Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NMS - Neptune Marine Services

My Take on NMS sp FWIW
It doesn’t take much to peruse the market as whole to see that even good stocks have copped a hiding and anything that has not met or bettered earnings expectations has come under the microscope and been whipped. Have a quick gander at QBE e.g. 1.9B profit when the market was looking for 2.1b. QBE – astute management spent cash reducing business risks going forward. Go figure that!
MRM is down nearly 50% from its previous high. The list is long and the type of share getting hammered is not restricted to ‘specs’. Only shares doing well atm are the agricultural companies.
NMS sp slide imo is due to the following reasons – it’s not an exhaustive list either!
1. HY earnings not overly exciting although nothing terminal or too worrisome.
2. Huge volume of margin calls on retail investors. Therefore, cash is bound to be taken from holdings such as NMS (low LVR on NMS becomes a big weight on a leveraged portfolio) and used to prop up flagging long term blue chips.
3. Most sellers have probably been, imo, those who bought in before the spp and then participated in the spp. Fact is most probably participated in the spp on the earlier preceding positive price (alliteration – got to love it!) momentum without having a sound knowledge of the company i.e. they haven’t been reading SOB’s and others outstanding and long standing research. No evidence of big insto sales i.e. no 3B’s stating this at least.

Stick with it ladies and gents if this gets to 0.50 then pig out. Just think back to when it was over $1.20 – I used to curse myself for not grabbing more when it was in the $0.50 range – now it is – I’m going to grab some more. Might get some options as well although they look tightly held atm. :D
 
I see from S and P's recent Quarterly Index Rebalance that NMS has been added to the All Ordinaries.
That can't hurt the SP!

:)
 
Sophie Sweet

Thanks for the link. This is interesting news. I think you are misreading the announcement - NMS have been admitted to the All Ord's not the ASX300.
 
Sophie Sweet

Thanks for the link. This is interesting news. I think you are misreading the announcement - NMS have been admitted to the All Ord's not the ASX300.

That's right.
It's the All Ords not the ASX300.
Announcement covers changes to the various indices but lists them under their headings. NMS definitely to the All Ords.

:)
 
The all ord's are the top 500 companies.

From S&P website:

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries represents the 500 largest companies in the Australian equities market. Index constituents are drawn from eligible companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Liquidity is not considered as a criteria for inclusion except for foreign domiciled companies.

From the methodology PDF - Frequency section on page 14 - the All ord's is rebalanced annually on the third Friday of March (announcements are made on the first Friday of the month to give two weeks notice).

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.family/indices_ei_au/2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.html
 
Sheesh.....Purchased back in Jan 07 at 53.....
March 11/08....back to 53....not so funny times!!!!!
I bet the sellers of Subsea Developments are overjoyed their shares have been released from escrow....:banghead:
 
I find myself in a funny state of mind. I picked up more at 53 but I am not at all happy about it. Probably cos I am so worried that 52 won't be the bottom.
We can only hope that the shares released from escrow are not offloaded as this won't help things.

How do we go from 1.30 to 52, same company, same team, same focus!?:banghead:
This market is completely f*cked!:horse:
 
I find myself in a funny state of mind. I picked up more at 53 but I am not at all happy about it. Probably cos I am so worried that 52 won't be the bottom.
We can only hope that the shares released from escrow are not offloaded as this won't help things.

How do we go from 1.30 to 52, same company, same team, same focus!?:banghead:
This market is completely f*cked!:horse:

look at it this way shaunm - if the former owners of subsea DONT SELL, cos they are still involved in the company AND see what a bright future we have in store, then that acts as a positive, true ?

remember they got a ****load of cash with the transaction - not as if they are short of a quid.
 
look at it this way shaunm - if the former owners of subsea DONT SELL, cos they are still involved in the company AND see what a bright future we have in store, then that acts as a positive, true ?

remember they got a ****load of cash with the transaction - not as if they are short of a quid.

I absolutely agree. It's just all the other knobs out there who seem happy to let it go for such a low price. Granted it's good for those who want to pick it up at a bargain, but sheesh it's hard always seeing "red" in the protfolio list.

I guess we're all hanging for that light at the end of the tunnel.

Holding strong but "dayumm" these is testing times!
 
Relax, shaunm.
We're in the throes of a nasty bear market! OK , havn't seen one for a while so tend to forget that they come round every now and again. Sooner or later the good companies will start to show us a bit of green again.

;)
 
With the ability to get finance drying up, billions of dollars (with a multiplier of 10) disappearing it is having an effect on the stockmarket as quite simply there is less capital out there for the same amount of shares.

The problem is when will it stop, this bear market could go on for months...years....

But hey...we got a boat !!! :cautious:

NMS need to start getting more contracts and larger contracts at that. I think this is more important than further acquisitions unless it can add signicant work. NMS has expanded globally, has quality assets but needs to grow organically from this base. We need to see the O & G sector continue spending money and turning up on NMS books.

It is a tough ride but I am hanging in there, this is my largest holding. :eek:

[I appreciate all the great posts and research you all contribute to this thread.] :D
 
Porper my man...NMS is calling...

How is that downtrend going?

EW waves telling us the 5th is completed?

I'm still looking to get some more NMS...gotta pick the flows :cool:
 
http://abare.gov.au/publications_html/ac/ac_08/ac_march08.pdf

see attached an extract from the above link - refers to the supply & demand for oil & gas, both in australian & world terms.


most relevant to our interests.

I have had a chance to read through this again and it is very interesting. Some of the key points for me (from page 127):

"In 2007 there were 185 million passengers carried on airlines in China, up 16 per cent from 2006. By 2015, it is projected ... civil aviation traffic will increase to 450 million passengers a year. ... supported by the construction of 44 new airports over the next five years."

"China's oil consumption is projected to grow by 5 per cent a year... at this rate China will remain the world's fastest growing oil consumer and the second largest overall"

"Australian oil exports as a proprtion of production are projected to increase over the outloook period. With close proximity to Asian markets, it is assumed that additional production .... will be exported."
 
There was some serious profit taking at 60 and the high 50s yesterday. I wonder how we'll go today....probably sideways...hopefully
 
Porper my man...NMS is calling...

How is that downtrend going?

EW waves telling us the 5th is completed?

I'm still looking to get some more NMS...gotta pick the flows :cool:

Well, the 06th came and went without a bang.I have made some more time projections from data going right back to 2005, and still the 24th April comes up, which is the next projected turning point.

The Elliot wave count has been ammended so it looks like we are maybe in the a,b,c of wave 4.Wave 4 could have completed but it was really too short, so we could potentialy bounce a bit here to the high 70's before completing wave 5 down to around 0.40 around April 24th.Pretty negative I know but that's how it looks to me.:)
 

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Hello again fellow Neptune holders…

A couple of months ago I felt it necessary to raise what I perceived to be the major risks that could potentially halt the Neptune juggernaut (refer my previous posts) as I felt that the Neptune price (around $1.34) was getting well above its true worth at the time. I didn’t hear anyone complaining then when Mr Market had its valuation of Neptune wrong.lol… So folks once again I believe Mr Market has his valuation of Neptune wrong again (but obviously in the opposite direction)..

So I’ve decided to step back in time and take a look to remind myself and all the loyal posters on this particular forum of just how far Neptune Marine Services Ltd has come.. I’ll leave where the future lies to your imagination…..

2004 Financial Year:

On the 13th of April 2004 a company named Neptune Marine Services Ltd listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (issue price of 20 cents). I believe it listed around the 14 cent mark. The company was incorporated to acquire from Clive Langley, the patents and intellectual property relating to the Neptune Dry Welding system (now known as NEPSYS) and to commercialise and globally exploit these technologies and the Neptune brand name. As per the original prospectus there was a belief back then that the Neptune technology would be the choice of service in the global market at some stage. Patents were pending in Australia, the USA and Europe.

Financials: Revenue $38,498
Net Loss ($492,170)
EPS (3.50 cents)

2005 Financial Year:

Highlights include:
- Completing the Cullen Bay Marina project in the Northern Territory using NEPSYS technology
- Completing two military projects for the Royal Australian Navy (using NEPSYS)
- Australian Patent granted on the 9/6/05.

Financials: Revenue $924,557
Net Loss ($1,556,150)
EPS (5.15 cents)

2006 Financial Year:

Highlights include:
- Wins the exportential cup for 2005, awarded by the American Chamber of Commerce as having the best export potential for its products and services.
- 11/11/05 secures largest contract since listing for Darwins most prestigious marina.
- 19/1/06 breaks into the oil & gas market with a fuel liner repair in the Cocos Islands.
- 2/2/06 Christian Lange appointed as Managing Director.
- 1/3/06 David Agostini appointed as a Director.
- 19/4/06 Strategy for growth is outlined.
- Announces its intention to acquire Allied Diving Services.

Financials: Revenue $1,766,922
Net Loss ($2,736,090)
EPS (8.34 cents)

2007 Financial Year:

Highlights include:
- Wins first project with Apache.
- 5/9/06 secures US patent for NEPSYS.
- Announces its intention to acquire Territory Diving Services.
- Macquarie Bank become a substantial holder and backer of the growth strategy.
- 12/12/06 Secures first repair project in the Gulf of Mexico, using NEPSYS on an oil platform.
- Announces intention to acquire Link Weld Engineering.
- Announces intention to acquire Subsea Developments.
- Ross Kennan appointed as Director.
- Secures major repair project in Gulf of Mexico.
- Announces intention to acquire Tri-Surv Geomatics and US Underwater Services.

Financials: Revenue $15,536,000
Net Loss ($6,375,000)
EPS (6.52 cents)

2008 Financial Year:

Highlights include:
- Announces intention to acquire Sea Struct and Ross Deeptech (furthering its global footprint).
- Secures another NEPSYS repair project in the Gulf of Mexico along with an integrated services project with Apache.
- Wins major Asian contract for NEPSYS.
- Maiden Net Profit is recorded for the first 6 months of the financial year.
- Acquires an off shore support vessel.

So looking back Neptune has transformed from a company that just had this one brilliant bit of technology, to a fully integrated service, repairs & maintenance, engineering and surveying company that can deliver to its clients every need (once the ROVS are delivered of course).

All we need now is for BP to come out and say NEPSYS is the way of the future for underwater welds and we’ll be off and running….
If you had been on a deserted island for the last couple of years and were unaware of the Neptune share price and someone told you the info I’ve just put up and you were a shareholder – WOULD YOU BE HAPPY???? Only you can answer that…..
 
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