (GE49), confirm continuity of U-mineralisation (along WNW trend within about 20m thick breccia zone), and suggest an increase of grade and inferred resource also in the eastern part of the Mt Gee deposit, compared to previous estimates.7) Up to date, U-mineralisation has been identified near surface and shallower levels of the PMS. This has led to identification of Mt Gee, Hodgkinson, Armachair-Streitberg deposits and a number of prospects with presence of uranium mineralisation. Further strong exploration and resource potential exists at shallow levels and with depth as determined by geophysical and tectonic criteria.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Breakout?
I had 80c as a resistance level (Highs reached in August 05, was base for launch in march 06, was tested as support in late april/may 06, and has provided resistance in the last week)
Techies your view?
Breakout?
I had 80c as a resistance level (Highs reached in August 05, was base for launch in march 06, was tested as support in late april/may 06, and has provided resistance in the last week)
Techies your view?
Sean K
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
I think too much depends on the takeover YT.
Could go anywhere.
They might accept $1.00, or someone else could come in and fight for it and it goes to $1.50.....Or, the offer is withdrawn and it goes back to .50c.
I think too much depends on the takeover YT.
Could go anywhere.
They might accept $1.00, or someone else could come in and fight for it and it goes to $1.50.....Or, the offer is withdrawn and it goes back to .50c.
Realist
Billie Jean is not my lover
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Ridiculous.
Not that I think MTN is a bad buy at all, quite the contrary, but for an analyst (who happens to own the stock, so is biased) to make such a claim as to value a stock 15 times what it is selling now for is criminal.
Hence why FAT (his company) is down 12% this year. They are a joke.
It is about as usefull as a doctor (more likely some old guy in a white coat) prescribing an abdominizer for health reasons.
Ridiculous.
Not that I think MTN is a bad buy at all, quite the contrary, but for an analyst (who happens to own the stock, so is biased) to make such a claim as to value a stock 15 times what it is selling now for is criminal.
Hence why FAT (his company) is down 12% this year. They are a joke.
It is about as usefull as a doctor (more likely some old guy in a white coat) prescribing an abdominizer for health reasons.
Sean K
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Realist, I think you'll find Fat Prophets have beaten the market over the past few years.
The reason the listed company is down is because the general market is going OK and the rest of us think we can pick winners just as easily.
LICs will do better when the market gets tougher.
Realist, I think you'll find Fat Prophets have beaten the market over the past few years.
The reason the listed company is down is because the general market is going OK and the rest of us think we can pick winners just as easily.
LICs will do better when the market gets tougher.
3 veiws of a secret
3 veiws of a secret
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Postman Pat turned up today with an envelope from Marathon......
QU: When does Bill Crosby's offer cease?.....just cannot see this takeover lifting off. Are they MAD?
Postman Pat turned up today with an envelope from Marathon......
QU: When does Bill Crosby's offer cease?.....just cannot see this takeover lifting off. Are they MAD?
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Of course it won't. Especially when they need 90%+ for it to go ahead and the directors who are strongly against the takeover hold +20%.
Crosby can bag MTN all they want and say how they are doing shareholders a favour by buying out their share but if MTN is so bad why do THEY want it?
Of course it won't. Especially when they need 90%+ for it to go ahead and the directors who are strongly against the takeover hold +20%.
Crosby can bag MTN all they want and say how they are doing shareholders a favour by buying out their share but if MTN is so bad why do THEY want it?
3 veiws of a secret
3 veiws of a secret
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Sure I understand what your saying ,but what's got me confused is ...Has Crosby done their homework,or are am I missing the obvious,where's the cutting edge twist for this takeover ? or is it as dumb as lifting the price to "X" say $1.00,if so it seems so amatuerish... :iamwithst
shinobi346 said:
Sure I understand what your saying ,but what's got me confused is ...Has Crosby done their homework,or are am I missing the obvious,where's the cutting edge twist for this takeover ? or is it as dumb as lifting the price to "X" say $1.00,if so it seems so amatuerish... :iamwithst
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Fat Prophets StockWatch: Marathon In Demand
July 13 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
Marathon Resources has released encouraging results from exploration drilling on its Mt Gee uranium project in South Australia that point to a likely upgrade in the resource base.
Unfortunately, speculative interest in uranium stocks has waned since earlier this year, during the hype associated with the landmark uranium supply deal signed between Australia and China.
This volatile sentiment unfortunately has overshadowed the very real achievements made by Marathon, which remains one of just a handful of Australian uranium hopefuls in our view with a meaningful prospect of achieving development status.
From an all-time high of $1.45 in April, Marathon has corrected sharply. Just as rallies often become overextended through irrational investor optimism, corrections frequently attract excessive pessimism.
In the case of Marathon, this has seen prices retreat to around 50 cents in the last week.
The company has just received a hostile takeover bid from Crosby Capital Partners, a Hong Kong-based merchant banking group, offering cash consideration of 68 cents a share.
While Crosby’s interest reflects the obvious attractions of Marathon’s uranium assets, we believe the bid is too low and is unlikely to succeed.
Marathon Resources represents a first-class emerging uranium opportunity.
Investors must be diligent and invest only in those uranium companies that have solid assets with a realistic possibility of achieving production status in the near future.
Two things differentiate Marathon from most Australian uranium hopefuls. Firstly, it possesses a large, identified uranium resource that is growing in size; and secondly, its resource is strategically located in South Australia, one of only two states in Australia currently sympathetic to uranium mining and that host uranium mines.
With an advanced and proven uranium resource located in a state with current support for uranium mining, Marathon Resources appears to be in the right place at the right time.
Despite the recent fall out in the uranium sector in Australia, the company has all of the fundamentals in place for long-term success.
Disclosure: Marathon is held in the Fat Prophets portfolio.
Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au
Fat Prophets StockWatch: Marathon In Demand
July 13 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
Marathon Resources has released encouraging results from exploration drilling on its Mt Gee uranium project in South Australia that point to a likely upgrade in the resource base.
Unfortunately, speculative interest in uranium stocks has waned since earlier this year, during the hype associated with the landmark uranium supply deal signed between Australia and China.
This volatile sentiment unfortunately has overshadowed the very real achievements made by Marathon, which remains one of just a handful of Australian uranium hopefuls in our view with a meaningful prospect of achieving development status.
From an all-time high of $1.45 in April, Marathon has corrected sharply. Just as rallies often become overextended through irrational investor optimism, corrections frequently attract excessive pessimism.
In the case of Marathon, this has seen prices retreat to around 50 cents in the last week.
The company has just received a hostile takeover bid from Crosby Capital Partners, a Hong Kong-based merchant banking group, offering cash consideration of 68 cents a share.
While Crosby’s interest reflects the obvious attractions of Marathon’s uranium assets, we believe the bid is too low and is unlikely to succeed.
Marathon Resources represents a first-class emerging uranium opportunity.
Investors must be diligent and invest only in those uranium companies that have solid assets with a realistic possibility of achieving production status in the near future.
Two things differentiate Marathon from most Australian uranium hopefuls. Firstly, it possesses a large, identified uranium resource that is growing in size; and secondly, its resource is strategically located in South Australia, one of only two states in Australia currently sympathetic to uranium mining and that host uranium mines.
With an advanced and proven uranium resource located in a state with current support for uranium mining, Marathon Resources appears to be in the right place at the right time.
Despite the recent fall out in the uranium sector in Australia, the company has all of the fundamentals in place for long-term success.
Disclosure: Marathon is held in the Fat Prophets portfolio.
Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au
Realist
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
I own MTN and am not ramping it. Or even recommending it, do your own research.
But Beazley's "remove the no new mines policy" comments tonite will certainly cause a stir in the price of MTN I would guess. Particularly being in SA a sympathetic state.
With some company wanting to take them over for 68 cents a share a couple of weeks ago and with the price being about $1.30 a few months back and only 72 cents today it certainly seems to me it is going to rise tomorrow.
I own MTN and am not ramping it. Or even recommending it, do your own research.
But Beazley's "remove the no new mines policy" comments tonite will certainly cause a stir in the price of MTN I would guess. Particularly being in SA a sympathetic state.
With some company wanting to take them over for 68 cents a share a couple of weeks ago and with the price being about $1.30 a few months back and only 72 cents today it certainly seems to me it is going to rise tomorrow.
Realist
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Well it is up to 77.5 today, so a pissweak 6.5% increase this week, depsite Uranium being up and Beazley's comments.
Alot of cautious people out there..
Well it is up to 77.5 today, so a pissweak 6.5% increase this week, depsite Uranium being up and Beazley's comments.
Alot of cautious people out there..
Realist
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
The ALP policy will change, it is just a matter of when. I'm betting next year.
MTN is up nicely today.
The ALP policy will change, it is just a matter of when. I'm betting next year.
MTN is up nicely today.
3 veiws of a secret
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Also I would add that the BIG fella from Perth ain't in power ,nor is Midnight Oil !
Still Crosby & Co ,might know something more about MTN then you & I .The plot thickens.
YELNATS said:
Also I would add that the BIG fella from Perth ain't in power ,nor is Midnight Oil !
Still Crosby & Co ,might know something more about MTN then you & I .The plot thickens.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Only just saw this 1 August Announcement , re joint ventures with UraniumSA over 3 of MTNs Central Gawler Craton licences. UraniumSA has also signed JVs with Stellar Resources (SRZ) over ground in the same area.
Arrangements are conditional on a UraniumSA successful IPO later this year, with SRZ and MTN shareholders getting priority, and SRZ & MTN getting shares in UraniumSA.
Zero response on market - but this would perhaps make Crosby bid at current levels even less likely?
Only just saw this 1 August Announcement , re joint ventures with UraniumSA over 3 of MTNs Central Gawler Craton licences. UraniumSA has also signed JVs with Stellar Resources (SRZ) over ground in the same area.
Arrangements are conditional on a UraniumSA successful IPO later this year, with SRZ and MTN shareholders getting priority, and SRZ & MTN getting shares in UraniumSA.
Zero response on market - but this would perhaps make Crosby bid at current levels even less likely?
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
How long will it be before one of those 'Corporate Advisors' for a big Canadian miner like Laramide or Mega realise just how undervalued MTN,
I mean I was just looking through a report on RPT (couldn't attach but here's link http://rcresearch.com.au/documents/ ) and the second graph on page 2 shows MTN as having the 7th Largest JORC Deposit amongst the global Uranium Juniors, it shows Mega paying $100m for RPT's 25mlbs,
So how much is MTN's 75mlbs worth? The same $100m, logic would indicate more, around 3x more given size, however there maybe a higher percieved risk due to lack of confidence in the resource etc, so if an equally confident resource would be valued at $300m (3x RPTs $100m) then due to reduced confidence we apply what a 1/3 disc rate? That still gives $100m
I just don't get why companies like TOE enjoy mkt caps of 4x that of MTN when they are operating in the same area and guess what MTN has a resource and a bloody big one at that!
I've said it from day one, this company is cheap, damn cheap and its a matter of time before it gets snapped up, minimum the company is worth $100m = $2 per share, a succesful bid may have to be a shigh as $150 - $200m to win over directors.
So until a decent offer comes in we'll just have to sit and wait
How long will it be before one of those 'Corporate Advisors' for a big Canadian miner like Laramide or Mega realise just how undervalued MTN,
I mean I was just looking through a report on RPT (couldn't attach but here's link http://rcresearch.com.au/documents/ ) and the second graph on page 2 shows MTN as having the 7th Largest JORC Deposit amongst the global Uranium Juniors, it shows Mega paying $100m for RPT's 25mlbs,
So how much is MTN's 75mlbs worth? The same $100m, logic would indicate more, around 3x more given size, however there maybe a higher percieved risk due to lack of confidence in the resource etc, so if an equally confident resource would be valued at $300m (3x RPTs $100m) then due to reduced confidence we apply what a 1/3 disc rate? That still gives $100m
I just don't get why companies like TOE enjoy mkt caps of 4x that of MTN when they are operating in the same area and guess what MTN has a resource and a bloody big one at that!
I've said it from day one, this company is cheap, damn cheap and its a matter of time before it gets snapped up, minimum the company is worth $100m = $2 per share, a succesful bid may have to be a shigh as $150 - $200m to win over directors.
So until a decent offer comes in we'll just have to sit and wait