NBN Rollout Scrapped

[Smurf1976]

NBN costs set to soar past $60bn

As I've said before, the solution is an "in house" construction workforce working alongside, and competing against, the contractors.

That's the only way I know that keeps a lid on costs over the long term. Otherwise, the contractors gradually ramp up the prices to just under the critical pain point - they'll charge as much as they can. Been there, played this game and it's the inevitable consequence on such a project when the organisation running it doesn't have any experience of its' own - hence the need to get some and do so promptly.

 

[NBNMyths]

NBN costs set to soar past $60bn

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...o-soar-past-60bn/story-e6frgaif-1226684023561

Oh look, an article by Annabel Hepworth in the Australian. Ridiculed for her (their) inaccuracy in NBN reporting at the best of times.

But now we have quotes from a mysterious "industry source" and a dash of Henry Ergas, Ian Martin and Kevin Morgan as well. Seems all of the Australian's exclusive NBN-critic ducks have made an appearance! I wonder why no other publications (particularly industry publications) seem to give them any credence on the topic of the NBN, yet they are The Australian's go-to men for any NBN information?


Anyway, let's look at some of the "arguments".

First, the supposed cost blowout to $60-70bn, based on contractors wanting 20-40% increases.

The NBN capex is forecast to be $37bn. Of that $37bn, only about $22bn is the actual FTTP rollout. The rest is the transit network, the wireless portion, the satellite portion etc. And only a part of that $22bn is actual contractor costs. The rest is the costs of buying the hardware, fibre cable etc.

NBN argue that they are currently on (or under) budget: http://www.nbnco.com.au/assets/media-releases/2013/report-to-parliamentary-joint-committee.pdf


Anyway, a blowout to $60-70bn means that the FTTP construction cost would need to increase by 200-300% more than forecast by KPMG-McKinsey, NBN Co, and the cost of similar projects in similar countries overseas.

Yet, this "$60-70bn blowout" argument is based on the premise that contractors are asking for increases of 20-40%. Even if, for argument's sake, we accept that they want and will receive an increase of 40%, that would only increase the cost of the NBN to maybe $44bn (40% on the ~$15bn FTTP contracts).


Next, let's look at Ian Martin's claim that NBN Co's revenue would not meet expectations. He cites no evidence or reasoning to support this here, but has written elsewhere that the reason is because he doubts NBN Co's assumption that there will be sufficient takeup of higher NBN plans (eg 50-100Mbps).

Yet NBN Co are already achieving a >30% breakdown on 100Mbps plans, which is not forecast to occur until 2020, and the overall takeup rate is "soaring". I cannot begin to fathom how he can assume NBN Co can't achieve by 2020 what they are already achieving, especially with the demand for speed constantly increasing, and volume showing no sign of deviating from the >50%pa growth trend.

 

[sydboy007]

from zdnet today

Last week, 2GB radio host and fierce critic of the Australian government's AU$37.4 billion National Broadband Network (NBN) Ray Hadley claimed to have discovered pictures of an exposed NBN cable on the Minnamurra Bridge on the South Coast of New South Wales ”” only it wasn't actually NBN Co's cable, but rather Telstra's temporary fix for a cable destroyed by rats.

Hadley put the now-removed pictures up on his website on Wednesday, and read out an email from a listener who claimed that it showed how NBN Co is "cutting corners" with the construction of the network.

"It is obviously the NBN cable," Hadley said.

NBN Co told ZDNet last week that the cable wasn't at all related to the NBN. Shortly after 2GB pulled down the photos, Telstra confirmed to ZDNet that it was a temporary cable installed after a rat chewed through fibre and spare dark fibres along the bridge.

"It turned out a rat chewed the cable that runs through the conduit ”” it's a pipe concreted into the bridge walls on the Minnamurra Bridge. The cable length from one site to the next is 1.9 kilometres. The cable feeds a mobile tower on the western side of the highway, which services thousands of customers," a Telstra spokesperson said.

"The rat unfortunately chewed through the working fibres and all the dark spare fibres. Given the number of customers affected, we made the call to run a temporary cable to restore service to the mobile tower."

The spokesperson said that the conduit that Telstra runs through the bridge is currently blocked, and the company sought permission from the Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA), which owns the bridge, and Kiama Council to trench new cable under the bridge and under Minnamurra Creek.

"Work is scheduled to start this week, with the bore under the river starting first. Vermin-proof cable is already onsite today," the spokesperson said on Wednesday. "The work is expected to be completed in approximately three weeks."

-------------------

reminds me of my previous job supporting a bank network where an ATM ar market cicy in Sydney had gone down again. We used to call it rat city since the atm had been taken of line 3 times before due to rats chewing thru the cable from the atm to the wall socket for the adsl connection.

For the 4th fault we updated the fault with info showing the cable had been chewed thru again and evidence of rat droppings. The bank had their "tech" attend who said no fault found and then said we hadn't sent a tech out as he couldn't find any evidence of rat droppings.

Inside the ATM is a standard phone the guards can use if they need to call - quite often no mobile reception near the atms as deep inside a shopping centre. IF he'd bothered to pick the phone up he'd have noticed he didn't have dial tone, hence no adsl connection either.

Our tech went back out, replaced the chewed thru cable. We then posted the offending cable thru to the banks atm moniroting team and asked them to decide on the cause of the issue

 

[medicowallet]

Election in the Wind

Goodbye NBN,
Though I never had you at all,
You have the pace to download pr0n,
While my ADSL crawls,
As Rudd and Conroy's love child,
Between them have half of a brain,
They set you up for failure,
and NBNMyth's change of name?

And it seems to me copper end of life,
Is not just around the bend,
I just hope it does not drop out,
when the rain sets in,
And I would have loved to know you,
But I am not a kid,
The money ran out long ago,
Socialism never did.

 

[Knobby22]

I heard today that Murdoch is really worried and has sent one of his best men from the US to ensure that the papers do better to attack Labor to stop it. Found this article.

Allan is a man widely known inside News Corp as Col Pot, a play on the name of the Cambodian genocidal dictator. He is News Corp's most feared flamethrower in a company of flamethrowers. He has been sent to Australia by Rupert Murdoch himself.

The purpose of his mission has become clear in recent days.

One person who should rightly be disconcerted by Allan's sudden secondment to Australia is the head of News Corp, Kim Williams. Several other executives should also be leery. But they are not Allan's primary target.

His primary target is Kevin Rudd.

Why Murdoch wants Rudd to lose the coming federal election is not merely political, it is commercial. News Corp hates the government's national broadband network. The company has formed a view that it poses a threat to the business model of by far its most important asset in Australia, the Foxtel cable TV monopoly it jointly owns with Telstra.

Murdoch has declared war on Rudd by dispatching his most trusted field general, Allan, whose reputation is built on his closeness to Murdoch and his long history of producing pungent front-page splashes and pugnacious campaigns as editor-in-chief of The Daily Telegraph and, for the past 12 years, The New York Post.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/mu...dd-over-nbn-20130803-2r6fk.html#ixzz2ayiYEtjU

 

[sails]

Knobby - I believe Col Pot is to counter Obama's spinmeisters who Rudd is importing to attack Abbott. It seems Rudd started this media war so now he needs to cop it on the chin, imo.

 

[moXJO]

I heard today that Murdoch is really worried and has sent one of his best men from the US to ensure that the papers do better to attack Labor to stop it. Found this article.

Allan is a man widely known inside News Corp as Col Pot, a play on the name of the Cambodian genocidal dictator. He is News Corp's most feared flamethrower in a company of flamethrowers. He has been sent to Australia by Rupert Murdoch himself.

The purpose of his mission has become clear in recent days.

One person who should rightly be disconcerted by Allan's sudden secondment to Australia is the head of News Corp, Kim Williams. Several other executives should also be leery. But they are not Allan's primary target.

His primary target is Kevin Rudd.

Why Murdoch wants Rudd to lose the coming federal election is not merely political, it is commercial. News Corp hates the government's national broadband network. The company has formed a view that it poses a threat to the business model of by far its most important asset in Australia, the Foxtel cable TV monopoly it jointly owns with Telstra.

Murdoch has declared war on Rudd by dispatching his most trusted field general, Allan, whose reputation is built on his closeness to Murdoch and his long history of producing pungent front-page splashes and pugnacious campaigns as editor-in-chief of The Daily Telegraph and, for the past 12 years, The New York Post.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/mu...dd-over-nbn-20130803-2r6fk.html#ixzz2ayiYEtjU

Having read some of the trash on fairfax I wouldn't put much credibility in that story. They are just as bad as news ltd when it comes to pushing political bs

 

[NBNMyths]

Knobby - I believe Col Pot is to counter Obama's spinmeisters who Rudd is importing to attack Abbott. It seems Rudd started this media war so now he needs to cop it on the chin, imo.

There's a difference between a political candidate employing a "spinmeister", and a news outlet doing so.

The media are supposed to objectively report the news. The Murdoch press abandoned that years ago, but the front page of the Tele today takes it to a whole new level. There's not even a pretence of objectivity any more! It's quite remarkable.

- - - Updated - - -

Election in the Wind

Goodbye NBN,
Though I never had you at all,
You have the pace to download pr0n,
While my ADSL crawls,
As Rudd and Conroy's love child,
Between them have half of a brain,
They set you up for failure,
and NBNMyth's change of name?

And it seems to me copper end of life,
Is not just around the bend,
I just hope it does not drop out,
when the rain sets in,
And I would have loved to know you,
But I am not a kid,
The money ran out long ago,
Socialism never did.

Don't give up your day job!

 

[Smurf1976]

There's a difference between a political candidate employing a "spinmeister", and a news outlet doing so.

The media are supposed to objectively report the news.

On that point we can certainly agree. The standard of reporting we have today is outright rubbish and the reason I won't even consider paying for such "news".

Take the media release and simply print it word for word. I've seen it time and time again - that's basically free advertising rather than reporting.

Even worse when the media simply prints its' own biased propaganda as seems to be happening these days.

 

[sydboy007]

On that point we can certainly agree. The standard of reporting we have today is outright rubbish and the reason I won't even consider paying for such "news".

Take the media release and simply print it word for word. I've seen it time and time again - that's basically free advertising rather than reporting.

Even worse when the media simply prints its' own biased propaganda as seems to be happening these days.

These days the various media entities have decided on their audience and pretty much report what their readers / listeners / viewers want.

Continually having your views affirmed is comforting. Just ask Fox News

 

[Calliope]

Continually having your views affirmed is comforting. Just ask Fox News

Well you still have the ABC affirming your views. That's a comfort for you.

 

[Macquack]

The media are supposed to objectively report the news. The Murdoch press abandoned that years ago, but the front page of the Tele today takes it to a whole new level. There's not even a pretence of objectivity any more! It's quite remarkable.

Yes, Murdoch is a disgrace to the human race. What he got away with at the "News of the World" was blatantly criminal.

I will not be "told" by some merchant who has sold his sole to the devil.

 

[moXJO]

These days the various media entities have decided on their audience and pretty much report what their readers / listeners / viewers want.

Continually having your views affirmed is comforting. Just ask Fox News

Agree with the above. Fairfax has been running anti lib stuff all day as well.
People also forget the back story with news and fairfax. A fairfax jorno wrote a book (killing fairfax) on the subject recently and fairfax canned the ad for the book and told her it ain't happening.
Like I said I wouldnt judge either as the height of integrity.

 

[sydboy007]

Agree with the above. Fairfax has been running anti lib stuff all day as well.
People also forget the back story with news and fairfax. A fairfax jorno wrote a book (killing fairfax) on the subject recently and fairfax canned the ad for the book and told her it ain't happening.
Like I said I wouldnt judge either as the height of integrity.

It's partly why I've started moving away from the MSM and have been reading a lot more small and independent sources of information. Dare I say Rupert is scared witless that reasonably fast broadband will allow the small players access to as big an audience as the major players now have. Google has made the opening shots via youtube and revenue sharing of advertising. Set up a successful channel on youtube and you can have a pretty decent revenue stream. You can even broadcast in HD.

 

[Calliope]

It's partly why I've started moving away from the MSM and have been reading a lot more small and independent sources of information.

Do you mean politically independent? Perhaps you could list for us some of these small and independent sources of information. It seems like an oxymoron to me.

 

[sydboy007]

Do you mean politically independent? Perhaps you could list for us some of these small and independent sources of information. It seems like an oxymoron to me.

macrobusiness and delimeter are two that come to mind.

 

[sydboy007]

Got to love the way Telstra abuses their market power.

My employer is waiting for Telstra to upgrade some links we have with them for the ADSL wholesale traffic we get from customers connecting via Telstra DSLAMs. Currently the project is on hold indefinitely till Telstra are able to provide the right NTU (Network Terminating Unit). One would think purchasing a new NTU shouldn't be a major issue for a company as large as Telstra.

On the one hand my company is offering to pay more for higher levels of bandwidth, but on the other hand forcing our customers to suffer increasing congestion must be a nice way to compete.

At least with the NBN it has a built in incentive to maximise revenues ie bandwidth upgrades are likely to occur as quickly as possible to get the increased revenue rolling in.

More and more of what I hear MT saying makes me fear he is going to do a quick and dirty with Telstra to build the FTTN and provide them with near total control of it. No FTTN network has been built by the non dominant carrier anywhere else in the world.

 

[Calliope]

macrobusiness and delimeter are two that come to mind.

Delimiter! Of course...they share your hatred of Murdoch, and the Coalition, and your love of the NBN Co.

http://delimiter2.com.au/lord-ruperts-not-at-war-with-the-nbn-its-democracy-he-has-a-problem-with/

 

[sydboy007]

Delimiter! Of course...they share your hatred of Murdoch, and the Coalition, and your love of the NBN Co.

http://delimiter2.com.au/lord-ruperts-not-at-war-with-the-nbn-its-democracy-he-has-a-problem-with/

You've obviously not really read much of Renais postings.

He's said a few times that he's voted Liberal more than Labor.

At least he's fairly objective about the NBN and has looked at it from a technical stand point.

For much of the last year he was still giving the Liberal FTTN a reasonable level of support, but as little new information has been released by the Coalition he's swung his support behind the current NBN.

If you bothered to read some of his articles you would see he's been quite critical of Labors handling of the NBN at times, but equally critical of the way the Coalition has behaved as well.

 

[Calliope]

You've obviously not really read much of Renais postings.

Nor shall I if they are all as nasty as that article, full of gratuitous insults.

…comment piece for the Age that Murdoch had sent a key executive, Col Allan (known as Col Pot after the Cambodian dictator) to Australia to take Kevin Rudd’s head and return it to the Great Lord in a little black carry bag. Such an image would usually be accompanied by a little side shot of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott simpering ingratiatingly.

Just spleen. Besides I can't see Rudd's boofhead fitting into a little black carry bag...a garbage bag would be more apt.