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MTU - M2 Group

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Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

robusta said:
Interesting video on MTU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csk2Tb4rkhI&list=UUZJQzvKpphJJIVFq62xs8vw&index=9

Hopefully I don't get accused of ramping HHL but their youtube site is well worth a look for value investors.

Good video on Sirtex available on the same site.
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I would love to have been a fly on the wall when risk limits to the hunter hall business were being thrashed out. No doubt this re-focusing of what constitutes risk to a funds management business is a result of David Deverall coming on board.

Despite Peter owning nearly half the business he seems to have come around but you can just about see him grimacing when he talks about what he sees as selling down Sirtex for 10 cents in the dollar.

Looks like MTU is now getting the same risk management treatment.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

I expect this to continue up for a little while after the recent break.

Cheers
Country Lad

mtu 25 Jan 13.gif
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

robusta said:
Results out today

Revenue up 65%, NPAT up 47%, EPS up only 16%, dividend up 11%, net debt down from 125.3 m to 116.2 m. Happy days.:)

Here is the presentation on BRR.
http://www.brrmedia.com/event/110005/geoff-horth-ceo
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Adjusted EPS is an important number for MTU as it most closely represents the discretionary cash earnings from the business. They are up 32% to 20.2 cents.

I’m quite comfortable that they will hit 100Million adjusted EBIT for the full year.

EV/EBIT (adj) = 8.5
P/E (adj) = approx 12.

Company is certainly not without risks but has always been fairly cheap (considering the growth) and is still reasonably so – that certainly makes it easier to hold especially as you watch the company strengthen and grow with every report delivered.

This company did one thing very well that is often stuffed up with young growth companies. It transitioned CEO from founding entrepreneur to quality business manager and now has best of both worlds

Revenue growth is probably the weakest link in this report all things considered – Efficiency and cost control is pretty impressive considering the acquisition they had to bed down.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

Muschu said:
Yes certainly one of my best performers in a SMSF.... Seems very strong indeed.
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One of my SMSF better ones too.


craft said:
Adjusted EPS is an important number for MTU as it most closely represents the discretionary cash earnings from the business. They are up 32% to 20.2 cents.

I’m quite comfortable that they will hit 100Million adjusted EBIT for the full year.

EV/EBIT (adj) = 8.5
P/E (adj) = approx 12.

Company is certainly not without risks but has always been fairly cheap (considering the growth) and is still reasonably so – that certainly makes it easier to hold especially as you watch the company strengthen and grow with every report delivered.

This company did one thing very well that is often stuffed up with young growth companies. It transitioned CEO from founding entrepreneur to quality business manager and now has best of both worlds

Revenue growth is probably the weakest link in this report all things considered – Efficiency and cost control is pretty impressive considering the acquisition they had to bed down.
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The charts (tea leaves) have had an inkling that things have been going well for some time now :xyxthumbs

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Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

MTU up 4.5% today on the back of the DODO/EFT acquisition.

XAO was down 2%.

Today was also ex div date for a 10cent fully franked div.

All up a pretty robust initial reaction to the announcement.

Company is claiming 20% EPS accretive for 2014.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

craft said:
MTU up 4.5% today on the back of the DODO/EFT acquisition.

XAO was down 2%.

Today was also ex div date for a 10cent fully franked div.

All up a pretty robust initial reaction to the announcement.

Company is claiming 20% EPS accretive for 2014.
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Luv it :xyxthumbs
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

I have held this stock in the past when it was providing a yield of around 6.6%. Sold it a while back for a nice profit. Definitely has some good results on an ongoing basis. With a current yeild of under 4% and a current liabilities level above current assets, it does not suit my criterea at the moment. At a current price of $4.84 it doesn't seem overly cheap either. As a quality company it will definitely be staying on my watchlist though.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

Normally something with this level of debt would make me run a mile. The revenues from this business do seem to be consistent and perhaps even growing. I think I will hold for a while, collect the dividends and see what happens next.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

I sold my MTU a couple of years ago when I did a portfolio restructure. One of the good stocks I should not have let go. I've put it back on my watch list. I was nervous of the iPrimus acquisition as iPrimus was experiencing a high churn rate at the time MTU took them over.

Telecoms is an interesting industry, particularly with the coming of the NBN. To what degree are telecoms companies going to be resellers of a commodity (the NBN, Optus mobile)? To what degree are they going to be able to value add, innovate and service niches? Its am industry where although demand may continue to grow for years to come, margins may continue to fall as well.

Another challenge is that up until now MTU have been growing through acquisitions (low hanging fruit) - something they have been very deft at in terms of making acquisitions that are highly earnings accretive. At some stage they are going to have to concentrate more on organic growth of market share - something harder to do. I would suggest that they are going to have to invest into branding to achieve this. I don't consider any of their brands to be very strong - particularly in the retail market.

I think the current share prices represents reasonable value. It's not overly cheap, but looking at forward earnings forecasts you can expect a growing dividend and the price represents a reasonable yield plus growth potential.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

tinhat said:
Telecoms is an interesting industry, particularly with the coming of the NBN. To what degree are telecoms companies going to be resellers of a commodity (the NBN, Optus mobile)? To what degree are they going to be able to value add, innovate and service niches? Its am industry where although demand may continue to grow for years to come, margins may continue to fall as well.

Another challenge is that up until now MTU have been growing through acquisitions (low hanging fruit) - something they have been very deft at in terms of making acquisitions that are highly earnings accretive. At some stage they are going to have to concentrate more on organic growth of market share - something harder to do. I would suggest that they are going to have to invest into branding to achieve this. I don't consider any of their brands to be very strong - particularly in the retail market.
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The majority of revenue from these internet service providers is fairly 'sticky'. Many people set up their plan and unless there is a compelling reason to change they are still paying the same company every month ten years later. You are right this does make it difficult to grow organically however.
It will be interesting to see how things go with the supposedly level playing field from the NBN. Telstra will probably have some sort of advantage being the incumbent and also by bundling internet plans with their superior mobile coverage. Optus, IINET and TPG are not going to sit by idly either they will be looking for more growth.

Anyway should be interesting to watch how MTU go from here.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

A selloff top on volume today.

Things don't go straight up forever, but it has been a nice trade.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

robusta said:
Optus, IINET and TPG are not going to sit by idly either they will be looking for more growth.

Anyway should be interesting to watch how MTU go from here.
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Industry consolidation remains open also. I offloaded 20% of my MTU just today. I am not a trader as such but when something runs to the top of my portfolio and stretches the boundaries, I rebalance. MTU was among a few, MMS being another while we are among the Ms.
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

They say "the trend is your friend", in fact I'm reading a book that spends the first 3+ chapters saying that, briefly mentions Elliott Wave theory half way through & that's where I'm up to. If there's no pearls of wisdom in the last half then I'll be reviewing "Mastering Trade Selection & Management" as a 1 star out of 5 waste of my time & money.
Back on the subject at hand
mtu_ax11jan13_to_21may13.png

PS If I'd bought at "$4.60 then "the trend is (really truly my) your friend":rolleyes:
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

A wonderful performer which I got into (without skill) at $3.04. Won't mention the losers ......
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

I have outlined my trade in this one in the P&F thread but thought I should post the charts here as well.

The second chart changed the box size from 4 to 6 in line with the increase in share price.

Cheers
Country Lad

Chart 1 MTU box size 4.gif

Chart 2 MTU box size 6.gif
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

Market sentiment changed to strongly negative, sell 3.72 times buy after 30 minutes and algorithm showing continuing sell bias. Sold at average $5.94.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

Sorry Country Lad, I must have jinxed it, also IIN & TPM (TPG) took a complete pounding :(
 
Re: MTU - M2 Telecommunications Group

Open 6.18, High 6.18, Low 5.19 :eek: Don't see that very often, wish I had a trigger to buy at 5.19- foresight is/would be a wonderful thing :2twocents
 
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