Appendix 4b material announcementSir O,
Is it easy to determine what % of a company's shares are held by the board/directos/internally? Is this concept measurable?
What do you base that on?At first glance the % of winning trades may be quite low and as such may not suit all traders/investors.
I can only see data onthe ASIC website for short %'s held back to June 2010. Is this enough data to perform the required backtesting?
When I get sometime.!!
Lets get come ranking talk started. here's my initial rankings. Change as you see fit (or add to it).
Pro
1. Measureable short value %
2. Have latent demand (can see this through volume increase when it unwinds)
3. Cuts down on list of companies to research
4. you can see confirmation (% shorts decreasing)
Con
1. The data released by ASIC is up to 5 days after it happened.
2. Company heavily shorted for a reason
3. Data only goes back 1 year. is it enough
4. is the short a function of the market
Taking a stab,
I think the overall index will act as an indicator. If the market rallies up then a heavily shorted stock is likely to rally even harder. My reasons for this are:
- Those shorting are most likely more active traders and will look to close there positions, leading to the in built demand you discussed earlier.
- A level of computer buying would occur due to the links to the SPI and this would again squeeze out shorters.
- Market sentiment may begin to change and investors may adjust their opinion/outlook/models and recognise this stock is now a buy.
As an aside, JBH is very close to a strong support level back in Nov 2008. Whether this is coincidence or not I'm not sure.
I won't be giving any technical analysis on JBH. I'd appreciate if someone else could give it a shot though. (I've removed a lot of stuff to give you a relatively simply chart with price and volume). ONCE MORE WITH FEELING. AGAIN - NOT A RECOMMENDATIONView attachment 47403
Yeah looks to be going to sleep. Nothing here, next opportunity for me.
Remember my original statement back on the previous page. Why do we sometimes see a stock come down over a long period of time, that then rapidly increases in price? It's a dog isn't it? = It's going to sleep isn't it? I agree that at this moment you haven't got a technical trigger for entry, but we're trying to predict the next move (change in trend) with an increased probability for success due to the unwinding of the short position. So what can you see now?
In fact I would say its actually increasing in its falls. Down trend lines have continually been broken and made steeper falls since 09.
Its the kind of index futs chart I would bottom pick on an intraday basis but they, Index futs, on that time frame don't go to sleep, stock ones do.
The only technical thing I would say about it is there is less and less volume as price falls. This could lead into a lack of supply when the shorts do try and cover. They may find no offers above them to cover. That can lead to very nasty moves...... when it happens.
So what price features would you want to see in JBH which would make you go long?
Because thats the pattern that I think it will show at best. it looks like another sp thats heading to zero rather than hero up to this point.So why is your analysis telling you that this stock will "sleep" - I assume this means a neutral trend sideways for quite a while? What features lead to this conclusion?
Bearish divergence? huh? It looks to be bullish..... maybe. It is to me showing a lack of supply as price falls. Not much more. Whether that eventually turn into demand without corresponding supply at the moment its just a guess. Thats what makes me think its probably going nowhere. Not a lot of increasing supply nor demand.Does this volume indicate a potential bearish divergence? How would you determine if this is the case?
For me a decrease in volume AND price rising would signal end of selling. I reckon that would get me in before any sort of HH or retracement etc.So what kind of technical trigger would you want to see? A break of a previous high pivot? A break of a minor or major trendline? An increase in volume that accompanies one of those features? A fib retracement of 100% +/- 5%, since we've seen a break of the 38.2, 50 and 61.8% retracement levels?
Because thats the pattern that I think it will show at best. it looks like another sp thats heading to zero rather than hero up to this point.
Bearish divergence? huh? It looks to be bullish..... maybe. It is to me showing a lack of supply as price falls. Not much more. Whether that eventually turn into demand without corresponding supply at the moment its just a guess. Thats what makes me think its probably going nowhere. Not a lot of increasing supply nor demand.
For me a decrease in volume AND price rising would signal end of selling. I reckon that would get me in before any sort of HH or retracement etc.
For me a decrease in volume AND price rising would signal end of selling. I reckon that would get me in before any sort of HH or retracement etc.
All Are welcome Sinner.Hope I can input.
At minimum:
* higher swing low than the last swing low
But prefer:
* first pullback (lowest close in N (where N between 3-10) days) after a breakout (highest close in N*10 days)
* trend signal (MA crossover or similar)
* breakout itself
If you are expecting rapid movement then it's probably safer to enter at least a portion of the position on a trend/breakout signal so that you don't get left behind waiting for a pullback.
A purely visual indicator Sinner. Is it possible to construct a robust trigger from that?
1) First pullback - after a break of a major/minor trendline. (Horizontal or descending I assume). I'm going to ask you a probability question here Sinner. How frequently does a stock break from a trendline like you've described and not experience a pullback/retracement until partway through the completed emerging structure? What I mean is you may be looking for a pullback that does not happen early in the new trend, especially if the shorts unwind quickly.
2) This is a good one, easy to scan for, what are your inputs? 10/20 12/26 SMA?
3) breakout of what exactly?
4) Last comment. Once again you've defined something that might be unique to yourself (and also might introduce a risk). You are willing to give up some potential profit for greater certainty. This has introduced the risk that the target moves so quickly that you emotionally assume that the horse has bolted. This is why it's important to ensure that our trigger is a defined one...so that we can test against it and have a degree of expectancy.
It's not purely visual at all! Definitely possible to construct a trigger. I have a piece of code (IF low > low[1] AND low[1] < low[2] THEN curswinglow=low[1]; swinglows[N]=curswinglow ELSE swinglows[N]=NULL) that measures the high/low price for a swing high/low and keeps it in two arrays, so you can easily check whether the current swing low (what you call a pivot low) is higher than the last one in the array. You can also do things like measure the distance of the current swing low to the N day low to establish the shallowness/depth of the pull-back.
Trendline? I dunno where you got that from. Unless you count an 'highest close in N days' to be a trendline setup. If I replace the word trendline with breakout in your question, the answer is about 30%.
For newbies sake, I would suggest using 'logical' values for example the SMA of 1 week worth of prices (5 SMA) crossing the SMA of 1 months worth of prices (20 SMA). But this isn't realistic for me, I use adaptive techniques to get an aggregate short term signal independent of any particular parameter.
Right, so you're creating a lagging signal that shows the change from the downward trend. Presumably you can then finetune the N value in your testing phase. I like it.Highest close in N days. So a breakout of the N-1 day highest close.
100% agree with what you say here, although I haven't 'defined' anything, simply suggesting that if your target is trades which "come down over a long period of time, that then rapidly increases in price" then use the mechanical setup which is most captures the most alpha off those trades. No point waiting for a pull-back on rapid price increases IMHO.
Yeah agree but I think we were looking for a short squeeze set up. That will clearly not happen when there is still sellers.Tech would suggest that Shorts would be un wound in selling volume not buying volume.
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