NCM - Newcrest Mining

Nortorious · 18 January 2015

Nortorious said:
Nice work ftw129, I'm waiting on some more volume for confirmation and look at getting in just before close on Friday or early Monday. I see the entry risk being around 20% for the position at this stage and would position size it so it is no more than a 2% risk to total portfolio. Looks good so long as it stays above the $12.50 mark.

Rock and roll time for NCM based on the weekly close. Will be looking to enter Monday...

Uncle Festivus · 19 January 2015

Looking to match up at open to $13.50 or so, depth is finally on the right side, as long as gold holds, or could be short day-trade?

Thanks to our friendly central bankers, gold should continue to break out, so maybe good times again for the long suffering NCM shareholders?

piggybank · 5 February 2015

Nortorious · 5 February 2015

Uncle Festivus said:
Looking to match up at open to $13.50 or so, depth is finally on the right side, as long as gold holds, or could be short day-trade?

Thanks to our friendly central bankers, gold should continue to break out, so maybe good times again for the long suffering NCM shareholders?

View attachment 61194

I haven't been in for long so can't say I'm suffering. Looks positive to me with a close above $14.35ish tomorrow and some increased volume, I'll be rubbing my hands together for the weeks ahead.

Uncle Festivus · 6 February 2015

I'm up 30% but getting a bit nervous now, it's been a good run. But when you pan out the charts we are still looking at a stock that used to trade at $40 with fundamentals that were probably just as good as today, apart from copper & the div cancellation? So thinking due for a pullback, then back to long term trend break out?

Uncle Festivus · 29 May 2015

Well it looks as though we owe a great big thank you to some snotty nosed analyst at UBS for their latest stock 'tickle' - I guess they just wanted to get a few more shares at a cheaper price?

Uncle Festivus · 19 September 2015

OK kiddies, I hope you topped up at the lower prices? And thank you UBS......

sinner · 21 September 2015

Uncle Festivus said:
OK kiddies, I hope you topped up at the lower prices? And thank you UBS......

View attachment 64358

Context. Looks like a bear flag to me...I guess there is some resistance at the $15 and $20 marks to test at some point.

My back of the napkin valuations still look pretty high for a cashflow intensive resources company too.

Uncle Festivus · 9 February 2016

Looking strong today, even with the shutdown of Gosowong ann.

Too high too fast?

notting · 9 February 2016

Uncle Festivus said:
Looking strong today, even with the shutdown of Gosowong ann.

Too high too fast?

View attachment 65822

View attachment 65821

Such a badly run peace of garbage.
Waiting for the Gold rush to end for a big short.
But that won't be till the negative interest rate thing in Japan ends!

Uncle Festivus · 10 February 2016

notting said:
Such a badly run peace of garbage.
Waiting for the Gold rush to end for a big short.
But that won't be till the negative interest rate thing in Japan ends!

Badly run? They were a bit ordinary before Sandeep Biswan took over, but the company is looking a lot healthier these days, and I wouldn't be surprised if they re-introduced the div again soon to placate long suffering shareholders.

You'll be waiting a while to short if you are waiting for nirp to end.

notting · 16 February 2016

Uncle Festivus said:
You'll be waiting a while to short if you are waiting for nirp to end.

Didn't have to wait too long!!
Shorted it yesterday and added to it just before lunch.
However this is not 'the big short,' as I am bullish gold in the medium term. This is really just to feel it out and look for it to look like it's turning up again on international money printing madness, in which case I will cover and buy other gold stocks.irate:

Uncle Festivus · 16 February 2016

Uncle Festivus said:
Too high too fast?

notting said:
Didn't have to wait too long!!
Shorted it yesterday and added to it just before lunch.
However this is not 'the big short,' as I am bullish gold in the medium term. This is really just to feel it out and look for it to look like it's turning up again on international money printing madness, in which case I will cover and buy other gold stocks.irate:

Yes, it was tradeable for the taking if so inclined. Like all markets now, turn on a dime.....or central banker rhetoric and or rumor?

Uncle Festivus · 1 March 2016

Still going strong, target $21?

ftw129 · 2 March 2016

ftw129 said:
Confirmation of bullish breakout. Price target $16-$18

NCM has gone and broken out of a very bullish pattern. The volume hasn't been huge, which is the only cause for caution.

The price target is $16-18 with a stoploss at around $9.50.

View attachment 61112

(This is purely my own opinion and should not be construed as advice. This post is only here for illustration purposes only)

Uncle Festivus said:
Still going strong, target $21?

View attachment 65984

Price Target zone has been reached and now hitting upper band.

There should be some resistance around these levels especially at $21.

Support at $16 and definite buying at the bottom of the channel!

Stops to be set below the channel.

Good luck!

notting · 2 March 2016

Went short on NCM again to day.
Sold Gold stocks Monday.
Wait for the next turn to buy gold stocks again.

notting · 7 March 2016

Added to it, but gold showing stability at this point.
When they start talking about the FED now having no reason not to hike again, gold will take a hit.

Uncle Festivus · 8 March 2016

notting said:
Added to it, but gold showing stability at this point.
When they start talking about the FED now having no reason not to hike again, gold will take a hit.

Not following your logic there - the Fed won't be raising rates if the US is in recession.

Looks like NCM will be opening higher today, although headwinds from the rising $AU means a static price around $1700.

Gold forming another bullish wedge.

notting · 8 March 2016

Uncle Festivus said:
Not following your logic there - the Fed won't be raising rates if the US is in recession.

Looks like NCM will be opening higher today, although headwinds from the rising $AU means a static price around $1700.

Gold forming another bullish wedge.

It's pretty clear that the US is not going into recession and that the FED has good reason to raise again given the strong employment numbers last week.

Uncle Festivus · 8 March 2016

notting said:
It's pretty clear that the US is not going into recession and that the FED has good reason to raise again given the strong employment numbers last week.

I don't think it is clear, in fact a lot of data is already at recession levels.

The employment numbers are complete statistical noise & guestimates - they have been proven to be completely without any substance based on any hard data, so for the Fed to base policy (raising rates) on this set of figures is pointless. Just look up Birth/Death model to see how they simply make things up or extrapolate to trend.

The unemployment number is also completely useless as a data point to base policy on as it vastly underestimates the true level. I've used the word estimate as that's all it is. Better to look at daily withholding taxes for a better picture.

Put it this way, in this climate I wouldn't be making trading decisions to short a gold company by what the Fed may or may not do?

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...cratic-national-committee-or-sell-it-to-cnbc/

PS gold on the verge of breaking out again so hope you have a tight stop on those shorts?

NCM - Newcrest Mining

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