My Brush with Technical Analysis

burglar · 8 September 2014

tech/a said:
... HSK ...

First thing I noticed for HSK ... it is in steep uptrend.
Then I noted that it rose on (relatively) low volume.

Next thing I look for is a continuation pattern.
Will it go up, down or sideways?
I did not see pattern with which I am familiar.
Doesn't mean there isn't any.

Anyways, I got distracted by a nagging question ...
What are the into?

Frac Sands?!

It dawns on me that I always do that.
Look for the value!

Frac Sands?!
In Canada!!

Oh well, I tried,
and I will try again.

PSY tomorrow.

burglar · 9 September 2014

burglar said:
First thing I noticed for HSK ... it is in steep uptrend.
Then I noted that it rose on (relatively) low volume.

Oh well, I tried,
and I will try again ...

Yesterday's action; most of the volume traded at the open and in the first 15 minutes.

All the trades were at $0.165 up $0.01 on previous close.
Perhaps buyers were soaking up supply.

tech/a · 9 September 2014

The point Im making Burgler is a simple one.
Each are in forward momentum.
These are the types of stock you should be searching out.

Find momentum and hop on it!
Some have flown since my first post!

burglar · 9 September 2014

tech/a said:
The point Im making Burgler is a simple one ...

Here we are in room full of horse manure.
I'm scrabbling through it, saying,
"There's got to be a horse in here, somewhere!"

You're simply saying,
"Take it to the garden, ... put it on the strawberries"

burglar · 9 September 2014

ASX: PSY|Panorama Synergy

The report that started the rise:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140731/pdf/42r4zr14fpt8ph.pdf

tech/a · 9 September 2014

Yeh the Fundi guys were all over it!

burglar · 16 September 2014

tech/a said:
Try these.
HSK
PSY
RFX
for pennies with momentum.
Lots to learn from these.---Right now and looking back and forward.

Looking "Right now"
I shoulda been looking for ones like these!
But I am not brave enough to jump on them so late.

"Looking back"
What do these look like when ripening?
I believe PSY was kickstarted by an announcement.

"Looking forward"
When to get off?
What should I look for?

Julia · 16 September 2014

Burglar, get yourself a book about trends and how to use them.

Sir Osisofliver · 16 September 2014

burglar said:
Looking "Right now"
I shoulda been looking for ones like these!
But I am not brave enough to jump on them so late.

"Looking back"
What do these look like when ripening?
I believe PSY was kickstarted by an announcement.

"Looking forward"
When to get off?
What should I look for?

Would you like some homework?

Tell me what's happening in SBM.

Cheers

Sir O

Edit - NOT A HOLDER, NOR A RECOMMENDATION

pixel · 16 September 2014

burglar said:
Looking "Right now"
I shoulda been looking for ones like these!
But I am not brave enough to jump on them so late.

"Looking back"
What do these look like when ripening?
I believe PSY was kickstarted by an announcement.

"Looking forward"
When to get off?
What should I look for?

The way I interpret Tech's suggestion:
Grab a chart of any of those stocks, scroll back to where they turned up, and look for clues that may have suggested "something is underway". Forget the announcements for a moment; just focus on the chart and try to find similarities. They're there.

Example: PSY on July 30th.

Now scroll forward one day at a time ...

pixel · 16 September 2014

Sir Osisofliver said:
Would you like some homework?

Tell me what's happening in SBM.

Cheers

Sir O

Edit - NOT A HOLDER, NOR A RECOMMENDATION

Good point, Sir O.

skc · 16 September 2014

Sir Osisofliver said:
Would you like some homework?

Tell me what's happening in SBM.

Cheers

Sir O

Edit - NOT A HOLDER, NOR A RECOMMENDATION

Short answer... Not sure except that Hunter Hall is buying big.

Long answer
- The financials are saying "I need to raise capital to pay down $450m of debt in light of the falling gold price and costly operations."
- The management announcement is saying "Trust us to improve the operations and bring this thing back on track."
- The chart is saying "Here's some resistance for you @ ~23c. Break through this and you can go try 30. Otherwise I am going back down to ~17c."
- My gut is saying "Quite a few different (and wild) things can happen in a hurry and without much warning. To trade this I'd either be scalping a tick or two, or keep a pretty wide stop and hence small position size."

tech/a · 16 September 2014

skc said:
Short answer... Not sure except that Hunter Hall is buying big.

Long answer
- The financials are saying "I need to raise capital to pay down $450m of debt in light of the falling gold price and costly operations."
- The management announcement is saying "Trust us to improve the operations and bring this thing back on track."
- The chart is saying "Here's some resistance for you @ ~23c. Break through this and you can go try 30. Otherwise I am going back down to ~17c."
- My gut is saying "Quite a few different (and wild) things can happen in a hurry and without much warning. To trade this I'd either be scalping a tick or two, or keep a pretty wide stop and hence small position size."

Ill answer Burgler when I have more time.
SKC

There is only one thing to note here
What causes it and why is of no concern.
Price has doubled in a few weeks.

It telegraphed something was about to happen
then it confirmed it.

The trick is to find setups where momentum is changing
and anticipating the move with a low risk trade.

Look at the chart it REALLY IS clear.

skc · 16 September 2014

tech/a said:
Ill answer Burgler when I have more time.
SKC

There is only one thing to note here
What causes it and why is of no concern.
Price has doubled in a few weeks.

It telegraphed something was about to happen
then it confirmed it.

The trick is to find setups where momentum is changing
and anticipating the move with a low risk trade.

Look at the chart it REALLY IS clear.

Of course it's clear. It's broken out! It's easy to see repeatable patterns of the stocks you've mentioned... because they have all broken out. But to trade it and take a position in anticipation for the breakout one would need to make a call beforehand.

And what you may deem to be a low risk trade may have such high risk that you don't even realise exists.

tech/a · 16 September 2014

skc said:
Of course it's clear. It's broken out! It's easy to see repeatable patterns of the stocks you've mentioned... because they have all broken out. But to trade it and take a position in anticipation for the breakout one would need to make a call beforehand.

And what you may deem to be a low risk trade may have such high risk that you don't even realise exists.

No it WAS low risk.
See chart re your comment.
As for making a call before hand it was clear to
not only myself but others that this was telegraphed.

The point I'm making to Burglar and anyone else who trades stocks and wants
to listen is to become proficient in finding these.
You can get in well before breakouts. But there will always be those who are "So blind they cannot see"

skc · 16 September 2014

tech/a said:
The point I'm making to Burglar and anyone else who trades stocks and wants
to listen is to become proficient in finding these.
You can get in well before breakouts. But there will always be those who are "So blind they cannot see"

That's the theory. In practice the trader gets into so many false starts that they lose 5R before they catch a real break. And only to have the break reverse on them and net 2R.

tech/a said:
See chart re your comment.
As for making a call before hand it was clear to
not only myself but others that this was telegraphed.

I'd invite you to make some calls (say 20-30) on similar patterns live and see how many of these turn out, but I understand it's difficult to committ to a project as such.

tech/a said:
No it WAS low risk.

Even if you got in at 12c (as opposed to 12.5 which is what EOD traders would most likely have paid), you'd have your stop just below 10c. So risk = 2c (but probably more like 2.7c with an entry at 12.5c and stop at 9.8c) and with SBM currently trading at 18c... it's a grand total of 6c profit or 2-3R.

Then there are the risks (trading halt, capital raising, convenant breach or just an overnight gap) that you simply don't want to know about.

Hey look, a low risk setup.

tech/a · 16 September 2014

skc said:
That's the theory. In practice the trader gets into so many false starts that they lose 5R before they catch a real break. And only to have the break reverse on them and net 2R.

I'd invite you to make some calls (say 20-30) on similar patterns live and see how many of these turn out, but I understand it's difficult to committ to a project as such.

Even if you got in at 12c (as opposed to 12.5 which is what EOD traders would most likely have paid), you'd have your stop just below 10c. So risk = 2c (but probably more like 2.7c with an entry at 12.5c and stop at 9.8c) and with SBM currently trading at 18c... it's a grand total of 6c profit or 2-3R.

Then there are the risks (trading halt, capital raising, convenant breach or just an overnight gap) that you simply don't want to know about.

Hey look, a low risk setup.
View attachment 59418

Id love to have the time to commit to the exercise.
I maybe in the position to test something like this at sometime.
Its part of the programing I'm doing currently.

Stay tuned.
If I find the odd one ill post it up as early as I can find them.

skyQuake · 16 September 2014

Sir Osisofliver said:
Would you like some homework?

Tell me what's happening in SBM.

Cheers

Sir O

Edit - NOT A HOLDER, NOR A RECOMMENDATION

*There was talk of hunter hall (sub holder) selling out their 50m shares. But it didn't seem to happen.
*Cannacord then started buying like madmen.
*Denver Gold forums this week, SBM expecting to see +ve Cash flow by June 2015 (Sureeeeeeee...)
*Its a S&P 300 Del this fri so I'd expect to see some heavy selling into that close.

Oh and today's move doesnt look very bullish - violent rejection of the Dec swing lows

skc said:
Hey look, a low risk setup.
View attachment 59418

Nice try, you're already max long aren't ya!

burglar · 16 September 2014

Hi notting,

Your predictive powers are amazing.
Will 15.5c hold.

On 29/08/14
More high-grade results at Artemis Cu-Au discovery:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01547979

A report that should have fired up, but for the announcement of a SSP.

rb250660 · 16 September 2014

Listen to skc.
Predicting the move with technical analysis is just bs and will end in tears with trades like these. If it was that easy we would all be trading from an arm chair on the beach full time living the dream just like this guy.

http://www.amazon.com/Weekend-Trend-Trader-Nick-Radge-ebook/dp/B00F4P0OWA/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1410862745&sr=8-1&keywords=Weekend+trend+trader

Trade the break confirmed by the good news. Beware the punter who falls for the pump and dump and gets trapped in a cap raising. It is possible to make a decent living from trading this rubbish and quite easily if you really know what you are doing.

My Brush with Technical Analysis

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