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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Looks to open very very strong indeed,
Looks to open very very strong indeed,
NRZ - NeuRizer Ltd
- Thread starter Mistermoon
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
What a great day for MTN, be intersting to see how it performs over this week,
Those drilling results are well overdue!!!! Damn Labs and their backlogs, hurry up!
What a great day for MTN, be intersting to see how it performs over this week,
Those drilling results are well overdue!!!! Damn Labs and their backlogs, hurry up!
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Did anyone attend the sa uranium conference?
I just read it http://www.marathonresources.com.au/pdf/060331_UraniumConf.pdf
and it didn't really show me anything
I also heard a rumour that drilling at Mt Gee had to be completed by Easter,Tourist Season.????
Did anyone attend the sa uranium conference?
I just read it http://www.marathonresources.com.au/pdf/060331_UraniumConf.pdf
and it didn't really show me anything
I also heard a rumour that drilling at Mt Gee had to be completed by Easter,Tourist Season.????
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Its alive, its alive!
Finally market is realising this is one of the few real Uranium Players in the mkt (I didn't say the only but certainly one of only a few who have real potential)
Its alive, its alive!
Finally market is realising this is one of the few real Uranium Players in the mkt (I didn't say the only but certainly one of only a few who have real potential)
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Hmmm I don't think it was just profit taking, I think it was a combination of profit taking and market selling in Uranium,
But that being said, I have re-evaluated my stance on MTN, I originally picked $1.50 + as the price target, but now feel that a true fair value is close to $2.50 ish,
Here's my reasons,
Firstly as has been mentioned many times they have an indicated and inferred resource of
56.6M t grading 0.06% for 33,200t Uranium = 73m lbs Uranium,
Now given that the current drilling is aimed at increasing the confidence, ie perhaps shift some to the measured category,
@ an EV of $2 lb mkt cap should = $150m = about $2.70 MTN,
I have kept saying I think that a Canadian Major would be hard pressed not to want to buy up MTN @ levels up to $2.50 as it is acquiring Uranium very cheap,
Also it is important to note that this resource is for Mt Gee only, no resource Calculation has been undertaken for its Hodkinson Deposits,
In time I think MTN will be able to show that the Mt Gee/Hodgkinson area is one of the best deposits in Australia, the only other deposit in Australia (apart form the 3 current mines (and 4th Honeymoon) that is close is VUL and SMM's Mt Isa deposit which is in QLD.
Also a final thought a few weeks back Uranium was $37.5 a lb today its $41 lb, so say you bought a company which had a JORC deposit of Uranium and you paid an equivalent of say $2.50 per lb uranium, the recent price increase would have covered your acquisition cost,
To put it another way imagine buying a gold company that had a JORC deposit of 1moz and you paid $50m AUD for the company = an EV per oz gold of $50, now when the gold price went from $545 US /oz to $595 you effectively covered the cost of the acquisition,
So the point is in times of commodity price rises the EV per unit of resource has to increase.
Hmmm I don't think it was just profit taking, I think it was a combination of profit taking and market selling in Uranium,
But that being said, I have re-evaluated my stance on MTN, I originally picked $1.50 + as the price target, but now feel that a true fair value is close to $2.50 ish,
Here's my reasons,
Firstly as has been mentioned many times they have an indicated and inferred resource of
56.6M t grading 0.06% for 33,200t Uranium = 73m lbs Uranium,
Now given that the current drilling is aimed at increasing the confidence, ie perhaps shift some to the measured category,
@ an EV of $2 lb mkt cap should = $150m = about $2.70 MTN,
I have kept saying I think that a Canadian Major would be hard pressed not to want to buy up MTN @ levels up to $2.50 as it is acquiring Uranium very cheap,
Also it is important to note that this resource is for Mt Gee only, no resource Calculation has been undertaken for its Hodkinson Deposits,
In time I think MTN will be able to show that the Mt Gee/Hodgkinson area is one of the best deposits in Australia, the only other deposit in Australia (apart form the 3 current mines (and 4th Honeymoon) that is close is VUL and SMM's Mt Isa deposit which is in QLD.
Also a final thought a few weeks back Uranium was $37.5 a lb today its $41 lb, so say you bought a company which had a JORC deposit of Uranium and you paid an equivalent of say $2.50 per lb uranium, the recent price increase would have covered your acquisition cost,
To put it another way imagine buying a gold company that had a JORC deposit of 1moz and you paid $50m AUD for the company = an EV per oz gold of $50, now when the gold price went from $545 US /oz to $595 you effectively covered the cost of the acquisition,
So the point is in times of commodity price rises the EV per unit of resource has to increase.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Anyone here a Fat Prophets subscriber?
If so have the published a report on MTN yet?
ie what exactly does Gavin Wendt think?
Most analysts believe the uranium story has been overbought, but Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt has a clear favourite in Marathon Resources.
"The company is one of only a handful of Australian uranium hopefuls that, in our view, have a meaningful prospect of achieving mining status," says Wendt.
The stock hit a new intraday high of $1.17 yesterday, about double what it was in February.
Wendt says two things differentiated Marathon from most uranium hopefuls. First, it possessed a large identified resource; second, its resource was located in South Australia, a state sympathetic to uranium mining.
Anyone here a Fat Prophets subscriber?
If so have the published a report on MTN yet?
ie what exactly does Gavin Wendt think?
Most analysts believe the uranium story has been overbought, but Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt has a clear favourite in Marathon Resources.
"The company is one of only a handful of Australian uranium hopefuls that, in our view, have a meaningful prospect of achieving mining status," says Wendt.
The stock hit a new intraday high of $1.17 yesterday, about double what it was in February.
Wendt says two things differentiated Marathon from most uranium hopefuls. First, it possessed a large identified resource; second, its resource was located in South Australia, a state sympathetic to uranium mining.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Kgee, you been quite since we sorted out the whole Hetigage issue,
But according to their presentation Mt Gee driling is still underway,
How much longer? Don't think it can be too much longer they started in Early Feb, its been almost 2 months the drilling should have been finished by Mid March, give 2-3 weeks for lab assays and stuff sets this week or next at the latest as an announcement time.
The principal purpose of the program is to investigate extensions of the deposit as the current model suggests its further continuation in each direction. The drilling will also increase confidence in the results of drilling by
previous explorers, and enhance the resource estimate through the provision of additional data.
My guess is they're feeding assays into Computer Modeling to build new resource Calculation, which will have a much higher confidence, ie move more to indicated category.
kgee said:
Kgee, you been quite since we sorted out the whole Hetigage issue,
But according to their presentation Mt Gee driling is still underway,
How much longer? Don't think it can be too much longer they started in Early Feb, its been almost 2 months the drilling should have been finished by Mid March, give 2-3 weeks for lab assays and stuff sets this week or next at the latest as an announcement time.
The principal purpose of the program is to investigate extensions of the deposit as the current model suggests its further continuation in each direction. The drilling will also increase confidence in the results of drilling by
previous explorers, and enhance the resource estimate through the provision of additional data.
My guess is they're feeding assays into Computer Modeling to build new resource Calculation, which will have a much higher confidence, ie move more to indicated category.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
I would be very suprised if there is no ann regarding drilling, Mt Gee/Hodgkinson, assays, resource calc something,
They have been far too quite over at MTN, but then I guess thats their philosophy, its not a sprint its a Marathon, slow and steady wins the race
I would be very suprised if there is no ann regarding drilling, Mt Gee/Hodgkinson, assays, resource calc something,
They have been far too quite over at MTN, but then I guess thats their philosophy, its not a sprint its a Marathon, slow and steady wins the race
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Hi Young trader,yeah I hope those results are out soon...I see you posted on the NZ site...It almost felt unethical that I post your work there especially when I was getting thanks for it...I look forward to following this debate
I haven't rang yet ...I have their phone no. in front of me but are a little hesitant to hear what they say...I'm guessing it'll be a "we can niether confirm or deny" ....which could leed to another kiwi nucleur boycott!
By the way nice going on BKY I put a buy order in this morning but missed out when I checked this afternoon 26% in one day ...I might start following your post's a little closer
Hi Young trader,yeah I hope those results are out soon...I see you posted on the NZ site...It almost felt unethical that I post your work there especially when I was getting thanks for it...I look forward to following this debate
I haven't rang yet ...I have their phone no. in front of me but are a little hesitant to hear what they say...I'm guessing it'll be a "we can niether confirm or deny" ....which could leed to another kiwi nucleur boycott!
By the way nice going on BKY I put a buy order in this morning but missed out when I checked this afternoon 26% in one day ...I might start following your post's a little closer
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Good to know that my views are shared by others, but they are seriously overlooking BKY!!!!!
Uranium hopefuls
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
April 11, 2006
THE current valuations being ascribed to even the most rag-tag uranium hopefuls might look reasonable in a decade's time. But it's just as likely that we've solved the Middle East's woes and sent a man to Mars by then as well.
The truth is: even if another ripper uranium resource is proved up, there's bugger-all prospect of an Australian mine being built (and approvals granted) in that period.
While the world will clamour for more uranium, shorter-term demand is likely to be satisfied by known new mines and existing projects, such as BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam.
Even Rio Tinto's Leigh Clifford - who's now known for pontificating on commodity prices - warns the current $US40 a pound uranium price - which has almost doubled in the past year - cannot be sustained.
He notes the planned new nuclear power plants - such as the 40 slated by the Chinese - could take a decade to fire up.
Clifford's salient warning is supported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, which forecasts a modest 1 per cent per annum uptick in uranium demand over the next five years.
ABARE forecasts that the value of Australia's uranium exports will decline to $521 million by 2010-11, compared with $712 million in 2005-06.
"Despite recent significant increases in expenditure on uranium exploration, uranium production over the outlook period is expected to be largely dictated by production from existing operations," ABARE says.
While there's a big global supply/demand gap, the void is filled by recycling material from decommissioned bombs and reprocessing spent fuel.
There's also new production this year: Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich project in Namibia (1180 tonnes per year) and the Zarechnoye mine in Kazakhstan (590 tonnes).
Next year, it's Southern Cross Resources' Dominion project in South Africa (1800 tonnes), while Cameco (the world's biggest producer) is expanding output at its existing Cigar Lake operation in Canada.
As with all manias, investors are spoiled for choice in terms of options to do their dough. At least 40 listed miners claim a uranium exposure. Dozens have packaged up their uranium tenements (or, strictly speaking, patches of dirt where uranium might reside) and flogged them off.
Oxiana, for instance, spun off Toro Resources (TOE) at 20c on March 24. Toro only yesterday announced the start of its drilling program, but that didn't stop the stock leaping to a high of $1.60 in late March. TOE stock yesterday closed 5.5c better at $1.22.
The uranium mania has been fuelled by political developments which look promising, but might be red herrings more than anything.
First, Labor's likely rethink on its "three mines" stance could remove a 20-year impediment to the sector's development. Labor governs in the relevant states of South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, but expect them to handpass the hot potato into the calloused hands of their federal comrades.
Criterion suspects Labor's policy will change, given Australia has $32 billion of current uranium reserves. Alternatively, Labor is likely to be voted out of office in at least one of these states over the next decade, with Queensland looking the most vulnerable.
In the shorter term, it's more important for miners to prove up a resource for the politicians and greenies to argue over.
Uranium enthusiasts have also been heartened by the feds' agreement with China, to allow the Chinese to buy yellowcake and explore for the stuff here.
Hmm, very promising. But once again, the existing mines will fill the short-term demand. China did sign an exploration deal with Uranium Exploration (UNX), but there's more than a sneaking suspicion it's more interested in Uranex's Tanzanian ground.
Criterion ascribes a SELL recommendation to a whole sector: uranium explorers with no proven resources and little hope of achieving production.
It's a bit tough to tar all the players with the "overvalued" brush, but the valuations look crazy. At the very least, there's no way of knowing whether they're ridiculous or not.
Examples are Toro, UNX (38.5c), Nova Energy (NEL, $1.74), Encounter Resources (ENR, 60.5C) and Globe Uranium (GBE, 55c).
Paladin (PDN) should make good money from Langer Heinrich and its Malawi project will probably get off the ground.
But Paladin's market cap stands at $2.1 billion: more than the value ascribed to the Seven Network, Unitab, Dyno Nobel or the soon-to-be-producing Bendigo Mining.
A handful are worthy of a SPECULATIVE BUY. Summit Resources (SMM) has a proven ore body at its Mt Isa project: 22,100 tonnes of "measured and indicated resources". It's the local deposit most likely to be developed.
Marathon Resources (MTN, $1.07) has 33,000 tonnes of inferred resources at its Mt Gee tenement in the Flinders Ranges.
"Marathon Resources appears to be in the right place at the right time," says stock-picker Fat Prophets.
Another investor says: "Marathon has run ahead of itself. Needs to do more work."
Compass Resources (CMR, $2.35) also earns Brownie points for looking in the right place: the Rum Jungle field in the Northern Territory, which supplied Cold War uranium to the British and Americans before being forgotten for four decades.
Monaro Resources (MRO $1.06) is taking a different tack and looking to the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia's traditional source of uranium.
Monaro is still setting up, but boasts the biggest acreage in the consonant-rich republic. As well as being deficient in vowels, Kyrgyz also lacks the usual pesky environmental standards and red tape.
Alternatively, investors could forget about the blue sky and stick with ERA, the only dedicated uranium producer.
The trouble is, ERA's output is subject to long-term contracts well below current spot prices. Over time, these contracts will be rewritten at higher prices, so uranium's old-timer will be able to join the party.
ERA shares look fully valued at $15 but we rate them a LONG-TERM BUY.
Criterion subscribes to uranium watcher (and Monaro chairman) Warwick Grigor's view that investors should hold back for more drilling results.
His rule of thumb is that anyone with a 1000-tonne plus resource is worth a look at.
Grigor believes uranium is not just a cyclical play, but will benefit from sustained long-term energy demand.
The world certainly can't rely on wind farms if those orange-bellied parrots keep flying in the way.
Grigor adds: "I think the sector needs to play it cool for a little while." Indeed.
borehamt@theaustralian.com.au
The Australian accepts no responsibility for stock recommendations. Readers should contact a licensed financial adviser. The author does not hold shares in the above-mentioned companies.
Good to know that my views are shared by others, but they are seriously overlooking BKY!!!!!
Uranium hopefuls
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
April 11, 2006
THE current valuations being ascribed to even the most rag-tag uranium hopefuls might look reasonable in a decade's time. But it's just as likely that we've solved the Middle East's woes and sent a man to Mars by then as well.
The truth is: even if another ripper uranium resource is proved up, there's bugger-all prospect of an Australian mine being built (and approvals granted) in that period.
While the world will clamour for more uranium, shorter-term demand is likely to be satisfied by known new mines and existing projects, such as BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam.
Even Rio Tinto's Leigh Clifford - who's now known for pontificating on commodity prices - warns the current $US40 a pound uranium price - which has almost doubled in the past year - cannot be sustained.
He notes the planned new nuclear power plants - such as the 40 slated by the Chinese - could take a decade to fire up.
Clifford's salient warning is supported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, which forecasts a modest 1 per cent per annum uptick in uranium demand over the next five years.
ABARE forecasts that the value of Australia's uranium exports will decline to $521 million by 2010-11, compared with $712 million in 2005-06.
"Despite recent significant increases in expenditure on uranium exploration, uranium production over the outlook period is expected to be largely dictated by production from existing operations," ABARE says.
While there's a big global supply/demand gap, the void is filled by recycling material from decommissioned bombs and reprocessing spent fuel.
There's also new production this year: Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich project in Namibia (1180 tonnes per year) and the Zarechnoye mine in Kazakhstan (590 tonnes).
Next year, it's Southern Cross Resources' Dominion project in South Africa (1800 tonnes), while Cameco (the world's biggest producer) is expanding output at its existing Cigar Lake operation in Canada.
As with all manias, investors are spoiled for choice in terms of options to do their dough. At least 40 listed miners claim a uranium exposure. Dozens have packaged up their uranium tenements (or, strictly speaking, patches of dirt where uranium might reside) and flogged them off.
Oxiana, for instance, spun off Toro Resources (TOE) at 20c on March 24. Toro only yesterday announced the start of its drilling program, but that didn't stop the stock leaping to a high of $1.60 in late March. TOE stock yesterday closed 5.5c better at $1.22.
The uranium mania has been fuelled by political developments which look promising, but might be red herrings more than anything.
First, Labor's likely rethink on its "three mines" stance could remove a 20-year impediment to the sector's development. Labor governs in the relevant states of South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, but expect them to handpass the hot potato into the calloused hands of their federal comrades.
Criterion suspects Labor's policy will change, given Australia has $32 billion of current uranium reserves. Alternatively, Labor is likely to be voted out of office in at least one of these states over the next decade, with Queensland looking the most vulnerable.
In the shorter term, it's more important for miners to prove up a resource for the politicians and greenies to argue over.
Uranium enthusiasts have also been heartened by the feds' agreement with China, to allow the Chinese to buy yellowcake and explore for the stuff here.
Hmm, very promising. But once again, the existing mines will fill the short-term demand. China did sign an exploration deal with Uranium Exploration (UNX), but there's more than a sneaking suspicion it's more interested in Uranex's Tanzanian ground.
Criterion ascribes a SELL recommendation to a whole sector: uranium explorers with no proven resources and little hope of achieving production.
It's a bit tough to tar all the players with the "overvalued" brush, but the valuations look crazy. At the very least, there's no way of knowing whether they're ridiculous or not.
Examples are Toro, UNX (38.5c), Nova Energy (NEL, $1.74), Encounter Resources (ENR, 60.5C) and Globe Uranium (GBE, 55c).
Paladin (PDN) should make good money from Langer Heinrich and its Malawi project will probably get off the ground.
But Paladin's market cap stands at $2.1 billion: more than the value ascribed to the Seven Network, Unitab, Dyno Nobel or the soon-to-be-producing Bendigo Mining.
A handful are worthy of a SPECULATIVE BUY. Summit Resources (SMM) has a proven ore body at its Mt Isa project: 22,100 tonnes of "measured and indicated resources". It's the local deposit most likely to be developed.
Marathon Resources (MTN, $1.07) has 33,000 tonnes of inferred resources at its Mt Gee tenement in the Flinders Ranges.
"Marathon Resources appears to be in the right place at the right time," says stock-picker Fat Prophets.
Another investor says: "Marathon has run ahead of itself. Needs to do more work."
Compass Resources (CMR, $2.35) also earns Brownie points for looking in the right place: the Rum Jungle field in the Northern Territory, which supplied Cold War uranium to the British and Americans before being forgotten for four decades.
Monaro Resources (MRO $1.06) is taking a different tack and looking to the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia's traditional source of uranium.
Monaro is still setting up, but boasts the biggest acreage in the consonant-rich republic. As well as being deficient in vowels, Kyrgyz also lacks the usual pesky environmental standards and red tape.
Alternatively, investors could forget about the blue sky and stick with ERA, the only dedicated uranium producer.
The trouble is, ERA's output is subject to long-term contracts well below current spot prices. Over time, these contracts will be rewritten at higher prices, so uranium's old-timer will be able to join the party.
ERA shares look fully valued at $15 but we rate them a LONG-TERM BUY.
Criterion subscribes to uranium watcher (and Monaro chairman) Warwick Grigor's view that investors should hold back for more drilling results.
His rule of thumb is that anyone with a 1000-tonne plus resource is worth a look at.
Grigor believes uranium is not just a cyclical play, but will benefit from sustained long-term energy demand.
The world certainly can't rely on wind farms if those orange-bellied parrots keep flying in the way.
Grigor adds: "I think the sector needs to play it cool for a little while." Indeed.
borehamt@theaustralian.com.au
The Australian accepts no responsibility for stock recommendations. Readers should contact a licensed financial adviser. The author does not hold shares in the above-mentioned companies.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Looks like it will hold around the $1.07 - $1.20 mark until drilling is out,
Damn results are sure taking their time, surely they can't be too far away,
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Looks like it will hold around the $1.07 - $1.20 mark until drilling is out,
Damn results are sure taking their time, surely they can't be too far away,
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
Are they there yet?
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Lots of holders are getting impatient and I can't really blame them, drilling results are well overdue,
I hear that they are due out at the end of the month but will the market notice?
I think investors will, but the pure speculators and punters have left the Uranium scene for a bit,
The Uranium supply shortage is not going away, it is a fuel of the future (medium term) and thus I still firmly believe that if a major is smart enough they will acquire a company which controls a huge deposit, I would call Mt Gee a huge deposit being in Australia's top 10, so am confident that one day a take over/ JV bid/offer will come along.
With a mkt cap of $55m and 70m lbs of Uranium (with upside) its still trading at under $1 per lb and still represents the most undervalued EV play on the mkt
Lots of holders are getting impatient and I can't really blame them, drilling results are well overdue,
I hear that they are due out at the end of the month but will the market notice?
I think investors will, but the pure speculators and punters have left the Uranium scene for a bit,
The Uranium supply shortage is not going away, it is a fuel of the future (medium term) and thus I still firmly believe that if a major is smart enough they will acquire a company which controls a huge deposit, I would call Mt Gee a huge deposit being in Australia's top 10, so am confident that one day a take over/ JV bid/offer will come along.
With a mkt cap of $55m and 70m lbs of Uranium (with upside) its still trading at under $1 per lb and still represents the most undervalued EV play on the mkt
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Same here.
Got it at 1.075.
Collapse since...
any idea what happen?
no announcement or anything? :swear:
Same here.
Got it at 1.075.
Collapse since...
any idea what happen?
no announcement or anything? :swear:
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Did you read my post?
The martket is Fed up with waiting for drilling results, it was a snowballl effect, once $1.07 (strong suppot) was broken, it began a downtrend, with today's movements it looks very shaky, when they arrive it will be interesting to see how stock performs
Long term its still the most undervalued play in Uranium on an EV basis, so says Patersons and Fat Prophets
Did you read my post?
The martket is Fed up with waiting for drilling results, it was a snowballl effect, once $1.07 (strong suppot) was broken, it began a downtrend, with today's movements it looks very shaky, when they arrive it will be interesting to see how stock performs
Long term its still the most undervalued play in Uranium on an EV basis, so says Patersons and Fat Prophets
YOUNG_TRADER said:
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
I did read ur post.
That why buy on support level.
Yet, still no news at all.
Hope there will be something good this week.
I did read ur post.
That why buy on support level.
Yet, still no news at all.
Hope there will be something good this week.
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Stock is taking a beating, market seems to be Totaly Fed Up waiting for drilling,
I keep saying long term is great, but am going to use charts for buy signal short term,
Stock is taking a beating, market seems to be Totaly Fed Up waiting for drilling,
I keep saying long term is great, but am going to use charts for buy signal short term,
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
I'm going to keep holding.
I know if I sell it'll immediately go up
I only have a $2000 parcel of MTN, so the downside of losing half or more of it isnt that bad.
I missed out on TZN @ 99c last week, and thought I'd missed the train. Obviously I was wrong! So I'll just pray for MTN instead
I'm going to keep holding.
I know if I sell it'll immediately go up
I only have a $2000 parcel of MTN, so the downside of losing half or more of it isnt that bad.
I missed out on TZN @ 99c last week, and thought I'd missed the train. Obviously I was wrong! So I'll just pray for MTN instead
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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources
Same here.
Hopefully news will come soon.
Same here.
Hopefully news will come soon.