MRM - MMA Offshore

[Value Collector]

But let's not ahead of ourselves and be happy with $1 a share.

I am pretty patient, I am never afraid to put my money to work for 3 years if it means a doubling or tripling of value, that's the only way I know how to play this game.

I think given time the share price will more than reflect the value of those ships and port side land, this current shortage of contracts is going to be temporary, especially because work in the fields has to be done prior to delivering gas.

 

[joeno]

What do you guys think about the recent plunge in MRM shares?

 

[pixel]

What do you guys think about the recent plunge in MRM shares?

I am tempted to consider this a fairly solid support. Maybe give it a week to prove a triple bottom?

 

[skc]

What do you guys think about the recent plunge in MRM shares?

Operationally nothing surprising... things are challenging and will remain so for some time. That has been the prevailing condition so not really unexpected.

However, the update highlighted difficulties in selling MRM's fleet to repay debt, putting pressure on the balance sheet. It mentioned that it is in discussion with lenders which is never a good thing to mention. The operational cashflow will be a key thing to watch.... namely, can they fund the operations and the financial obligations without more equity / debt? If not, perhaps there will a capital raising (forced by the banks may be) in the near future.

 

[The Triangle]

Operationally nothing surprising... things are challenging and will remain so for some time. That has been the prevailing condition so not really unexpected.

However, the update highlighted difficulties in selling MRM's fleet to repay debt, putting pressure on the balance sheet. It mentioned that it is in discussion with lenders which is never a good thing to mention. The operational cashflow will be a key thing to watch.... namely, can they fund the operations and the financial obligations without more equity / debt? If not, perhaps there will a capital raising (forced by the banks may be) in the near future.

Operating cash flow plus what they have in cash at the moment should be fine enough to keep operations funded for a a few years. They previously flagged capex moving forward would be 'minimal' (I presume that to be less than 10 million?). I think they will end up with minor losses due to depreciation, but manage to keep positive cash flows. EBITDA is still reasonable (even assuming further deterioration) to cover interest and operations.

They also flagged discussions with lenders over a year ago, so it is a concern, but I think it has been well factored in to the SP. MRM will have a solid 18 to 24 months to trade themselves out of this mess, which will be dependent on oil and offshore activity - something which they have no control over. If conditions don't improve by late 2017/early 2018 then I think they will be in fire-sale of asset territory rather than capraising/recap territory. Probably still easier to sell ships than shares.

 

[luutzu]

A cap raising to raise only some $90m with $30m to repay the lenders and $60m to buy a big middle finger to Halom.

You want me fired did ya? Better make sure your holdings were registered in the ANZ and you have more cash on hand my Singaporean opportunist a hole. - Webb (as imagined by me)

See how the market price goes at reopen. Might pick up some more. It's only money, right?

 

[luutzu]

For those interested with MRM's development...

Halom sent a complaint to the Takeover Panel a day after MRM's board decided to raise new equity and (not at all) dilute Halom's current holdings.

MRM came back saying that well, since the panel haven't (had the time) to issue any decision, we've done the institutional raising so that's too late. And until there's an order, we're going ahead with the retail offer, so suck on that.

Here's my theory... Halom is going to wait until the cash from the raising settles into MRM's account, then it'll make a takeover offer for the whole company at, say 30 cents a share. pump it up a bit more to ease shareholders pain.

Hopefully the M.E shareholders currently at 5% would want to counter offer, maybe they'll just work with Halom and divvy up... In the end, Mr Kum will get to kick Weber in the azz for trying to be smart and make a fool out of his Halom.

The games and ego of the big boys ey.

 

[Trav.]

Monthly competition stock pick

I have had this one on my radar for a while and noticed a huge volume spike on the 26/11. MACD appears to be turning the corner so currently trading around 17c and has plenty of upside circa 30c

@tech/a thanks for your post last night and I will will comment there later but looking at this chart below it appears to be be another example of what you were trying to point out. I have read about VSA a couple of times but I am a little slow on the uptake there so maybe with a few good live examples it will help to bash the knowledge into this old head.

 

[tech/a]

Trav

So I went over and checked news on the Share.
Looking for a reason for the volume spike.
There has been a new substantial share holder
come into play.
So Id have this on watch. With no other news
the new holder must have some confidence in
growth from somewhere. If something pops up
we will see it in price. Until then I personally would
just watch it from the side.

I don't concern myself with oscillators--they are simply a
consequence of price action not a leader to it.

 

[luutzu]

Trav

So I went over and checked news on the Share.
Looking for a reason for the volume spike.
There has been a new substantial share holder
come into play.
So Id have this on watch. With no other news
the new holder must have some confidence in
growth from somewhere. If something pops up
we will see it in price. Until then I personally would
just watch it from the side.

I don't concern myself with oscillators--they are simply a
consequence of price action not a leader to it.

I think there's two new substantial shareholders.

Two directors' related trusts are buying. Though not much really.

Things might be looking up for this one over next year or two. If it doesn't, MRM might go down the tube... and if it does, I think the entire offshore logistics/OSV industry might disappear too.

I mean, MRM is one of the few in its industry that managed to barely scrape through the current/recent downturn. With oilers breaking even at about $30/bbl, them being in profit past couple years better translate into feeding their contractors else they all go under.

 

[Ann]

For those interested with MRM's development...

Halom sent a complaint to the Takeover Panel a day after MRM's board decided to raise new equity and (not at all) dilute Halom's current holdings.

MRM came back saying that well, since the panel haven't (had the time) to issue any decision, we've done the institutional raising so that's too late. And until there's an order, we're going ahead with the retail offer, so suck on that.

Here's my theory... Halom is going to wait until the cash from the raising settles into MRM's account, then it'll make a takeover offer for the whole company at, say 30 cents a share. pump it up a bit more to ease shareholders pain.

Hopefully the M.E shareholders currently at 5% would want to counter offer, maybe they'll just work with Halom and divvy up... In the end, Mr Kum will get to kick Weber in the azz for trying to be smart and make a fool out of his Halom.

The games and ego of the big boys ey.

...another scenario could be the big buy in could be to have the $$ to keep selling it down to a below bargain basement price and just scoop it up. No idea, just a concussed brain musing!
The chart looks weak, stuck under the 100% fibonacci line with only 0.13c support coming from back June the 25th 2003 which was when it was just coming out of its churning stage. (churning is when stocks aren't actually trading they sort of just stay alive by small sales and buys sometimes daily sometimes less. A churned stock has a different look to a traded stock. I will show you all one day. Probably sooner rather than later if I have time and feel up to it).

 

[luutzu]

...another scenario could be the big buy in could be to have the $$ to keep selling it down to a below bargain basement price and just scoop it up. No idea, just a concussed brain musing!
The chart looks weak, stuck under the 100% fibonacci line with only 0.13c support coming from back June the 25th 2003 which was when it was just coming out of its churning stage. (churning is when stocks aren't actually trading they sort of just stay alive by small sales and buys sometimes daily sometimes less. A churned stock has a different look to a traded stock. I will show you all one day. Probably sooner rather than later if I have time and feel up to it).

View attachment 90577

MRM escaped an attempted takeover from Halom. I think its second or third largest shareholder's CEO is the current Chairman. So there's definitely value there.

They've scraped through their credit crunch, the bankers are somewhat understanding... with offshore projects expected to rise, being one of the few established and experienced operator still standing might do them well in the upturn.

 

[Ann]

...another scenario could be the big buy in could be to have the $$ to keep selling it down to a below bargain basement price and just scoop it up. No idea, just a concussed brain musing!
The chart looks weak, stuck under the 100% fibonacci line with only 0.13c support coming from back June the 25th 2003 which was when it was just coming out of its churning stage. (churning is when stocks aren't actually trading they sort of just stay alive by small sales and buys sometimes daily sometimes less. A churned stock has a different look to a traded stock. I will show you all one day. Probably sooner rather than later if I have time and feel up to it).

You know, if what I have imagines turns out to be true and it does disappear like a Mermaid underwater, it could kill a lot of sailors who are onboard, so to speak! I have no idea if it is, it is just me looking at it thinking there may be something to look at here. Maybe by the Federal Police, don't know who, if it does shuffle off this mortal coil. I am thinking if people look at this and see a 'real business' that can be understood as Buffet describes and suggests stay in it for life, there will be a lot of people who will buy into this and stay there. I bought into this when it was doing a long sideways consolidation, then it got dumped fast. It fell below my exit line so I buggered off. Didn't get too badly hurt, made me remember it though.

So what I am seeing in my vivid and concussed imagination is a company with a great product, assured of success raises heaps of money by public company, buys all it needs and then slowly sells the company down to nothing, gets taken over by a private concern and steps back on shore with a big smile while all the sailors have dived over board to join the Mermaid.

What I thought I would do was to add the names of the directors and their purchases .....just for the record......in case they disappear.
DATE DIRECTOR NUMBER PRICE AMOUNT
05/12/2014 Mark Bradley 250,000 $1.320 $330,000
19/11/2014 Eve Howell 40,000 $1.680 $67,200
19/11/2014 Mark Bradley 250,000 $1.660 $415,000
18/11/2014 Tony Howarth 100,000 $1.653 $165,270
29/09/2014 Mark Bradley 250,000 $1.980 $495,000
Those were all purchases, no sales.

Directors & Executives (current) *
NAME TITLE DATE OF APPT
Tony Howarth Non Exec Chairman 05/07/2001
Jeffrey Webber Managing Director 31/12/2002
Peter Raynor CFO 13/06/2005
Eve Howell Non Exec Director 27/02/2012
Mark Bradley Non Exec Director 22/09/2000
Andrew Edwards Non Exec Director 01/12/2009
Chiang Gnee Non Exec Director 05/07/2012
*Positions may have changed

These are the past directors in case these names require any scrutiny.
Directors & Executives (former)
NAME TITLE DATE OF APPOINTMENT DATE OF RESIGNATION
James Carver Executive Director 29/06/1998 15/07/2013
Jeffrey Mews Non Exec Director 12/08/1998 24/11/2009
Alan Birchmore Chairman 12/08/1998 14/02/2007
Peter Ming Non Exec Director 27/11/2002 24/11/2005
Chan Teun Alternate Director 27/11/2002 24/11/2005
Richard Reid Non Exec Director 22/09/2000 17/11/2004
Christopher Sutherland Non Exec Director 19/11/2003 04/03/2004
Derrice-Ann Dillon Executive Director 01/01/2001

I am not for a moment suggesting these people have done anything wrong. It is just when companies go ta-tas there is no record for us mere mortals to refer to. The brokers have a big book, which name escapes me for the moment, with all sorts of links and information which makes for fascinating reading. I spent hours reading it, OMG the information in it was simply amazing. It used to be in the reference section in the library but then it all went digitalized and none of this information is available for the mug punter like you and me now. In fact being digitalized I guess with every update all the past 'sins' are wiped out. But what is seen, can't be unseen!

 

[luutzu]

You know, if what I have imagines turns out to be true and it does disappear like a Mermaid underwater, it could kill a lot of sailors who are onboard, so to speak! I have no idea if it is, it is just me looking at it thinking there may be something to look at here. Maybe by the Federal Police, don't know who, if it does shuffle off this mortal coil. I am thinking if people look at this and see a 'real business' that can be understood as Buffet describes and suggests stay in it for life, there will be a lot of people who will buy into this and stay there. I bought into this when it was doing a long sideways consolidation, then it got dumped fast. It fell below my exit line so I buggered off. Didn't get too badly hurt, made me remember it though.

So what I am seeing in my vivid and concussed imagination is a company with a great product, assured of success raises heaps of money by public company, buys all it needs and then slowly sells the company down to nothing, gets taken over by a private concern and steps back on shore with a big smile while all the sailors have dived over board to join the Mermaid.

What I thought I would do was to add the names of the directors and their purchases .....just for the record......in case they disappear.
DATE DIRECTOR NUMBER PRICE AMOUNT
05/12/2014 Mark Bradley 250,000 $1.320 $330,000
19/11/2014 Eve Howell 40,000 $1.680 $67,200
19/11/2014 Mark Bradley 250,000 $1.660 $415,000
18/11/2014 Tony Howarth 100,000 $1.653 $165,270
29/09/2014 Mark Bradley 250,000 $1.980 $495,000
Those were all purchases, no sales.

Directors & Executives (current) *
NAME TITLE DATE OF APPT
Tony Howarth Non Exec Chairman 05/07/2001
Jeffrey Webber Managing Director 31/12/2002
Peter Raynor CFO 13/06/2005
Eve Howell Non Exec Director 27/02/2012
Mark Bradley Non Exec Director 22/09/2000
Andrew Edwards Non Exec Director 01/12/2009
Chiang Gnee Non Exec Director 05/07/2012
*Positions may have changed

These are the past directors in case these names require any scrutiny.
Directors & Executives (former)
NAME TITLE DATE OF APPOINTMENT DATE OF RESIGNATION
James Carver Executive Director 29/06/1998 15/07/2013
Jeffrey Mews Non Exec Director 12/08/1998 24/11/2009
Alan Birchmore Chairman 12/08/1998 14/02/2007
Peter Ming Non Exec Director 27/11/2002 24/11/2005
Chan Teun Alternate Director 27/11/2002 24/11/2005
Richard Reid Non Exec Director 22/09/2000 17/11/2004
Christopher Sutherland Non Exec Director 19/11/2003 04/03/2004
Derrice-Ann Dillon Executive Director 01/01/2001

I am not for a moment suggesting these people have done anything wrong. It is just when companies go ta-tas there is no record for us mere mortals to refer to. The brokers have a big book, which name escapes me for the moment, with all sorts of links and information which makes for fascinating reading. I spent hours reading it, OMG the information in it was simply amazing. It used to be in the reference section in the library but then it all went digitalized and none of this information is available for the mug punter like you and me now. In fact being digitalized I guess with every update all the past 'sins' are wiped out. But what is seen, can't be unseen!

I hope you're wrong but yea...

The board and management did buy at the height of the oil boom. Not sure if the boom/bust is always in hindsight, but I guess the Singaporean running Halom know when to sell and when to reload.

But to their credit, they managed to escaped the takeover and screw Halom at the same time. So that was quite impressive.

 

[Ann]

But to their credit, they managed to escaped the takeover and screw Halom at the same time. So that was quite impressive

....or looking at it the other way luu, he might have been assisting them to get the price down a bit and shake a few sailors overboard, without that dramatic dump I might still own it....who knows? Let me tell you, a bad case of concussion does wierd things to the brain. One is not allowed to think (critically as in learn something) so all sorts of thoughts do free-float.

 

[luutzu]

....or looking at it the other way luu, he might have been assisting them to get the price down a bit and shake a few sailors overboard, without that dramatic dump I might still own it....who knows? Let me tell you, a bad case of concussion does wierd things to the brain. One is not allowed to think (critically as in learn something) so all sorts of thoughts do free-float.

Yea, a fair few would have been burnt in the downturn. I was luckier in that I got in at 40c. Managed to average down to about 21c now... Cigar butt smoking can be bad for you

My thinking (prayers?) is that it'll come back up with a vengeance... soon... enough... any year now.

 

[Ann]

Yea, a fair few would have been burnt in the downturn. I was luckier in that I got in at 40c. Managed to average down to about 21c now... Cigar butt smoking can be bad for you

My thinking (prayers?) is that it'll come back up with a vengeance... soon... enough... any year now.

I really hope so luu, I think the market needs quality business which are in for the long haul. I first bought it because it had a DRP (Dividend Re-Investment Plan), it actually had tangible assets and a real business going on and I had had every intention of staying in for the long haul and just let the DRP do its thing over the years. (Yeah OK, I always do a bit of fundamentals if I am actually going to buy into a stock, it isn't all TA with me). If our markets keep getting trashed by junk, pump and dumps that get promoted on forums like this, then the mumsandads will give up on investing in the markets, buy into an index fund and maybe lose all their money if it goes belly up. I shall be watching this one with interest and really hope the directors are in there doing battle against the bad guys. Time will tell.

 

[Ann]

I decided to put this into the June Comp, on reflection I have no idea why when I really look at this stock. I think I just like its little boats....call it a boat bias!

MRM has been bobbing along in the shallows since the end of 2015 and I have had it on my watch list after I sold it waaay back. I had a fibbo line drawn on a longer term basis but when I opened it up for the long term view today there must have been a stock adjustment so the fibbo was completely off its line, so fibbo gone.

Looking at the 12 month chart I can see a falling overhead resistance line coming from early 2016, there is an overhead horizontal resistance line at .225c coming from March 2017 and a shorter term horizontal overhead resistance at .19c coming from November 2018. The Twiggs Weekly Money Flow is showing a slight rise but is still traveling in minus levels. The Twiggs Daily Money Flow looks a bit more optimistic as it hits the 0% line. It is currently sitting above the 21dsma and 50dsma but the 200dsma is bearing down on it creating yet another overhead resistance.

One positive aspect is the double rounded bottom, these can be quite bullish but it needs to get above the overheads. I think this stock is destined for mediocrity as my entry in the June Comp!
12 month chart...

And a view of the five year chart. Not a very pretty sight.

 

[peter2]

@Ann. I think you noticed the "boats" rising with the tide. IMO your bias is for rising markets and that's what caught your eye on MRM.

There's no doubt that MRM was thumped by the falling oil prices and the poor trading conditions for oil related services that followed. The company was caught out and had to sell most of their assets (ships).

Price has been rolling along the bottom of the charts since late 2015. It's only recently that there's signs of rising prices. After such a large fall in price there's going to be lots of overhead resistance. Are these old levels going to be relevant? How many long term investors are likely to be still holding. Share price dropped from 3.75 to 0.13. Who's going to be still hanging on?

This company had to start again. New bankers, new investors, new business goals, new hopes. I'd treat this chart as new and delete those longer term lines. A pure spec opportunity. Damn, that I can't use it for the June comp. The ASX 40P portfolio does have a position in MRM.

 

[Ann]

I think you noticed the "boats" rising with the tide. IMO your bias is for rising markets and that's what caught your eye on MRM.

This is very true Peter! Although I have had MRM on watch for years and what caught my eye was the double rounded bottom. (No boy jokes please fellas!)

After such a large fall in price there's going to be lots of overhead resistance. Are these old levels going to be relevant?

In my experience the older the resistance/support line, the stronger it seems to get particularly a falling overhead resistance line.

This company had to start again. New bankers, new investors, new business goals, new hopes. I'd treat this chart as new and delete those longer term lines.

I am very respectful of all long term lines. I got taken out by a long term overhead falling resistance line in 2015 (AMP) which began in 2001. I should have known better, I had the line drawn and knew it was dangerous, but I foolishly thought it would be different this time and had told myself a story. I got what I deserved, a solid slap. The price tried to get above that same falling line in March 2018, failed and fell like a stone below its long term support coming from 2003.

Damn, that I can't use it for the June comp.

Sorry Peter, I am happy to offer it to you for July if you still want it.

This is the chart I am looking at. I am not concerned about any overheads from 2013 when it was in the mid $3 range, they are for a higher level much further along. Currently the resistance from those days sits at $2.30, so well out of the picture at this stage.

I am interested in the red falling overhead resistance line coming from May 2016. It is not a very old falling resistance but it is certainly something which would give me pause. Yesterday it overcome the 200dsma which is very heartening. It may float right on through it but I would certainly have my lifebuoy ready in case it hits the rocks!