MYX - Mayne Pharma Group

[Faramir]

Any feedback please? I wish I chose Mayne Pharma for the tipping competition instead. It's up for grabs if anyone wants it. This time last year, everything looked horrible for Mayne Pharma. Now, I think things look better.
It may not close above 96 cents by the end of today. It did peak at 97 cents.
Your call anyone??

 

[Knobby22]

It's been doing well. Hard to call Farimer but I own.

 

[JTLP]

It's been doing well. Hard to call Farimer but I own.

I bought a little higher than this so pleased to see a turnaround. Not sure what’s driving it though, unless the price of generics has bottomed?

 

[tasmanian]

MYX seems to be coming off a nice basing pattern. Possibly forming another flag/box here. Could be the start of a new uptrend? Had some good volume lately also.

 

[JTLP]

MYX seems to be coming off a nice basing pattern. Possibly forming another flag/box here. Could be the start of a new uptrend? Had some good volume lately also.

Has tried and failed to stay above $1 though. Would be positive to see a close above this.

 

[galumay]

I think we will have to wait for the EOFY report to see any improvement in the SP, I expect the report will surprise to the positive and we should see the growth in SP come.

 

[luutzu]

The rise doesn't make sense.

It's priced on great expectation. Whether or not that will be delivered I don't know... but given its history, market mainly fungal and pimple products, generics... Maybe there's something in the pipeline the market knows well but still... at some $1.86B with sales of $530M. Pretty pricey.

That and declining revenue, EBITDA, margins... I guess the market like it because its H2 was better than its H1... but then its FY18 was worst than its FY17 so we're to ignore the yearly trend but take the half yearly (more favourable) trend??

I like this line:
"Operating Cashflow Before WC, interest and tax 139.7"

No need for working capital? No debt to pay interest? No taxman around?

But please don't take my word. I just look at the recent financials. With these drug companies, new fortune could, maybe, be around the corner.

If it ain't... it's going to get smashed. It's priced to be.

 

[galumay]

I expect the report will surprise to the positive and we should see the growth in SP come.

Seems that was the case, I think patient investors will be well rewarded in the long term. I bought too soon when it initially fell from grace, but well back in profit now.

I remember this was one of @ROE's high conviction holdings - and history shows he didnt get too many wrong!

 

[JTLP]

@joeblow - where is ROE?

Anyway, MYX did spike on the report - up to $1.46ish I believe, but really closed out the day weak. Languishing in the teens now - not sure what the catalyst will be for the next move. Risk off sentiment doesn’t help.

 

[galumay]

where is ROE?

He still posts in other places, so he is around. Doesnt seem to pop in here any more.

 

[just_jay]

AGM coming up on 29 Nov.
Saw the nice increase in vol today and the strong candle and I'm off chasing the carrot.

 

[mcgrath111]

Taken a big falls in recent months, I'm wondering if it is to do with the 'cartel conduct' investigation currently being undertaken by the DOJ?
Last report looked pretty good & shorts are down...what am I missing?

 

[Darc Knight]

Here's another of these Stocks sitting just outside range of $3+bil Index Funds.
201 on ASX ranking, up 1.29% so far this morning.

 

[Knobby22]

Gone Mayne Pharma in the comp.
Interim report released near the end of the month. Hoping drop in Aussie Dollar combined with good sales will lead to a rerating. No longer own but still interested.

 

[galumay]

Hopefully you are right Knobby22 as I still hold!

 

[Knobby22]

Hopefully you are right Knobby22 as I still hold!

I thought the result looked OK. Why is the market unhappy galumay?
Right near the bottom for the comp.

 

[peter2]

After the disappointing year that MYX has had I'd hate to get anyone's hopes up. There's a reversal BO opportunity on my chart right now. This is only for the "desperates" and those who can manage their downside exposure. Price probably needs a lot more time. The last basing pattern lasted one year before the break-out. It could just be that investors are feeling good with the market at yearly highs and they're willing to have a punt on a downtrodden MYX.

 

[greggles]

Mayne Pharma Group savaged today after announcing that their Generic Products business has been under-performing and is 32% down in January to April 2019 as compared to the same period last year.

Unfortunately for MYX their Generic Products business, which includes key products liothyronine and dofetilide, is also the largest part of their business and the company admitted today that the decline in sales is as a result of competitive pressure.

The last nine months have been a shocker for MYX, declining from a high of $1.33 in early October 2018 to a low of 56c today. I suppose the pressing question is where will it eventually bottom out? There might be an opportunity for brave souls looking to pick the bottom here. Unless, of course, there is more bad news to come.

 

[galumay]

I still think there is a good business in there somewhere, its not going to go bust. Its a pretty attractive contrarian play, probably got hammered worse today in a falling market. You probably need a pretty long term view to take a position now, but opportunity is there.

 

[Knobby22]

Big drop in profit over the last 3 months.
You would have to say if that continues the long term value isn't looking that great and you really need to base any future on the new products to be released.
I'm thinking the present price is about right. Worth keeping an eye on if it goes lower.