The takeup rates have absolutely no bearing on how many will sign up for the service.
As has been shown with the Tasmanian towns of Scottsdale, Smithton and Midway point. There was a reasonably high take up rate but a very poor sign up rate for services.
Not unlike what happened with Foxtel when they rolled out fibre in the early days. If you signed up for a month they connected you free.
I installed it in the early days, had it for the month, gave the box back and never had it since. Actually Foxtel is available to 70% of Australian homes and it has huge problems with takeup rates.
Your talk off expected takeup of connections due to access to increased speed could be chalenged also. If we take the case of existing landline connections, they are much faster than wireless, however customers are leaving in droves for the flexibility of wireless.
You can put lipstick on the pig, but it is still a pig and one that is going to cost us dearly.
My contacts in El Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad (ICE) in Costa Rica tell me that there is an extraordinary interest in this thread by the regulators and judiciary of that country. ICE regulates communications in that land of probity.
May I remind posters that comments in this thread, should any of you be extradited to that country to face bribery and corruption charges, may be used in evidence in that country.
Not that any longterm posters would be, but for the newbies and the innocence challenged, so that you are aware.
gg
The connection rates in Tasmania were far below the mainland sites. Only about 49%, compared to an average of about 80% on the mainland. That's a big difference.
I've already mentioned the reasons why the Tasmania service uptake is low at this stage.
It's a fallacy that people are leaving landlines "in droves" for wireless. People are adding wireless services. There is a slight fall in the number of landline phone services, but that's not a fall in landlines as such. People are dumping their fixed phone line for naked ADSL services where they are available. This shows up in stats as a reduction in the number of fixed lines, but the fixed data connection is still there.
For evidence of the growing rise in fixed data lines, let me point you to the latest ABS statistics for internet downloads:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8153.0/
Showing that downloads over fixed connections (ADSL and Cable) grew by 61,000 TB between Q4 2009 and Q4 2010, to a total of 175,000 Terabytes. Over the same period, mobile broadband connections only grew by 2,000 Terabytes, to 17,000 total.
The statistics quite clearly show that while the number of mobile broadband connections is growing rapidly, the growth is not coming at the expense of fixed connections, which also continue to grow. Fixed lines continue to experience enormous growth as the 'heavy lifters' of our growing data consumption.
Foxtel is a poor analogy. Who'd want it? I'm quite happy with free TV, thanks.
The NBN will, for all intents, be replacing the current copper phone and internet system. A system with well over 90% connection rates. And the NBN are only banking on 73% by 2025.
It's a bit rich translating increased data volume to increase in connection numbers. It could be that a smaller number of users are downloading more.
I can only go from articles I read in the press and people in circle of family and aqaintances, most of whom are either wireless or are trying to become wireless.
As for Foxtel being a poor analogy, I beg to differ. There is no difference between being happy with free to air t.v or being happy with the current internet speed.
At least with Foxtel you have the choice whether you want it or not and don't tell me I have a choice with N.B.N. We are all paying for it one way or another.
Actually your last paragraph was very enlightening, you appear well connected(no pun intended) with the N.B.N.
You have been very precise about the way you use the words connection and services. By 2025 N.B.N is only working on a connection rate of 73% to be profitable .
Which must mean that even if people aren't using the services they will be paying for the connection .
The same ABS stats show that the number of ADSL fixed connections grew from 4,178,000 in 2009 to 4,458,000 in 2010 (up 300,000). Growth for Cable is not provided, while Fibre grew from 11,000 to 24,000, showing new estates taking up fibre connections instead of copper.
According to the ABS, we only build about 160,000 new dwellings per year, so the growth of fixed lines is running at almost 200% of the growth in new premises. Does that sound like the death of the fixed connection?
There's no doubt that the number of mobile broadband connections are growing at a faster rate, but that's to be expected as a reasonably new technology and it's coming from a much smaller base. You also often have more than one mobile connection per household. What's important is that their growth clearly isn't coming at the expense of fixed connections.
It's also worth noting that the average download over all connections now is 18GB per month, while the biggest Telstra wireless broadband plan is only 12GB per month. In other words, you can't even buy a mobile broadband plan that satisfies the average monthly download!
You do have a choice with the NBN. If you don't want it, don't get connected. You won't be paying for it, the users will. All of the govt investment is repaid by the users of the network.
The difference with foxtel is that it costs you money, while free TV doesn't. The NBN won't cost you any more than your current copper phone/ADSL service, unless you choose to take the faster speeds available (a choice you don't have with copper).
No sorry, I used the wrong terms there. The NBN are banking on a 73% service takeup rate by 2025. Connection rates are irrelevant because there's no charge for a connection.
The last figures I saw had 88% of Australian homes with an active fixed phone line, plus another 6% with a naked-DSL or fibre service, for a total of 94% active fixed services.
Now considering that the copper network will be progressively decommissioned but has 94% active connections, our data appetite is growing at 50% per year (which wireless cannot handle) and wireless is ridiculously expensive compared to fixed, do you really think it will be hard to achieve a 73% service takeup rate?
You do have a choice with the NBN. If you don't want it, don't get connected. You won't be paying for it, the users will.
It's also worth noting that the average download over all connections now is 18GB per month, while the biggest Telstra wireless broadband plan is only 12GB per month. In other words, you can't even buy a mobile broadband plan that satisfies the average monthly download!
The connection rates in Tasmania were far below the mainland sites. Only about 49%, compared to an average of about 80% on the mainland. That's a big difference.
The difference with foxtel is that it costs you money, while free TV doesn't. The NBN won't cost you any more than your current copper phone/ADSL service, unless you choose to take the faster speeds available (a choice you don't have with copper).
YA HAVE GOT TO BE JOKING ME !!!!!!!!!!!!! 36 billion dollars of tax payers money to fund this IS PAYING FOR IT !!!!!!!! Don't sugar coat it, this is the TRUTH.
For crying out loud man ....... take off the rose coloured glasses and look around. The more you post the more stoooooooooopid you look.
OK I don't want the NBN. Does this mean they will stop spending 36 billion dollars of taxpayers money to put a shiny blue cable in the ground?? I think not.
If you are gonna tell a bullsh1t story at least stick to the middle ground. SHEEEEESH
FFS I have never been so angry at the sheeet that I read on the internet !!!!!!
PROVIDE EVIDENCE RATHER THAN YOUR BULLSH!T TRAPPINGS PLEASE. Just because you type it does not make it so. Just the facts M'aam ... just the facts.
Once again NBNMyths wrote this:-
760 people are connected to the NBN ......... WOW !!!!!!!
How can you average takeup rates on such a small demographic??? 4000 homes in Tasmania has access to NBN (according to you) and how many are connected? If we use YOUR maths then there should be 1960 (or 49%) people on the NBN. BTW which there is NOT. Blowing chunks in your story here NBNMyths.
If you are gonna sprout stats and figures at least PLEASE stay consistent.
Errrrrrrmmmmmmmmm NBNMyths wrote this as well:-
Nope ...... guess again ....... there is a whole wide range of plans available to you with fixed copper lines. LMAO
Dodo, Bigpond, iinet, Westnet, Optus, etcetera etcetera.
50GB for $49.95 per month with Telstra??? Noooooooooooooooo !!!!!!!!!!
http://broadband.smh.com.au/Broadba...e-ADSL-50GB-Multiple-Product-Bundle-24-Months
Add in your mobile phone and your land line for $100 per month ..............
Up to 200GB per month for $69.95 per month as well !!!!!!!
Probably gonna get me banned for at least 6 months with the tirade but it was worth it.
Check this out trainspotter, obviously were not the only ones that think it is a massive wate of money.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bu...me-broadband-fiasco-for-minerals-tax-forrest/
Maybe the pressure sell of the "pigs ear" isn't going as well as labor would like to think it is.
In Tasmania, 18% (of the total, not of the 49%) have now taken up an active service on the NBN. Active service figures for the mainland are not yet available, because people can't connect yet unless invited to participate in the trial phase.
I don't know where those chunks are from, but they aren't in my story!:
I conducted an assessment of the situation and suggested that one reason for the tender cost blow-out related to speculation that the disastrous industrial agreement at Victoria's desalination plant was flowing over to the NBN construction. The desalination agreement imposes pay and conditions way above standard construction rates. If NBN tenderers had applied the desalination agreement rates to the NBN, this would arguably increase the NBN's construction costs by some 25 per cent. NBN Co had apparently accused construction companies of price gouging whereas in fact the companies were costing prudently based on facts known at the time.
Update: Industrial agreement risk
More recently, however, it's been revealed that NBN Co and the government have worked on deals to get around the militant construction unions that have caused trouble and cost blow-outs at the Victorian desalination plant. They say that they have secured alternative industrial agreements with other unions that will deliver the NBN construction within reasonable costs. I can now reveal a further development in this continuing saga.
I've received a copy from highly placed sources of the alleged revised template industrial agreement intended to apply to all contractors who undertake the NBN rollout. I'm reliably informed that any company bidding for NBN work 'understands' that this industrial agreement is the one they will need to apply to their workforces if they win work. There's nothing official about this, of course. That's the way big business-big government-big union deal-making works in Australia. There's lots of winks and nudges, but any company putting in a tender 'knows' that if it doesn't apply the 'politically approved' union agreement, its chances of tender success are negligible. My information is that current tender preparations are based on the industrial agreement template I've received.
National Broadband Nasties---Wikileaks? [6 June 2011]
No, we're not Wikileaks, but we've been leaked the standard industrial agreement that contractors will allegedly need to use for the rollout of the National Broadband Network. We've done an assessment which reveals that the Agreement will trigger uncontrolled cost blow-outs to the $36 billion project. There's big risk for big construction company CEOs. Here's:
What was the forecast take up rate for the NBN?
And what is the NPV of the project? positive or negative? by how much?
The forecast is 68% by 2010 and 73% by 2025. The Tasmanian situation is not representative for the reasons I've already detailed in this post.
I have no idea what the NPV of it is. My guess would be very much in the negative right now, considering it's not even in volume rollout yet.
2010? Maybe 2020?
The net present value of the project should have been calculated at the beginning and take into account all future cash flows over the entire life of the project and assess whether they are greater than zero. What you have just referred to is the current return. Two very different things.
Oooo. We are cranky today, aren't we?
The truth? Maybe you should keep checking. The total amount of "taxpayers" dollars invested into the NBN is $27 billion, not 36.
Next, they aren't spending this money, they are investing it into a project that will repay the money. The NBN is funded by the issuing Government bonds to raise the money, at (currently) about 5%pa. The NBN is forecast to provide a return of 7%pa. Do you understand what this means? Once the network is operational, all of the "taxpayers" dollars are returned, including the interest.
How much evidence would you like?
Here is the link (again) to the latest ABS stats for internet use. Note that the total amount of data downloaded for December 2010 is 191,839 TB. The total number of connections was 10,446. Divide users into data, and you come up with 18.36GB per user, per month. It's not hard.
Now, here is a link to Telstra's mobile broadband plans. Note that the largest one is $89.95 per month (without a bundled home phone), and includes 12GB of data per month.
Let me standardise some terminology:
Connected to the NBN: You have accepted a physical connection to the NBN (ie, you have an NBN box on your house ready for use). This costs you nothing.
Active service: You have accepted a physical connection, AND you have an active NBN service with an RSP (ISP). This costs you a monthly fee.
In Tasmania, ~49% of people in the covered area have taken up a connection to the NBN fibre cable. They have a box on the side of their house, and can ring an RSP and ask for a service whenever they want, but they are not necessarily using it. On the mainland, the average connection rate is about 75%, with the highest being Armidale and Willunga at 90%, and the lowest being Brunswick at 58%.
In Tasmania, 18% (of the total, not of the 49%) have now taken up an active service on the NBN. Active service figures for the mainland are not yet available, because people can't connect yet unless invited to participate in the trial phase.
And there will be a whole range of plans, from a whole range of RSPs under the NBN too. I'd expect final pricing to be out in a month or two, but for now here's some Tasmanian pricing. Note that in Tassie, the RSPs only paid a flat $300 fee for 12 months connection, with no ongoing usage charges. This is $25 per month. Once the OSS/BSS comes online though, it will go up slightly to the final wholesale pricing. eg, a 12/1Mbps connection will cost the RSPs ~$28 per month including about 50GB of data.
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