My Hot Stocks

[brerwallabi]

Tech
The software you use is it freeware or do you have to purchase or subscribe, I bought some software a while a go and threw it out did not do what i wanted it to do, totally useless, I am trying Excel atm and attempting to set some examples and scenarios but its very time consuming and a sheet of paper and a pencil works just as well, it would be interesting if you did put all selections on a spreadsheet and post. It could be huge though maybe restrict to regular posters anyway its your call and your time. As regards the wave its easy to jump on and get a ride, its also knowing when to get out before you get dumped. I have missed many dollars through my conservatism but the money has gone elsewhere on the next rising wave, so it keeps on generating income. I would always rather get out to early then to late. Thats my plan and I stick to it most of the time apart from MUL which could be my biggest mistake this year.

 

[brerwallabi]

Tech
Just in reference to inside trader, I get their newsletter every week, and follow their stock picks of the week,I have a half finished file of how they have been tracking some good sucesses there, when I get a chance will post it.

 

[tech/a]

B.

Ive only been recieving it for 2 mths and have only seen their results posted to me by email.
Ofcourse they are the pick of the best.
Im looking at combining T/A with their F/A to select trading prospects which ill either trade margin (if they are on the list) or possibly using CFD,s.

As for software.
Metastock for basic analysis and stock selection.($890)
Tradesim for system design and testing ($1590)
Marketcast for luxury and short term trading on the odd occasion Gives me a live ticker on my desk with scanning ability and Tick data from 1 min to weekly.($450 + $180/Mth)


tech

 

[Tric]

tech/a
I don't really want to get into the debate on how to trade, each to their own and I totally respect the generating of discussion and learning you have promoted tech/a.

but have to respond to this (with a degree of tongue in cheek)

"Much easier to ride/continue to ride an incoming wave than sit around in the water waiting for one to build up !"

imo it depends on many factors, but my best response is:
"depends on how big a wave you're waiting for and how good a ride it is".

the key is not to be dumped and wiped out...

imo a balanced holding is important and when picking penny hopefuls, having your finger on the pulse at all times is vital.

 

[brerwallabi]

Well what a suprise I got when I finished looking at inside traders pick of the week stocks, whilst I have a great deal of respect for the organisation their record atm in POTW's is not really hot. Their reports are very constructed and researched and are eagerly waited for, but have a look at the last six months picks from 1st July 2004 and there aren't too many success stories.

 

[tech/a]

tech/a
I don't really want to get into the debate on how to trade, each to their own and I totally respect the generating of discussion and learning you have promoted tech/a.

but have to respond to this (with a degree of tongue in cheek)

"Much easier to ride/continue to ride an incoming wave than sit around in the water waiting for one to build up !"

imo it depends on many factors, but my best response is:
"depends on how big a wave you're waiting for and how good a ride it is".

Well you could be waiting for a wave that never comes.If its moving then ride it! if its flat no point waiting while other waves are on their way (Opportunity cost).

the key is not to be dumped and wiped out...

How can you avoid that which you cannot predict?Is it not better to be in the position where even being dumped wont mean wipe out!

imo a balanced holding is important and when picking penny hopefuls, having your finger on the pulse at all times is vital.

If your determining balanced holding to Performers non performers and losers then thats a balance i try to avoid.
I encourage actively seeking and remaining involved in PERFORMERS for as log as possible NON PERORMERS for as short as possible and LOSERS get DUMPED

As for the Insight Trader observations I also noted a rather un usual trate.

Of 10 Directors who SOLD major stakes in their own Companies ALL of their companies GAINED!!!!!

Jury is out for me at this point but my INITIAL veiw as Im a new subscriber is that as a Fundamental tool only results will/are average.
Time will tell wether my timing tool (Tech analysis) gives an edge to hopping on performers as they emerge

tech

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

BrerWallabi..

*shocking* stock picks that you posted (from Inside Trader)in a market that rose over 50% over 18 months?

I wouldn't be happy if i was following thier choices, especially at $10k a hit.

The Barbarian Investor

 

[RichKid]

Well what a suprise I got when I finished looking at inside traders pick of the week stocks, whilst I have a great deal of respect for the organisation their record atm in POTW's is not really hot. Their reports are very constructed and researched and are eagerly waited for, but have a look at the last six months picks from 1st July 2004 and there aren't too many success stories.

Hi Brer,
I haven't checked their site directly but from the brief bit of info you've compiled the performance is very poor- especially for a bull market Thanks for sharing the info. Always good to see performance histories even though the future maybe different it does help. We can't really judge them unless an accountant does a proper audit but who has the time for that anyway? I only know of fat prophets (tip sheet) that advertises it's audited returns (see tipsheets thread) but they don't disclose the name of the auditor and I haven't bothered checking it myself.

 

[brerwallabi]

The following is off Inside Trader website (it shows subscribers the gain in their picks) which they have not updated for a while as its last update is 2nd Nov, please be aware that i included SOL on my list when it should have been SUL. Their previous record from July 02 to Nov04 is 51.4% gain, they dont say what it is currently for the last 6 months and I guess I could work it out. Overall their fundamental analysis around stocks is very good, they just dont cover the stocks below but cover a wide variety, but lousy pick of the weeks recently.
DATE Code Flag Price Current Gain Max Gain
6-Jul-04 CDC $1.51 17.90% 21.20%
13-Jul-04 KZL $0.94 -6.40% 4.30%
20-Jul-04 BTA $0.56 0.00% 28.60%
28-Jul-04 SMX $0.39 1.30% 10.30%
4-Aug-04 QRS $0.18 47.20% 69.40%
10-Aug-04 CKL $0.59 3.40% 10.20%
16-Aug-04 DEG $0.49 7.20% 27.80%
23-Aug-04 MRE $2.32 6.90% 9.90%
30-Aug-04 MTR $0.20 20.00% 47.50%
8-Sep-04 PNO $0.05 -5.60% 48.10%
14-Sep-04 ANE $4.03 -2.70% 2.70%
22-Sep-04 SUL $2.89 8.00% 12.50%
29-Sep-04 LCP $0.72 0.00% 1.40%
6-Oct-04 ACR $0.95 -7.40% 1.10%
12-Oct-04 AAU $1.12 0.00% 4.50%
19-Oct-04 VCR $1.49 11.40% 16.10%
25-Oct-04 BTA $0.59 -5.10% 8.50%
2-Nov-04 OXR $0.98 3.10% 5.10%

 

[tech/a]

Thats why I think its important to put in some effort yourself/myself.

Tech analysis gives the opportunity to better time entry and exit,rather than a fundamental buy now and hold till????who knows.

Thats what tradings about extracting what you can when you can from prospects.BUY/HOLD isnt trading.

Like renovating a house.
Starts off as potential once completed you reap your return. In its raw state its not worth as much as the finished product so apply some Analysis,Money Management,and Risk analysis and reap the rewards---you can outperform Inside Trader using their own selections!!

 

[Fleeta]

Interesting discussion - But what about when losers become winners...For example this one attached - Noni B - now when I bought in way back in May 2000 for 84c, it went nowhere down to a low of about 60c, at this point you would have gotten out if you follow your theory. However, the tide turned, and when I finally got out recently at $2.60, I had a win. If I followed your wisdom, I would have taken a minimal loss and used the funds I had left to try to pick a winner - something I have done by staying in the stock. All I am doing by getting out of stocks when things go bad and moving into another stock is incurring brokerage costs...and then the danger that my new stock underperforms the one I was holding. Personally, I am a fan of buy and hold, for the exact reason that this graph shows. Like they say in golf, it's not how you get there, its the score at the end that counts!

 

[brerwallabi]

Fleeta i respect the way you invest, your comfortable with it and it suits your purpose/plan and you have long term targets. Just to me if i had $10k and purchased shares in May 00 which would equate to 11,904 shares @ .84cps and then sold 4 years later at $2.60 that would mean a gain of $20,951 with favourable taxation. Yes very nice but your capital was for some stages decreasing and not earning you income, if you are prepared for that fine but i am not i have to be generating income all the time when trading, and picking up $1 or 2k on $10k (actually using a lot more then $10k) a week, over 4 years this would generate $200 to $400k over that timeframe. I am no longer in a postion do so, new job role but i still trade but not at the point of 2 - 6 trades (average might have been 4) a day that i was previously doing. yes i know i have not deducted brokerage but even if we took brokerage @ $20k a year i would still be a long way in front even after tax. Yes a lot of effort compared to your one investment - but i bloody well enjoyed (also very exhausting) it too. Anyway all paths lead to the same .......?

 

[tech/a]

But what about when losers become winners...

This is always the concern for the trader.Thats the MAIN reason traders wont take their stops.WHAT IF I TAKE THE LOSS AND THE STOCK TURNS

The answer to this is simply.
Youll have left the stock in search of another issue moving in the direction your trading.Youll keep doing this until your portfolio is full of issues trading positively.If your with excess funds then when you see a favorite on your watchlist moving positively then youll buy it!
It doesnt matter WHICH winners your riding only that they are WINNERS.You wont trade them all---you dont have to.

Suprisingly I didnt trade this stock and still managed to make good returns last year!

 

[Tric]

Just an addit,
There is no rule saying you can't buy in & out of a stock. Often a good way if you really believe in a stock and don't want to miss the boat and we all have stocks that we feel that way about. As tech/a knows, I held asv and watched it decline. I bought at 20c, sold at 17, and bought back at 13.5 and have held. This is a way of tuning your stop loss method (which has attracted so much talk on this site, along with the t/a vs fundamentals debate)

imo, the key is to watch your holdings but I guess that is easier for some than others.

 

[Mofra]

Tric,

I agree with your sentiments - too many people say they like the stock fundamentally and "it will come back" but why hold until then? Personally I've stopped out and bought back into the same stock many times, and in all bar a handful of occasions it saved me pain.

Chatting on another site I've spoken to people who bought CMQ above $6 and have continually averaged down - I guess evey cap raising and price fall made the stock seem "cheaper". Do people really "like" a stock so much they're prepared to lose their money on it?

 

[Bonk]

ARQ = GETRICH + $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Bingo]

Just so they are recorded, the stocks I have taken positions in for 2005 are:

NAB
TLS
CGF
SRP
PLF
AHO

Stocks that I have held for some time and am keen on in 2005 are:

AMP
NWS
LIP

Bingo

 

[bad company]

BOQ,HME,ABP,WEZ,RRS,MOS.

Do your own research!

 

[DTM]

To all who may be interested

On my 2 watch lists for penny stocks I have the following:

1. Definitely will sky rocket soon:

ADY (again)
ADX

2. Maybe will skyrocket soon:

FCN
DYL
CUO
RRS (again)
URL

Regards

Daniel

Do your own research to catch the wave.

:samurai:

 

[Aussiejeff]

After a bit of sifting (sniffing?) I have come up with a shortlist of relatively low risk desirables to buy - COS (Cool or Cosy), UTB (UniTab), IAG (Insurance Australia Group, LNN (Lion Nathan).

The track records of these shares is mighty impressive, even during the '02 decline. COS should benefit into the future by the new building rules stipulating mandatory insulation. UTB should continue to grow since the last thing people will stop spending on during any downturn in the economy/share market will be GAMBLING! ;o) IAG appears to be doing just fine. LNN is like UTB in that drinking and pubbing will also be the last thing (relatively speaking) that people cut back on during declining economic times. Let's face it, if your 'other' shares aren't doing well, it's time to drown your sorrows, huh? lol.

Not only that, but along with outstanding 5 year growth records and 'low risk', each of these shares offers dividends in the range of 3.5 - 3.8%. Am I thinking straight here?

Oh, and for a bet on the side, I'm looking at OPL (Orchard Petroleum).

Happy New Year!!!

AJ