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NBN Rollout Scrapped

1. The NBN will cost taxpayers $43 billion dollars. We can’t afford it and it’s uncosted
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No private funds have signed up to secure this kind of debt. WHAT REVENUE???
It hasn't been built yet! Are all properties that are built by developers, sold "off the plan"?

Telstra has NOT agreed to use thier infrastructure. Only to CLOSE DOWN the copper cable and retain FOXTEL.
Telstra have agreed to move their copper services across ONTO the NBN. NBN Co will lease Telstra’s existing fibre, ducts, pipes and other infrastructure for $9 billion over an undisclosed amount of time. That amount is to be paid to the telco as the copper network is decommissioned.

2. If it were viable, the private sector would build it
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SO how does a Government think they can afford it when they cannot afford 5.8 billion to rebuild QLD after a flood and a cyclone???
Money for the NBN has already been earmarked. The Government believes an NBN is in the best interests of Australia. No money has been earmarket for natural disasters and they've had plenty of those in the past 5 years. I believe the Independents are pushing for a Disaster Fund to be set up... not sure how this is any different to the Future Fund, but that opens a whole new can of worms. The point is, if you have a homeloan (already in debt) and your car breaks down, what do you do? Go into further debt, use your holiday fund (savings), or like the NSW Government does - sell an asset?

Here's a thought: Everyone (for or against the NBN) - perhaps you should visit your local MP and request a referendum??? BUT first, do some research into the BENEFITS of fibre, PUTTING ASIDE the cost factor first. Imagine you have unlimited funds, and can even afford a Ferrari (@wayneL).
3. We will never need that much speed or data
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LOLOLOL ...... Japan has 103 MBPS and only uses 12 % capacity. ROFL
Last time I looked we weren't Japan and the fact that Australia is 20 times bigger than Japan means there are vast areas of ground to cover between populated areas.

I don't quite understand what your argument is - speed (103Mbps) is VERY different to capacity. I have a 1.5Mbps service at home (lucky me), but if I need to receive a large file, I can reach my capacity (100% or around 150k Bytes per second) quite easily but have to wait approximately 1 hour for every 500mb downloaded. For the majority of the time however, my capacity is probably 1-2%. If I had a faster connection (100mbps), I might only have to wait approximately 1 minute. My productivity has just increased considerably.

Why is Japan OUR benchmark anyway?
Historic and future internet speeds

4. Noone else in the world is installing such a system
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USA Guvmint has invested 225 MILLION DOLLARS ONLY !!!!!!!!!
Ok - now the USA is our benchmark. Stop jumping around. They have 15 times the population we do which is spread pretty much evenly right across the country. They have much better competition, and therefore don't have a monopoly / duopoly (such as we do here). It hasn't been a prority for them so far until now, but then again neither is their public health system.

Perhaps you should investigate further: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_the_United_States

5. Our internet speed is good enough
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HAHAHH Ahaha hah aha h aaaa ...... are you for real ??? We are 4th in all the developed nations for speed compared to the amount of population we have in Australlia !
Oh dear, now we are looking at population. Here's a list of countries in the 23 million - 20 million population ranking:
North Korea, Ghana, Taiwan, Australia, Yemen, Mozambique, Côte d'Ivoire, Romania, Syria, Sri Lanka, Madagascar.

We're back to the SIZE issue again. We're not Japan, or the USA.

Referring to your population list above, North Korea's neighbour (with double the population) has the FASTEST internet in the world with an average speed of 11Mbps (up to 100Mbps). It's amazing what you can do on a smaller scale and by spreading the cost over a larger taxable population. I wonder what it costs for them to protect their neighbouring borders though.

Why? It's not on copper and those 1 million homes have the choice to hook into the fibre network. The service is provided over cable, which probably also provides their FoxTel service. It's funny though, how Telstra promotes it as being able to "... pull down a movie file of 860MB in less than 10 minutes."

7. People don’t want fixed internet, they only want mobile
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So why has Telstra LOST over 1 million customers on "FIXED" lines and are now increasing the cost of "FIXED" lines to compensate???
Finally a good response. The reason is because people don't want to spend $30+ on home phone, $30+ on mobile, $50+ on internet, when they can get a combined service for (say) $60. This has only changed in the past couple of years though, through competition from Vodafone, Optus and other telcos. I'm only forced to install a home phone, due to the fact that I can't get a Naked-DSL service and are too far from the exchange.

This sort of thing is fine in the major cities, but for the majority of the population outside of the metro area they still need a fixed line. If power goes out, a fixed line is about the only thing that still works. Mobile phone towers still need electricity to transmit / receive.

The NBN will no doubt roll out wireless as well, to areas where it would be prohibitively expensive to run fibre to each home. It would therefore be run to a node and a wireless tower erected to service a wider area.

You're lucky you have the option. In some areas of Tasmania, they have been forced to use dialup. 28.8kbps (unlikely to be 56kbps) compared with a 1.5Mbps service - I know what I would choose. If you don't need a faster service, then stick with a cheaper solution. If you want all of the bells and whistles then you'll have to pay for it. What do you pay for an equivalent service not on the NBN?

9. It will cost thousands of dollars to install it into my house
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Ummmmmmmmm ...... nope ...... look here for some facts...
I looked at your references, and I think you're off topic. For some residents where the house is (for example) made of bluestone, a wireless service may not be capable of penetrating throughout the home. This will obviously require additional hardwired points to be installed. However, if you already have a Telstra copper service (like I do) then I should be able to simply re-connect my telephone / modem into the new NBN socket. My ADSL modem is able to support 54Mbps wirelessly, so my router is therefore a bottleneck compared with a full 100Mbps network. I'm pretty sure I'd be able to cope with a 50Mbps (half-speed) service though.

10. Fibre optics only last a maximum of 15 or 20 Years.
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PMSL .......... You have got to be kidding me ....... Vermin eat the plastic coating rendering it USELESS
Did you read your own reference? They put metal sheaths around the plastic in order to protect it. And my phone was out for 3 days last year, because water got into the telephone pit shorting out the connections, rendering it USELESS. What's your point?

Perhaps you didn't know that the submarine cables that run between countries are also prone to shark attacks, once again, rendering them USELESS (but that's why they build in redundancy).
 
I want a Ferrari too, but don't want't to pay for it. Hence I don't have one.
No. You want a Ferrari. You can't justify the cost because you would have to forgo something else (a roof over your head, food, alcohol, entertainment) perhaps for a VERY long time. Hence, you don't have one.

BTW - I'd be happy just to be able to drive one... once... but I don't WANT one.
 
No money has been earmarked for natural disasters and they've had plenty of those in the past 5 years.

Not for disasters in Australia, seems to be plenty available for other disasters (Phuket) and they just throw money away to stupid concepts such as Cancun and Indonesian climate change when they are not saving the planet in Copehagen.

You guys have to be kidding with some of the mismanagement and corruption you try (unsuccessfully) to defend.
 
There's a redheaded bird missing !
 

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No. You want a Ferrari. You can't justify the cost because you would have to forgo something else (a roof over your head, food, alcohol, entertainment) perhaps for a VERY long time. Hence, you don't have one.

Incorrect.

There are probably lots of people here who could cash in a few shares or maybe even have a few hundred K sitting in a bank account.

But there are other priorities.
 
As one of the contributors of the site in question, I think some correction is in order!


The deal with Telstra is for both leasing charges for their infrastructure (Poles, pits, ducts), and for the migration of customers and decommissioning of their copper and HFC voice and data services. See this story.

The Biz case estimated it will be revenue positive by 2018, IIRC. Alan Kohler seems rather happy with the figures.



Perhaps because the network is off-budget due to it providing a forecast positive return?

3. We will never need that much speed or data

LOLOLOL ...... Japan has 103 MBPS and only uses 12 % capacity. ROFL

That's pretty much the point. Right now, 12Mbps is fine. But what about in 10 years? Considering that we've gone from 256kbps to 24Mbps in the last 10 years, do you not suspect that a similar improvement will be required in the next 10 years? The only way that such an improvement would be feasible is through the rollout of either fibre or HFC cable. Both networks cost about the same, but fibre has huge advantages over HFC, so it's the obvious choice.


Not sure of your point here. The difference is that the USA has much higher population density and also has a huge number of HFC cable networks (the construction of which was hugely subsidised by their cable TV networks). Due to anti-siphoning laws, cable TV is nowhere near as popular here, hence the small HFC cable coverage.

5. Our internet speed is good enough

HAHAHH Ahaha hah aha h aaaa ...... are you for real ??? We are 4th in all the developed nations for speed compared to the amount of population we have in Australlia !

What does our population have to do with our right to have decent internet speeds? On that basis, should we also abandon paved roads, airports, hospitals etc because we have a 'low' population for a developed country?


Unrelated to wireless, but Telstra's (and Optus') HFC cable networks may advertise a speed of 100Mbps, but they don't deliver anything like that. HFC is a shared medium, that is the network speed slows drastically as more people connect. While the network can theoretically do 100Mbps, that is a speed per node. So if there are 5 people on that node, all using the net, then each will get ~20Mbps. And that's exactly what happens. See these examples of a 100Mbps NBN connection in Tasmania, and a 100Mbps Telstra HFC Cable connection in Melbourne:

NBN:
Theory down: 100Mbps
Actual down: 92.3Mbps
Theory up: 40Mbps
Actual up: 34.2Mbps


Telstra Cable:
Theory down: 100Mbps
Actual down: 20.8Mbps
Theory up: 2Mbps
Actual up: 1.1Mbps

The above examples should put NBN Vs Cable into perspective!



Telstra have mainly lost fixed customers to Naked DSL, not to no fixed line at all. Unfortunately, naked DSL is only available in ~400 out of ~9200 exchanges across Australia, or more people would take advantage of it.


For entry level, you can get an NBN connection (with VOIP phone) for less than you can currently get a ADSL plus phone connection. eg, iiNet have a bundle for $40 which gives you 25Mbps NBN, plus a VOIP phone (via Bob) and all local and national calls. Try matching that on the current systems.

For mid level use, pricing for similar service levels is the same as now, although you actually get 25Mbps. While current ADSL2+ advertises 24Mbps, the average ADSL2+ speed available in Australia is about 8-9Mbps due to distance from the exchange, a limiting factor for DSL services.

For high-volume use, the NBN is dearer that most current ADSL2+ services, although the speed is higher and there is the option of massive speed increases (at a cost).

But there's no point complaining about the price of those fast services relative to the current situation, because the current tech can't deliver those speeds at any price. In other words, isn't it better to have those speeds available (at a cost), than not have them at all?


9. It will cost thousands of dollars to install it into my house

There is no need to rewire your house with fibre-optics unless you want hard-wired access in other places of your home. Ummmmmmmmm ...... nope ...... look here for some facts

Sorry, but inaccurate sensationalism from The Oz doesn't constitute facts.

The NBN Co will install a box, inside (or outside if you choose) your house at no cost to you. Here is info on the box.

As you can clearly see, it has 2x std phone ports and 4x std data ports. You can plug any current phone, wireless or wired router into the box. Wireless routers have been at 54Mbps for years, and are now doing 108Mbps. Hence, there is absolutely no need to rewire your house.

Even if, for some reason, you wanted Cat6 cable to deliver 1Gbps to every room throughout your house, the going rate is about $70 per point. But whatever technology is used to deliver fast net, the same things would be required. It's not a requirement of fibre/NBN, it's a requirement to transmit data quickly.



Does this even require a comment?

Vermin will have a go at everything sooner or later, but the NBN are using vermin-resistant cabling from Prysmian and Corning. That said, if it were really a problem, don't you think they'd be eating the plastic coating on the copper and HFC cables as well?


The site has been updated, so you might like to read what real experts have to say about it:
http://nbnmyths.wordpress.com/what-do-the-experts-say/
 
NBNmyths, I have always said there is likely nothing too much wrong with NBN, but it's the high price tag.

Australia is now in debt and that debt is climbing. Ms Gillard wants to impose a levy to help rebuild Qld infrastructure apparently because of insufficient funds.

Under these circumstances, no matter how shiny and nice the new product might be, I don't think this country can afford it right now given it's financial difficulties.

We need to look for a more affordable solution. May not be quite as fast, but if that's all we can afford since labor spent all our savings, that's the way it just may have to be.

BTW are you on a government or NBN payroll?
 
GOSH !!!!! Look at them come out of the woodwork to defend a shiny blue cable. First time poster from NBNMyths is an absolute CORKER !! :

Sooooooooooo we really need to spend 43 billion dollars on a shiny blue cable that will save us from anhilation on the technology front compared to the rest of the world?? This Government can't even manage the existing programmes it has in place let alone introduce the worlds most expensive Fibre Optic Network Cabling System.

No other government in the world has been so ambitious in the scale of the design and massive public funding of a national fibre network, or the constraints on competition from alternative technology.

According to the NBN business plan, the Australian version will require a $27.5bn investment by taxpayers, buttressed by $13.5bn in debt from private investors, mainly from offshore. (To date NIL investors have signed up for it, offshore or otherwise)

Even NBN Co says there is a risk that private investors will not take up the opportunity and $27.5bn could turn into Canberra's minimum commitment. LOLOL ..... Beauty Newk !

Then there is the additional $13bn-plus to be paid to Telstra over several years in exchange for use of its equipment and its commitment to shut down any broadband competition to NBN Co from its copper network and its pay TV cable, which passes 2.4 million homes. (Deal has not been finalised and is still in protracted negotiations)

The more than $40bn required to fund the project is a huge investment for a project that can only offer best guesses on consumer preferences, changing technology, competition from wireless and rollout risk, including the cost and availability of labour.

But the government, backed by NBN Co's figures, insists the project will eventually earn a return of 7 per cent per annum when the network is sold to the public, supposedly in about 20 years. Whoopeeeeeeeeeee a massive 7% ....... can't wait.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...d-up-in-red-tape/story-e6frg8zx-1225985867050

Ummmmmmmmmm ....... Let me get this straight? We are funding it with approx 27.5 BILLION dollars of our tax payers money only to have it sold back to us in about 20 years?

Talk about welfare for the technocrats ........... Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 
Now THAT would be an EXCELLENT plan, and a really visionary one!!! Since they’re going to dig a network of trenches for the NBN, it would certainly make sense to put everything underground while they’re at it, even if it means extending the rollout by several more years, and if the Coalition could adopt it as policy I think many would support it.

The suburb I live in was developed some forty years ago and the decision was made to put all services underground and in the thirty years I’ve lived here we’ve had very few blackouts, no power surges, and no people being electrocuted by fallen wires or losing their hearing while using the phone during a storm. There is no visual pollution of all of those ugly power poles with their webs of wires and no danger of being pooped on by a bird sitting on the overhead wires (as happened in another area once). Going from my suburb into an older suburb with all its poles and wires is like going back in time!

The power and phone cables here run under the concrete footpaths, so are relatively easy to access if needed without destroying any trees or bushes, and it's really difficult for a moron in a backhoe to accidentally dig them up. A Telstra technician showed me recently how they protect their connections from water when the pits flood. The connections are tucked up into a plastic ‘diving bell’ which is suspended inside the pit. The water can only rise so far up into the bell and air pressure then stops it from reaching the connections. The whole system works beautifully!
 
The high price tag depends on how the returns are structured - as a project that is planned to receive a profitable return, it's an off-budget item so scrapping it tomorrow would not effect any surplus/deficit argument.

There are still issues to work though - the battery life in the NBN-box unit is an example, as copper networks are slightly electrified so that if the power is out people still can obtain their legislated access to emergency services. As fible is non-electrified, a battery needs to be installed at the junction so that a certain amount of power is supplied in the event of black-out for that emergency service access. Battery life is (to my knowledge) not yet determined.

Copper is very old technology, and make no mistake that if the regulatory framework was disbanded tomorrow, much of the expensive copper network would fall into disrepair due to unprofitable infrastructure being placed into the "too hard to repair" basket. In a country as sparsely populated as Australia, and with few major players, communications is unfortunately an industry that does require a strong regulatory framework.

I know many are fans of wireless, but we are only a few years away from major spectrum issues that are exaasebated by the rise in data services from smartphones (300% over the last 12 months!). The Voda/Hutch merger will make this a very interesting space to watch in the near future.
 

Yes, it's a big price tag. But good infrastructure costs big money. You could build a cheaper network, but then it wouldn't be as fast, or as universal, and one day we'd have to pony up and do it anyway. Remember what we are doing here...Effectively replacing our entire copper infrastructure with fibre-optic. It's a massive project, hence the cost.

But in the scope of the budget, the Government contribution is quite reasonable. During the 10 years we'll spend $27.5bn on the NBN, we'll spend $1Trillion on public health, $500bn on public education and $200bn on defence.

Our debt is relatively small, and the debt for the NBN (as bonds), is of no concern to me. The debt costs 5%, and will be returned at 7%. It's true that these numbers are based on the business plan, but that's all we have to go on, and it's been generally well received by financial commentators. It's also supported by the KPMG study.

Could we do something cheaper and still deliver significant benefits?

Perhaps, but it wouldn't be very good in the long term. Wireless isn't even a stop-gap option, so that leaves either a copper upgrade of some sort or HFC cable. Upgrading copper is problematic, expensive and a short-term stop-gap. Of the 9200 telephone exchanges in Australia, only 400 have access to multiple ADSL2+ vendors, and the average ADSL2+ speed availability in Australia is 8-9Mbps due to distance issues. To get a decent speed increase (say delivering ~40Mbps to most people) would require the construction of tens-of-thousands of powered nodes containing VDSL tech. But this also requires two pairs of copper to each premises, which only about 15-20% of premises have. So we would need to build and power the nodes, run fibre to them, then run more copper to premises. I don't see there being much of a financial saving, but the outcome is far below what FTTP would bring.

Rolling out more Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) cable is of no cost benefit over fibre, so there's no point doing that. But, perhaps rather than overbuilding the HFC networks, they could be incorporated into the NBN. While the outcome for these areas would be well below the NBN fibre, it could offer short-term savings with no additional costs, and those areas could be fibred at a later date.

There's a great (but technical) comparison of FTTP, FTTN and Wireless by Professor Rod Tucker from Melbourne Uni. If you want a better understanding of the options, it's worth a read.

I don't care who builds the NBN. If the Coalition came up with a viable alternative, I'd be all for it. But their current policy is, to be blunt, backward and atrocious.

No, I'm not on any government, NBN, supplier, contractor or related payroll. I don't know anyone who is and I hold no shares in any company that would benefit from the NBN. I'm a small business owner, but passionate about technology. My only interest in the NBN is that I see it (or something like it) as a necessary piece of infrastructure for our future.


Well, if we want to be technologically competitive, then yes we need to spend it. If technological competitiveness doesn't matter, then we don't need to spend it. That's probably the reason why so many business and technology groups are so supportive of the project.

We are already seeing investment coming in on the back of the NBN, like HP's new $120M regional datacentre in Sydney. We are also seeing the beginning of the job and investment creation due to the construction itself, with hundreds of jobs and millions in Australian manufacturing upgrades:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nbn-bonanza-for-cable-contractors/story-fn6bmfwf-1225990530604
http://delimiter.com.au/2011/01/17/nbn-co-inks-trio-of-small-cable-deals/

Fibre To The Premises (FTTP) is the best technology for communications delivery. It's also the most future proof (upgrade the ends, and the network gets faster). Fibre has been the fastest data transmission medium for 40 years, and current in-use bandwidth for one single strand of fibre is thousands of times greater than the maximum total theoretical bandwidth for wireless, let alone what we can actually get from it. That's why all our major networks are fibre based. All the world's countries, all the telephone exchanges, all the cellular towers are joined by fibre.

Pretty sure that it's not the most expensive fibre cabling system out there. NTT in Japan spent US$47billion on their NBN, and South Korea have just announced that they are spending another US$24bn upgrading their existing fibre network. Now if they are spending $24bn upgrading the hardware, you can be assured that it cost them lots more than that to roll out the fibre+hardware in the first place!

And let's not forget that the total cost isn't just for fibre. There will be hundreds of wireless towers and two dedicated satellites for rural and regional areas where low population density makes fibre cost-prohibitive and wireless viable.

Private funding...No-one has signed up, because no-one has been asked to. Private funding isn't required until 2015.

A 7% return is fine for a non-commercial project, and it doesn't need to be sold to get that return, any future sale is on top of that. The 7% return is purely from revenue.

Now since when do we expect a serious return from Government infrastructure? Do you think the roads, rail, electricity or telephone networks made commercial returns for the Govt when they were rolled out?

As for the future sale... Personally, I'd much rather that it not be sold, and the legislation actually requires the approval of federal parliament for that to take place.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC3TS_qP-xA

This is the future right here right now.

I assume you're inferring that wireless is the future? Sorry, just not possible. There is a reason why there are no telco engineers advocating wireless as a replacement for fixed networks.


I have no issue with people who oppose the NBN for whatever reason. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But they are not entitled to their own facts, which is the entire reason for the NBN Myths site. When people make physically impossible claims about apparently alternate technologies, they should expect to be taken to task on them.
 
Cheers NBNmyths, when you boil it down and look at the facts it's the only alternative to replace the copper network and with time it will revolutionise the way our information/data/entertainment sphere functions.

That comparison link is great and spells out the benefits of fibre in simple terms. It has already been posted here though it doesn't appear to have been read by many.

Fibre To The Premises (FTTP) is the best technology for communications delivery.
The NBN will end up making FOXTEL cable network infrastructure obsolete and will open up the market to many competitors which is why you see the Murdoch rags conducting such a concerted campaign against the rollout.
 
OK I can see NBN may ultimately be inevitable/desirable/necessary:

But the thing that concerns me is NBN on top of of bewildering myriad of wasteful programs/quangos/middle class welfare/etc/etc/etc/etc.

1/ Form a razor gang to address the above

2/ I see no harm in delaying the roll-out of NBN to put basic infrastructure back together after the east coast troubles etc.
 
The NBN will end up making FOXTEL cable network infrastructure obsolete and will open up the market to many competitors which is why you see the Murdoch rags conducting such a concerted campaign against the rollout.
I'm sorry, but can someone pro-NBN please address the fact that it is funded with expropriated money? It is not an enterprise. Can they also please address the fact that any pro-NBN argument can also be applied to any other tax-funded project, regardless of its size?

Regarding public projects - whether or not a man or a group of men can explain that a project is fantastic, we would never accept it is so fantastic as to allow them to rob us to fund it. Why is it that when the group of men is referred to with the English word 'government', a group formed by elections, does it become right that they can expropriate whatever funds they so wish, in whatever quantity they deem appropriate, to fund whatever project they consider good?
There is a place for such people - jail.
 

Well, if you go to an election with a policy to spend a certain amount of money on a certain project, and you are voted into Government, then I would suggest that you are well within your rights to spend that amount of money on that project.

You may question the legitimacy of the Labor Government at this time, but there is no question that a majority of Australians voted for parties (Labor or Greens) or independents (all of them) that supported the NBN. In other words, a majority of Australians voted to spend the money on the NBN.

Given this, how is the money expropriated?

I'm not sure what you mean by "any pro-NBN argument can also be applied to any other tax-funded project, regardless of its size?"
 
zzaaxxss3401 & NBNMyths thanks guys great input
 

I am all for the NBN spending being scrutinised to ensure value for money. I am relieved that it's not the Government who is actually building it, and that they have recruited some very respected talent to run NBN Co.

The only valid reason I can see for a delay is if the rebuild leads to a labour shortage, and a subsequent increase in the cost of the rollout. In this case, NBN should be able to concentrate on unaffected areas first. But delaying due to the cost of recovery alone does not provide any benefit.
 
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