Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NBN Rollout Scrapped

You were doing so well NBNMyths until you started playing the man.

Just the facts M'aam .... just the facts.

Do you have a cost analysis available thus far? As in how much has been spent to date to get this coverage? 10 billion in CONTRACTS have been let. How much of this money has actually been spent to wind the shiny blue cable around Tasmania as per So_Cyclicals map??? How much did Armidale cost to bring on line?

No idea on either question, sorry.
 
Well assuming that there is 36 billion to be spent and there are 11 miilion or so of taxpayers in Australia to fund this shiny blue cable and it goes past 4000 homes in Tasmania ....... surely it is not that hard to do the maths?? ;)

It would be an average of course.
 
It might be a case of start from the bottom and work their way up. Lotta money up for grabs. Nice work if you can get it and all that jazz.
 
Well assuming that there is 36 billion to be spent and there are 11 miilion or so of taxpayers in Australia to fund this shiny blue cable and it goes past 4000 homes in Tasmania ....... surely it is not that hard to do the maths?? ;)

It would be an average of course.

I would assume that the cost per premises in Tasmania (and the mainland trial sites for that matter)is substantially higher than what the final rollout will cost. It was a totally new experience for the contractors, using assorted machinery specially imported for the rollout to trial various methods of trenching and installation. There have also ben changes made to the hardware equipment, and contracts for volume supply which weren't in place for Tassie.

eg: A company I worked for purchased a fleet of 80 vehicles, with two prototypes from different manufacturers before deciding on one and going into production. The prototypes cost over 150% the price of the final production vehicles, and they weren't particularly complex....

I have often heard NBN staff referring to the rollout as a modular system. ie, that they aren't building a huge one-off network. They are building thousands of little, very similar networks. The thought being that once the process is developed and standardised, it gets cheaper and easier as time progresses.
 
Some high density areas may not see the update you may think. Existing contracts and some may have cable. NBN's fibre may not give them access to anything new.

Some of the extra cost for the Tassie build out would be backhaul etc. In the extra stages there will be less need to build backhual - some of it was laid in stage 1. So a part of it is about deploying alternative to Telstra backhaul. It could potentially have consumer cost drive downs and develop better competitive environment.

My comments about USA, Japan is more about how the coalition spruke their rhetoric about not done elsewhere. Many aspects of what NBN is planning to do is being deployed in other countries or has been deployed. Coalition need to be precise about some comments to add clarity. UK has having some deployments. NZ, USA is getting wireless expansion subsidised, Japan's subsidies (govt + telcos could come to an agreement) and so forth.

If Telstra could have found a way to find a suitable agreement and wanted it to happen then govt + Telstra would have much of it already deployed.

I'm a bit disappointed ACCC gave in to Telstra and Optus on POI. While Telstra and Optus would have had redundant invenstments - in time it could enable them to be decommissioned and reduce some costs. Less to maintain, operate etc.
 
I would assume that the cost per premises in Tasmania (and the mainland trial sites for that matter)is substantially higher than what the final rollout will cost. It was a totally new experience for the contractors, using assorted machinery specially imported for the rollout to trial various methods of trenching and installation. There have also ben changes made to the hardware equipment, and contracts for volume supply which weren't in place for Tassie.

eg: A company I worked for purchased a fleet of 80 vehicles, with two prototypes from different manufacturers before deciding on one and going into production. The prototypes cost over 150% the price of the final production vehicles, and they weren't particularly complex....

I have often heard NBN staff referring to the rollout as a modular system. ie, that they aren't building a huge one-off network. They are building thousands of little, very similar networks. The thought being that once the process is developed and standardised, it gets cheaper and easier as time progresses.

Hencewhy my stand is to ask WHY is it being rolled out in the high risk/cost/implematation/manpower/income etc in the first place????????

How is it that you are hearing from NBN staff this closely? Do you want to stop the charade and come clean? I am more than happy for you to come out onto the flat and have an open discussion about this marvelous technology that is unfolding before us at taxpayers expense.

They are building thousands of little, very similar networks. The thought being that once the process is developed and standardised, it gets cheaper and easier as time progresses

Well DUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHH .......... ya think??????? Would it not have been better to place it in a density area that the "networks" could have evolved??????? HELLO???

To say it went into Tassie FIRST to test the technology is a CROCK OF ****. :banghead:
 
Some high density areas may not see the update you may think. Existing contracts and some may have cable. NBN's fibre may not give them access to anything new.

My comments about USA, Japan is more about how the coalition spruke their rhetoric about not done elsewhere. Many aspects of what NBN is planning to do is being deployed in other countries or has been deployed. Coalition need to be precise about some comments to add clarity. UK has having some deployments. NZ, USA is getting wireless expansion subsidised, Japan's subsidies (govt + telcos could come to an agreement) and so forth.

If Telstra could have found a way to find a suitable agreement and wanted it to happen then govt + Telstra would have much of it already deployed.

I'm a bit disappointed ACCC gave in to Telstra and Optus on POI. While Telstra and Optus would have had redundant invenstments - in time it could enable them to be decommissioned and reduce some costs. Less to maintain, operate etc.

So now the high density areas are already covered with enough internet speed? WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA? No significant improvement or access to anything new WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA?

Take the politics out of it boofehead. I am not interested in debating Libs/USA/Japan/NZ governmental controls as to whom is doing what to whom. I DON"T CARE !!!!!!!!!!! This is not political anymore. It is about DELIVERANCE of the greatest nation building exercise in our countries history. I want VALUE for my dollar and I damn well better get answers. :mad:

Agreed that Telstra has been a stumbling block. Waitaminute ! The Guvmint used to own this olygopoly and now it is curtailed by the dragon !! Bwhahahahhahahahhahahaaaaaaaaaa ...... so much for privatisation eh??

We had one of these previously .... it was called Telstra ...... they sold it ......... now they want to build a new one ........ anyone but me see the irony?? HUH ?? Well do ya???
 
The only saving grace, trainspotter, is the majority of the general public can see the absurdity of it. The next election is going to be memorable.
Since it's inception we have been supporting the concept that the government should have bought back Telstra at a fair and reasonable price. Then reconfigured it as it liked and refloat the sections as it saw fit.
However that would have meant giving back taxpayers money, much better to use new taxpayers money and take back(cherry pick) the best parts that you sold off the first time.
The problem is when a politically and ideologically driven belief is forced upon the people who then have to fund it, without being asked if they want it, smacks of extreme socialism.
When this is added to the hand outs you had to have. The home insulation you had to pay for, one way or another and if you had already put it in yourself, you had to subsidise everyone else. The set top box you never asked for, but no $400 if you don't want it or already have it.
It is as though the country is being run like a department store, the only difference is they fill up your basket with crap you don't want. But you don't have any choice and still have to pay for it.
There is no rhyme or reason to their chaotic policy on the run.
This isn't governing it is chaos management.
 
So now the high density areas are already covered with enough internet speed? WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA? No significant improvement or access to anything new WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA?

Take the politics out of it boofehead. I am not interested in debating Libs/USA/Japan/NZ governmental controls as to whom is doing what to whom. I DON"T CARE !!!!!!!!!!! This is not political anymore. It is about DELIVERANCE of the greatest nation building exercise in our countries history. I want VALUE for my dollar and I damn well better get answers. :mad:

Agreed that Telstra has been a stumbling block. Waitaminute ! The Guvmint used to own this olygopoly and now it is curtailed by the dragon !! Bwhahahahhahahahhahahaaaaaaaaaa ...... so much for privatisation eh??

We had one of these previously .... it was called Telstra ...... they sold it ......... now they want to build a new one ........ anyone but me see the irony?? HUH ?? Well do ya???

Who sold it ?
 
I'm starting to get the feeling that the timing of the NBN roll out is going to be near perfect with the CFC impacts rolling on and the need to boost employment and stimulate the non mining economy etc...i have a feeling that the NBN is going to go down in history as one of the greatest achievements of any Aust Govt.

Perhaps even Snowy scheme, MIA, Opera house status. :2twocents

The only saving grace, trainspotter, is the majority of the general public can see the absurdity of it. The next election is going to be memorable.

I Agree...the next election will be memorable because Labor will be returned with a slightly increased majority and the Coalition will be forced to abandon its extreme right wing agenda and make a realistic effort to engage the mainstream of Aust politics...1 Vote Tony will be a 2 time loser and replaced with Malcolm (inevitable) Turnbull.
 
I'm starting to get the feeling that the timing of the NBN roll out is going to be near perfect with the CFC impacts rolling on and the need to boost employment and stimulate the non mining economy etc...i have a feeling that the NBN is going to go down in history as one of the greatest achievements of any Aust Govt.

Perhaps even Snowy scheme, MIA, Opera house status. :2twocents



I Agree...the next election will be memorable because Labor will be returned with a slightly increased majority and the Coalition will be forced to abandon its extreme right wing agenda and make a realistic effort to engage the mainstream of Aust politics...1 Vote Tony will be a 2 time loser and replaced with Malcolm (inevitable) Turnbull.

Well I will be the first to eat humble pie if you are proved correct. Time will tell.
By the way who do you think will be leading labor at the next election?
 
So now the high density areas are already covered with enough internet speed? WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA? No significant improvement or access to anything new WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA?


I didn't say they have enough internet speed. I'm saying places like some areas of Hobart have competition for fibre/backhaul. They have choices. Outside of Hobart the choice is typically only Telstra. You can follow Whirlpool and read the feedback from various ISPs on how Telstra operate. Telstra talks about needing to cover costs. Competition arrives and they still talk about covering costs but magically the costs come down to match the competition. Gouging.
 
Thanks for clarifying that boofhead. Telstra has performed this magic trick for a very long time now so nothing new in the statement provided. They are the first to crack the whip on the competition as well. *GOSH* I hate Telstra.

Anyhooooo ...... I cannot see how the shiny blue cable is going to be the saviour of Australia by boosting employment and stimulate the non mining economy etc.? I can see a sheeetload of people sitting in darkened rooms playing FPS games. All 64 of them running around in cyberworld shooting each other. GREAT !!!!!!!!!

Meanwhile BACK ON TOPIC !!!!!!

“It may be possible for you to connect to the National Broadband Network using fibre optic technology, if you agree to pay NBN Co to extend the fibre optic network to your property,” wrote Flemming. “Over the coming months, NBN Co is performing a trial of the fibre optic network extension process with selected properties that border the Tasmania Second Release sites of Triabunna, Sorell, Deloraine, St Helens and South Hobart.”

http://delimiter.com.au/2011/06/11/nbn-co-kicks-off-fibre-extension-trial/

Now that makes sense to me. I can see a profit to be turned on this one. Fibre just misses your property by a smidge so you pay for it to be connected. OR you can sit back and do nothing and get satellite/wireless connection for free. Hmmmmmmmmm ?

P.S. Can we keep the politics out of this thread thanks. :rolleyes:
 
How is it that you are hearing from NBN staff this closely? Do you want to stop the charade and come clean? I am more than happy for you to come out onto the flat and have an open discussion about this marvelous technology that is unfolding before us at taxpayers expense.

Man, you are paranoid! There's nothing close about it. I've seen videos of several interviews with Quigley etc where he has referred to the network actually being lots of little networks. Unfortunately I can't find a link to one now. I'll keep looking and post it when I find one.

Hencewhy my stand is to ask WHY is it being rolled out in the high risk/cost/implematation/manpower/income etc in the first place????????

Well DUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHH .......... ya think??????? Would it not have been better to place it in a density area that the "networks" could have evolved??????? HELLO???

To say it went into Tassie FIRST to test the technology is a CROCK OF ****. :banghead:

I don't know why Tassie in particular, but I can give some reasons why I think it hasn't specifically gone into cities first:

Technical reasons:
Cities currently have the best services and the most competition. Therefore the incremental benefit for many city people is less than for areas outside the cities. Personally, I think that areas with cable internet should be the last areas to have the NBN.

Following on from that, I doubt takeup will be any better in city areas than regional areas. Of the 5 mainland 1st release sites, the highest connection rates were in the regional sites of Armidale and Willunga (~90%), while the lowest takeup was in the city site of Brunswick (~60%).

If you're testing the rollout and operation of a network it's much easier to do the initial stuff in areas with lower density.

Political reasons:
There was an agreement with Oakeshott and Windsor to prioritise regional Australia in the rollout.

The NBN would be politically much harder to stop by a future Coalition govt if rolled out using an outside-in model. ie, lets say they did all the cities first, and by 2013 most of the metro areas were done, then the coalition got in to power. Pretty easy to stop it politically in that case. Cities have always had better services, so those outside the city would just have to put up with the inferior services and higher prices again.

BUT... If in 2013, you have 100 rural/regional centres and selected city suburbs that have fibre, and all can get speeds of 1Gbps for the same price, it makes it pretty hard for the coalition to say "we're stopping now and scaling back to 25Mbps fibre to the node" for the remaining areas, including big chunks of metropolitan Australia. Can you imagine trying to explain to voters that they can get 1000Mbps in Toowoomba, but only 25Mbps in Brisbane?
 
They don't get sat or wireless free. They get it at a standardised price, same for as the fibre connections where available.
 
Man, you are paranoid! There's nothing close about it. I've seen videos of several interviews with Quigley etc where he has referred to the network actually being lots of little networks. Unfortunately I can't find a link to one now. I'll keep looking and post it when I find one.



I don't know why Tassie in particular, but I can give some reasons why I think it hasn't specifically gone into cities first:

Technical reasons:
Cities currently have the best services and the most competition. Therefore the incremental benefit for many city people is less than for areas outside the cities. Personally, I think that areas with cable internet should be the last areas to have the NBN.

Following on from that, I doubt takeup will be any better in city areas than regional areas. Of the 5 mainland 1st release sites, the highest connection rates were in the regional sites of Armidale and Willunga (~90%), while the lowest takeup was in the city site of Brunswick (~60%).

If you're testing the rollout and operation of a network it's much easier to do the initial stuff in areas with lower density.

Political reasons:
There was an agreement with Oakeshott and Windsor to prioritise regional Australia in the rollout.

The NBN would be politically much harder to stop by a future Coalition govt if rolled out using an outside-in model. ie, lets say they did all the cities first, and by 2013 most of the metro areas were done, then the coalition got in to power. Pretty easy to stop it politically in that case. Cities have always had better services, so those outside the city would just have to put up with the inferior services and higher prices again.

BUT... If in 2013, you have 100 rural/regional centres and selected city suburbs that have fibre, and all can get speeds of 1Gbps for the same price, it makes it pretty hard for the coalition to say "we're stopping now and scaling back to 25Mbps fibre to the node" for the remaining areas, including big chunks of metropolitan Australia. Can you imagine trying to explain to voters that they can get 1000Mbps in Toowoomba, but only 25Mbps in Brisbane?

The takeup rates have absolutely no bearing on how many will sign up for the service.
As has been shown with the Tasmanian towns of Scottsdale, Smithton and Midway point. There was a reasonably high take up rate but a very poor sign up rate for services.
Not unlike what happened with Foxtel when they rolled out fibre in the early days. If you signed up for a month they connected you free.
I installed it in the early days, had it for the month, gave the box back and never had it since. Actually Foxtel is available to 70% of Australian homes and it has huge problems with takeup rates.
Your talk off expected takeup of connections due to access to increased speed could be chalenged also. If we take the case of existing landline connections, they are much faster than wireless, however customers are leaving in droves for the flexibility of wireless.
You can put lipstick on the pig, but it is still a pig and one that is going to cost us dearly.
 
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