NCM - Newcrest Mining

[M34N]

I think the first sign of any gold weakness = short on NCM.

Interesting to note since the shorting ban was lifted that NCM has actually trended up and the gold price has moved sideways.

 

[Sean K]

Will be interesting now to see if the break can hold as support. That's back between $26 and $26.50 I suppose. Volume doesn't look that great, but looks prospective for the red lines to have changed to blue. For the second. eeek

The PPT have downgraded NCM because they've outperformed. They must be shorting it themselves.

0931 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan downgrades Newcrest Mining (NCM.AU) to Neutral from Overweight on the back of recent share price strength. "Whilst we maintain our view that Newcrest remains the pick of the Australian gold majors due to the company's proven quality of management, assets, and exploration upside; recent share price movements now prompt a downgrade of our recommendation," analyst says. Keeps A$29.00 target on stock, NCM last at A$28.23. (LMF)

 

[GumbyLearner]

Kennas

I have been slowly building a small holding in NCM since last year.

When you say the PPT, are you talking about the US Exec Order team?

I have noticed that the AUD per oz price has remained strong this quarter.

Do you think the Apache/Varanus issue will affect this qtrs results?

Whats your opinion of NCM med-long term?

Thanks for all your contributions on this thread

 

[Sean K]

Hi GL,

JPMorgan is the PPT I think. They do all their trading for them it's rumoured.

I have go no idea where the market's going medium term. Hence why I'm just short term trading and have been for the past 18 months, with just a couple of buy and hopers, which I am flagellating myself over.

Short term we're in a little bear rally, but how far we've got I'm not sure. Markets overcorrected on the last incredible leg down. Lots of panic for the doors.

Interesting to me that 3400 ish showed as support and formed a higher low. If we break 3700 ish then we're making a higher high, and breaking the low of Oct. Step by step forming a base, but just how long we take to coil up again for the looooong term uptrend to continue is anyone's guess - between 2-7 years perhaps. Lots of flushing still needs to occur I think, but depends how much is factored in too, which is the great unknown.

For NCM, all depends on POG and equities. Both moving higher would be nice.

I think the losses from the gas outage have been mentioned in previous announcements. You will find it there somewhere. I don't think they will surprise the market and are factored in. Hm, maybe...

Nice recovery from NCM today, and XAU and HUI both up 8% in the US.

Short term up trend established for NCM now with higher highs and lows forming.

 

[Sean K]

Pretty ugly looking candle yesterday. Poor failure, after golds push up. Profit taking I ass u me. Gold running still so may recover.

I notice more M&A occurring in the gold world tonight. IAMGold merge with Orezone. I think we'll see a bit more of this unfold in Australia shortly where those with cash and product clean up the wreckage.

 

[cuttlefish]

Pretty ugly looking candle yesterday. Poor failure, after golds push up. Profit taking I ass u me. Gold running still so may recover.

I notice more M&A occurring in the gold world tonight. IAMGold merge with Orezone. I think we'll see a bit more of this unfold in Australia shortly where those with cash and product clean up the wreckage.

Yes will be interesting to see if NCM, LGL and the XGD manage a turnaround tomorrow if the gold price move holds overnight. (I don't place a lot of value on candlesticks but none of them had pretty ones at the close today). I

ts nice to see gold stocks starting to move in synch with gold price and decouple a bit from the other indices.

I agree we're likely to see M&A in the Aus environment. Its going to be a pity to see some of the quality juniors and mid sized producers get taken out at opportunistic prices.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I think a good aussie gold price per ounce is what Ian Smith said was in store for this company a long time ago and it continues to OUT-PERFORM the market. I will buy more on the dips, what a great stock in these times!

 

[Sean K]

In the Oz, still a health premium...

And probably based on POG around $600. Would be nice to know the long term assumptions with the alchemy that produces these...



CREDIT Suisse has cut its target price for Newcrest Mining to $39 from $45.

But it has maintained its “Outperform” rating.

“Newcrest’s core is its strong identified gold and copper endowment and the high probability that historic growth of reserves and resources can be maintained for some years,” Credit Suisse said in a client note.

It added that the weak copper price would be reflected by higher reported cash costs, but these should remain attractive compared to those for Newcrest’s peers.

Newcrest was trading down 1.2 per cent at $27.90 today.

 

[Sean K]

This piece on NCM is a couple of weeks old, but interesting nonetheless. Was calling a break up from $24 a buy signal.

http://www.egoli.com.au/epiServer/Templates/Public/Pages/StoryArticle.aspx?id=37305&epslanguage=en

I and a few here thought $26 was more important.

A little recovery yesty from the profit taking on a down day which is nice to see.

While it holds above the new likely support lines looks good short term.

A little resistnce there at the $29 ish mark next hurdle.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Hi Kennas

Whats your opinion that gold in $au has sat above $1000 per oz since mid Sep?

Should make for a bumper qtr :bounce:

 

[Sean K]

Hi Kennas

Whats your opinion that gold in $au has sat above $1000 per oz since mid Sep?

Should make for a bumper qtr :bounce:

Yes should be very good on the au side, but NCM get quite a few credits for cu. I don't think that's gone too well. Need to check the values and how much the change in price effects the bottom line...

Wouldn't be surprised to see NCM go for Prominant Hill, or Matabe off OZL, and hope it's fire sale prices. Long term great opportunity.

Has just made it's way through $29, and looks like it might have been tested and made support, but just brief.

Clearly in short term uptrend with higher lows and highs. An EWer might say we're in 5 of 5 now, so maybe due for a decent break, but with POG looking to retake $900 might keep going. Or not.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I hold both BHP : and OZL (dog) and NCM .

Very interesting times indeed!

I still think PH will get NABbed before Martabe!

Either way I dont care, just a pt trader, ft investor!

 

[Sean K]

I've been waiting for a pullback to add some more but it just keep bloody going up!

LOL

Must have a decent pause here somewhere.

Perhaps when $29 became support that was another buy signal...

Chart wise, not sure what's next, perhaps a resistance zone at $34 ish ish around the highs in Mar and Jul perhaps.

Wonder if they are talking to OZ at the moment?

 

[chops_a_must]

I have the breakout target as being exceeded today Kennas.

I would expect some kind of pullback.

But unlike an ordinary stock, this is a bottom drawer for me... so barring something fundamental, I wont be selling anyway.

 

[eric35]

I got into NCM about a week ago, but never expected that quick up surge. I have a feeling it could keep going up over the next few days.

July 2008 was $34 roughly, $35 in May. We should get there again.

 

[Sean K]

Well, we reached that $34 mark quicker than expected and you would have expected a pause around these leves.

BUT!

You can blame the ASX for your share price weakness today. F**kers.

An ASX please explain for the recent action and then a 'we know nothing', the cause.




My best guess at the recent movement and outperformance is the technical breakout, and maybe anticipation that they will be able to pick up some of the OZL scraps for a song.

 

[Sean K]

An ASX please explain for the recent action and then a 'we know nothing', the cause.

My best guess at the recent movement and outperformance is the technical breakout, and maybe anticipation that they will be able to pick up some of the OZL scraps for a song.

Another ann out last night regarding profit guidance which looks nice, but I'm not sure what the market's expectation was previously.

Still, would have to consider a 15% plus gain to the corresponding year may be good in this environment.

Unless, as I infer, the market's expecting 50% plus....

 

[GumbyLearner]

It is hard to gauge whats going on with the SP atm.

I think a lot of stocks have their compasses stuck around magnetic island
at the moment. Most banks and economists dont have a clue because of the lack of due diligence in financials and previously undisclosed positions of bankrupts and shonksters recently rescued by government funded handouts.

It looks the pyramid-selling models of Amway, HerbalLife, Henry Kaye etc.. have taken over in the
financial arena. Thanks Madeoff!

Dont worry Kennas what these guys dig up is no-one elses liability.

I'll keep my holding in NCM over any blue-chip financial and/or retail stock anyday while the artificial props are put in place and real distortions of companies profit/loss balance sheets are slowly revealed to us "pleb" investors by the media!

By the way, why is the ASX is acting like a cop on a motorbike around Christmas time? Surely they have other investigative powers!

 

[Sean K]

Chart wise, not sure what's next, perhaps a resistance zone at $34 ish ish around the highs in Mar and Jul perhaps.

Wonder if they are talking to OZ at the moment?

Stalled at 34 but just poking it's head through. Had a great run since the breakout at 26.

OZ in the media announcing that they are accepting offers for Matabe. NCM must be in the mix to pick this up at a bargain which I suspect is the cause for the recent support, along with institutional buying.

 

[Boggo]

Stalled at 34 but just poking it's head through. Had a great run since the breakout at 26.

OZ in the media announcing that they are accepting offers for Matabe. NCM must be in the mix to pick this up at a bargain which I suspect is the cause for the recent support, along with institutional buying.

I may be wrong kennas but I am starting to see weakness in NCM, momentum seems to be waning.
From an Elliott perspective it may make $38 on this wave 3 before a correction but I doubt it unless it gets some news to kick it along.

Just my