Expect to see your name in that list in the next few years Nizar.No pressure
Nizar.
You'll get facts like these in all areas of Business (trading is/should) be treated as a business.
Some have incredible success starting with nothing.
Many fail---then try again--fail once more and try again.
Some start with considerable sums then build them to fantastic sums---Kerry Packer and now son James.
With 99% of truely fantastic success stories I have found that in the end its the ability to be Entrepenurial which sorts the "Joe Averages" out from the truely successful.
Many traders will only ever have the "Deli" type business returns.
Few will be come the Packers in this business.
Somewhere in between will suit most of us just fine!
Yeh true the beauty of trading is that its a noncapital-intensive business (lol actually it can be if you lose money! LOL), what i mean is that start up cost can be minimal, yet you can still do well.
Property development many people prefer it but you need more than a few Gs to start.
While we admire these great results from many who are deserved - remember that every week some idiot wins a $1,000,000 beating the odds on a 1-48,000,000 bet on the lotto.
Dont be fooled by randomness...
http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/1587990717
I was thinking along the same lines myself.While we admire these great results from many who are deserved - remember that every week some idiot wins a $1,000,000 beating the odds on a 1-48,000,000 bet on the lotto.
Dont be fooled by randomness...
http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/1587990717
"idiot?"
Please quantify your reasoning behind referring to a lottery winner as an "idiot".
Disclaimer: I have not won the lottery although I maybe an idiot.
Skill or luck?
He had to put himself in the situation to get the luck, but there is still luck involved.
It's a bit of both usually, but some are just lucky. (and I can prove it with excel)
Different concept.I heard a saying once.
The harder you work, the luckier you get.
I heard a saying once.
The harder you work, the luckier you get.
Decision-making and behavioral biases
Many of these biases are studied for how they affect belief formation and business decisions and scientific research.
* Bandwagon effect ”” the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias.
* Bias blind spot ”” the tendency not to compensate for one's own cognitive biases.
* Choice-supportive bias ”” the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.
* Confirmation bias ”” the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
* Congruence bias ”” the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses.
* Contrast effect ”” the enhancement or diminishment of a weight or other measurement when compared with recently observed contrasting object.
* Déformation professionnelle ”” the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one's own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.
* Endowment effect ”” "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it".[1]
* Focusing effect ”” prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.
* Hyperbolic discounting ”” the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are.
* Illusion of control ”” the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes that they clearly cannot.
* Impact bias ”” the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.
* Information bias ”” the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.
* Loss aversion ”” "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it".[2] (see also sunk cost effects and Endowment effect).
* Neglect of probability ”” the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.
* Mere exposure effect ”” the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them.
* Omission bias ”” The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).
* Outcome bias ”” the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
* Planning fallacy ”” the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.
* Post-purchase rationalization ”” the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
* Pseudocertainty effect ”” the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.
* Reactance - the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to reassert a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.
* Selective perception ”” the tendency for expectations to affect perception.
* Status quo bias ”” the tendency for people to like things to stay relatively the same (see also Loss aversion and Endowment effect).[3]
* Von Restorff effect ”” the tendency for an item that "stands out like a sore thumb" to be more likely to be remembered than other items.
* Zero-risk bias ”” preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.
[edit] Biases in probability and belief
Many of these biases are often studied for how they affect business and economic decisions and how they affect experimental research.
* Ambiguity effect ”” the avoidance of options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown".
* Anchoring ”” the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
* Anthropic bias ”” the tendency for one's evidence to be biased by observation selection effects.
* Attentional bias ”” neglect of relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association.
* Availability heuristic ”” a biased prediction, due to the tendency to focus on the most salient and emotionally-charged outcome.
* Clustering illusion ”” the tendency to see patterns where actually none exist.
* Conjunction fallacy ”” the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.
* Gambler's fallacy ”” the tendency to assume that individual random events are influenced by previous random events. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin so many times that tails is bound to come up sooner or later."
* Hindsight bias ”” sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the inclination to see past events as being predictable.
* Illusory correlation ”” beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect.
* Ludic fallacy ”” the analysis of chance related problems with the narrow frame of games. Ignoring the complexity of reality, and the non-gaussian distribution of many things.
* Neglect of prior base rates effect ”” the tendency to fail to incorporate prior known probabilities which are pertinent to the decision at hand.
* Observer-expectancy effect ”” when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect).
* Optimism bias ”” the systematic tendency to be over-optimistic about the outcome of planned actions.
* Overconfidence effect ”” the tendency to overestimate one's own abilities.
* Positive outcome bias ”” a tendency in prediction to overestimate the probability of good things happening to them (see also wishful thinking, optimism bias and valence effect).
* Primacy effect ”” the tendency to weigh initial events more than subsequent events.
* Recency effect ”” the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also peak-end rule).
* Reminiscence bump ”” the effect that people tend to recall more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than from other lifetime periods.
* Rosy retrospection ”” the tendency to rate past events more positively than they had actually rated them when the event occurred.
* Subadditivity effect ”” the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.
* Telescoping effect ”” the effect that recent events appear to have occurred more remotely and remote events appear to have occurred more recently.
* Texas sharpshooter fallacy ”” the fallacy of selecting or adjusting a hypothesis after the data are collected, making it impossible to test the hypothesis fairly.
etc etc etc
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