NBN Rollout Scrapped

sydboy007 · 15 September 2013

drsmith said:
Myths might be able to further the discussion on the more technical aspects of your post, but a couple of quick questions do come to mind.

What proportion of the fixed line component is planned to be FTTP under the Coalition's plan ?

How long ago was that tender ?

I don't think the coalition has actually specified a %. Don't seem to remember one in their "policy" document.

The Optus tender was when the ALP was looking to deliver an FTTN and Telstra under Sol decided to put in a late bid - so around 2008-2009

xDSL speed is inverse to cable length, so if Optus thought they'd need over 78000 nodes to do just 12Mbs, the number to get say 75% of households (7% wireless / satellite with 22% FTTP) to a minimum of 25Mbs is going to be a LOT more than 50000 which is all MT is budgeting for. Once you want to bump the speed up to 50Mbs, well 90K worth of nodes is probably on the low side of what will be required. I eagerly await the NoBN business plan and the details hidden within.

Anyone who thinks the new xDSL standards have somehow magically extended the reach need to take Darryl Kerrigan to heart because they're dreaming. The higher the frequency the faster the signal degrades. Those wonderful 100Mbs+ speeds MT was talking about are viable over <200M of copper.

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Calliope said:
How about a link to this "interesting post". It always helps to know the origin, and thus the bias, of an "interesting post".

If you think the information I posted is false / wrong you're welcome to do your own research and refute it.

drsmith · 15 September 2013

Calliope said:
How about a link to this "interesting post". It always helps to know the origin, and thus the bias, of an "interesting post".

It's from this bloke.

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/09/12/...p-petitioners-youve-democracy/#comment-623825

http://michaelwyres.com/

NBNMyths · 15 September 2013

Calliope said:
At last, a professional may head the NBN Co.

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...itkowski-for-nbn/story-e6frfku9-1226715836171

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/09/12/ziggy-switkowski-shouldnt-appointed-run-nbn-co/

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sails said:
We are on bigpond cable (no NBN) - download speeds are great but upload is pathetic! Can't see why we need NBN when we can get these download speeds.

Three reasons:

1. Only about 20% of the country can get cable.

2. Cable is a shared medium, so if everyone in the area were on it (instead of being shared between Telstra HFC, Optus HFC and ADSL2), then speeds would plummet.

3. Cable upload speeds are pathetic (as you said), compared to fibre.

drsmith · 15 September 2013

sydboy007 said:
The NBN – (in whatever form it takes) – is meant to cover about 12,700,000 premises – with about 900,000 covered by wireless and satellite.

So, the 93% that remains – (about 11,800,000 premises) – would need to be split into chunks of approximately 300 premises on average, to save the construction of new ducting.

In rough terms, this is about 39,370 nodes. Sounds like a relatively small number, but it’s not that simple.

drsmith said:
What proportion of the fixed line component is planned to be FTTP under the Coalition's plan ?

sydboy007 said:
I don't think the coalition has actually specified a %. Don't seem to remember one in their "policy" document.

http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/assets/Coalition_NBN_policy_-_Background_Paper.pdf

Page 30,

THE COALITION NBN AT FINISH OF ROLLOUT IN 2019
Fibre to the Premises (FTTP): 2,802,000 22%
Fibre to the Node (FTTN): 8,968,000 71%
Fixed Wireless: 572,000 4%
Satellite: 372,000 3%
TOTAL PREMISES 12,712,000: 100%

NBNMyths · 15 September 2013

medicowallet said:
I think in 6-7 hours, some prominent posters in this thread will be feeling a little sore.

Oh well, time then to change focus (partially rightly so) to bashing the coalition's policy as opposed to defending the poorly developed and delivered Greens/Labor policy.

MW

Indeed. The online petition asking the Libs to retain FTTP in lieu of obsolete FTTN has already become the largest online petition in Australia's history. By a very large margin. After less than a week, it's doubled the previous best and is on its way to becoming the largest petition (of any kind) ever seen in Australia.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/09/11/12/08/one-name-every-3-5-sec-on-nbn-petition

Of course, despite promoting several online petitions himself, Turnbull is complaining that this one is "undemocratic"!

http://www.sortius-is-a-geek.com/hypocrisy-thy-name-mal/

Calliope · 15 September 2013

drsmith said:
It's from this bloke.

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/09/12/...p-petitioners-youve-democracy/#comment-623825

http://michaelwyres.com/

Ah. It's not surprising that Sydboy was reluctant to supply a link to such a biased source. Myths has no such compunctions however.

NBNMyths · 15 September 2013

Calliope said:
Ah. It's not surprising that Sydboy was reluctant to supply a link to such a biased source. Myths has no such compunctions however.

Ummm. Michael Wyres is the commenter, not delimiter.

Renai LeMay writes delimiter, and (as has been pointed out to you before) has criticised and praised both the Labor and Coalition versions of the NBN, and Turnbull and Conroy (and Albo) personally at various times.

Michael Wyres is an IT professional. You know, those pesky people who are the experts on IT/Comms technology, and almost unanimously support an FTTP NBN.

It must be somewhat difficult to support a policy which has such a small support base amongst people who actually have some expertise on the topic at hand. But I guess as coalition supporters, you're used to being in that position....

drsmith · 15 September 2013

NBNMyths said:
Michael Wyres is an IT professional.

What about his numbers ?

Calliope · 15 September 2013

NBNMyths said:
It must be somewhat difficult to support a policy which has such a small support base amongst people who actually have some expertise on the topic at hand. But I guess as coalition supporters, you're used to being in that position....

More of your sarcasm.:shake: As I've told you before, unlike you, I have no vested interest in this debate. I get some amusement however, out of people like you who are still in denial over the election result, continually harping over what might have been; even though every indication is that it is a complete stuff-up. Another expensive mess for the Abbott government to clean up. To use one of sydboy's quaint phrases you will just have to "suck it up".

Michael Wyres is an IT professional. You know, those pesky people who are the experts on IT/Comms technology, and almost unanimously support an FTTP NBN.

Yeah, I know ...like you and syd.

Garpal Gumnut · 16 September 2013

As I alluded to the NBN at the beginning of this thread.

It is gorne.

Too expensive.

Too rolled out to the elites.

Too capable of being superceded by new technology.

Unaffordable

It is gorne.

gg

drsmith · 16 September 2013

The reality and the dream,

NBN Co warned the Labor government of a $1.6 billion increase in the funding needed to build the national broadband network in the weeks leading to the election, after construction delays and weaker-than-expected revenue forecasts hit the project.

But in the final forecasts from the company before Labor lost the election on September 7, NBN Co maintained it would finish the network as expected in 2021, at the same capital expenditure budget of $37.4 billion.

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/nbn_warns_it_needs_another_bn_EUi3gqMalLyYXmUMP06MVL

sydboy007 · 16 September 2013

Garpal Gumnut said:
As I alluded to the NBN at the beginning of this thread.

It is gorne.

Too expensive.

Too rolled out to the elites.

Too capable of being superceded by new technology.

Unaffordable

It is gorne.

gg

Just to humour me, what new technology will economically replace fibre in the future, and when?

Considering the current NBN will easily support 1Gbs and long before the rollout is complete it will be able to achieve 10Gbs with a small outlay of CAPEX (that can be done as demand required), it seems the next 20+ years of demand increases are easily catered for.

By 2019 it is likely Australians will be downloading around 8 times the amount of content as they currently do, and I dare say the growth in uploads would be just as high due to the ever increasing levels of content creation, and hopefully people finally starting to backup their digital treasures online.

As for being rolled out to the elites, if Tasmania, Kiama, Wilunga, Armidale and the rest are Elites in this country, then what does that make Toorak, Double Bay, New Farm, North Adelaide, Peppermint Grove?

sydboy007 · 16 September 2013

Calliope said:
Ah. It's not surprising that Sydboy was reluctant to supply a link to such a biased source. Myths has no such compunctions however.

The beauty of most of the arguments about the NBN is they are based on the laws of physics. The entire wireless spectrum doesn't even have the same capacity as a single strand of fibre. Wireless is really handy for low speed distributed services, but that's about it.

There's no point me posting misinformation because it's easily refuted.

So if you think the biased information I've provided is wrong, then please show an alternative information source that shows I'm incorrect.

Just because I don't agree with your view doesn't make me wrong.

The Optus bid was public knowledge years ago. I wish I'd been aware of the node figures before the election as it would have made a great attack on the Coalition policy. Show's how pathetically managed the ALP election team was run when they missed this information.

So the question remains, how MT thinks he's going to be able to use only 2/3 the number of nodes that Optus felt would be required, yet he expects to be able to eventually provide over 4 times the speed.

--------------------

another biased source that shows the Coalition FTTN is going to experience some cost blowouts.

http://stevej-on-nbn.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/nbn-black-holes-in-coalition-fttn-plan.html

Maybe Tony will apply the same limits on the FTTN as he has with DA. IF the money budgeted wont achieve the target, then the target is reduced. Who are the lucky ones to miss out on a broadband upgrade under that scenario>>

NBNMyths · 16 September 2013

Calliope said:
More of your sarcasm.:shake: As I've told you before, unlike you, I have no vested interest in this debate. I get some amusement however, out of people like you who are still in denial over the election result, continually harping over what might have been; even though every indication is that it is a complete stuff-up. Another expensive mess for the Abbott government to clean up. To use one of sydboy's quaint phrases you will just have to "suck it up".

Yeah, I know ...like you and syd.

The only vested interest I have in the NBN is the future of the country and my children. Selfish, I know.

Yes, I am annoyed by "what might have been". But I can also almost guarantee that it will still happen one day. We, as a country, will miss an opportunity now that will hurt us for generations to come.

My only comfort is that (unlike the embarrassing conservative arguments surrounding the old copper network, the Snowy Scheme, the Sydney Opera House and assorted social reforms), when it comes to the NBN I'm confident I won't be looked back on by future generations as a backward imbecile, thanks to the NLA Trove archiving my blog.

Knobby22 · 16 September 2013

My bet is that the NBN will still be effectively rolled out but only in newer suburbs where the conduiting and cabling is new and in rich inner suburbs where people will willingly pay for it.

NBNMyths · 16 September 2013

Garpal Gumnut said:
As I alluded to the NBN at the beginning of this thread.

It is gorne.

You're hilarious gg.

You "alluded" that the ALP was going to cancel the NBN, not a change in Government. I hardly think you can claim you were correct, given that the Coalition have opposed the NBN since day 1!

Too expensive.

Unaffordable

Not as expensive as it will be to do obsolete FTTN now, then rip it all out and do it right in 10 years' time.

Too rolled out to the elites.

Rolled out to the elites?? What a bizarre comment.

Yep, plenty of elites living in Blacktown, Riverstone, Willunga etc etc. It's been rolled out to every demographic, from every political persuasion.

Too capable of being superceded by new technology.

Now I know you're off your tree.

You're criticising potential obsolescence of optical fibre, which can (right now) manage speeds of 1000Mbps to the home, and will easily do 10,000 in 5 years and 100,000 in 15 years, with very minor electronics upgrades.

...while applauding the Coalition's barely-cheaper alternative, which will do maybe 25Mbps now, and maybe 100Mbps in a few years, if the research pans out and the copper is good enough.

Seriously?

It is gorne.

Yes, it probably is. Until of course the tech generation outnumber the old farts at the polling booth.

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drsmith said:
The reality and the dream,

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/nbn_warns_it_needs_another_bn_EUi3gqMalLyYXmUMP06MVL

Without seeing the document, it's impossible to know whether the $1.6bn could be contained within the contingency fund, or is in addition to it.

Either way, it's a far cry from the Coalition's forecast of a peak of $94bn.

Calliope · 16 September 2013

sydboy007 said:
There's no point me posting misinformation because it's easily refuted.

Then why refuse to post a link?

So if you think the biased information I've provided is wrong, then please show an alternative information source that shows I'm incorrect.

I know it is difficult to be objective while in denial.

Just because I don't agree with your view doesn't make me wrong.

I think the only view I have expressed is that I trust Turnbull, while you still trust the superior broadband expertise of Rudd/Conroy. It's a political thing rather than an objective view.

Knobby says;

My bet is that the NBN will still be effectively rolled out but only in newer suburbs where the conduiting and cabling is new and in rich inner suburbs where people will willingly pay for it.

You are right. It's a bit like whether you buy a BMW or a Corolla. Most people get along fine with their Corolla.

sydboy007 · 16 September 2013

Calliope said:
Then why refuse to post a link?

I know it is difficult to be objective while in denial.

I think the only view I have expressed is that I trust Turnbull, while you still trust the superior broadband expertise of Rudd/Conroy. It's a political thing rather than an objective view.

Knobby says;

You are right. It's a bit like whether you buy a BMW or a Corolla. Most people get along fine with their Corolla.

Just for interest sake, in 3 years time, what would you consider to be a successful rollout of the FTTN by MT.

What benchmarks / KPIs do you consider to be the measure of success?

For me there's pretty much just 2:

* All premises able to access a minimum of 25Mbs (hopefully MT will not fudge this by arguing that anyone in a cable serviced area already has this as it's not available to those in MDUs so over half the residents in those areas DON'T have access to the minimum speed)

* Broadband costs are no more than current plans since current NBN plans are comparable to the cost of ADSL2+ plans

Secondary to this will be:

* Current CAPEX against the full $29.4B rollout forecast and how that is mapping to being within the overall budget.

* Current OPEX of the FTTN and how that compares to the OPEX of the FTTP - this will be VERY interesting as it will give us an idea of how fast the (forecast) CAPEX will be eaten up by the higher OPEX.

NBNMyths · 16 September 2013

And the FTTN shambles begins:
http://www.theage.com.au/technology...ate-of-wiring-for-the-nbn-20130915-2tswo.html

Turnbull wants 'his' department to provide a cost to change to a technology based on an old network they know nothing about, and have no right to ask, within 60 days.

He also wants an accurate audit of the condition and speed available over 10 million copper lines of a network they don't own, have no right to access, and have no facility to test, within 90 days.

Tell 'im he's dreamin'.

Calliope · 16 September 2013

sydboy007 said:
Just for interest sake, in 3 years time, what would you consider to be a successful rollout of the FTTN by MT.
What benchmarks / KPIs do you consider to be the measure of success?

It's not something I lose any sleep over...I am not in denial.

NBN Rollout Scrapped

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