Happy said:Well, only if you don’t apply your trading method.
People spend some hours on flight simulator for example, then applying what they learned in real flight they can do it and they can do it well.
But I don’t want to make impression that anybody has to do what I do.
websman said:Paper trading sucks. I recommend jumping in with cash, but taking small positions. You have to learn to control your emotions and you can't do this while paper trading. There's a big differnece btween losing money on paper and losing real money.
Webs...
kaveman said:How do you know if a system can be profitable if you do not test it in real time? Backtesting is only as good as your's and the software abilities to create trading system in code. Why would you throw money at something if you ahd no idea if it can make profits?
I always look at it that I coould possibly make half the returns, or double the losses, in real trading compared to paper trading to allow for the psychology effects
Perhaps you only use backtesting for proving to yourself that a system could make money. But what stocks do you base the testing on? If it is the ones you will be trading then you ahve to remember that the charts of the past are not necessarily the charts of the present or future. Perhaps one of those stocks had a large upwing going from 50cent to $5, but will it do the same in the future going from $5 to $50 in the smae timeframe? So many variables make a chart different from time to time and from price to price.
But without some testing, you can never know if a system has positive expectancy even though that testing is flawed. But it is better to base your trading on a system that has shown its worth than to trust a non-tested system with your real money?
websman said:What's wrong with the doll thing???
tech/a said:I agree with points in both.
Papertrading shouldnt be confused with systematic or system trading--
I certaintly agree with Kave to trade in any way without having an idea if at the end of a period you'll be nett profitable is just plain crazy.
97% do it-- one or even a dozen winning trades doesnt guarentee a consistent profit. But I'd rather travel with a road map that was correct at the time of printing than with none at all!!
Nothing is guarenteed in the market place---well in the short term possibly however in my lifetime 51 yrs Buying and holding most of the top 100 stocks GUARENTEED profit. I can also guarentee every trader that if they,
(1) Have more winners than losers
AND OR
(2) Have bigger winners than all accumulated losers
They are guarenteed to be nett profitable.
As for paper trading not being accurate that is entirely determined by the recording skill of the trader using it and the period of time you test it.
Finally traders who do not exhaustively test their methods could well be dis allusioned---
The discretionary trader with no testing normally finds himself locked in losses as he cannot afford to take the loss,rather than locked in winners reluctant to take profits!.
Yes Paper trading ISNT THE answer I agree whole heartedly but can be the basis of a methodology.I think new traders without the technology are really up against it.
There are a whole lot out there without a map.
Bobby said:Hi Tech,
That road map you talk about that 97% don't use, think I need one , can you recommend a book on how to get the maps ?
Hope you know what I mean.
Cheers Bob.
Happy said:Providing you can put up with the format
tech/a said:Dont know whats happened there.
I posted 4 sections of the Summary and only the code section remains.
The first 3 have disappeared on my screen???
I've mailed Nick so Will see.
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