Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

My Trading Plan/System (Beginner)

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So I've been reading quite a bit and for quite a while now and I'd like to finally head into trading. If someone can look over my plan and give me feedback that'd be great!

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Aim: To make enough money so that I won't have to work anymore.

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Starting Capital: $AUD7500
Risk per trade: 1%
Commission per trade: $6 ($12 both ways)
Target per week: $150 or a 2% increase per week
Target per day: $30 or 0.4% increase per day
How will the profits be used?: I've some how found a way to live off of $50 per week (I'm a uni student still living at home). The remaining $100 will be left in the account. If I manage to generate MORE than $150 per week then only $50 will be taken out and the rest will be re-invested. If I generate LESS than $150 per week then only 20% of profits will be taken. If I happen to end the week with a loss then no money will be taken.

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What will I be trading and on what timeframe?: I intend to go long on Australian shares at first, holding for a 1-5 day period. I'll then look into shorting stocks, the US market and finally FOREX. As for timeframes, I may trade intraday as I get more screen time.
Which stocks do I intend to trade?: I will be sticking to those in the ASX top 100-200.
What systems/methods will you be using?:
  1. VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)
    Easy to understand, hence I feel confident using it.​
  2. Volume based-Trend following
    Still a work in progress. All it does is buy on the fourth day after three days of successively higher closes and volumes. It will short when the opposite occurs. I'm trying to get it to sell after the market goes sideways for 3 days (with either decreasing or equal volume, haven't figured this out yet). I still haven't done the Cover trigger.
    Code:
    /*Formula for Average Volume*/
    y=MA(Volume,10);
    
    /*Going Long*/
    /************/
    /*Buy Condition: Three consecutive up-thrust days with successively increasing volume*/
    Buy = Ref(C,-2)<Ref(C,-1) AND Ref(C,-1)<C AND Ref(C,-2)<C AND Ref(V,-2)<Ref(V,-1) AND Ref(V,-1)<V AND Ref(V,-2)<V;
    /*Sell Condition: Three days where the close is sideways (+/- 5% of each other) and volume is successively decling but larger than average for the first two days*/
    Sell = (Ref(C,-2)<1.025*Ref(C,-1) AND Ref(C,-2)>0.975*Ref(C,-1)) AND (Ref(C,-2)<1.025*C AND Ref(C,-2)>0.975*C) AND (Ref(C,-1)<1.025*C AND Ref(C,-1)>0.975*C) AND (Ref(V,-2)>Ref(V,-1) AND Ref(V,-1)>V AND Ref(V,-2)>V);
    
    /*Going Short*/
    /*Short = Ref(C,-2)>Ref(C,-1) AND Ref(C,-1)>C AND Ref(C,-2)>C AND Ref(V,-2)<Ref(V,-1) AND Ref(V,-1)<V AND Ref(V,-2)<V;*/
  3. Reversals
    This one was the first system that I tried to code. Needs a lot more work than the other one. I want it to buy on a reversal that spike downwards (possibly followed by upthrusts). I won't use this for shorting as I don't believe it'll be as successful as the former. Haven't figured out Sell signals yet.
    Code:
    /*This systems aims to buy on the day AFTER a reversal has occured*/
    Va= MA(V, 10);
    
    /*Entry*/
    /*====================*/
    /*Conditions for Upthrust Bar are just Close > Open*/
    /*Conditions for Reversal Bar*/
    xs=Ref((O-L)/O,-1); /*Size of the downward spike*/
    xo=Ref((H-O)/H,-1); /*How close the Open is to the High*/
    
    Buy = C>Ref(C,-1) AND Ref(O<C,-1) AND xs>=0.04 AND xo<=0.15 AND Ref(C,-2)<HHV(Close,4);
    
    /*Exit*/
    /*=====================*/
    /*Conditions for length of bar*/
    yl=(H-L)/H;
    /*Position of close*/
    yc=(H-C)/H;
    
    Sell= O>C AND yc<=0.01 AND yl<=0.24 AND V>=1.25*Va;
I may end up just using Trend following system with stocks and VSA on FOREX.


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Questions:
  1. Is a 2% gain per week realistic, given my starting capital?
  2. Can I trade $7500 intraday and still have a good chance at $30 win/day?

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Tips for other newbies that are reading
  • The cheapest brokerage in AUS is belldirect @ $15 per trade
  • If you're okay with opening an account with Interactive Brokers then they charge $6 per trade
    CONDITIONS: You need a MINIMUM of $10000 USD HOWEVER if you're under the age of 21 then you need a MINIMUM of $3000 USD (which is about $5000 AUD). You will also be charged a minimum of $10 USD (or $3 USD if you're under 21) for minimum account activity.​
  • Use the excel file attached to model gains using a system with diff. win % (see instructions)
 

Attachments

  • MoneyExpert.xls
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Saiter,

Im not a day trader, but i dont think the starting capital is sufficient. What happens if you lose your first 10 trades? Instantly your 10% down.

Aside from that i'll leave it to others to comment. Have a search for some similar terms, a lot of people have these sort of questions etc :)
 
Saiter,

Im not a day trader, but i dont think the starting capital is sufficient. What happens if you lose your first 10 trades? Instantly your 10% down.

Aside from that i'll leave it to others to comment. Have a search for some similar terms, a lot of people have these sort of questions etc :)

Well in my view, 10% is 10%, whether I had $7500 or $20000, although I do have a better chance at surviving with $20000. Anyways, if I were trading a system with 30% win 70% loss, there'd be a 2.8% chance of getting 10 straight losers (0.7^10, i think). I like those odds ;)
 
My guess is after three days of up moves on rising volume you would be better shorting. :(. Especially if your hold time is so short. And in this market!!
 
Good luck ......it can be done


just watch that discipline as only takes a lil slipup here and there and bye bye capital

partly agrees with prawn re needing more capital but in same sense one has to start somewhere and if your plan is stuck to AND used with iron clad discipline you may have a good ole chance of growing it substantially

good luck and may the force be with ya

ps agrees with TH also as this aint no market to be using bull market strategies
 
Thanks for the replies fellahs. I'm not sure if I can short on IB without equities but I'll have a look.
 
best of luck champ!

only way to learn is to do i believe.

you have a plan, if you stick to it you wont lose it all; and it very well may work.

the most important thing is your money management. make sure you stick to that, even if your method is making losses.
 
that's why currencies are great. i dont care which way they move, as long as they move. long or short.

That and the fact that I can trade them day and night. The only thing keeping me from trading FOREX is the absence of volume in the data. I'm not sure how I'd apply VSA to FOREX so I'll have to trade it using trends.
 
Please ignore my previous post i was under the impression of equities not currencys

i have no idea re forex (bullmarkets/bears)

good luck regardless
 
That and the fact that I can trade them day and night. The only thing keeping me from trading FOREX is the absence of volume in the data. I'm not sure how I'd apply VSA to FOREX so I'll have to trade it using trends.

Looks like volume to me mate:

Its basically tick volume.

Cheers,

CanOz
 

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That and the fact that I can trade them day and night. The only thing keeping me from trading FOREX is the absence of volume in the data. I'm not sure how I'd apply VSA to FOREX so I'll have to trade it using trends.

The ability to trade at night was what drew me to forex initially, in fact I really only trade Tuesday and Wednesday nights now.

I started with a much smaller capital base than you and funded my IG account with a fraction of that. And I've been making consistent profits since week 1.

I trade AUD/USD using support and resistance lines; nothing else. It really does not get any simpler than that. I started that way when I came across the "No Brainer Trades" thread on Forex Factory and have since found a few other similar strategies:

No Brainer Trades blog
No Brainer Trades FF thread
Jacko's FF thread
James16 FF thread

Best of luck with it, whether you look into forex or stick with stocks. Oh, and sorry if this is getting off-topic...

P.S - I made sure I could be consistently profitable on the IG Markets demo for quite a while before I went live.

P.P.S - Not affiliated with IG at all, just happen to use them as my broker.


Edit: LOL @ all the forex traders trying to convert you!
 
Can is that esignals vol? Not really true vol. If its what i think it is its just changes in bid/ask. The value in volume is when the big numbers go through as real transactions not the changes. Big Diff? You can get FX vol if you use the GLOBEX futs that will work.

Saiter whats the back testing results for this sucker? You have back tested it? I really think you may have it ar$e about, IMHO. You have to know what to expect before you but $'s on the table. Other wise you are just guessing no?

Another thing that may be wise is drop the initial size down to 0.5% to start. Especially if your back testing doesn't show a BIG edge. You may find the reason you thought this would work was a mistake or just execution at the start needs some refinement.
 
Saiter

My comments for what they're worth....

It would be preferable to have more than $7500 start up capital.

2% gain per week is 100% a year. Not many traders get those sort of returns, particularly not new traders.

It would be a deadly mistake to believe that three up days constitutes an uptrend, even if they're on increased volume.
If the overall trend is down, a few days of upward price movement is very likely a precursor to a resumption of the downtrend.
This is, in fact, the core strategy in the Oliver Valez swing trading system.......three up days during a downtrend, with the third of the three preferably being a small range day, is a shorting setup as soon as price goes below the bottom of the third day.
Three down days during an uptrend, with the third day being a small range day, is a buy setup as soon as price climbs above the top of the third day.

Your 1% risk per trade is pretty good.....even 2% is OK once you get a bit more experience under your belt.

The current market is making wild swings that are challenge even to seasoned traders. Long trades are even more challenging in this bearish, choppy market.
You've picked a tough time to start your trading career. I would suggest you trade with a demo account until this market settles down.
 
Can is that esignals vol? Not really true vol. If its what i think it is its just changes in bid/ask. The value in volume is when the big numbers go through as real transactions not the changes. Big Diff? You can get FX vol if you use the GLOBEX futs that will work.

Correct, transactional volume is how they refer to it. Its the only was to guage spot fx volume. obviously yes, the futs are the to go for real Volume. Perhaps you could use a system on the futs and trade the spot?

My system is not volume based but i use TG with esignal for charts and some of thier prop signals.

CanOz
 
Oh and since I'm pickin' the hell out of ya :)(only because I care;))

Drop the daily profit target if you are trading EOD. Its only going to create conflict with taking stops and letting good trades run. People say trading takes discipline but then go about setting up "plans" that will cause you to be looking at the wrong thing. You have no control or idea what the next 5 trades will do & if you are trading EOD that could be the next 3 days. Your profit target should be measured in blocks of say 20 trades. Anything less and you will fall into taking trades off the table too soon. Before long your talking about discipline. Give yourself some breathing space!
 
Heres the two charts, one with TG eSignal "volume" and one with Amibroker and Globex EUR Future volume, for comparison.

Cheers,


CanOz
 

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maybe you should backtest this system,

particularly look at how it would of done in the past 2 months.

if your expectancy is less than 1.00, you've just saved yourself a whole lot of hurt

if its above 1.00 tread cautiously, you should have the confidence to trade it considering the conditions remain the same... and give you the ability to endure your max drawdown.

-agree with dropping the profit target, atleast such a short-sited one like TH suggested.

good luck :)
 
Thanks for all the replies.

Regarding back testing: I can't back test the system until I get some sort of exit strategy with stops in place, otherwise amibroker holds on to losing shares, hoping that they'll eventually go up! I think I may just using a trailing stop and wait for the price to cut through that.

Regarding FX volume: Thanks for the heads up on FX futures volume. I pretty much know nothing about FX at the moment so I'll have a read first. Thanks for the links Underpants.

Regarding the trend system: This won't be a mechanical system. If it alerts me to a stock that is currently trending up whilst the underlying trend is down, then I'm not going to take that trade (unless there's nearby support, back up from volume etc.)

Regarding expected profits: To be honest, I'm not sure what to expect from this, as long as I generate some sort of income then I'll be happy :)

I'll try and get some sell triggers coded and I'll post the results up.
 
Regarding back testing: I can't back test the system until I get some sort of exit strategy with stops in place,

Classic!! So you haven't a clue about your trigger, what to expect as far as stats, expected size of initial stop, win rate, DD, Amount of opportunities this will trigger daily OR as bunyip & I suspect that it would be a better trigger for a opposite entry and on and on....



:afro::shake::microwave:grenade::vomit:
What are these? just thought I would lighten my post
 
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