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NBN Rollout Scrapped

Do you have figures to backup the idea that people are dropping fixed line broadband in droves?

Wireless is often not used to replace fixed line broadband. End of financial year reporting will be interesting. iinet is experiencing growth. Telstra seems to be having plenty of signups - they increased value.
 

The connection rates in Tasmania were far below the mainland sites. Only about 49%, compared to an average of about 80% on the mainland. That's a big difference.

I've already mentioned the reasons why the Tasmania service uptake is low at this stage.

It's a fallacy that people are leaving landlines "in droves" for wireless. People are adding wireless services. There is a slight fall in the number of landline phone services, but that's not a fall in landlines as such. People are dumping their fixed phone line for naked ADSL services where they are available. This shows up in stats as a reduction in the number of fixed lines, but the fixed data connection is still there.

For evidence of the growing rise in fixed data lines, let me point you to the latest ABS statistics for internet downloads:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8153.0/

Showing that downloads over fixed connections (ADSL and Cable) grew by 61,000 TB between Q4 2009 and Q4 2010, to a total of 175,000 Terabytes. Over the same period, mobile broadband connections only grew by 2,000 Terabytes, to 17,000 total.

The statistics quite clearly show that while the number of mobile broadband connections is growing rapidly, the growth is not coming at the expense of fixed connections, which also continue to grow. Fixed lines continue to experience enormous growth as the 'heavy lifters' of our growing data consumption.

Foxtel is a poor analogy. Who'd want it? I'm quite happy with free TV, thanks.

The NBN will, for all intents, be replacing the current copper phone and internet system. A system with well over 90% connection rates. And the NBN are only banking on 73% by 2025.
 
My contacts in El Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad (ICE) in Costa Rica tell me that there is an extraordinary interest in this thread by the regulators and judiciary of that country. ICE regulates communications in that land of probity.

May I remind posters that comments in this thread, should any of you be extradited to that country to face bribery and corruption charges, may be used in evidence in that country.

Not that any longterm posters would be, but for the newbies and the innocence challenged, so that you are aware.

gg
 

Are your contacts in Costa Rica any more accurate/reliable than the ones who told you the NBN was being scrapped, leading to the creation of this thread in the first place?
 

It's a bit rich translating increased data volume to increase in connection numbers. It could be that a smaller number of users are downloading more.
I can only go from articles I read in the press and people in circle of family and aqaintances, most of whom are either wireless or are trying to become wireless.

As for Foxtel being a poor analogy, I beg to differ. There is no difference between being happy with free to air t.v or being happy with the current internet speed.
At least with Foxtel you have the choice whether you want it or not and don't tell me I have a choice with N.B.N. We are all paying for it one way or another.

Actually your last paragraph was very enlightening, you appear well connected(no pun intended) with the N.B.N.
You have been very precise about the way you use the words connection and services. By 2025 N.B.N is only working on a connection rate of 73% to be profitable .
Which must mean that even if people aren't using the services they will be paying for the connection .
 

The same ABS stats show that the number of ADSL fixed connections grew from 4,178,000 in 2009 to 4,458,000 in 2010 (up 300,000). Growth for Cable is not provided, while Fibre grew from 11,000 to 24,000, showing new estates taking up fibre connections instead of copper.

According to the ABS, we only build about 160,000 new dwellings per year, so the growth of fixed lines is running at almost 200% of the growth in new premises. Does that sound like the death of the fixed connection?

There's no doubt that the number of mobile broadband connections are growing at a faster rate, but that's to be expected as a reasonably new technology and it's coming from a much smaller base. You also often have more than one mobile connection per household. What's important is that their growth clearly isn't coming at the expense of fixed connections.

It's also worth noting that the average download over all connections now is 18GB per month, while the biggest Telstra wireless broadband plan is only 12GB per month. In other words, you can't even buy a mobile broadband plan that satisfies the average monthly download!

You do have a choice with the NBN. If you don't want it, don't get connected. You won't be paying for it, the users will. All of the govt investment is repaid by the users of the network.

The difference with foxtel is that it costs you money, while free TV doesn't. The NBN won't cost you any more than your current copper phone/ADSL service, unless you choose to take the faster speeds available (a choice you don't have with copper).

No sorry, I used the wrong terms there. The NBN are banking on a 73% service takeup rate by 2025. Connection rates are irrelevant because there's no charge for a connection.

The last figures I saw had 88% of Australian homes with an active fixed phone line, plus another 6% with a naked-DSL or fibre service, for a total of 94% active fixed services.

Now considering that the copper network will be progressively decommissioned but has 94% active connections, our data appetite is growing at 50% per year (which wireless cannot handle) and wireless is ridiculously expensive compared to fixed, do you really think it will be hard to achieve a 73% service takeup rate?
 

From your comprehensive data I would have to agree the expectation of 73% is reasonable.
However this doesn't diminish the fact that it is a huge financial impost on infrastructure of questionable value. Again this is only my opinion.
Time will tell if it is success or a huge white elephant.
Also like I said earlier, saying it won't cost me money if I don't connect is rubish, all taxpayers are paying for it.
Also if it is not as successful and runs at a loss, taxpayers will continue to pay for it ad infenitum to cover the losses.

As for your data. By the the next election,actual service take up as a percentage of connections and real life costs should be available. Then we will be able to differentiate between speculation and fact.
Not unlike River City Motorway traffic projections and cost base analysis during the selling process verses real life.
 
NBNMyths wrote this :-

You do have a choice with the NBN. If you don't want it, don't get connected. You won't be paying for it, the users will.

YA HAVE GOT TO BE JOKING ME !!!!!!!!!!!!! 36 billion dollars of tax payers money to fund this IS PAYING FOR IT !!!!!!!! Don't sugar coat it, this is the TRUTH.

For crying out loud man ....... take off the rose coloured glasses and look around. The more you post the more stoooooooooopid you look.

OK I don't want the NBN. Does this mean they will stop spending 36 billion dollars of taxpayers money to put a shiny blue cable in the ground?? I think not.

If you are gonna tell a bullsh1t story at least stick to the middle ground. SHEEEEESH

FFS I have never been so angry at the sheeet that I read on the internet !!!!!!
 
NBNMyths wrote this as well:-


PROVIDE EVIDENCE RATHER THAN YOUR BULLSH!T TRAPPINGS PLEASE. Just because you type it does not make it so. Just the facts M'aam ... just the facts.
 
Once again NBNMyths wrote this:-

The connection rates in Tasmania were far below the mainland sites. Only about 49%, compared to an average of about 80% on the mainland. That's a big difference.

760 people are connected to the NBN ......... WOW !!!!!!!

How can you average takeup rates on such a small demographic??? 4000 homes in Tasmania has access to NBN (according to you) and how many are connected? If we use YOUR maths then there should be 1960 (or 49%) people on the NBN. BTW which there is NOT. Blowing chunks in your story here NBNMyths.

If you are gonna sprout stats and figures at least PLEASE stay consistent.
 
Errrrrrrmmmmmmmmm NBNMyths wrote this as well:-

The difference with foxtel is that it costs you money, while free TV doesn't. The NBN won't cost you any more than your current copper phone/ADSL service, unless you choose to take the faster speeds available (a choice you don't have with copper).

Nope ...... guess again ....... there is a whole wide range of plans available to you with fixed copper lines. LMAO

Dodo, Bigpond, iinet, Westnet, Optus, etcetera etcetera.

50GB for $49.95 per month with Telstra??? Noooooooooooooooo !!!!!!!!!!

http://broadband.smh.com.au/Broadba...e-ADSL-50GB-Multiple-Product-Bundle-24-Months

Add in your mobile phone and your land line for $100 per month ..............

Up to 200GB per month for $69.95 per month as well !!!!!!!

Probably gonna get me banned for at least 6 months with the tirade but it was worth it.
 

Oooo. We are cranky today, aren't we?

The truth? Maybe you should keep checking. The total amount of "taxpayers" dollars invested into the NBN is $27 billion, not 36.

Next, they aren't spending this money, they are investing it into a project that will repay the money. The NBN is funded by the issuing Government bonds to raise the money, at (currently) about 5%pa. The NBN is forecast to provide a return of 7%pa. Do you understand what this means? Once the network is operational, all of the "taxpayers" dollars are returned, including the interest.

Now you take off the blackout mask and try to understand. :


PROVIDE EVIDENCE RATHER THAN YOUR BULLSH!T TRAPPINGS PLEASE. Just because you type it does not make it so. Just the facts M'aam ... just the facts.

How much evidence would you like?

Here is the link (again) to the latest ABS stats for internet use. Note that the total amount of data downloaded for December 2010 is 191,839 TB. The total number of connections was 10,446. Divide users into data, and you come up with 18.36GB per user, per month. It's not hard.

Now, here is a link to Telstra's mobile broadband plans. Note that the largest one is $89.95 per month (without a bundled home phone), and includes 12GB of data per month.

OK? Oh, and :



Oh dear. Let me standardise some terminology:

Connected to the NBN: You have accepted a physical connection to the NBN (ie, you have an NBN box on your house ready for use). This costs you nothing.

Active service: You have accepted a physical connection, AND you have an active NBN service with an RSP (ISP). This costs you a monthly fee.

In Tasmania, ~49% of people in the covered area have taken up a connection to the NBN fibre cable. They have a box on the side of their house, and can ring an RSP and ask for a service whenever they want, but they are not necessarily using it. On the mainland, the average connection rate is about 75%, with the highest being Armidale and Willunga at 90%, and the lowest being Brunswick at 58%.

In Tasmania, 18% (of the total, not of the 49%) have now taken up an active service on the NBN. Active service figures for the mainland are not yet available, because people can't connect yet unless invited to participate in the trial phase.

I don't know where those chunks are from, but they aren't in my story! :



And there will be a whole range of plans, from a whole range of RSPs under the NBN too. I'd expect final pricing to be out in a month or two, but for now here's some Tasmanian pricing. Note that in Tassie, the RSPs only paid a flat $300 fee for 12 months connection, with no ongoing usage charges. This is $25 per month. Once the OSS/BSS comes online though, it will go up slightly to the final wholesale pricing. eg, a 12/1Mbps connection will cost the RSPs ~$28 per month including about 50GB of data.

Tasmanian NBN plans, including the data listed, plus a VoIP phone and all local and national calls:

20GB $39.90
200GB $59.90
400GB $79.90
1TB $109.90

http://www.iinet.net.au/nbn/

:

Probably gonna get me banned for at least 6 months with the tirade but it was worth it.

Was it?
 
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Oh, well that's it then. Game over. If someone with morals as high as Twiggy says so, then it must be true.

Oh, and I'm sure that Twiggy has a much better grasp on network technology than Vint Cerf and all those so-called intertube experts and assorted business leaders.
 


What was the forecast take up rate for the NBN?
And what is the NPV of the project? positive or negative? by how much?
 
Here is a bit on costs and comments on the contract

http://www.contractworld.com.au/general/ica-NBN-industrial-agreement-risk.php
Is a link to the site

http://www.contractworld.com.au/#
There is further information if you scroll down a bit on the page

I'm for nbn at this stage, but there are plenty of elements I do not like in the construction/ cost.
 
What was the forecast take up rate for the NBN?
And what is the NPV of the project? positive or negative? by how much?

The forecast is 68% by 2010 and 73% by 2025. The Tasmanian situation is not representative for the reasons I've already detailed in this post.

Let me repeat the bit about ADSL takeup, as I think it puts it very much into perspective. The Tassie NBN has a takeup of 18% after 10 months. After a similar period 8 years ago, ADSL takeup was only 3%. If you'd looked at that 3% back then, would you have thought the current rate would be achievable, just 8 years later?

I have no idea what the NPV of it is. My guess would be very much in the negative right now, considering it's not even in volume rollout yet.
 

2010? Maybe 2020?

The net present value of the project should have been calculated at the beginning and take into account all future cash flows over the entire life of the project and assess whether they are greater than zero. What you have just referred to is the current return. Two very different things.
 

I did just find this NPV calculation from a guy on whirlpool. It's a bit out of date now, but the assumptions are in there. Take it as you will.
http://www.thejoie.com/welcome/docs/NBN_NPVyr1-15.xls
 

LOLOL ....... And you honestly expect this to happen? Delusional at best. Pie in the sky wankfest at worst. Spending the taxpayers dollars there dude, hardly investing at all.

TELSTRA'S $9 billion deal with the NBN Co could be settled as early as this week and will include break fees that could be worth more than $1 billion to protect shareholders should the $36bn rollout be abandoned or substantially revised in the future.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...es-nbn-break-fee/story-e6frg8zx-1226073987329

If it so set in concrete of it's success then why would the Government agree to break fees then?


Not that hard now was it? If you are gonna sprout the stats please provide the links.



Bwahahaahahahhaaaaa *gasp* gagagagagaaaahahaha GAG ! I remember when they laid out the deep sewer ........ it was free as well to start with. It was YOUR cost to connect in, which is fine. After a while the people weren't connecting into the deep sewer so the Government MADE YOU PAY FOR IT even when you weren't connected TO FORCE YOU to connect. Internet banking was promoted the same way. NO FEES ... IT'S ALL FREE ........ yeah right !!!!!!!!!!

So we have all of these people with a box strapped to the side of their house and doing nuffin. YAY !!!!!!! That's sensible now isn't it !!!!


I want a Panadol for the crapola you are selling. CHUNKS !!!!!!!!!! :

 
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