My 99 trades

[tech/a]

Needs some work.

 

[skc]

Needs some work.

Interesting how a chart reader will draw channels on any chart...The change in slow of the equity occured at around 2/3 of the way through.

First 66 trades - 29 wins, 36 losses (44%),avg win/avg loss = 1.32, net P/L = $290, avg holding period 6.6 days
Last 33 trades - 19 wins, 15 losses (57%), avg win/avg loss = 1.37, net P/L = $1503, avg holding period 12.6 days

Probably hard to read too much into this as market conditions were quite different in the first 66 trades (Feb to early May, which was basically a deep V).

I did move stops to breakeven (and move them up) more aggressively in the last 33 trades, but mostly because the market has risen too high too fast. From what I've read in such circumstances many traders will tighten stops and lock in profits / reduce risk. On hindsight that worked reasonably given that most of the trades would have been treading water / stopped at a loss had the stops not been moved up.

The other reason I moved stops up aggressively was due to the way I manage my total holding. As mentioned earlier I limit my total risk (i.e. all stops being hit at once) to ~$2K. So moving stops to B/E and profit positions allowed me to increase number of holdings, which seemed wise given the strength of the market.

I do however, fully recognise letting profit run being the most difficult traits in trading.

 

[skc]

I didn't realise they were your first ever 99 trades, skc.
Well done. Just remember the song - One big win, pays for them all.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM

I've reorganised the P/L chart here. It's interesting that...

Best trade = 42% of total profit
Top 3 = 93%
Top 5 = 138%

Would anyone else care to post a similar chart / analysis? I think that will encourage all to "let the profit run".

P.S. Thanks for the video link Knobby - not the biggest fan of country but now has this bloody tune in my head.

 

[Tradesurfer]

I had started a previous thread on asking the question about a better way to judge trading success or behaviors for good trading playing off the golf handicap them. you can check that out.

But one thing I wanted to convey is that I don't believe its always healthy to try to compare to an index such as the S/P.

The reason why I say that is if for the period you were trading a single index was up 20%. Comparing your trading where hopefully you are spreading risk across different areas that aren't all 100% correlated may make your results look worse and incent behaviors that aren't productive long term.

That Index that was up 20%- would you have gone all into that one vehicle and would you have bought at the absolute bottom?

This is why I don't like that comparison and I don't particularly like simply using raw % up or down as a trader who has 100k and puts only 50k into positions and posts a 50% gain would see a portfolio gain of 25% and thus not properly rewarding the result.

One other point, if the market lost 40% as it had at one point and you only lost 10%- comparing your trading to the market one might say they were successfull. But really, with a trend that powerful a trader should have been able to ride the short side.

I have to compliment you though on tracking your trading from the beginning. It is crucial to keep score and to evaluate whether strategies are yielding results that you want or better yielding smaller losses and larger winners.



best of luck

 

[johnnyg]

skc, your using IB and buying the shares outright correct? Any particular reason why instead of going with DMA CFD's? I guess your going to save on interest on open positions, however if your trading 4+ positions @ once it'd leave you stuck without any more capital if another good setup came along?

 

[skc]

skc, your using IB and buying the shares outright correct? Any particular reason why instead of going with DMA CFD's? I guess your going to save on interest on open positions, however if your trading 4+ positions @ once it'd leave you stuck without any more capital if another good setup came along?

$15K is only "notional" capital for the purpose of calculating risk as I dip my toes in stock trading. So I am not really "capital constrained" per se.

I won't list the many advantages of IB over DMA CFD here, although I do use an IG account for shorting ASX stocks.

 

[Nero64]

I won't list the many advantages of IB over DMA CFD here, although I do use an IG account for shorting ASX stocks.

Amen to that!

With IG do you use GSL or do you risk the gaps?

 

[skc]

Amen to that!

With IG do you use GSL or do you risk the gaps?

Rarely use GSL. There are gaps everyday for every stock. Plus my stocks are not normally that tight...

An old thread about GSL

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12177&highlight=guaranteed

 

[beerwm]

what sort of advantages; the way i see it

DMA CFDs-

0.08-0.1% commission
shortable stocks
[slightly limited range]
interest- gain/loss on leveraged positions.

IB-

0.08% commission

 

[skc]

what sort of advantages; the way i see it

DMA CFDs-

0.08-0.1% commission
shortable stocks
[slightly limited range]
interest- gain/loss on leveraged positions.

IB-

0.08% commission

Advantage of IB, aside from saving interest on long positions and lower minimum commission ($6), the biggest thing for me is you actual have real ownership of shares and able to participate in rights and SPP etc. Most CFD providers will calculate some notional cash flow to represent the true economic effect of holding real shares. But I hate to get into an argument with them over such calcuations.

This is getting off topic though...

Now, would anyone else care to share their P/L histogram chart? If you don't want to show your actual P/L amount you can always normalise the numbers (e.g. average P/L = 1, and scale everything base on that).

So seasoned traders, be generous and share

 

[peter2]

I'll share my ASX stock trades (unleveraged) results for the past year.
The first 7 trades were during July08 - Feb09 while the last 53 trades were during Mar09 - Jun09.
[ 60T with 30W (+1.60R) and 30L (-0.58R); Exp = 0.51, profit factor = 2.21 ]

After a review I have graded my performance as C+ and I know what I have to do to improve next year.

 

[skc]

I'll share my ASX stock trades (unleveraged) results for the past year.
The first 7 trades were during July08 - Feb09 while the last 53 trades were during Mar09 - Jun09.
[ 60T with 30W (+1.60R) and 30L (-0.58R); Exp = 0.51, profit factor = 2.21 ]

After a review I have graded my performance as C+ and I know what I have to do to improve next year.

Nice one Peter and thanks for sharing.

Interesting to note that your best trade at 10R was about 1/3 of all profits, and your next 3 best trades at ~3.5R would be another 1/3.

It appears that the 80/20 rule definitely applies

 

[beamstas]

I didn't think IB allowed you to participate in SPP
Learn something new every day

 

[skc]

I didn't think IB allowed you to participate in SPP
Learn something new every day

Yes they do (I hope). I recently instructed them to do so and they replied that they will be carrying out my instructions. Hopefully that means I will actually receive my shares on the issue date.

In fact it will be quite crazy if they don't and you can probably build some arbitrage strategy around that...

 

[skyQuake]

Yes they do (I hope). I recently instructed them to do so and they replied that they will be carrying out my instructions. Hopefully that means I will actually receive my shares on the issue date.

In fact it will be quite crazy if they don't and you can probably build some arbitrage strategy around that...

Confirmed with IB that you can. You give IB instructions, and they do it (using the money from ur account). No paperwork, just smoke and mirrors; no forms to fill

 

[So_Cynical]

skc...assuming its easy for u to do, im interested to know how many of the losing trades u exited, came good later...could u whip up a chart or something?

 

[beamstas]

skc...assuming its easy for u to do, im interested to know how many of the losing trades u exited, came good later...could u whip up a chart or something?

What good would that do?
Even if he showed that it wouldn't be realistic, as future trades couldn't of happened because he would have had his capital tied up in losing trades.

 

[So_Cynical]

What good would that do?

Even if he showed that, it wouldn't be realistic, as future trades couldn't of happened
because he would have had his capital tied up in losing trades.

I figure it would lead to an interesting discussion...also figuring that skc is only entering any
one stock with a small amount of total capital, so would always have something to trade with.

 

[skc]

skc...assuming its easy for u to do, im interested to know how many of the losing trades u exited, came good later...could u whip up a chart or something?

I don't believe this exercise will prove anything. Here are the data anyway, assuming I held on to all the trades I've ever made.

Winners
Closed trade - 48 with P/L = $8220
P/L based on prices today = $8504
Difference = $284

Losers
Closed trades - 51 with P/L = -$6427
P/L based on prices today = -$11600
Difference = -$5173

What this means is that, if I had held on to all my losers, I would be way worse off. Had I held on to all my winners, I would be slightly better off.

This exercise however is not entirely accurate as there are also several stocks which I re-entered, or had both long and short trades.

To me it is quite clear that I need bigger winners, with a avg win / avg loss ratio of only 1.36. The area for improvement does not seem to lie in holding onto the losers. Like to hear your reaction though...

 

[Mr J]

Skc, while it's useful to go back and anaylse your work, don't put too much significance on 99 trades. A bit of extreme shorterm variance either way and your stats would change significantly.