My Worst Pick Ever

[luke256]

Hey Burglar,

What i was trying to say was that i wouldn't be in the trade long to begin with and therefore wouldn't need to calc where a stop loss.

A stop loss wouldn't be of much use for you on that option from the looks of it. I would buy fewer options to manage risk so if they expired worthless the draw down on the portfolio is less. If you are trading with 100k account and only wanted to risk 5% per trade then i would buy no more than $5000 worth of options.

It will limit the profits compared to smacking 50k or 100k at a time but will allow around 20 bad trades (exc. commissions) in a row before you are wiped out.

In most cases for a long trade I'll put my stops under the previous swing bottom on the swing chart.

 

[burglar]

Hey Burglar,

What i was trying to say was that i wouldn't be in the trade long to begin with and therefore wouldn't need to calc where a stop loss.

A stop loss wouldn't be of much use for you on that option from the looks of it. I would buy fewer options to manage risk so if they expired worthless the draw down on the portfolio is less. If you are trading with 100k account and only wanted to risk 5% per trade then i would buy no more than $5000 worth of options.

It will limit the profits compared to smacking 50k or 100k at a time but will allow around 20 bad trades (exc. commissions) in a row before you are wiped out.

In most cases for a long trade I'll put my stops under the previous swing bottom on the swing chart.

I know what you were trying to say ... i'm just patiently waiting ... waiting ... waiting

 

[tech/a]

Paul

G'day Tech

I have been looking at the white numbers on the red/blue background and I am interested in what it is I should notice. Here's my list:

- 2 positions with multiple sell lmt and sell stp orders, larger than other positions - is this due to adding to winning positions ?

Yes

- Large variation in position sizes even with single sell lmt and sell stp orders (no pyramiding) - is this due to position sizing based on trade risk, ie, buy-stp, to limit portfolio risk to a maximum pre-determined figure for any one position ?

Yes

- No large losses (compared to the size of the gains) - exit before the loss gets too big.

Yes Run the winners
What you dont see (Cant see) is the stops getting cranked UP when the stock stalls or corrects

- All positions have sell lmt and sell stp orders - maximum loss and profit targets decided before starting the trade.

Sell limits are only there incase of a spike I move these out if its going well.

Have I made too many assumptions, what have I missed ?

The reward to risk is around 10:1 on that screen Yesterday
Todays screen looks very different.

My Portfolio management is agressive cutting losses/Adding to positions/Taking profit/Adding new positions.
The bottom line is to have the equity line continually ticking over to the positive.
If you have a portfolio page like this one below then thats GOING to happen.

Index trades are traded AH on the FTSE and DAX.
These are short term from intraday/night to a few days.

Good to see we have some people on this board with enquiring minds and common sense--

 

[burglar]

Paul
Good to see we have some people on this board with enquiring minds and common sense--

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts."

enquiring minds ... mmm tick yes, I have that
common sense ... is not so common

Hey duck!
I googled ducks+on+the+pond

http://www.google.com.au/search?q=ducks+on+the+pond

In my wildest dreams I did not expect this ! lol

Cheers,
enquiring mind :

 

[Sean K]

We've all had one.

Great writeups in great Magazines.
Share price in a strong upward trend.
Shareholder Purchase Plans with attractive premiums.
Great Plans for the future.

Then comes a long slow downtrend.
The entity fails to show real progress.
Shareholders lose faith and bail.

Then one day, the kiss-of-death, ...
Consolidation 1 for every 20 held

My first wife!

 

[burglar]

My first wife!

was she a lion, and were all your offspring tions?

 

[Poppypop]

Its pretty frustrating to hold a speccie/value stock with great prospects for a while,

it drifts lower, you lose patience, sell, and shift capital elswhere

It ascent starts very soon after, and the stock doubles in less than a year

That has happened to me a few times

It hurts even more when the the upsurge is from a big announcement just after you sold.

MSB, LNG, FMG, BEPPA

lol yup that's happened to me with FMG in 2009. Bought 90,000 shares @$2.00 and sold for a loss @ $1.80 - Today they are worth $6.40. Bought $50,000 shares of IPL@$2.50 in 2009 only to sell it on the open at $1.80 the next morning before it plummeted more - today they are worth $3.83. Really dumb I know and I'm still recovering from it today. I had only been in the sharemarket 3 months though and had no experience or education about share trading before that. Biggest lesson I have learn't is don't put all your eggs in one basket - you never know whats going to be around the corner. I don't use stop losses and have never felt compelled to do so in 2 years trading. I just have sms alerts sent to me if a stock falls below my lowest price and then i decide from there what i will do.

 

[burglar]

lol yup that's happened to me with FMG in 2009. ... Really dumb I know and I'm still recovering from it today.

Wow, they are really big numbers!
But looking past that, I feel your pain! *appropriate emoticon*

I don't use stop losses and have never felt compelled to do so in 2 years trading. I just have sms alerts sent to me if a stock falls below my lowest price and then i decide from there what i will do.

Are you saying that you stop losses but you don't use stop losses?
Seems to me that SMS alerts are the next best way.

PS I was castigated for time wasting whilst trawling the emoticons, but that day I found the one I wanted, Next time, I will know where to find it.

 

[tech/a]

Biggest lesson I have learn't is don't put all your eggs in one basket

You would benifit from looking up and understanding Portfolio heat.

 

[burglar]

...

I do get your points re TechAnalysis.
I am willing to devote the time!

But it's mentally draining, know what i mean?

Cheers,
burglar

 

[nunthewiser]

unreal.

 

[tech/a]

I do get your points re TechAnalysis.
I am willing to devote the time!

But it's mentally draining, know what i mean?

Cheers,
burglar

Your kidding!!

Google>>
Portfolio heat>>
Select>>
Read>>
Learn>>

This is NOT tech analysis it is portfolio management---Fundamental Discretionary--systematic--whatever.

Perhaps you'd like me to trade for you???
You never stop learning Ive only scratched the surface after 16 yrs!
They say 10000 hrs to become proficient.

Prepare to be drained for at least 8000 of them!
In the end you'll find you only need to learn about 5% of the 100% of information you find.

 

[Boggo]

But it's mentally draining, know what i mean?

Awww diddums, do I sense some gen Y attitude.

Your kidding!!

Unfortunately I don't think he is !

127 posts since 22nd Nov and a source of light entertainment, what more can we ask for

 

[burglar]

Your kidding!!

Google>>
Portfolio heat>>
...
Perhaps you'd like me to trade for you??? ...

"Portfolio heat basically answers the question of how many new positions you can have open at any one time. Professional traders use this technique to manage and quantify their total risk in the market. They understand that trading is about the successful management of risk and they always know what the worst-case loss would be if all their positions were to hit their stops today."
Cool.
It has a name, a definition and no doubt a long string of examples and anecdotes.
I am guilty in the first degree ... not once but twice, cause I did it again before realising it was this "Portfolio heat" for which I had no name, no mentor at the time, (did I just here Boggo laff)
It was not portfolio destroying, just delaying!

as always, insert *appropriate emoticon*,
burglar

 

[Julia]

unreal.

On the contrary, nun, seemingly all too real.

 

[nunthewiser]

On the contrary, nun, seemingly all too real.

definately a worry either way.

 

[burglar]

Awww diddums, do I sense some gen Y attitude.



Unfortunately I don't think he is !

127 posts since 22nd Nov and a source of light entertainment, what more can we ask for

"A little bitty tear let you down, spoiled your act as a clown!"

I did my research!:

cheers,
burglar

 

[burglar]

unreal.

I googled Portfolio heat and it came in with some intelligent stuff.

HOWEVER, I also googled don't put all of your eggs in one basket

http://netnewsledger.com/?p=4402

So I figure talking duck has higher education than the rest of us.
Maybe?




When a duck talks, burglar listens. If that is unreal , so be it~~

 

[matty77]

Hot tip from neighbour, a sure thing.... I should have known better.

Missed out on the IPO, boohoo at $.25, bought in a $.17, I am a genius. Stock is now $.075 only bought $1000 though. So 57% down. Currently winning 10 out of 14 trades, thank god I only but $1k in. Holding until Uranium is sold to China... lol

neighbour bought more shares at $.25, her first go at buying shares, maybe $10k worth... woops...

oh stock was FIS

 

[burglar]

Hot tip from neighbour, a sure thing.... I should have known better.

Missed out on the IPO, boohoo at $.25, bought in a $.17, I am a genius. Stock is now $.075 only bought $1000 though. So 57% down. Currently winning 10 out of 14 trades, thank god I only but $1k in. Holding until Uranium is sold to China... lol

neighbour bought more shares at $.25, her first go at buying shares, maybe $10k worth... woops...

oh stock was FIS

I don't own this thread, but i think I do!
Matty77, I thank you for your contribution,

My original idea: to leave a legacy for newbies.
I was rather hoping for content rather
than light entertainment! lol
Either way, its Ok!

Uranium to China, ... interesting!
Yes, I have a view on this *groan*
FWIW, I believe Namibian Uranium will reach China
before Aussie Uranium!

Matty, hang in, though.
It's a pendulum, uranium will be back.