My Exits are Wrong

[skc]

Well, I just hit my target of 4796 a few moments ago.
Guess it pays to follow your plan.
I'll be honest though - this system has (despite wins like the above) very low expectancy at the moment. I'm convinced I'm not far off though.
Tech, I trade with IG Markets. Guess their prices are slightly different to the underlying market?
Bin

IG market Australia 200 is a made up number that follows the movement of the SPI but tracks the numerical value of the XJO... that's why there was a difference. They should really call this Australia 200 Cash. It comes with micro $1 lots so you can use target profit/trailing stop combo quite easily.

IG has a Australia 200 Forward contract which is the real SPI, but has a fix spread of 3 pts.

 

[Bin57again]

Thanks for clarifying SKC. Yes, I like the $1 micro contract because as one's confidence increases, so you can increase your position size. The spread is only 1 point until session draws near to close around 4.15 Sydney time. It then increases to 2, and then 4/5.

 

[tech/a]

OK

Here is my $s worth.
I trade Index Futures.

(1) Trade multiple contracts.
(2) Think Preservation and profit will come.
(3) If I cant get set on < 5 tick spread I wont take the trade.
(4) At 1.5 R (8 Ticks) Ill close Over 1/2 the contracts and move the rest to buy price B/E.
(5) Set sell at whatever you expect price to trade at in the future--.
(6) Take your profit.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Follow the holly grail of intraday trading. (and business in general)

Correctly/accurately estimating likely range and chop vs trend. (in business Boom vs tough times)

Without this skill discretionary intraday trading is doomed. If you want to do this stuff and survive the first 1000 cuts, before trades are placed and continually during the day, you have to assess FIRST if we are likely to just chop around (then you beg for coins) or the big boys have some business to do and there is large range and trends likely (then pull out the suit and pimp your big ideas). It doesn't matter how fancy your chart looks right now or how profitable you were trading the dailys the skill is fast assessment of future movement till the close.

From that comes how you play R:R. No point aiming for 1:2 in low vol chop as the market will not even reach R1/S1. Then again you will bleed to death taking 10 tics profits on a day the SPI runs 80 ticks and should be paying for 6 months of mortgage payments.

 

[Alpha_Bet]

Thanks for clarifying SKC. Yes, I like the $1 micro contract because as one's confidence increases, so you can increase your position size. The spread is only 1 point until session draws near to close around 4.15 Sydney time. It then increases to 2, and then 4/5.

When your confidence and bank balance says so, take your acct from IG, transfer to a Futures broker and trade the real product on the designated exchange.

 

[Alpha_Bet]

Follow the holly grail of intraday trading. (and business in general)

Correctly/accurately estimating likely range and chop vs trend. (in business Boom vs tough times)

Without this skill discretionary intraday trading is doomed. If you want to do this stuff and survive the first 1000 cuts, before trades are placed and continually during the day, you have to assess FIRST if we are likely to just chop around (then you beg for coins) or the big boys have some business to do and there is large range and trends likely (then pull out the suit and pimp your big ideas). It doesn't matter how fancy your chart looks right now or how profitable you were trading the dailys the skill is fast assessment of future movement till the close.

From that comes how you play R:R. No point aiming for 1:2 in low vol chop as the market will not even reach R1/S1. Then again you will bleed to death taking 10 tics profits on a day the SPI runs 80 ticks and should be paying for 6 months of mortgage payments.

Right on.

1000 cuts! Don't know how many times I had to go through the shredder! Call it persistence or stupidity.

 

[tech/a]

Follow the holly grail of intraday trading. (and business in general)

Correctly/accurately estimating likely range and chop vs trend. (in business Boom vs tough times)

Without this skill discretionary intraday trading is doomed. If you want to do this stuff and survive the first 1000 cuts, before trades are placed and continually during the day, you have to assess FIRST if we are likely to just chop around (then you beg for coins) or the big boys have some business to do and there is large range and trends likely (then pull out the suit and pimp your big ideas). It doesn't matter how fancy your chart looks right now or how profitable you were trading the dailys the skill is fast assessment of future movement till the close.

From that comes how you play R:R. No point aiming for 1:2 in low vol chop as the market will not even reach R1/S1. Then again you will bleed to death taking 10 tics profits on a day the SPI runs 80 ticks and should be paying for 6 months of mortgage payments.

Do you have a favourite or do you use different calculations and plot all?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Do you have a favourite or do you use different calculations and plot all?

Huh? What you talkin bout

 

[tech/a]

Correctly/accurately estimating likely range and chop vs trend.

Do you have a singular method of calculating/estimating the above or do you use multiple methods.

EG
Frank Dilernia's

Similar methods but not exactly the same as Frank's

Todd Krugger
Or
Brent Penfold who uses a few.

I thought it was a pretty straight forward question.
I've typed it slowly this time hopefully that will help comprehension.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Do you have a singular method of calculating/estimating the above or do you use multiple methods.

EG
Frank Dilernia's

Similar methods but not exactly the same as Frank's

Nah Tech. Thats my point. You need to work on implicit knowledge to become a good fulltime futures trader.

Daily traders mostly hunt trends/breakouts/bigger moves etc, I think you would agree?They turn up and trade when it suits their style of application or scan for setups that suit. As a generalisation.

When you're trading indexes intraday the market from day to day and hour to hour changes dramatically. Therefore so to should your tactics need to change. One hour/day/week your a scalper the next hour/day/week your a big dick intraday position trader holding till the close. Recognising the constant change IMO is the skill needed for a fulltime short term trader.

Granted this happens on all time frames but intraday traders have to recognise this in very compressed time frames or run the risk of getting chopped to bits on every move. I would guess if you needed a heap of indicators to tell you this you haven't the implicit knowledge I'm talking about.

 

[DB008]

Daily traders mostly hunt trends/breakouts/bigger moves etc, I think you would agree?They turn up and trade when it suits their style of application or scan for setups that suit. As a generalisation.

When you're trading indexes intraday the market from day to day and hour to hour changes dramatically. Therefore so to should your tactics need to change. One hour/day/week your a scalper the next hour/day/week your a big dick intraday position trader holding till the close. Recognising the constant change IMO is the skill needed for a fulltime short term trader.

Best quote so far this year (and l reckon the rest of the year too) Trembling Hand. The markets change minute by minute. Spot on!!!!

 

[tech/a]

So why is it then that we Dont have more successful women Futures traders?
perhaps its just a case of getting in touch with our feminine side.

Ok
What is it that you see as a change of sentiment during a session.
Volume--Range--- Both----Breakout/tightening/speed (time)
All these things and more or just pure weight of or lack of weight in numbers as you "feel" the mood of buyers and sellers change (Both at the same time normally)

 

[tech/a]

Best quote so far this year (and l reckon the rest of the year too) Trembling Hand. The markets change minute by minute. Spot on!!!!

Oh god another puppy.

 

[Trembling Hand]

So why is it then that we Dont have more successful women Futures traders?
perhaps its just a case of getting in touch with our feminine side.

Ok
What is it that you see as a change of sentiment during a session.
Volume--Range--- Both----Breakout/tightening/speed (time)
All these things and more or just pure weight of or lack of weight in numbers as you "feel" the mood of buyers and sellers change (Both at the same time normally)

I see inspite of a new year the same little pea brain children haven't grow a year older yet

Tech explain how you walk to me.

 

[tech/a]

Tech explain how you walk to me.

I get it .

But I can explain "how" I walk to you or anyone else.
I can explain how I drive a car or eat or ride a bike or feel for my friends or paddle around in my duck pond.
My wife (Daisy) evidently can "see" people she cant explain that either. So I understand its an intuition/a knowing/sixth sense/automatic never questioned you just KNOW.

I see inspite of a new year the same little pea brain children haven't grow a year older yet

I wouldn't have been that harsh on the Puppy.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I get it .

But I can explain "how" I walk to you or anyone else.

I bet you cannot.

Other than a lame "I pick up my left foot and place it in front of my right". Thats not an explanation about the whole process of walking, the balance, the process of muscle firing and relaxing, of the feedback loops your nerves system responds to as your foot hits an uneven surface, of the complex etc etc etc.

It is a learnt implicit skill requiring practise.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Oh by the way it has nothing to do with the "a knowing/sixth sense" nonsense.

 

[tech/a]

It is a learnt implicit skill requiring practise

I get it.

Joe Hasham
Viswanathan Anand
Bob Munden

All have a learnt implicit skill.

 

[Alpha_Bet]

Trembling Hand & tech/a,

Too funny

You guys both making coin? Who would ever thought traders have enlarged egos

Back to your spat.........

 

[avion]

Thank you Trembling Hand for finally revealing your Hand!

I took me 5 months (almost full time) on the IB sim to arrive at the same conclusion. Newbies take notice: this is it! The Holy Grail

But hey it's only sim, wait for the part 2: the real world!