NMS - Neptune Marine Services

oldblue · 5 February 2009

Thanks, m.

The interesting thing is that Macquarie's shareholding has gradually dropped from 26.8% in December, 2006 to 16.3% in January, 2009. Even the lower figure though shows some faith in NMS' prospects. I would think that Macq would have been long gone if they couldn't see some value.

son of baglimit · 5 February 2009

oh dear old blue - NMS have repeatedly had share issues since then........

60c raising
95c raising
tens of millions for the previous owners of the companies they acquired.

the only shares macbank have sold were aug/sep08 (as per recent ann)

about 2m of them.

oldblue · 5 February 2009

Don't wish to quibble but the latest sale was around 2m shares, disclosed on 12 January, 2009.

Quite right, though, that the successive issues for acquisitions have naturally reduced Macquarie's holding as a percentage.
As indicated, I'm waiting to see some strength in the SP before I join them.

son of baglimit · 5 February 2009

very correct oldblue - but the sales WERE aug/sep 08, at between 50-60c, then not disclosed til jan 12.

see the ann for details.

oldblue · 6 February 2009

Thanks for straightening me out on this, s.o.b.

It's a strange system that allows 4 months to report a change - hardly keeping the market informed, if that is the ostensible purpose of the notice.

maungatapu · 23 February 2009

son of baglimit said:
despite another beautiful set of numbers reported in the december quarterly cashflow report, this stock continues to provide little interest to traders & analysts, typified by the continued lack of posts in this forum.
other forums continue to have occasional posts from a hard core of devotees, but in general the stock is ignored.

does anyone want to suggest what it will take for an increase in interest ?

is it revenues thru contracts, is it profits, is it dividends, is it greater share turnover, anyone ?

Have just had a look at Neptunes investor info page. The last Paterson's report is Feb 2008. Surely another one has been put out since then. Maybe NMS is partly responsible for lack of interest.
If you have a look at the 50 day M A for volume, in Nov 2008 it was 750,000 now it is 350,000. It appears to me that NMS has dropped off investors shopping list and that mainly traders are trading it.
While the price of oil is trading between $30/$50 a barrel I don't think NMS's share price is going to take off.

son of baglimit · 23 February 2009

maungatapu said:
Have just had a look at Neptunes investor info page. The last Paterson's report is Feb 2008. Surely another one has been put out since then. Maybe NMS is partly responsible for lack of interest.
If you have a look at the 50 day M A for volume, in Nov 2008 it was 750,000 now it is 350,000. It appears to me that NMS has dropped off investors shopping list and that mainly traders are trading it.
While the price of oil is trading between $30/$50 a barrel I don't think NMS's share price is going to take off.

re:the patersons report - click on it and youll find its actually june 08 - the lazy IT person didnt update the heading. but very true, their lack of info is partly responsible for the current SP - which in some ways is great
the final point is regretably something NMS have to live with, due to lazy analysts and folk who cannot research for themselves - NMS are immune to the oil price, and they rely on the work the majors hand out, whether it be new fields (when the price is high) or maintenance work (when the price is low). either way they are busy. this week HY report should reveal a lot.

Fleeta · 27 February 2009

Any comments on the half year result. I thought it was quite positive, but obviously the market didn't agree. EPS for a half year of 4.3c and confident about second half improving puts PE ratio at about 3.6! Screams bargain to me on that basis. What am I missing?

son of baglimit · 27 February 2009

hey fleeta - you aint missing anything.

a few possibilities, but consensus is a fund manager is raising cash for redemptions and so is offloading their NMS holding (amongst others of course) to pay the people. they chose results day to ensure the price at least remained stable and didnt sink with their selloff.

buying opp is all it is now.

have you noticed WOR, CLO & MRM all climbing now, a few days after their results.

jpldavis · 3 March 2009

Not sure if folks following NMS have seen that there is a new analyst report on the NMS website from Bell Potter dated 5/02/09.

maungatapu · 6 March 2009

NMS now on the SP 300. Should start to get on some of these fund managers radar. The Bell Potter report is provides a good introduction to those not familiar with NMS's activities. What a difference between Bell Potter's valuation and Pattersons. 42c & 85c respectively. I notice Patterson's report has been removed.

son of baglimit · 6 March 2009

https://secure.psl.com.au/library/YMD090303.pdf

its likely a new report is out, considering they get a mention in patersons daily wrap. go to the 5th page.

price target 62c.

Plasmapark · 12 March 2009

son of baglimit said:
https://secure.psl.com.au/library/YMD090303.pdf

its likely a new report is out, considering they get a mention in patersons daily wrap. go to the 5th page.

price target 62c.

Jeez, haven't times changed.
Target of 62c.....doesn't seem that long ago we were getting excited by a 95c purchase plan and, thinking it was a great way to start the year. (2008)
Yup......times certainly have changed.:

maungatapu · 12 March 2009

Good report on NMS site by ABN*AMRO Morgan. 12 month forecast of 39c. Concern of earnouts impacting on EPS growth.

maungatapu · 13 March 2009

NMS up 7.9% on turnover of 1.1m shares. Hasn't traded that many for a while.
Oceaneering up 8.5% Schlumberger up 3% S&P/ASX 200 Energy index up 2.7%.
Steady uptrend on energy index developing. All good news.
Anyone got any ideas on what criteria the earn out agreements are based?

Santoro · 18 March 2009

Neptune up 6%+ on significant volume of 11 million shares, anyone (SoB) have any ideas about the 5.25 million dollar trade that passed through this afternoon.
There are significant buys in the queue although these may dissappear prior to 10:00 tomorrow, is this related to recent investor presentations or the low P/E this company has in relation to its excellent growth figures recently announced.

Reached the ABN AMRO price target of 0.39c rather quick.

Disc: HOLDING

son of baglimit · 18 March 2009

santoro - your guess is as good as mine.

try this on for size.........

the 3 big trades - 3150000 + 5250000 + 1597264 = 9997264 nearly match the balance owned by the former owners of sea struct, acquired by nms - one of them, tim howard, vanished from the top20 issued by nms for 28 feb....see nms website.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080501/pdf/318xk0dhsxqkl0.pdf
as per this ann on 1/5/08, they were escrowed til 28/4/09.
whether this is some restructuring of his (and others) holdings prior to some good news, who knows.

just thought id put it out there.

maungatapu · 19 March 2009

son of baglimit said:
santoro - your guess is as good as mine.

try this on for size.........

the 3 big trades - 3150000 + 5250000 + 1597264 = 9997264 nearly match the balance owned by the former owners of sea struct, acquired by nms - one of them, tim howard, vanished from the top20 issued by nms for 28 feb....see nms website.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080501/pdf/318xk0dhsxqkl0.pdf
as per this ann on 1/5/08, they were escrowed til 28/4/09.
whether this is some restructuring of his (and others) holdings prior to some good news, who knows.

just thought id put it out there.

Macquarie has just sold off 10m shares. Hence the large trades. Wonder why?
Would love to know who is buying. SP is still rising.

orr · 20 March 2009

maungatapu said:
Macquarie has just sold off 10m shares. Hence the large trades. Wonder why?
Would love to know who is buying. SP is still rising.

Is it possible, in inference, that the sales that have been off loaded are to "someone" they know, or someone they don't.

Plasmapark · 20 March 2009

maungatapu said:
Macquarie has just sold off 10m shares. Hence the large trades. Wonder why?
Would love to know who is buying. SP is still rising.

The millionaires factory is starting to tank, hence the shedding.
Not just NMS that's being sold either.

NMS - Neptune Marine Services

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