MRE - Minara Resources
- Thread starter Gordon Gecko
- Start date
-
- Tags
- minara resources mre
Prelim final report out today, price has been hanging around the .90c mark for a while. Dividends will be less than last payment
http://www.minara.com.au/files/docs/312_Preliminary_Final_Report_and_2010_Full_Year_Accounts.pdf
thoughts?
http://www.minara.com.au/files/docs/312_Preliminary_Final_Report_and_2010_Full_Year_Accounts.pdf
thoughts?
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Last payment was a return of capital (comes off the cost base) this payment is a return to fully franked dividends
and a nice healthy one at that...first dividend in 3 years, last being in March 08.With the Nickel price sitting comfortably at around 28K USD/tn and MRE sitting on around 250 million in cash with no debt...i think its reasonably likely that holders can now expect a full return to normalcy and regular Interim and final dividends.
:jump:
A annual dividend of 13 cents gross would give me a yield of around 15.8%
- Joined
- 21 January 2010
- Posts
- 113
- Reactions
- 0
Good to see you holding So_Cynical.
Agreed that we're in a strong position to either make an acquisition or pay out distributions.
At HotCopper we discussed that sulphur prices are up which should increase our expenses somewhat, but that can be offset by the projected higher production. We may see costs of $5.25-5.50/lb if we achieve 35,000 tonnes of production. With today's nickel price at $13/lb that leaves a solid profit margin of $7.50/lb.
At 35,000 tonnes of production and us owning 60% of that, we'll produce 42,000,000 lbs of nickel. 3.5m lbs per month * $7.5 profit margin = $26m gross profit for every month that we average $13/lb nickel prices (or almost $1m per day). After tax that might be $18m net profit ie 1.7% return per month ie 20% pa if we were to average $13/lb for an entire year.
Biggest assumptions: $5.50/lb costs, 35,000 tonnes of production, ~$1.00 AUD/USD.
At $0.90 I consider this good value, at $1.00+ the risks start to outweigh the benefits for me since I can't guess future nickel prices or AUD/USD, but at $0.90 we have a big safety net - even at $10.00/lb nickel prices we still have a good profit margin.
Agreed that we're in a strong position to either make an acquisition or pay out distributions.
At HotCopper we discussed that sulphur prices are up which should increase our expenses somewhat, but that can be offset by the projected higher production. We may see costs of $5.25-5.50/lb if we achieve 35,000 tonnes of production. With today's nickel price at $13/lb that leaves a solid profit margin of $7.50/lb.
At 35,000 tonnes of production and us owning 60% of that, we'll produce 42,000,000 lbs of nickel. 3.5m lbs per month * $7.5 profit margin = $26m gross profit for every month that we average $13/lb nickel prices (or almost $1m per day). After tax that might be $18m net profit ie 1.7% return per month ie 20% pa if we were to average $13/lb for an entire year.
Biggest assumptions: $5.50/lb costs, 35,000 tonnes of production, ~$1.00 AUD/USD.
At $0.90 I consider this good value, at $1.00+ the risks start to outweigh the benefits for me since I can't guess future nickel prices or AUD/USD, but at $0.90 we have a big safety net - even at $10.00/lb nickel prices we still have a good profit margin.
Last payment was a return of capital (comes off the cost base) this payment is a return to fully franked dividends
With the Nickel price sitting comfortably at around 28K USD/tn and MRE sitting on around 250 million in cash with no debt...i think its reasonably likely that holders can now expect a full return to normalcy and regular Interim and final dividends.
:jump:
A annual dividend of 13 cents gross would give me a yield of around 15.8%
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Yep im thinking along the same lines (great minds think alike
)...MRE is a Nickel price play with a little currency thrown in to the mix, anything over $1 and id be placing a high ball sell order to take some profit and lower my exposure...MRE is my 3 largest $ holding, i really need to get rid of some of my expensive shares.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Minara's largest share holder (70%) and JV partner in the Murrin Murrin mine (40%) Glencore is floating.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/ar...-Londons-largest-float.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Old news i know but the implications have yet to be discussed here...so will they or wont they take over Minara? if you add a 20% premium to the current MRE share price of 0.82 its only going to cost Glencore 350 odd million to take the whole company.
With MRE having 200 odd million in the bank it would seem to be a very cheap price to pay...so if there was a T/O perhaps it would have to be at a much higher price? maybe 1.10 or 1.20 per share. :dunno:
Thoughts anyone?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/ar...-Londons-largest-float.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Old news i know but the implications have yet to be discussed here...so will they or wont they take over Minara? if you add a 20% premium to the current MRE share price of 0.82 its only going to cost Glencore 350 odd million to take the whole company.
With MRE having 200 odd million in the bank it would seem to be a very cheap price to pay...so if there was a T/O perhaps it would have to be at a much higher price? maybe 1.10 or 1.20 per share. :dunno:
Thoughts anyone?
- Joined
- 21 January 2010
- Posts
- 113
- Reactions
- 0
Although of the $200m in the bank, they already own 70% of it. Only $60m of that is due to the other shareholders.
They have to make the offer compelling enough to convince 2/3 of the remaining shareholders to sell, so they can reach 90% and do a forced takeover.
Would 2/3 of shareholders accept $0.98? I am guessing there is a fair chance, but make it $1.10 and they'll be more sure to reach 90%.
But will they make a takeover offer? I have no idea. It's possible, but I'm not expecting it.
$0.05 dividends are enough to keep me a happy holder.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Some more interesting Glencore news cut and pasted from Businesspectator.com.au
businessspectator.com.au said:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...1-bln-in-London-HK-FW66D?OpenDocument&src=rab
And they are expected to lift there investments in companys they already have an interest in...C&P from the same businessspectator story.
businessspectator.com.au said:
While i'am also happy with the 0.05 dividends i really do need to free up some capital and take a profit and would really like to be doing that at above $1.10 per share.
- Joined
- 21 January 2010
- Posts
- 113
- Reactions
- 0
This video says Glencore is likely to take over Minara http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/DealsTV?ReadForm&vid=8CEE94FDBD3E20AFCA25787000059103
This could be good.
This could be good.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Glencore have been shopping and MRE is on the shopping list.
Glencore now holds 71.89% of MRE according to today's "Change in substantial holding" announcement..so an increase of 1.26% ~ sustained buying over the last 2 weeks at prices from 0.68 to 0.74 CPS.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110629/pdf/41zhcsc8bsyy99.pdf
- Joined
- 21 January 2010
- Posts
- 113
- Reactions
- 0
Glencore have been shopping and MRE is on the shopping list.
Glencore now holds 71.89% of MRE according to today's "Change in substantial holding" announcement..so an increase of 1.26% ~ sustained buying over the last 2 weeks at prices from 0.68 to 0.74 CPS.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110629/pdf/41zhcsc8bsyy99.pdf
Shhh, keep quiet for a few more days so I can top up.
I will be buying tomorrow morning.
This is their first time buying in years...so this looks like a turning point, a pretty quick one too...
- Joined
- 5 May 2010
- Posts
- 269
- Reactions
- 1
What do you guys think of the significance of the announcement today re: acid plant offline? Not a holder but I'm in the queue at .74
- Joined
- 21 January 2010
- Posts
- 113
- Reactions
- 0
I don't know how long it'll take to fix, or how much it'll cost, but I feel that with $200m+ cash at bank it's not a big deal. And I can't imagine it'll influence Glencore's intentions...
I averaged up with a buy at $0.745 after the Glencore announcement. My intention is to stash them away for 12 months, reel in a nice $0.05+ in dividends and hope for a takeover at a 20-30% premium!
It seems safe enough buying and holding, since MRE's break even is around $6.00/lb if I remember correctly, with nickel now at $10.80/lb. Nickel Pig Iron is break even at $10-11/lb (I think) which in my mind puts a floor under the nickel price at $9-10/lb.
- Joined
- 5 May 2010
- Posts
- 269
- Reactions
- 1
And the takeover is in at 87c..
Little disappointing since I bought at $0.765 and have only held for about 2 months. Not sure whether to wait for this TO or just sell tomorrow and look to getting into something else.
Edit: No dividend either
- Joined
- 21 January 2010
- Posts
- 113
- Reactions
- 0
I sold two thirds of mine today for $0.875. The others will like go soon.
~15% in 2 months is good for you.
~15% in 2 months is good for you.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
The average price of my MRE holding (4 parcels) is 0.85 CPS a minuscule profit considering ive been in since mid 08...thank the ASX gods for the return of capital and the last dividend for giving me a roughly break even return.
The fact that im out of this position at break even is totally due to my perseverance in averaging down, having the commitment, funds and sufficiently large comfort zone to do so....was really hoping for a SP above $1 a share for an exit with dignity.
Murrin Murrin is yet another great Aussie asset gone.
a minuscule profit considering ive been in since mid 08...thank the ASX gods for the return of capital and the last dividend for giving me a roughly break even return.The fact that im out of this position at break even is totally due to my perseverance in averaging down, having the commitment, funds and sufficiently large comfort zone to do so....was really hoping for a SP above $1 a share for an exit with dignity.
Murrin Murrin is yet another great Aussie asset gone.
- Joined
- 5 May 2010
- Posts
- 269
- Reactions
- 1
Did you also sell today So_C?
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
No im holding out for 0.89 silly i know
in reality ill prob take the 0.875 tomorrow or on Friday as i have 2 portfolio stocks that are still trading at close to there last dip lows that i would love dearly to re-enter now...and selling out of MRE would free up a rather large chunk of cash for me.At today's close MRE is 7.34% of my portfolio by value.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
No im holding out for 0.89 silly i know
At today's close MRE is 7.34% of my portfolio by value.
Out very very late today at 0.88 (3.9% profit) ~ took 2 days to get my 0.88 sell order filled but eventually it happened...i feel i should reinvest this capital in another mining stock, keep the money at risk but having trouble finding value in any mining stock.
Anyway a chart of my total MRE experience below....taught me alot MRE did, taught me to keep on buying when the price falls, taught me how to rescue a position.
~
Attachments
So is everyone getting out of this one? I am reading that if Glencore acquire more than 90% they can force you to sell if you have not already. My average price is still a bit higher than whats on offer so I am not so keen to sell, I guess I am hoping or dreaming that if Glencore take over they have plans, if not why take over? and also how likely is that they get the percentage power they need in order to make you sell"?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...70-cents-7-cents-vs-glencores-87-cents-offer/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...70-cents-7-cents-vs-glencores-87-cents-offer/
