NBN Rollout Scrapped

Smurf1976 · 13 January 2014

A relatively small number of power stations can be maintained and equipment replaced at end of life etc. If the electronics last (say) 20 years then just replace the electronics after 20 years - relatively straightforward. That plus I'd assume that the power stations are designed and set out with respect to their location - if it's 60 degrees inside then everything would have been designed with that operating temperature in mind.

But it's very different with a 5 figure number of boxes spread across the country and everything mass produced with no account of local conditions. The box that goes in a highlands region of NSW, Vic or Tas which gets regular snow will probably be the exact same box that gets installed in the outback where high temperatures are very common. Maybe they will, but I doubt very much that they'll produce different cabinets according to the installation location.

I don't doubt at all that it is possible to build this system with a large number of cabinets outside and to make it all work. In a technical sense I don't doubt that at all - it's certainly possible to do it. What I doubt is that, given the overall nature of this project, it will actually be done in a robust manner that is reliable.

Part of it comes down to how politically driven NBN Co ends up. If it's a stand alone entity with no day to day influence from government then quite likely it will do things properly. But "stand alone" means just that - government might have final sign off for major investment but it doesn't make decisions at the technical level or regarding day to day operations. I very much doubt that NBN Co will have this sort of independence.

But if it's under heavy political influence then expect the maintenance budget to be practically zero until things actually fall in a heap since politicians generally don't allocate funds for future maintenance of anything. Fast forward a few years and in the hotter parts of the country you've got a lot of cabinets full of worn out electronics and no money set aside, or physical resources available, for replacement. That's when it gets interesting.

As I said, I don't doubt that it could be done. It's what they'll actually do that has me concerned. It's a complex technical project being heavily influenced by non-technical people and that usually ends badly.

sptrawler · 14 January 2014

Smurf1976 said:
A relatively small number of power stations can be maintained and equipment replaced at end of life etc. If the electronics last (say) 20 years then just replace the electronics after 20 years - relatively straightforward. That plus I'd assume that the power stations are designed and set out with respect to their location - if it's 60 degrees inside then everything would have been designed with that operating temperature in mind.

But it's very different with a 5 figure number of boxes spread across the country and everything mass produced with no account of local conditions. The box that goes in a highlands region of NSW, Vic or Tas which gets regular snow will probably be the exact same box that gets installed in the outback where high temperatures are very common. Maybe they will, but I doubt very much that they'll produce different cabinets according to the installation location.

I don't doubt at all that it is possible to build this system with a large number of cabinets outside and to make it all work. In a technical sense I don't doubt that at all - it's certainly possible to do it. What I doubt is that, given the overall nature of this project, it will actually be done in a robust manner that is reliable.

Part of it comes down to how politically driven NBN Co ends up. If it's a stand alone entity with no day to day influence from government then quite likely it will do things properly. But "stand alone" means just that - government might have final sign off for major investment but it doesn't make decisions at the technical level or regarding day to day operations. I very much doubt that NBN Co will have this sort of independence.

But if it's under heavy political influence then expect the maintenance budget to be practically zero until things actually fall in a heap since politicians generally don't allocate funds for future maintenance of anything. Fast forward a few years and in the hotter parts of the country you've got a lot of cabinets full of worn out electronics and no money set aside, or physical resources available, for replacement. That's when it gets interesting.

As I said, I don't doubt that it could be done. It's what they'll actually do that has me concerned. It's a complex technical project being heavily influenced by non-technical people and that usually ends badly.

I doubt the NBN cabinets will be tin boxes, one would expect IF the government proceeded with cabinets they would be insulated and vented for natural circulation or forced circulation.
I was only trying to highlight the fallacy of some, who would try and use heat as an excuse.

Also I defer back to my own position, it is a crock of manure and should only be supplied to those who require it" at this time".

sydboy007 · 14 January 2014

sptrawler said:
I doubt the NBN cabinets will be tin boxes, one would expect IF the government proceeded with cabinets they would be insulated and vented for natural circulation or forced circulation.
I was only trying to highlight the fallacy of some, who would try and use heat as an excuse.

Also I defer back to my own position, it is a crock of manure and should only be supplied to those who require it" at this time".

As Smurf highlighted before, even if you rely on passive cooling you're going to need some way to clean the air being moved through the cabinet, otherwise you'll end up with a node full of the local environment in no time. Have a look inside a PC at work to see what happens when you have no filters but rely on the outside air for cooling. If you're lucky enough to be in a tiled area then things aint too bad, but once there's carpet around it's amazing how much of it ends up inside the PCs.

The other issue is that equipment made for a power station is going to be built to a lot higher specification than for a fridge node. Most of the equipment I can see that is currently available is designed for a max temp of 65 degrees. That means it's quite likely to have issues when the ambient temperature outside is above 35 degrees. With a lot of the nodes beign placed where the heat island effect will be quite high, it's easy to see that the equipment inside the nodes will face plenty of time in the upper range for their operational temperature.

Another difference between temperatures inside a power station and a node cabinet is the temperature changes will be much faster inside the node cabinet, and the changes will most likely occur more frequently due to the smaller size of the node. As I said before, electronic components suffering from repeated expansion and contraction due to temperature changes is likely to see an increase in failure of the equipment.

A GPON network is inherently more reliable than FTTN / HFC due to the much smaller amount of active components required. Not even the Earl of Wentworth tries to deny that

drsmith · 14 January 2014

sptrawler said:
I was only trying to highlight the fallacy of some, who would try and use heat as an excuse.

The ultimate aim of this is to reduce a complex mix of issues to a much narrower consideration of a single element.

sydboy007 said:
A GPON network is inherently more reliable than FTTN / HFC due to the much smaller amount of active components required. Not even the Earl of Wentworth tries to deny that

As Labor discovered in office, implementation is a much broader issue than what is the rolled gold technology.

drsmith · 14 January 2014

sydboy007 said:
As Smurf highlighted before, even if you rely on passive cooling you're going to need some way to clean the air being moved through the cabinet, otherwise you'll end up with a node full of the local environment in no time. Have a look inside a PC at work to see what happens when you have no filters but rely on the outside air for cooling. If you're lucky enough to be in a tiled area then things aint too bad, but once there's carpet around it's amazing how much of it ends up inside the PCs.

Where active ventilation is required to cope with extreme air temperatures, it's still only a small proportion of the year that it would be required. This is very much the case in coastal areas where the vast majority of our population lives.

sydboy007 said:
Another difference between temperatures inside a power station and a node cabinet is the temperature changes will be much faster inside the node cabinet, and the changes will most likely occur more frequently due to the smaller size of the node. As I said before, electronic components suffering from repeated expansion and contraction due to temperature changes is likely to see an increase in failure of the equipment

Lets not forget that the cabinet hardware linked in Myths's original post is built to higher environmental specifications than those units that would be housed inside a more environmentally controllable structure such as a building.

That's how this particular conversation started in the first place.

NBNMyths · 14 January 2014

drsmith said:
Have you considered how the internal components inside the typical desktop computer case are kept cool ?

Surely you're not serious with that analogy?

Tell you what….. Put your desktop computer in your car in the sun all day, then get in at about 4pm and see how it works.*

* I take no responsibility for any loss if you follow this suggestion.

IFocus · 14 January 2014

drsmith said:
Have you considered how the internal components inside the typical desktop computer case are kept cool ?

You should stick to squawking in the asylum seeker thread. That way you'll only be losing one argument at a time.

I will count that as a bite, hook line and sinker.

60 degrees C will kill most PC's but really not a worthy comparison as they are spec-ed totally differently than any field based equipment.

Smurf1976 · 14 January 2014

Here's some real data for a real outdoor cabinet with electronics inside.

Temperature inside cabinet this afternoon = 53 degrees as measured by internal thermometer (not calibrated but would be reasonably accurate within a degree or two).

Temperature outside cabinet at nearest Bureau of Meteorology monitoring site = 39 degrees.

There was no significant internal heat generation inside the cabinet at the time, it would have had an electrical load of a few watts, so the 14 degree difference was almost entirely due to direct heating from the sun.

Cabinet has natural ventilation only (no fans or other powered cooling). Location is the Derwent Valley (inland Tasmania).

I'll leave it to those who know more than me about the actual NBN equipment to comment further but if the same cabinet were somewhere in Vic or SA today then it would likely have reached about 60 degrees inside given the higher ambient temperature.

Obviously this isn't hurting the equipment inside the cabinet (otherwise it would have been built differently) but if it was getting that hot regularly then it would certainly reduce the lifespan. Not really an issue in Tas but it would be in places that get regular high temperatures. It won't kill anything there and then, but higher temperatures do wear electronics out faster as a general principle.

I'm pretty confident that it could be made to work as per my previous post. It's whether or not they'll actually build it to be a durable piece of infrastructure that concerns me. This whole project seems to be too focused on politics rather than sound engineering.

sptrawler · 14 January 2014

Smurf1976 said:
Here's some real data for a real outdoor cabinet with electronics inside.

Temperature inside cabinet this afternoon = 53 degrees as measured by internal thermometer (not calibrated but would be reasonably accurate within a degree or two).

Temperature outside cabinet at nearest Bureau of Meteorology monitoring site = 39 degrees.

There was no significant internal heat generation inside the cabinet at the time, it would have had an electrical load of a few watts, so the 14 degree difference was almost entirely due to direct heating from the sun.

Cabinet has natural ventilation only (no fans or other powered cooling). Location is the Derwent Valley (inland Tasmania).

I'll leave it to those who know more than me about the actual NBN equipment to comment further but if the same cabinet were somewhere in Vic or SA today then it would likely have reached about 60 degrees inside given the higher ambient temperature.

Obviously this isn't hurting the equipment inside the cabinet (otherwise it would have been built differently) but if it was getting that hot regularly then it would certainly reduce the lifespan. Not really an issue in Tas but it would be in places that get regular high temperatures. It won't kill anything there and then, but higher temperatures do wear electronics out faster as a general principle.

I'm pretty confident that it could be made to work as per my previous post. It's whether or not they'll actually build it to be a durable piece of infrastructure that concerns me. This whole project seems to be too focused on politics rather than sound engineering.

Hopefully the project is scaled back to a manageable size and cost effective high volume users recieve the service first.
Then at least it will start paying its way earlier, IMO heat in panels is the least of their worries, at this point in time.

drsmith · 14 January 2014

NBNMyths said:
Surely you're not serious with that analogy?

Tell you what….. Put your desktop computer in your car in the sun all day, then get in at about 4pm and see how it works.*

* I take no responsibility for any loss if you follow this suggestion.

IFocus said:
I will count that as a bite, hook line and sinker.

60 degrees C will kill most PC's but really not a worthy comparison as they are spec-ed totally differently than any field based equipment.

In singing from similar hymn books, you've both managed to miss the point and Myths,
not taking responsibility for your actions is the Labor way.

drsmith · 14 January 2014

Smurf1976 said:
I'm pretty confident that it could be made to work as per my previous post. It's whether or not they'll actually build it to be a durable piece of infrastructure that concerns me. This whole project seems to be too focused on politics rather than sound engineering.

Being based on politics was the fundamental problem with Labor's project.

The extent to which it is with the Coalition's version remains to be seen. If they don't get the physical aspects right in the context of their underlying principals then they will obviously be little better than Labor.

The greatest encouragement I get from the Coalition is not FTTN as an ideological position, but the appointment of the likes of Simon Hackett to the board. That shows they're prepared to be flexible about detail of their build which unfortunately was lacking in Labor's model. It will be interesting to see what comes out in the NBN Co 2014 corporate plan. While the recent Strategic review outlines the relative merits of each of the options and favour the multi-technology approach, the precise detail I suspect is still yet very much to be determined.

sptrawler · 14 January 2014

drsmith said:
Being based on politics was the fundamental problem with Labor's project.

The extent to which it is with the Coalition's version remains to be seen. If they don't get the physical aspects right in the context of their underlying principals then they will obviously be little better than Labor.

The greatest encouragement I get from the Coalition is not FTTN as an ideological position, but the appointment of the likes of Simon Hackett to the board. That shows they're prepared to be flexible about detail of their build which unfortunately was lacking in Labor's model. It will be interesting to see what comes out in the NBN Co 2014 corporate plan. While the recent Strategic review outlines the relative merits of each of the options and favour the multi-technology approach, the precise detail I suspect is still yet very much to be determined.

+1 doc.
I'm getting a bit fed up with speculation for speculations sake.
I'm getting a bit fed up with self appointed oracles, ordaining themselves geniuses.
Let's just sit back and see what is actually agreed upon.

It's a bit like the hype and slagging that was thrown at Abbott over the illegal asylum seekers. Let's just sit back and see how it pans out.

drsmith · 16 January 2014

Rollout update for the week to January 12

A big week for brownfields with close to 9000 passed. Individual weeks though can be lumpy and this has been very much so over the broader Xmas period.

A total of 9,685 additional lots/premises were passed/covered by the network during the week, of which 8,802 were in Brownfield and 907 were in Greenfield areas. Fixed wireless coverage decreased by 24 premises due to premise count reviews. During the week an additional 2,814 premises had services activated on the network, including 2,278 on fixed line services and 536 using satellite and fixed wireless technologies.

Total brownfields passed is now 281,976. The Strategic Review estimates 357,000 brownfields will be passed by June 30 2014.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/about-us/weekly-progress-report.html

sydboy007 · 16 January 2014

Poor Telstra exchange at South Morang VIC is having trouble coping with the 41+ outside temperature.

Our equipment isn't too happy with a 53C intake temp. Some of the chips are report 78C operating temps. Supposedly the equipment can cope with up to the high 80s before likely to shut down to protect itself from damage, but I'd hate to be running it this hot for weeks / months at a time.

Note this is in a building that has aircon, it's just not coping with the heatwave being experienced in Melbourne.

Ashfield in Sydney isn't much better, with our equipment hitting 55C even though the outside temp is only 28C.

Darwin was hitting 55C for our equipment at 5am.

I'd hate to think what a passively / fan only cooled node would be like today. Certainly don't like the idea of lead acid back up batteries being subjected to those kinds of temperatures.

drsmith · 16 January 2014

sydboy007 said:
Darwin was hitting 55C for our equipment at 5am.

Darwin is in the tropics and has been for some time.

Darwin also doesn't get the extremes of temperatures we see in southern Australia.

So_Cynical · 16 January 2014

sptrawler said:
+1 doc.
I'm getting a bit fed up with speculation for speculations sake.
I'm getting a bit fed up with self appointed oracles, ordaining themselves geniuses.
Let's just sit back and see what is actually agreed upon.

It's a bit like the hype and slagging that was thrown at Abbott over the illegal asylum seekers. Let's just sit back and see how it pans out.

Phenomenal..its panning out as a half arsed dogs breakfast, national infrastructure based on "wait and see how it pans out" The noalition and its supporters at their brilliant best.

medicowallet · 16 January 2014

sydboy007 said:
Poor Telstra exchange at South Morang VIC is having trouble coping with the 41+ outside temperature.

I wonder how the same equipment fared in 1908? I guess back then whoever designed the equipment had considered the possibility of such "extreme" weather events.

MW

NBNMyths · 16 January 2014

medicowallet said:
I wonder how the same equipment fared in 1908? I guess back then whoever designed the equipment had considered the possibility of such "extreme" weather events.

MW

In 1908, the "equipment" consisted of copper or iron wires switched manually.

Pretty sure there were no VDSL2 DSLAMs back then, equipped with sensitive microprocessors generating large amounts of their own heat as they transmit and convert data between mediums.

No-one is saying that FTTN nodes can't be designed/constructed to cope with extreme weather. It's the cost of doing so that is the issue, both initial and ongoing.

NBNMyths · 16 January 2014

drsmith said:
Darwin is in the tropics and has been for some time.

Darwin also doesn't get the extremes of temperatures we see in southern Australia.

No. It only varies between hot and wet and very hot and very wet.

Can't wait to see how a FTTN street node without active environmental management copes with 38 degrees ambient and 99% RH.

sydboy007 · 17 January 2014

medicowallet said:
I wonder how the same equipment fared in 1908? I guess back then whoever designed the equipment had considered the possibility of such "extreme" weather events.

MW

MW

things have moved on from the last time you saw one of those new fangled electronic calculator thingamajigs. The sheer density of circuits in current technology means they run hot. They generate a LOT of heat, which was the point I was trying to make is that equipment in a decent sized building where the aircon starts to fail or can't remove the heat fast enough due to high outside ambient temperatures can see the temperatures of the electronic components rise to extreme levels very quickly.

Running electronic equipment at the top end of their temperature ranges for extended periods of time will shorten their economic life and increase failure rates. Factor in most nodes will have backup batteries and I'm not sure how well lead acid batteries will do in an environment where they can be heated to 55-60 degrees fairly easily.

Typically the rating for lead acid batteries is based on an ambient temperature of 25C. For every 8C above ambient during use, the life of the battery will be reduced by 50%. Ideally batteries should be operated at 25C or less. - See more at: http://myelectrical.com/notes/entryid/116/effect-of-temperature-on-lead-batteries

It's quite likely there will be 200-300 thousand backup batteries in use in the MTM network. It will be a maintenance nightmare, and certainly not factored into the cost of the network since the focus has been purely on CAPEX and not enough attention on OPEX over a 10 year time frame. I've seen what can happen at Telstra exchanges when the UPS is not properly maintained, and the batteries in a node are even more likely to not be properly maintained.

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