Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NMS - Neptune Marine Services

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Jarrah Tree said:
Is $2 by christmas a realistic possibility?
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The fundamentals of this stock are definately why I believe this statement is a possibility.

Management are sytematically turning this company into a market giant. At what point does this become realised in the SP... that is the big question.

I, as a long term holder, have done hundreds of hours of comparing what NMS is becoming, to the market leaders, comparing MC's left right and centre and trying to get a real value for myself. What I've found is eye opening, and just makes me get more and more of my hard earned into what I now deem to be a very safe investment.
 
Baussie,

JT's post was somewhat designed to encourage speculation in my mind, also as Kennas has alluded to.

You say that you have done countless hours of research and comparisons. Would you be able to post some of these findings in order to provide some evidence.

We are not asking for all your 'secrets' just some hard evidence rather than just words.

Thanks

Prawn
 
Sorry folks,

I didn't realise that a legitimate question was the same as a ramping statement.

We all know that Neptune has continued its aggressive acquisition strategy, which Lange himself conservatively predicts will achieve a net profit of $12.5 million for 2008. The company's market cap has increased from $25 million in 2006 to $247 million now. The most up to date figures I can find suggest that earnings per share is expected to increase from 3c in 06-07 to 6-7c in 08, representing a price-earnings ratio of about 12 (this doesn't include earnings from the two most recent acquisitions). The current total shareholder return for 12 months is currently at 394% and if the solid stance in the face of Thursday's shocker is anything to go by, this isn't about to slow down anytime soon.

One doesn't need to go back too far through these pages of well researched facts and opinions to see that NMS isn't exactly a speculative stock. The AGM next week is expected to produce more good NMS news.

For the record I currently have an extra 13k to tip in and was actually hoping for a bargain opportunity some time soon. So not in my interest to be ramping atm.


By the way, by Christmas does anyone think the sp can reach......... only kidding Kennas & Prawn86.

I hold, they obviously don't. :)
 
Thanks for your thoughts JT.

I dont hold, but am interested in it, as Macquarie Small Cap fund has them in their top 10 holdings.

But if we had to hold every stock that we moderated i would have to be a hell of a lot wealthier than i am now!
 
JT - dont let the brown shirts worry you.....if you firmly believe that NMS will be $2 by xmas, then stand up and say so.....sure add some realistic argument/evidence to support this, but dont let them stand over you.

MBL jumped in at 20c, collecting a 25% holding by virtue of underwriting a rights issue that had cold water thrown all over it (the price constantly pushed lower & lower thru large blocking sells, forcing panicking traders/holders to sell lower & lower to get their trades accepted) - purely to kill all confidence & allow MBL to collect as many as possible, then allow the trickle of good news, acquisitions, contracts, appointments and more acquisitions to make the industry funds stand up and take notice (look at any graph over the last 12 months, a long slow steady climb) - hence the steady build of funds appearing in the top 20.

the quarterly $$$ reported so far have on face value been subdued, but clearly some earnings are simply being held over to following quarterlies, once the final revenues are calculated on ongoing contracts, and with the lid finally being lifted on neppy, we can expect significant $$$ being reported from now on.

the energy services sector is so undervalued its ridiculous - possibly cos its getting confused with the metals services sector, where all costs are eating into any good contractors profits - lange is protecting NMS from any cost issues by ensuring anyone he acquires can bring with them a highly talented and vast workforce, which can then be deployed to any part of the neptune group.

you can expect a solid run this week in the leadup to the AGM - lange will be delivering great news this time, as the lid has finally been lifted, with NMS repeatedly closing on its high, something it has managed to avoid for many months, thru consistent manipulation of the price with small sells at the close, bringing the closing price down to more subdued, boring levels.................till this last week when it was finally allowed to run.

look at this link, especially the high & close columns - NMS never allowed to close on its high............ and if anyone has the capability, the last trades of the day were the culprit - just a few thousand sold to bring the price back.

http://tradingroom.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=nms&section=pricehist&submit=Go!

have a nice day..........i know i am.
 
I think the question about the SP reaching $2 was a fair question. I don't understand the fuss about that, the reaction is a bit over the top really.

If anyone is going to the AGM, maybe we could get some questions answered?

1. any update on the ROV with nepsys

2. a bit of an idea on acquisition strategy, are they going for extra services, or mainly to expand the footprint, how do they intend to fund them? Sort of relevant if you believe the price is being manipulated because of acquisitions. It would be great to see it let loose, that is if it is being manipulated.

3. What are they tendering for and how successful are they? Suppose we wont get an answer on that anyway.

:)
 
Baussie said:
I see CalDive were part of this... wonder if they sat in on Lange's presentation? If not, then we aren't a big enough pain for them yet and were more likely meeting afterwards for discussions about the next big partnered contract(I hope).... With a much higher premium attached now we have USUS....
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Cal-Dive will have an exhibition at January's Underwater Intervention. Neptune and USUS haven't registered yet. This looks like a huge gathering. Does anyone know if Neptune has been involved in this before.

http://www.underwaterintervention.com/TechnicalProgram2008.htm

Lange has said that recent acquisitions puts Neptune in a position to tender for much larger contracts. Maybe before or at the AGM he may have some very big north sea or GoM news. Fingers crossed.
 
Wow 2 days away from the forum and a ramping controversy breaks out - JT you naughty naughty boy.

On the $2 Question. Having watched NMS for around 12 months and buying a nice little parcel of FPO's and oppies back in Jan I think that price target is conservative. My reasons - simple as they are:
1. By way of a comparison have a look at where MRM were this time last year (0.60c). They were a company in decline or at best going nowhere along comes a new MD refocuses the company on it's core business and then spent circa 44 mil on upgrading their existing fleet and purchasing some additionals. Anyone see a similarity? MRM 52 week high is $2.10
2. I have also watched the sp movements of NMS on a daily basis and concur with SOB that everytime the sp looks like closing on a high some piddly little parcel is offloaded that drags the sp back.
3. Further, it doesn't require a huge leap of imagination to see that there are some strong synergies that could be realised if NMS and MRM got together. MRM have a fleet of 26 ships servicing the NW shelf with bases in Dampier and Broome. Marry NMS with MRM and you then have the technology and services linked with the transport to get them to where they are needed.
4. Lange has been asked previously about a merger with MRM and he briefly commented on synergies and left it at that.
5. Substantial shareholders for MRM include James Packer, CBA, Thorney Investments, Ariadne, BNB infrastructure.
6. Substantial holders for NMS MBL and Thorney Investments picked up 5% in May 07.
7. That list of shareholders wouldn't be unhappy with a friendly union - would they?

Anyone notice that there are only 46k of oppies currently listed for sale? Glad I have mine already.

SOB I had a look at that job ad with USUS and was I right in thinking they are offering 401k with medical benefits etc... as a salary? :D
 
Anyway - SP $2 by Xmas - who cares?
I'm with baussie it's a good investment now so xmas 07, March 08 I couldn't care. I'm just glad I got on board the good ship Neptune before it left port, which it has now done. Although just before it sails over the horizon I'm thinking about a little top up. Do you think we should drag a prawn net as we sail along?

Sorry about the nautical aliterations but I couldn't help myself.:D
 
Jarrah Tree said:
The most up to date figures I can find suggest that earnings per share is expected to increase from 3c in 06-07 to 6-7c in 08, representing a price-earnings ratio of about 12 (this doesn't include earnings from the two most recent acquisitions).
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Just a quick correction there JT :) if the earnings were to be 6c then at the current sp of $1.18 that would be a a P/E ratio of 19.6 and at 7c a P/E ratio of 16.8. both quite a bit higher than 12. Now if we did the calc with a sp of $2.00 and the same forecast income, we have a P/E ratio of 28.5 (based on 7c earnings).

Now don't get me wrong, P/E's are not the only thing that should be considered when trying to put a value on a company. NMS in my opinion has huge growth potential, but I think it is more likely to be a slow and steady climb, as things unfold, perhaps a spike here and there if particularly good news comes to light.

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start general rant ;)
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I bought into NMS a couple of years ago, first at 64c then 49c, rode it all the way down to 20c, didn't take up my rights issue (still kicking myself over that) and back up again to where we are currently. I'll continue to hold too, as I think this is only the begining, but lets not get too carried away. NMS is no longer really a speccie. Once companies transition to profitablility, an odd thing tends to happen, the market starts to value them on earnings, and their ability to grow those earnings, the imagination factor starts to take a back seat. At least that's the way I look at it.

I look at NMS as a long term hold, that will in time start paying me dividends, not as a get rich quick share ;)

Tony.
 
Just wondering! If the price has been manipulated for the purposes of acquisitions, as wiser heads have suggested, would the recent "investor presentation" signal an end to that, for good?? Surely they wouldn't release the presentation, if the price was to be kept down, but to spurn more interest and see the price rise. And coincidentally the price seems to be free to move now. Surely then if it was manipulated, then it wont be anymore. I am probably just stating the obvious.

It' so strange the price reached $1.58 pre Lange and now with everything that has happened in the last 18months, which is a hell of a lot, it's only where it is. There seems to be incredible potential and the share price should reflect that. I think the share will be $....... very soon!!

:2twocents
 
true soph, the pres does signal the end of the current strangehold, but dont be surprised to see more manipulation in the future for similar reasons.

from what i understand, the 04/05 surge was just an amazing amount of ramping within the perth investor community, before the resources boom gathered steam - once the maersk rumour was killed, and resources became the new play, then NMS' sp died with it.

it would seem a little strange, but a recession right now would probably be to NMS's SP benefit, as only a few sectors would be seen as resistant to it......energy services being one.

and thats why im in - no matter what happens its hitting home runs.

fun week coming up.
 
Nobody in their right mind would make a decision to buy based on somebodies post in a forum....would they?

With the support and wealth of information provided in response to the $... by christmas comment, is there any need for me to reveal my own secrets :D

For the uninitiated, research starts with ASX reports, identify customers & then locate competitors & compare everything, then read their reports. Understand the industry, go global if that is where the company is being driven. Google finance reveals many treasures! Understand the management and what drives them, where have they come from, whats their expertise....

If all else fails, just listen to Sir Baggy. :eek:
 
Baussie said:
Nobody in their right mind would make a decision to buy based on somebodies post in a forum....would they?
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We would like to think that someone couldn't be that stupid, but it's not always the case. Nevertheless Baussie, the remark was only a question posed to stimulate more discussion, whether it be positive or negative, not a ramp, in my eyes.

A funny morning, it shoots up to $1.30 suddenly, the sell side was incredibly thin, incredibly! Then all of a sudden a avalanche of sellers, all at once, brings it back down to the early $1.20's, strange!!?? Lovely to see the options at $1.07 though! Hitting $1, won a bet for me and a free dinner, beauty!

:)
 
wintermute said:
Just a quick correction there JT :) if the earnings were to be 6c then at the current sp of $1.18 that would be a a P/E ratio of 19.6 and at 7c a P/E ratio of 16.8. both quite a bit higher than 12. Now if we did the calc with a sp of $2.00 and the same forecast income, we have a P/E ratio of 28.5 (based on 7c earnings).
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Thanks for the correction Wintermute. Just learning as I go, and feeling like I am recieving a solid education reading these posts daily. Pleased to be aboard the Good Ship Neptune-as Sounda calls it!

Congratulations Sophie, bon appetite!!

:)
 
SophieSweet said:
We would like to think that someone couldn't be that stupid, but it's not always the case. Nevertheless Baussie, the remark was only a question posed to stimulate more discussion, whether it be positive or negative, not a ramp, in my eyes.

A funny morning, it shoots up to $1.30 suddenly, the sell side was incredibly thin, incredibly! Then all of a sudden a avalanche of sellers, all at once, brings it back down to the early $1.20's, strange!!?? Lovely to see the options at $1.07 though! Hitting $1, won a bet for me and a free dinner, beauty!

:)
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People let's move beyond the $2 question. Sophie I'm with you it wasn't a ramp - particularly not in the sense that some of the comments that I have seen prior which have been blatent ramps. JT was posing a question and not a bad one at that. IMO the forum has the ability to say "Hey JT you are way off the mark", or otherwise. Noone did that, interestingly enough. As I said in a previous post the opportunity here is, IMHO, rather well defined it only takes a precursory review of the ASX announcements to see where this stock could go and couple that with the info provided by yourself and SOB and to at least (and I'm no expert) see that Lange is building a company that is establishing an international presence - no doubt. From a personal point of view I'ld rather be in this stock than most others I can think of - still that's my opinion and choice. When the stock was $0.25c there may have been ramp ups but now with a stack of information available and a clearly defined company direction, ramping would seem to me a little unnecesary.
I'm no expert but I'm on board the good ship Neppy for some solid reasons.
Can't wait for the AGM
 
two things...........

1. surely sophie you aint gonna drag some poor old soul out and make them buy you dinner cos NMSO went past $1, making you even more filthy rich.
i think YOU SHOULD SHOUT, and rub it in the face of the silly doubter lol.

2. sounda - as i have the knighthood, i do believe protocol determines that i should have myself mentioned before sophie. do the right thing next time.

Go neppy!
 
Alright SOB I'll go the Sir SOB only because the info you produce is hard to fault - in fact MO Research (and yours coupled with SophieSweet) shows it's always right on the "money".
I'll let you in on a little secret - when I joined this forum one poster told me (in a private message) to closely follow your posts and to then DMOYR - whcih I did. I arrived at NMS and followed your posts and a few others. It hasn't turned out to be bad stuff.
Nonetheless I still DMOR and arrived at similar conclusions to yours.
I should also add that a couple of articles in the AFR Smart Investor piqued my interest also. So for posters to say that someone would buy NMS because of a singular post is missing the point by a long way. I'm actually glad about that because they will hesitate whereas I will continue to accumulate.
Keep stuffing the bag I say!!!! :D
 
its hard to fault cos i pinch it from other industry websites, forums, emails etc.....nothing spectacular.

as far as the 'analysis', its only as a result of information given to me which is updated to suit the current NMS circumstances.

but im keeping the knighthood - the SIR has grown on me.
 
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