NBN Rollout Scrapped

NBNMyths said:

As far as I know, apart from the initial and announced 9-month delay relating to getting the Telstra deal sorted, it's on schedule.

After the Telstra deal was finally signed, they announced a revised 3-year schedule about 8 months ago, which has not changed.

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Thanks NBN.

Well since all the posts of today have argued about the headlines in the Townsville Daily Bulletin, I decided to do some research thorugh Google and I became more confused than ever before. I was hoping to come up with a link which related to the number connected to the NBN and the current cost of installation and whether it was on budget and time.

One economist was adamant the final cost would be $80 billion while others were more conservative down to $8 billion over buget. I could not find acurate figures on the number of houses eligible for connection and the number actually connected as a percentage.

The confusion continues with the final date of completion from 2020 to 2028.

There was talk on google about prices up to $138 depending upon the GB download. There were comments about Telstra's $29.95 monthly fee which allowed 5GB per month. There next plan was for 200GB at $90 per month.

Further comments were made about the connection to a building as the NBN passed by. If your said "yes" at the time, the line would be laid to the building free and if you said "no" then it may cost you later. If one did say yes, then I am unsure whether that commitment was binding or not.

As I started out to say, I could not provde one link or the other without being biased because no doubt someone would bound to say,"you picked this one because it suited your argument".

I just wish this government of ours would come clean with some monthly statistics like:-

Is it on budget.
Is it on time.
What will be the true completion date be.
How many houses are currently elible.
How many have actually been connected as a percentage.
Will we all get 100 GBs.
As NBN is a monopoly what will be the increased cost of usage year after year.
How long will it take to recoup the installation outlay.
What will happen to NBN with a change of Government.
If and when NBN is sold off, will the government recover the full cost or will they accept a price much less.

Lots of answers required.

noco said:

Well since all the posts of today have argued about the headlines in the Townsville Daily Bulletin, I decided to do some research thorugh Google and I became more confused than ever before. I was hoping to come up with a link which related to the number connected to the NBN and the current cost of installation and whether it was on budget and time.

One economist was adamant the final cost would be $80 billion while others were more conservative down to $8 billion over buget. I could not find acurate figures on the number of houses eligible for connection and the number actually connected as a percentage.

The confusion continues with the final date of completion from 2020 to 2028.

There was talk on google about prices up to $138 depending upon the GB download. There were comments about Telstra's $29.95 monthly fee which allowed 5GB per month. There next plan was for 200GB at $90 per month.

Further comments were made about the connection to a building as the NBN passed by. If your said "yes" at the time, the line would be laid to the building free and if you said "no" then it may cost you later. If one did say yes, then I am unsure whether that commitment was binding or not.

As I started out to say, I could not provde one link or the other without being biased because no doubt someone would bound to say,"you picked this one because it suited your argument".

I just wish this government of ours would come clean with some monthly statistics like:-

Is it on budget.
Is it on time.
What will be the true completion date be.
How many houses are currently elible.
How many have actually been connected as a percentage.
Will we all get 100 GBs.
As NBN is a monopoly what will be the increased cost of usage year after year.
How long will it take to recoup the installation outlay.
What will happen to NBN with a change of Government.
If and when NBN is sold off, will the government recover the full cost or will they accept a price much less.

Lots of answers required.

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Herewith an update from the Townsville Daily Bulletin.

http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2012/10/15/367828_news.html

noco said:

Well since all the posts of today have argued about the headlines in the Townsville Daily Bulletin, I decided to do some research thorugh Google and I became more confused than ever before. I was hoping to come up with a link which related to the number connected to the NBN and the current cost of installation and whether it was on budget and time....
...

Lots of answers required.

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Some of your questions are not for the Govt to answer. Others have already been answered many times.

This is a 10-year infrastructure project. Nobody can say with absolute certainty what the final cost will be, or how long it will take. I challenge you to find any 10-odd year project, public or private, which has cost exactly what was forcast at the time of commencement, or taken exactly the time forecast. All the Govt can do is provide running estimates of these things based on information known at the time, which is what they have done.

There is (of course) plenty of speculation from others people about what the final cost will be and how long it will take. If you choose to believe that speculation rather than the official Govt line, then it's entirely up to you. But you can't attack the Govt for failing to provide the information, because they have done so. You just choose not to believe it. There is no confusion in the officially provided information.

Is it on budget.
Is it on time.
What will be the true completion date be.

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These questions are regularly answered in the lower house NBN committee, in Senate Estimates and in the NBN Co corporate plans. Last month the latest Corp plan was released which increased the budget from $36.9bn to $39bn. The original budget at announcement in 2009 was $43bn.

The completion date was pushed back 6 months from December 2020 to June 2021.

Additionally to the above, NBN Co make a yearly announcement of the rough rollout plan for the next 3 years, and a firm plan for the next 12 months.

How many houses are currently elible.

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Again, this is regularly announced. In the case of the fibre footprint, it was 18,200 until recently when another 5,000 were added. If you want to know where it's available and underway, simply visit the NBN co rollout map on their website: http://www.nbnco.com.au/rollout/rollout-map.html

How many have actually been connected as a percentage.

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This is announced in Senate Estimates and the lower house NBN committee at every hearing. On average, it is currently about 30% across all the brownfield NBN sites. This is well above expectations at this stage (about 11%). In perspective, the takeup of ADSL was 3% after 18 months and the takeup of Optus cable is ~20% after 12 years.

However, since the copper network will be switched off 18 months after the NBN fibre rolls through, it's a rather moot figure.

Will we all get 100 GBs.

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NBN Co do not charge by volume, they charge by speed. They are a wholesaler who charge ISPs a flat wholesale charge per connection based on the speed of that connection. They also charge ISPs a aggregation fee based on the total speed they want at each "Point of interconnect", and a flat fee to connect to each POI. The costs are detailed in the NBN Corp plan, and concisely explained here: http://www.tektel.com.au/TekTel Report - NBN Pricing Explained.pdf

From the publicly-available costs from NBN Co, the ISP must add their own costs (Installing the physical connections to the NBN, providing their national and international connectivity and their own operating costs) to decide on what their retail pricing and options will be.

The Govt has absolutely no say on what the retail pricing will be, or what monthly volume the ISPs include. They therefore cannot provide that information any more than Telstra can provide it for the copper network.

As NBN is a monopoly what will be the increased cost of usage year after year.

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This has been answered many times. The NBN pricing is regulated by the ACCC. They are not permitted to increase their pricing at all for the first 5 years. After that, they are permitted to increase their pricing by a maximum of 50%xCPI in any one year for the next 25 years. After that, the ACCC SAU will have to be renegotiated. Additionally, they are not permitted to earn a profit of more than "bond rate+3.5%". If they do, they must lower their prices.

How long will it take to recoup the installation outlay.

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The corporate plan predicts that the capital cost (inc interest) will be repaid by 2034.

What will happen to NBN with a change of Government.

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That's not a question the Govt can answer. Ask Tony Abbott.

If and when NBN is sold off, will the government recover the full cost or will they accept a price much less.

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Under NBN legislation, the NBN is not permitted to be sold off until it is completed and the sale is reviewed by the parliament. The price accepted and method of sale is a decision for the Govt of the day, and can not be answered now.

NBNMyths said:

The corporate plan predicts that the capital cost (inc interest) will be repaid by 2034.

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The big question is their ability to deliver on the corporate plan.

drsmith said:

The big question is their ability to deliver on the corporate plan.

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Certainly, it's your right to question that ability and as time goes on the question will be answered.

I don't think at this stage there is any reason to think they won't deliver, based on:

Revenue side:
The takeup of high-end plans is well above forecast, meaning ARPU is ahead of expectations.
The Telstra and Optus migration deals are done, meaning takeup rate is essentially guaranteed.

Costs side:
Almost all of the wireless and sat portions have now been contracted, and are on budget.
Brownfield rollouts have been contracted on budget for the next 2 years, with a 2 year option.

Bugger me, some randoms have been uploading speed test screen shots from their '4G Mobiles' on the net....most are probably iPhone 5's.

Anyways, have a look at the speed some of them are getting...

I think they are off 100mbit cable not opt us 4g. Download way too high and upload is way too low.

paulyy said:

I think they are off 100mbit cable not opt us 4g. Download way too high and upload is way too low.

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I'm getting these results from Whirlpool. You know, where Senator Conroy and his F.U.D. supporters are from...

paulyy said:

I think they are off 100mbit cable not opt us 4g. Download way too high and upload is way too low.

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Here is another one.




WTF...

NBNMyths said:

The Telstra and Optus migration deals are done, meaning takeup rate is essentially guaranteed.

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That is the bit that gets up my nose. You either take the NBN or we rip out your phone system anyway.
That may sit well with the younger generation that want bling speed internet and who cares if a lot don't want it.
Also who gives a rats what it costs, this is about ideology and ego's.
It will be interesting when the Y generation are asked to pay for something they aren't interested in.
The government cant balance a budget but are still bankrolling this, I hope we can afford it. The up coming mini budget would indicate otherwise.

DB008 said:

I'm getting these results from Whirlpool. You know, where Senator Conroy and his F.U.D. supporters are from...

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I'm with Pauly, and for the same reason. There's too much difference between upload and download speeds. Those tests are most likely Optus cable, which offers a theoretical 100/2 speed.

DB008 said:

Here is another one.

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Now that is more typical of what 4G will get you. 3Mbps up and 3 down. Actually an extremely poor result when you consider how low the contention on 4G is currently (especially at 11pm!), plus the high signal strength and low latency which indicates the user is close to the tower. Imagine what will happen with a few million more connections.

WTF...

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...and that's the high end of what you'll get until the networks start to get a decent number of subscribers and the speed plummets, as is the case with all wireless systems.

4G/LTE currently has a theoretical maximum of 150Mbps (shared per cell), so from the above test we can assume that the user was the only person using that cell at the time of the test. Try it agin in a CBD at 10am, and the result will be closer to the first pic....

sptrawler said:

That is the bit that gets up my nose. You either take the NBN or we rip out your phone system anyway.
That may sit well with the younger generation that want bling speed internet and who cares if a lot don't want it.
Also who gives a rats what it costs, this is about ideology and ego's.
It will be interesting when the Y generation are asked to pay for something they aren't interested in.

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Your point would only be valid if the new network you were being "forced" on to cost more to use than the old network that's being turned off. But it doesn't. For an equivalent service, it actually costs less. Particularly for users at the low end, who are able to save 30% on what they pay now.

In the case of people outside the metro areas, the NBN costs much less. For the same price as I pay now for a phone+ADSL with 200GB at 13Mbps, I could get 1000GB at 100Mbps on the NBN. Such is the situation for people at the 4,500 telephone exchanges without access to the competitive ADSL networks enjoyed by those connected to the 500 city exchanges.

It makes absolutely no sense to keep the copper active once you install the fibre. It would be like keeping the rusty old iron water pipes going after new plastic ones were laid.

DB008 said:

Bugger me, some randoms have been uploading speed test screen shots from their '4G Mobiles' on the net....most are probably iPhone 5's.

Anyways, have a look at the speed some of them are getting...

Click to expand...

DB008 said:

I'm getting these results from Whirlpool. You know, where Senator Conroy and his F.U.D. supporters are from...

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Further to my post asserting that these are Optus cable rather than 4G results..... According to Optus they don't have a 4G network in Brisbane yet, making this result rather unlikely, wouldn't you say?
https://www.optus.com.au/shop/networkcoverage/4G/WhereIs4G?sid=con:mob:net:hme:4g:btn::whereis

Iinet price comparison

NBN: 20gig+20gig 12/1mbps + VOIP, $59.90 per month.

http://www.iinet.net.au/nbn/nbn-plan-residential.html

Naked DSL: 100gig (includes VOIP), $59.95 per month.

http://www.iinet.net.au/internet/broadband/naked-dsl/

At this end of the market, the NBN is clearly less value.

drsmith said:

Iinet price comparison

NBN: 20gig+20gig 12/1mbps + VOIP, $59.90 per month.

http://www.iinet.net.au/nbn/nbn-plan-residential.html

Naked DSL: 100gig (includes VOIP), $59.95 per month.

http://www.iinet.net.au/internet/broadband/naked-dsl/

At this end of the market, the NBN is clearly less value.

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Firstly, iiNet naked DSL is only available to a small portion of the population in metro areas (ie: at ~350 of the 5,000 nationwide telephone exchanges with iiNet DSLAMs installed).


Secondly, iiNet don't offer a 100GB NBN plan making a direct comparison difficult. They do offer a 200GB plan on both naked and NBN though:

NBN: 100gig+100gig 12/1mbps w/ VOIP, $69.90 per month.

Naked DSL: 200gig (includes VOIP), $69.95 per month.

...and at the high end, there's absolutely no comparison:

NBN: 500gig+500gig 12/1mbps w/ VOIP, $89.90 per month.
NBN: 500gig+500gig 25/5mbps w/ VOIP, $94.90 per month.
NBN: 500gig+500gig 50/20mbps w/ VOIP, $104.90 per month.
NBN: 500gig+500gig 100/40mbps w/ VOIP, $109.90 per month.

Naked DSL: 600gig (includes VOIP), $119.95 per month.



If you're concerned about the entry level, then check Exetel's NBN offerings:
http://www.exetel.com.au/residential-fibre-pricing-mainland.php

- 50GB at 12/1 (includes VoIP) for $35.00 per month.

- 100GB at 25/5 (includes VoIP) for $50.00 per month.

All NBN pricing is the same at any NBN location nationwide, whether it be rural, regional or metro.

NBNMyths said:

Firstly, iiNet naked DSL is only available to a small portion of the population in metro areas (ie: at ~350 of the 5,000 nationwide telephone exchanges with iiNet DSLAMs installed).

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That doesn't change the fact that it's better value for money than the NBN.

NBNMyths said:

Secondly, iiNet don't offer a 100GB NBN plan making a direct comparison difficult.

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Nonsense.

The comparison above is between 40gig/month (with a restriction) and 100gig/month for essentially the same monthly price.

NBNMyths said:

Further to my post asserting that these are Optus cable rather than 4G results..... According to Optus they don't have a 4G network in Brisbane yet, making this result rather unlikely, wouldn't you say?
https://www.optus.com.au/shop/networkcoverage/4G/WhereIs4G?sid=con:mob:net:hme:4g:btn::whereis

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Courtesy of your mates over on Whirlpool.

Proof of Optus 4G availability in Bris

Wednesday afternoon I was checking my phone at the Stock Exchange hotel in Brisbane CBD.

Inexplicably, the LTE icon was showing in place of the 3G icon, despite 4G not currently being offered by Optus in Brisbane. See the status bar in the attached photo.

http://imgur.com/a/2BSIt

I ran a speedtest then and there, and had speeds returned up to 43Mb/s download – a 4G equivalent. I ran two subsequent tests in the following minutes with similar results. Results of the tests are in the first photo attached.

After a moment I switched my phone off, and back on again. 3G icon and service was restored. I ran two more tests with more typical 3G speeds. These are shown in the attached photo. Once home I ran a wifi test as well, which still fell short of the mobile result earlier that evening.

Is this proof that 4G rollout in Brisbane CBD is well progressed? Could it have been activated for testing over a short period? I'm at a loss to explain otherwise how such speeds could have been achieved, and seeing the LTE icon means the iPhone was understanding it was connected to a 4G data network as well.

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Picture from above quote;

drsmith said:

That doesn't change the fact that it's better value for money than the NBN.

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And it doesn't change the fact that its not widely available, even in exchanges where iiNet has DSLAMs because many of those DSLAMs are at capacity anyway.