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NEM - Newmont Mining Corporation

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Sean K

Sean K

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This has been savaged over the past year or so due to lower than expected production and power shortages in Ghana, amongst other things. Announcing gold sales would 'temporarily decline' last FY wasn't great when POG was looking to go up.

I reckon it might have found a bottom now, and could start to find its way out of the turd pile. If it cracks $6.25, then maybe the down trend is over. Then, next stop $6.75. MACD look pretty good for confirmation of upward momentum. Watch for it to break signal line. This may be about the $6.25-$6.50 level, perhaps.

Having said that, the suite of bad news this company has dished out makes it susceptible to further punishment if it doesn't deliver on promises, no matter what POG is up to.

Potential breakout at the green circle, but I won't be looking at it till it beats $6.25.
 

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The 21MA just crossed the 63MA from below - first time since mid-2006

Also nice hammer candle on Friday - presume because of POG

Not large volumes yet but certainly looks promising

Kennas - whats the shareholding like on this one - with POG looking bullish again will we see some consolidation with some of the major gold stocks? private equity even?
 
NEM 10-1 CDI's - I can't see NEM being a takeover target, rather it would be looking at taking over others to replace reserves, & reclaim top spot again. It's been impacted by high operating costs, particularly oil, hence the sell-off over the last year. Highly geared to the spot price of gold as it's hedge book is reduced further. Also exposed to copper. Pay's a small but welcome dividend also.

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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Newmont Mining Corp. on Thursday posted a more than three-fold gain in fourth-quarter earnings thanks to higher margins from its gold operations, while rival Barrick Gold Corp.'s profit doubled despite costs from winnowing its hedging position.
Despite a retreat in energy prices since the summer, higher costs continued to dog the precious metals producers, partly because of lower-grade ore at their mine sites.
Denver-based Newmont said it made $223 million, or 50 cents a share, in the last three months of 2006, up from a year-earlier profit of $62 million, or 14 cents a share.

Earnings from continuing operations totaled $215 million, or 48 cents a share, at the S&P 500-company. Profits under this measure also increased three-fold from the year-earlier period.
Revenue rose 13% to $1.46 billion, as an upswing in the price of gold offset lower bullion sales, Newmont said.
Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been expecting a quarterly profit of 40 cents a share on revenue of $1.31 billion.
Wayne Murdy, chief executive, said Newmont ended 2006 on a high note, despite a "challenging industry landscape" marked by escalating costs and declining reserve grades.
"We continue to reinvest in our business while maintaining our positive outlook for the gold price," he said in a statement.
 
Spoke too soon - here's hoping :D . Current share price is a bargain if true. A 'target price of $55 would equate to $6.85 au. Current price = $5.45, diff = 25%.

NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of Newmont Mining Corp, rose in Friday premarket trading amid a media report that Canadian metals miner Barrick Gold Corp. could make a bid for its rival.

BusinessWeek said Barrick could pursue Newmont for its "proven and probable" reserves and operations worldwide in Australia, Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

If such a deal were reached, Newmont would be priced in the mid-50s, according to sources cited by the financial weekly magazine.

Last month, Newmont's fourth-quarter profit jumped more than threefold, lifted by higher gold prices, while Barrick's robust gold production boosted fourth-quarter earnings more than twofold.
 
Dr Doom said:
Spoke too soon - here's hoping :D . Current share price is a bargain if true. A 'target price of $55 would equate to $6.85 au. Current price = $5.45, diff = 25%.

NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of Newmont Mining Corp, rose in Friday premarket trading amid a media report that Canadian metals miner Barrick Gold Corp. could make a bid for its rival.

BusinessWeek said Barrick could pursue Newmont for its "proven and probable" reserves and operations worldwide in Australia, Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

If such a deal were reached, Newmont would be priced in the mid-50s, according to sources cited by the financial weekly magazine.

Last month, Newmont's fourth-quarter profit jumped more than threefold, lifted by higher gold prices, while Barrick's robust gold production boosted fourth-quarter earnings more than twofold.
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Just the rumour should send it up, as well as any other muted potential takeover targets. Wouldn't be surprised if NCM finds support as the perennial takeover target. Funny, I saw unusual action on this yesterday and didn't examine it hard enough.
 
I think this is very bullish with a Morning Doji Star completed 2 days ago, before any speculation about a takeover.
 

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Dr Doom said:
I think this is very bullish with a Morning Doji Star completed 2 days ago, before any speculation about a takeover.
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I think this is worth taking more notice of for the open Mon am. Will be back to you just before then.....

(not holding)
 
Hello Gentleman.

I've held, held, and held for some time now as well as doing some accumulation along the way. It has a a vey disapointing share in my portfolio, I am patient however and I have a long view on Gold as you are well aware.

Today's market wasn't as excited as I was when I heard the news yesterday. Why? Is it because it is seen as a US stock and people aren't aware of it's existance on our exchange?

What's your thoughts Dr Doom and Kennas?

Cheers
 
Hard to say BT. Very thinly traded in Australia, yes. I've watched for some time, and FP have a buy at around 5.80 on it, so it's looking cheap to them at the moment I bet. But they are gold crazy....

They've had so much bad news the past year, you would think they have to have some luck soon, or management start leaning from mistakes.

Made yet another lower low last week.....I'll look at it more seriously when it cracks 6 bucks. Looks like a mountain of resistance there now...
 
I think that rumors like this, even though it apparently came via a newspaper, are disregarded initially as something that's not going to happen, but it does put the idea in the minds of investors, so it may arrest the decline in the short term.
If we get another rumor to back the last one up then it's a different story maybe, and then we could see some real action. Nothing is impossible with the amount of money being spent by private equity, and available by banks.
If there is a full blown takeover bid then the previous high ($8.50?) would have to be a good starting point maybe?.
 
I think you'll be waiting a while for a takeover gents, then again, I thought this one was a dog stock until I read this today. Maybe it will get re-rated?.

"And he repeats his long-held view that "it would not surprise me at all if gold again crossed the Dow." In this context, it is interesting to see Allmon reiterating his support for the world's second-largest gold miner, Newmont Mining Corp.which he has held since 1995 and which presently constitutes almost a fifth of his stock holdings.
Newmont is not particularly popular with analysts because its sheer size makes replacing its reserves difficult and because of some questions about its operating costs. The stock is down from above $60 in 2006.
But Allmon typically brushes off what he describes as "a mine pollution flap in Indonesia. This looks like a hold-up. Newmont could walk away and tell the extortionists to stick it."
And Allmon is patient. He writes: "At the present price, I urge all investors to use this lull to lay away NEM shares, for a 5-10 year hold. I'll alert you when to sell ..."
In other words, Allmon, who is 86, is thinking 10 years ahead.


Full story -
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/one-happy-bear/story.aspx?guid=%7B96FA50FE%2D9C81%2D4553%2DA225%2DA88868A85D1D%7D&dist=TNMostRead
 
International markets at all time highs. Gold going OK, recently testing $700 again. And NEM in the dog house. Any bottom pickers out there? The management of this company should be locked away. What a disaster.

(not holding - looking for turn around)
 

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NEM is the news about fixing their hedge book or something.

Could THIS be the bottom? LOL. I thought I said at the top of the thread? :p:

What a complete woofer on the chart. Don't get much worse than this, except maybe RTL. Ouch.

I couldn't confidently put $1 on this until it broke some resistance on the way up. And there's heaps of it. Plus, Bean is forecasting $540 gold and that will effect this of course.

So tempted to take a gamble and then just manage the position tightly. What a turn around story it could be. Or not.

Any bottom pickers out there? Anyone?

Article from Reuters:

Newmont rises on bullish move on gold hedges
 

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kennas said:
So tempted to take a gamble and then just manage the position tightly. What a turn around story it could be. Or not.

Any bottom pickers out there? Anyone?
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kennas, I have watched this one closely for 6 years now, & have held also, and have recently opened new longs on the strength of the weekly chart. A bit of good news on Friday has helped too, so maybe we may get some re-rating to fair value, in spite of the gold price as I think it has been on the nose, unloved & oversold. Time action has purged negative sentiment now, could be a huge double bottom buying opportunity.
Knowing NEM's luck it will start to come good just as the rest of market takes a breather :( & drags it with it.
 
this stock is a perfect example as to why one should never try to pick a bottom on a downtrend...i.e catch a falling knife.

I learnt the hard way, during the dotcom bubble, when I doubled up after a £3 stock had dropped to £1.80ish. The bottom ended up at 15p!

At times like this, its worth revisiting the fundamentals in great details.:)

Hey...love the previous posts on this thread calling the bottom...lol
 
Pommiegranite said:
this stock is a perfect example as to why one should never try to pick a bottom on a downtrend...i.e catch a falling knife.

I learnt the hard way, during the dotcom bubble, when I doubled up after a £3 stock had dropped to £1.80ish. The bottom ended up at 15p!

At times like this, its worth revisiting the fundamentals in great details.:)

Hey...love the previous posts on this thread calling the bottom...lol
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Pommie, the main difference between the previous attempts at bottom picking was there was no fundamental reason to change the trend, only loose technicals, if anything. This time it's different, as a major fundamental impediment to both NEM & the gold market has been removed and the market has given it's approval. NEM closed in the US up $2.24 or 5.6% Friday so CDI's should be well supported Monday, and possibly beyond.

PS what was the purpose of your post?
 

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NEWMONT'S move to cut its hedge book obligations to zero is the surest sign yet that the gold price will move higher, industry experts say.

Late last week Newmont announced it had eliminated future contract exposure for some 1.85 million ounces and would shelve its merchant banking business as newly-appointed chief executive Richard O'Brien signalled a change of direction for the world's second biggest gold miner.
"These transactions form the foundation of a renewed focus on our core gold business," Mr O'Brien said when revealing the discontinued hedge book.
Analysts cheered, and Newmont shares lifted 5.6 per cent in US trading on Friday, despite an admission from Newmont that the changes would lead it to book a $US531 million ($620 million) pre-tax loss on early settlement of the forward contracts, which were all closed out in June. Newmont, which also has a listing in Australia, operates the Jundee, Tanami and Pajingo gold mines and has a 50 per cent stake in the massive Super Pit operation at Kalgoorlie.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22039389-643,00.html
 
Broken $4.75 making a higher high, and now testing it as support. A higher low would add more support to a bottom being found. Next resistance $5.00, and downward trends as shown. I'll have to consider a position on a break through $5.00 around the green circle, and manage it from there. Breaking back down through $4.75 and it's back in the dog house again. Woof.

In the news again about funding for Boddington. Seems there's more positive news comming out than negative atm.

Newmont raising $1b to fund WA project
 

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