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NCK - Nick Scali

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Billyb

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Hi all,

New to the forum but I've been lurking around/learning rapidly since joining, so first of all thanks to all the contributors :)

Noticed that this stock has not been discussed here which surprised me. I am new and don't know much, but fundamentals seem good to me - eg ROE 52.5, and zero debt. The company has a name out there and management seem responsible, judging by the balance sheet which seems pretty good.
As a bonus, perhaps in the short term NCK will get a boost from the demand caused by the floods.

On the flipside, I feel NCK's results may be very dependent on volatile factors such as interest rates and housing sales. Also NCK is expanding this year, so I don't know what effect that is going to have as it may change things a lot.

Considering a buy but just wanted to see what others thought? I have ordered Valu.able but haven't yet received it, would love to run Roger's calculations on this one.

Cheers
 
Hey Billy B,

I was also surprised to see that no one had replied to your email!! Presently the stock is trading on a P/E of 14 with a dividend yield of 4.6%, with a strong buy recommended by Moelis Australia Securities.

Will it be third time lucky for the stock to close above the $2.70 mark - time will tell.

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NCK shares up 21% in early trading.
FY20 underlying NPAT guidance of $39m - 40m
FY19 actual NPAT was $42m
Outlook: Sales looking strong and expects profit growth first half FY21
The deferred interim dividend of 25c will now be brought forward.
Not Held

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6 Mth Dly
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lucky for some.

In these Covid days, this company has had a "volatile share price – a high of $8.30 in February, a low of $3 in March and a new high of $8.80 on Thursday[. This ...] broadly mirrors the rollercoaster this business has been from an operational point of view.

Earnings in the six months to December 31 were flat, and then between $9 million and $11 million of orders were lost as the nation went into its first lockdown in March and April. But the launch of a new online store in April and a 70 per cent sales surge in May and June rescued the year. https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p55izv

But even those dramatic swings don’t tell the full story.

To Nick Scali’s credit, it disclosed that it received $3.915 million under the Australian JobKeeper scheme and the equivalent scheme in New Zealand. In addition, it got rent relief from more than 85 per cent of its landlords, worth another $2.3 million.

The payments accounted for about 10 per cent annual net profit – essentially the difference between a flat year and a disappointing one.

But this taxpayer boost should also be seen in the context of Nick Scali not just maintaining but increasing its final dividend by 2.5¢ to 22.5¢.

The Scali family's dividend cheque will be about $2.5 million. Or to put it another way, 63 per cent of what the company received in JobKeeper payments.

The optics of this dividend rise are certainly interesting. It hardly feels like the Scali family or their investors are sharing in the country’s collective pandemic pain."
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/wha...ofit-season-s-brave-new-world-20200807-p55jj7
 
Tony Featherstone on Nick Scali (NCK) today at Nabtrade.

The others he liked based on criteria of being in asx100 and having issued and not withdrawn guidance despite covid:
Arena REIT (ARF)
ReadyTech Holdings (RDY)

NCK: Not Held

1. Nick Scali (NCK)
I have written favourably on the furniture retailer many times over the past decade for The Switzer Report. The well-run company continues to grow in good and bad markets.

Remarkably, Nick Scali is trading at a record high in the midst of a pandemic when some of its stores are shut and Victorian consumers cannot leave their homes to buy discretionary items.

The company reported underlying after-tax net profit of $42.1 million for FY20, beating guidance of $39-$40 million and matching the FY19 result. The final dividend rose 12%.

That’s an outstanding result given Nick Scali lost an estimated $9-$11 million in sales orders during temporary store closures in late March and April. Like many retailers, it has had supply-chain complications during COVID-19, reduced trading hours when stores re-opened, and it deferred two store openings. Yet earnings were unchanged over the year.

Retail bears learned a painful lesson with Nick Scali. Some consumers who still had a job spent money earmarked for travel on furniture. Others used their superannuation withdrawals to buy a new couch and pamper themselves.

Nick Scali sales orders soared more than 70% in May and June (on a comparable store basis against the same period in FY19) creating a record work pipeline.

Cost management was key. The retailer was eligible for JobKeeper wage subsidies (controversially, in light of its profits), achieved rental reductions from 85% of its landlords, and cut advertising spending. The company is well-positioned for a stronger retail recovery in 2021.

Nick Scali says profit for the first half of FY21 will be at least 50-60% higher compared to the same time in FY20. As most companies withdraw guidance, the company expects soaring profit growth (albeit because of a lower base in the first half of FY20 due to the Coronavirus).

A share price that has more than doubled since the March low reflects the company’s performance and outlook. Nick Scali is due for a share-price pullback or consolidation, but I have long thought it one the market’s best-run, highest-quality small-caps. The latest results, in a pandemic no less, confirm that.

Any sustained price weakness in Nick Scali would be a buying opportunity.
 
9 February 2022 Response to Press Speculation Nick Scali Limited (ASX.NCK) (“Nick Scali” or “the Company”) refers to recent press speculation in The Australian on 8 February 2022 relating to a potential sale of shares in the Company by the Scali family.

The Board has been informed by the Scali family and Scali Consolidated Pty Ltd that this speculation is unfounded and the entity does not have any intention to sell shares in the Company at the current time.

Authorised by the Board of Nick Scali Limited

DYOR

i do not hold this share
 
This is getting down to a tempting level but I doubt I'll be dipping into cash.
Non exec chairman, J Ingram, spent $230k on market 9-10 May for 25.000 shares (roughly at today's share price)
The chart looks due for a kick-up near term but I consider it at least possible the bottom could come in at $7 or even $6. I will spare anyone my arcane and questionable methods.
The stock seems fairly priced if not cheap here and they are tipping a strong fy22 result given the pipeline of orders. They've had problems with product supply, Covid store closures and they expect higher shipping costs.

Not Held

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finicky said:
This is getting down to a tempting level but I doubt I'll be dipping into cash.
Non exec chairman, J Ingram, spent $230k on market 9-10 May for 25.000 shares (roughly at today's share price)
The chart looks due for a kick-up near term but I consider it at least possible the bottom could come in at $7 or even $6. I will spare anyone my arcane and questionable methods.
The stock seems fairly priced if not cheap here and they are tipping a strong fy22 result given the pipeline of orders. They've had problems with product supply, Covid store closures and they expect higher shipping costs.

Not Held

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Also, i would think many people have already updated the furniture in their homes during lockdown and now will be looking to spend on travel etc. still, looks very interesting.
 
Looks like NCK got away? I might have had an entry nibble if it got down to $6 but who knows? Getting timid about buying anything, except specs with no revenue perversely.
Two big, almost full white, weekly candles over the month and the first white is bullish engulfing. Volume modest though. Last week took price outside my best fit downtrend line for the steep decline. Theres a shallower trend that could be drawn I guess and that comes out at about $12.

3 Yr Weekly
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if it is any consolation , i keep checking on NCK at the wrong times as well ( i don't hold )

one for the more attentive stock-picker ( where good timing would really count )
 
i find it hard to get excited over a stock like this. How much is held by founders and management? They'd have the goss on how they're tracking well before the rest of us. (Interest rates and housing starts?).

Nick Scali said its first-half net profit fell 29 per cent to $43.01 million. The result topped first-half profit guidance of $40 million to $41 million provided at the October annual meeting.
  • Sales fell 20.2 per cent to $226.6 million in the six months ended 31 December
  • Group written sales orders for the period were $212.7million, up 1.1 per cent on the prior corresponding period.
  • Like-for-like, written sales orders were flat.
  • Second quarter written sales orders rose 8.2 per cent from the year-earlier period, with both November and December particularly strong.
Nick Scali said positive momentum extended into January with written sales orders of $58.9 million, up 3.6 per cent on a year ago, with same store sales up 2.6 per cent.

The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 35¢ per share, payable on 26 March.
 
Its a great company though @Dona Ferentes, part of the attraction is founders & management with skin in the game. I dont think they have made a loss in 20 years, paid a divvy every year for 20 years, ROIC over 20% CAGR for 10 years, EBIT yield over 10%, nearly any metric you care to look at its been a great business.

For me its always been a bit too expensive, but in hindsight, I should have bought years ago and just paid up. The 2nd half of 2021 was probably the only time in the last 10 years that wouldn't have been a good entry point!
 
galumay said:
. I dont think they have made a loss in 20 years, paid a divvy every year for 20 years, ROIC over 20% CAGR for 10 years, EBIT yield over 10%, ....For me its always been a bit too expensive, but in hindsight, I should have bought years ago and just paid up
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and PE around 10.

up 17 per cent todsy to above $14 , presumably as the 'worry' has been removed.

long term a good story
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