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NCM - Newcrest Mining

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Well, it certainly has been a good morning for those who took up the share purchase plan.

I have already sold
 
Upward move seems to have been halted a couple of days ago.

Looks like a nasty H&S playing out here.

Untidy.

Unless you've shorted it.
 

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kennas said:
Upward move seems to have been halted a couple of days ago.

Looks like a nasty H&S playing out here.

Untidy.

Unless you've shorted it.
Click to expand...

So $26 or $24 the next step down? Looks like a good opportunity to re-enter there... if not already to be honest!

I was looking at a long yesterday afternoon, would of been a small profit today but simply wasn't worth the risk. I wonder if the market heads down again, will the gold miners follow or will they follow the gold price instead? Interesting times!
 
I agree with M34N, seeing previous support there at $28-$29. With the markets potentially resuming their downward motion, one would expect NCM to begin to go up. Though this may also be dependant on how much of the potential next leg down in the markets is due to banking woes making gold look attractive again.

I have attached a couple of graphs, one a 12 month comparison between NCM XAO and GOLD and the other a 6 month comparison. The main feature that I am seeing especially in the last 4 months or so is that NCM and GOLD are a good fit (as to be expected) and both are antithetic to the XAO. So based on that and the support seen at $28 I am seriously considering a long in NCM or maybe one of the other gold stocks.

Is also interesting to see that GOLD was antithetic to the XAO for the last 12 months but really began to diverge since the carnage in September and NCM did not begin to show the same divergence until late November. I havent really looked into it though at a guess I imagine that the price of oil/energy coupled with the AUD/USD would be significant factors int he behaviour there.
 

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Went long this morning, stop just above $28.

Behaving fairly erratic at the moment as NCM usually does.

(click to expand)
 

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My stop at 28.10 is looking pretty nervous right now, only "in the red" trade for the week, can't complain.

 
NCM will go up with the price of gold. Gold is looking precarious right now. I wouldn't be surprised if Newcrest goes to $26.50, but don't take my word for it. I'm a fatalist. (Actually, <24 would be fatal). Lol.
 
Meh, i just liquidated my NCM position. Will see what happens over night and early next week.

Wonder what will happen with the USD?
 
Aussiest said:
NCM will go up with the price of gold. Gold is looking precarious right now. I wouldn't be surprised if Newcrest goes to $26.50, but don't take my word for it. I'm a fatalist. (Actually, <24 would be fatal). Lol.
Click to expand...

Aussiest said:
Meh, i just liquidated my NCM position. Will see what happens over night and early next week.

Wonder what will happen with the USD?
Click to expand...

I'm out too, lets see if it finds a bottom as you say at around the $26.50, was the only dampener on a good week for me.

Cheers
 
Interested in your wave count there Boggo. I'm still learning EW and have the same ABC pattern and have been looking for NCM to hit 26.70 which is also where you have your "typical wave c". A correction from this point was going to be my signal to enter long as I believe this would be the start of a larger wave 3.
 

I'd say that you are right, I think I may have jumped the gun a bit on this.
Will be interesting to see where it settles.
 
Well, it will depend on the price of gold and the aussie dollar won't it? It is my understanding that POG and newcrest basically move in unison. Or else, why would it go up? On TA alone?

The nov and dec lows of last year are correlated with POG, which sunk to $750.

Comments?
 
I have been monitoring the GOLD chart (first chart), case of which came first though, the chicken or the egg.

The GOLD chart (as opposed to the chart of Gold-bottom chart) did seem to have a support level.


(click to expand)
 

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Well, it's broken through $900.00. The next level is $850.00. Will be interesting to see what happens. I guess the overall sentiment of the market and the health of financial stocks (and the strength of the USD) seems to contribute to the POG.
 
NCM raising my interest again, approaching significant support around the 26-28 zone. Not sure if that will correspond to a support line in POG. Must check.

Wonder of an EW'er would say this is a W2?
 

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I'm not going to buy back in until $24.50-26.50. I already have some long which i didn't liquidate the other day.

At one stage the market depth was sell 195k buy units to sell 700k+ units. But, market depth can be misleading sometimes. WPL's depth has been in favour of buys for some time now, but the price keeps fluctuating.
 
Well, i wonder how NCM is going to go. POG down overnight.

I wonder if support at 30-30.50 will hold...

Back down to 28-28.50?
 
No updates on this thread. Anyone following this stock?

Strange SP behaivour over past few days. POG up, yet $30.00 resistance rejected > two days in a row.

Amateur theory: gold and hence NCM (slightly linked) used as defensives in touch economic times. Reason price not rallied = punters unsure of economic 'recovery'??

Tentative prediction? Back down to support of $28ish... I was bullish on this, but now... unsure. Bearish short term.
 

I agree with your theory and hold NCM. Net operating profit has risen. This has been achieved due to strong gold prices as investors seek safe haven investments in response to the deteriorating USD. Their economy is shot. The probability is for a sudden rush into the gold miners once the USD achieves monopoly money status. But I'm sure you are ahead of the game.
 
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