Nickel - the metal for 2007?
- Thread starter markrmau
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doogie_goes_off
disbelieve if you can
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Then look out for small nickel producers - Newbies AGM and Return by FXR
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Perhaps also Metals X, MLX as well. Not in production, but doing a lot of drilling out in the Musgrave of WA. Has added spice in the form of being a Tin producer.
and while we're at it, why not THX, in a 40/60 jv with SMY
"Copernicus Resource increases to 852,000t ore at 1.24% Ni following completion of major RC drill programme;
Copernicus open pit and underground resource now contains 10,600t Ni, 6,100t Cu and 370t Co;
Open pit mining could commence late 2007/early 2008 subject to granting of mining lease and receipt of all statutory approvals
Copernicus is a small magmatic Ni-Cu-Co sulphide deposit located 35km south of the Sally Malay nickel mine"
from SMY ann 29/01/07
cheers
"Copernicus Resource increases to 852,000t ore at 1.24% Ni following completion of major RC drill programme;
Copernicus open pit and underground resource now contains 10,600t Ni, 6,100t Cu and 370t Co;
Open pit mining could commence late 2007/early 2008 subject to granting of mining lease and receipt of all statutory approvals
Copernicus is a small magmatic Ni-Cu-Co sulphide deposit located 35km south of the Sally Malay nickel mine"
from SMY ann 29/01/07
cheers
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Kauri
If you are still awake..........
With $45k now under nickel's belt, the blow-off is nearer than ever.
Should it occur, I will re-enter SMY if the price correction is severe enough - I reckon a fair bit needs to come off its top as its forward pe does not represent decent value for a producer in this (crazy nickel) market.
Kauri
E/W Learner
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Just rumours at the moment...
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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I hope not. My 20c coins that were a few weeks back worth 19c, still have a way to go IMO. I'm hoping they will become worth a little bit more Lol! Watch for the mint announcing that they are melting down this years coins soon. If so, put all the 2006 and 2007 5 cent and 20 cent coins you can find in a jar and keep them.rederob said:
After all, the round 50cent coins from between 66 and 68 can now be bought at spot for about $5 US. Look for copper coins to make a comeback in the form of 5, 20 and possibly 10 cent coins.
Personally looking at MCR and MRE if a correction occurs. Just prefer them to SMY.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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rederob said:
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 12.1 37.5 77.5 92.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 37.5 10.8 209.4%
Year Ending 30-06-08 77.5 5.2 106.7%
thx
MS
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michael_selway said:
SMY ramp up will see those forecasts move forward and if Nickle holds up surpassed.
If SMY does pullback a decent amount (IMO thats a perfect entry), their hedge is fully delivered through increased IC tonnages in 07/08. Dividends in succesive years short term will be outstanding.
Forward growth wise SMY have nailed the monkey for 07 and are cashed up to take advantage of their unexpected exploration hits.
If Nickle spot blows off.......theirs no reason to think 30k a tonne wont trend for a while yet and at that SMY is still a cash cow.
CSM is another nickel stock to watch with 200,000 ++ tons of contained nickel in the ground.( $10 billion). When management eventually gets their act together, they have 8 independant deposits, already drilled and ready to go, once they get the Pallinghurst takeover, over or whatever the outcome!!!
If you want the latest nickel news, then check http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml
or www.metalinsider.com and sign up for their daily PDF on all commodities.
The only direction for nickel for the next 6 months is UP, UP, UP. There is no way that large tonnages can suddenly appear on the LME. All miners are working to the max, and as fast as it gets on the LME it becomes cancelled warrants. Latest stock 3594 tons on the LME with 32% cancelled warrants.
If you want the latest nickel news, then check http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml
or www.metalinsider.com and sign up for their daily PDF on all commodities.
The only direction for nickel for the next 6 months is UP, UP, UP. There is no way that large tonnages can suddenly appear on the LME. All miners are working to the max, and as fast as it gets on the LME it becomes cancelled warrants. Latest stock 3594 tons on the LME with 32% cancelled warrants.
I can't see a better buy in nickel than AGM. They are getting closer to production and are improving their reserves all the time.They will have a low production cost and have plenty of reserves of cash so there will be no need to dilute the shares. They should be in a position to pay early dividends. I have said it before and I will say it once again " In my mind they are the next Sally Malay. I bought SMY in the high 30c as I did AGM so maybe I am biased.
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Got to $50k intraday yesterday.
Up 25% in less than a month.
If that's not an accident waiting to happen, then what is?
Am saving my nickels for some better re-entries in weeks to come.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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rederob said:
SMY was teh best guy when it was sitting pretty at $1.2 for a while, cant believe i missed that one!
http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/docs/Articles/FDC Nickel Sector Report - 26 Feb 2007.pdf
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 37.5 10.9 209.4%
Year Ending 30-06-08 77.5 5.3 106.7%
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 12.1 37.5 77.5 92.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
thx
MS
China’s largest nickel smelter- Gansu Jinchuan Group blamed the speculative funds to skyrocket nickel price of LME.
The high stainless steel price has made the end users not to buy and postpone their factory’ production due they are not able to afford.
Gansu Jinchuan said that the nickel price on the LME is not really owing to the actual demand and supply of nickel.
The domestic Wuxi stainless steel inventory is increased to 120,000 tons per month, which is much more than normal inventory level 80,000 tons per month.
The other Foshan stainless steel market has more than 100,000 tons, higher than normal level 80,000 tons per month as well.
The high stainless steel price has made the end users not to buy and postpone their factory’ production due they are not able to afford.
Gansu Jinchuan said that the nickel price on the LME is not really owing to the actual demand and supply of nickel.
The domestic Wuxi stainless steel inventory is increased to 120,000 tons per month, which is much more than normal inventory level 80,000 tons per month.
The other Foshan stainless steel market has more than 100,000 tons, higher than normal level 80,000 tons per month as well.
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BREND said:
Well the Hedge funds have speculated it so far that a fall from 50k makes January's levels of 35k ish look cheap....a fact the Chinese will have to lump and probably will at those levels....who would have thought hey!.
Brend I seem to recall you recommending to your clients to short at 37k, hope they covered.
Anyway you look at it, Nickle producers are in an enviable position mid term, I wouldn't count on HPAL'S coming online smoothly.
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Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Agreed, its not like with Zinc, or even to a lesser extent copper, where when the Spot goes up enough dormant mothballed projects become NPV positive and can thus move into development,
Rather with Nickel as it had its boom a few decades back, all of the 2-5% deposits are in or have been produced, all thats really left is the large 100Mt+ Laterite 1% Ni deposits and as Freeballs has said the HPAL's operations are not realiable as of yet, ie consider Ravensthorpe, so until the Laterite manufacturing process is perefected, which is some years away imo we will see a strong Nickel Price, I see minimum $10 lb avg over the next 5 years
theres hardly much supply of sulphide mines. this is causing the nickel supply crunch. laterite ore processing costs billions of dollars. not many ppl are willing to invest that much. Zinc there are over 550 zinc mines in china and china's earth is full of zinc ore, and they can get cheap ore from mongolia. Same with copper.
