MPO - Molopo Gas

A nice jump of around 10% in the share price today on no new news, or should I say no news that the market has been made aware of Volume was above average as well. Have they sold some non-core assetts for $$'s or maybe something from the drillbit or dewatering pump. Time will tell

From Getagraph

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Friday 13 Nov. 2009]:
(Autocomments)

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by 4.73% yesterday from AUD 1.48 to AUD 1.55 , and has now gained 5 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 14.81% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,04 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,69 million shares for approx. AUD 2,61 million.

3 MONTH TREND
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 25.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.58 and AUD 2.08 at the end of this period.
Support/Resistance
Support 1: AUD 1.45 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 1.30 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 1.20 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

My additional comments:
It was really pleasing to see the strength of the buying that continued today. The weekly chart must look fantastic with the stock rising 19.5c for the week. No resistance points remain and the very bullish re-rating of the stock that has got underway seems destined to continue for some time. I also note that the expected trading range has started to increase as would be expected.

From Getagraph

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Monday 16 Nov. 2009]:



MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by 2.58% yesterday from AUD 1.55 to AUD 1.59 , and has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and a day or two with fall should be expected. In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 8 out of 10 days, and is up by 22.31% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,35 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 2,04 million shares for approx. AUD 3,25 million.



3 MONTH TREND

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 1.67 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 25.8% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.60 and AUD 2.10 at the end of this period.



Support/Resistance |s

Support 1: AUD 1.45 Resistance 1: AUD N/A

Support 2: AUD 1.30 Resistance 2: AUD N/A

Support 3: AUD 1.20 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

From Getagraph:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Tuesday 17 Nov. 2009]:

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED fell by -3.77% last day from AUD 1.59 to AUD 1.53. . In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 14.18% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -0,78 million shares and in total there was bought and sold 1,26 million shares for approx. AUD 1,92 million.

3 MONTH TREND
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 25.7% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.61 and AUD 2.11 at the end of this period.
Support/Resistance
Support 1: AUD 1.45 Resistance 1: AUD 1.56
Support 2: AUD 1.30 Resistance 2: AUD 1.60
Support 3: AUD 1.20 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

I've been following MPO since march, got in around 86cents

Im sticking with the oil and gas companies at the moment.

This stock tends to spike high, then drop and consolidate, and then spike higher again. Bit choppy, and slowly grinding higher.

I did not post yesterday's comments as they were fairly much a repeat of the day before, and did not want to bore anyone.

However with the change in direction today, I think that it is interesting to post tonight's commentary.

I think that we saw the bottom at 1.47 and that we are now heading north, and possibly very rapidly. I note the resistance pointed to by Getagraph and have also relayed to me a commentary from a noted chartist Regina Meani. She noted that if it broke $1.60 that MPO could head to $2.20, but if it failed to find support below, then it was possible to fall to $1. Apart from a couple of 100k parcels that were offered for sale this p.m. (which I think were loaded in to hold the stock back) there is not a lot of stock on offer below $1.60 (about 100k).

I am of the opinion that if we do not see major resistance early next week, that MPO will be testing new yearly highs before the week is finished. Time will tell.



SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Friday 20 Nov. 2009]:

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by 3.33% yesterday from AUD 1.50 to AUD 1.55 In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 13.97% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 25 889 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 815 098 shares for approx. AUD 1,26 million.


3 MONTH TREND

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 24.6% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.61 and AUD 2.11 at the end of this period.



Support/Resistance |s

Support 1: AUD 1.45 Resistance 1: AUD 1.56

Support 2: AUD 1.30 Resistance 2: AUD 1.60

Support 3: AUD 1.20 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

Appointment of Canadian CEO and valuation pts

From Pukin on another site (and I am sure that he will not mind me posting it here:

I am getting the feeling that MPO's Canadian play is starting to snowball pretty rapidly, and that is why the share price is showing such strength. With MPO clearly flagging it is pursuing a Canadian Listing, it is pretty clear that finally some serious consideration needs to be given to what the Canadian acreage is worth!

So just using MPO's AGM presentation and the figures from that:

Utica Shale - 375,000 net acres highly prospective x $500US per acre = $187.5m. That leaves approximately 1.8m of the acre out at this stage.

Oil plays - We are seeing deals go through that are 6 times the price that MPO paid for its acreage. MPO got spearfish at C$236/per acre with deals now at C$1300/acre. MPO got bakken at C$321 per acre with deals now at C$2000 per acre, with one at C$4000 per acre! MPO paid C$27.4m for both plays there, so six times that amount is $164.4m.

That gives a total of $351.9m, in a mixture of Canadian / US dollars. Since we are within 10% of parity with each, I haven't bothered converting to Aussie dollars.

With approximately 200m shares on issue, including unlisted, that makes Canada worth $1.76 per share on its own.

Add on Cash of $60m at this stage (after tax on Gloucester paid).

Add on $6m for sale of China.

Add on $7m for sale of NSW.

So Cash of $73m = $0.365 per share.

Mungi/Harcourt/QLD... this is an interesting one. If we assume only $1/GJ of 3P, then it is worth $231m based on current reserves. That IGNORES lilyvale reserves, that have not been proven under the new code. Note that I think it is ok to use a figuer of around $1/GJ as the reality is, reserve exploration is something that MPO has really not targetted of late, rather it has been proving up production. Also I would think that Lilyvale/Oakpark will be upgraded together with Mungi/Harcourt in the reserves upgrade due in the next few weeks.... the previous reserves for Lilyvale/Oakpark are 123PJ 2P and 279PJ 3P... so that will add some serious reserves to the equation. Also it must be remembered that effectively these tenements are pretty advanced given the production currently being extracted. Finally, the location is very very beneficial being so close to a pipeline.

Finally we have South Africa... well, it is treated as the poor cousin by the average joe investor, so we will say it is worth $20m in total, along the lines of NSW/China, but with a bit of a bonus seeing as it is flowing gas already at sustained rates.

Add it all together:

Canada: $350m
Cash: $73m
QLD: $231m (could be lots of upside there!).
South Africa: $20m

Total: $674m = roughly $3.37 assuming 200m shares on issue.

We are currently trading at $1.52... which is a 55% discount to that price.

I think a reasonable discount may be around 20-40%... which would give a price range of $2.02 to $2.70.

Should be pretty exciting for the next few months... Canadian Oil drilling kicking off, Canadian Gas drilling kicking off, a reserve upgrade imminent within a month, Mungi 21 due to be finished soon, further news on the planned power stations are all definates.

Add in speculatives like farm-outs for Canadian Gas (lets face it, we have a lot of acreage there, and 4 or 5 targets), Anglo sale of QLD assets one day (don't hold breath!), corporate action in the CSG sector, or neighbours results in Canada to ignite the Utica players again.

Am a very happy holder at the moment.

Cheers

Pukin

Not much change from Friday's comments but we only have one resistance point being noted at $1.60, which is not that far away.

With the help of the amount traded in the closing auction we were able to have a slightly larger volume from that traded on Friday.

We seemed to have a reasonable degree of buying strength today that was offset from a couple of consistent profit takers. If the buying strength remains, those sellers will quickly disappear.

From Getagraph

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Monday 23 Nov. 2009]:
No changes to price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 7.64% over the past 2 weeks.

3 MONTH TREND
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 24.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.60 and AUD 2.10 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 1.45 Resistance 1: AUD 1.60
Support 2: AUD 1.30 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 1.20 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

Today MPO released an announcement about its Canadian projects and their prospects. There was also a mention of a 'Spring' ? northern hemisphere? listing on the TSX. Question to anyone with experience of such listing. I'm assuming it is to raise capital? or is it just to get exposure to a wider market. How is the existing capital of ASX MPO holders likely to fare as a result of this listing.
To 'financial chat' I've enjoyed your recent posts and may the high SP prognostications bear fruit quickly

it pulled back a touch from the 1.65 but I am not concerned.

According to Getagraph the previous resistance of 1.56 is now the support level.

The reference to 1.69 is still a few cents off but could easily surpass it on a good day, and that would indeed be a good indicator.

I note that in the after hours adjust that there is less than 470k on offer for sale and that more than half of that is at 1.70 or below. All the charts that I am looking at look very bullish.

I also suspect that we will see either some press coverage or analyst updates/commentary on the impact of today's announcement.

From Getagraph
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Tuesday 24 Nov. 2009]:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by 4.52% yesterday from AUD 1.55 to AUD 1.62 In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 11.72% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,41 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,32 million shares for approx. AUD 2,14 million.

3 MONTH TREND
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 1.69 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 24.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.61 and AUD 2.10 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistances
Support 1: AUD 1.56 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 1.45 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 1.30 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

"It certainly will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike" and I am looking forward to seeing it happen.

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Wednesday 25 Nov. 2009]:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by 1.85% yesterday from AUD 1.62 to AUD 1.65 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 11.49% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,30 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,62 million shares for approx. AUD 2,68 million.

3 MONTH TREND
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 1.70 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 24.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.61 and AUD 2.11 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistances
Support 1: AUD 1.56 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 1.45 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 1.30 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

MPO.AX has closed below upper band by 14.5%. Bollinger Bands are 44.8% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to MPO.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 8 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

This is not really what we want to hear at this stage of development, so hopefully any bidder is deterred by the Board.

I am hoping that the rumour of a bid for the Canadian assets is in fact a JV(farmout), that will prove the value of the assets ahead of the spinoff.


http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=27668479&l=0&r=0&s=QEC&t=LIST

MOLOPO to spin off Quebec's asset and JV

Alternative energy

Coalbed methane group Molopo Australiais meanwhile the subject of more rumours about its shale gas projectsin Canada. There's been talk mentioned in this column before aboutMolopo spinning off its Canadian interests into a Toronto-listedvehicle but now it’s rumoured that Molopo is in talks with a bidder. Anumber of companies are sniffing around the sector including Gazprom, the same Russian oil and gas giant that's interested in Mongolian coal. Last week Bloombergreported that Gazprom may be interested in acquiring a North Americanshale-gas company to gain expertise for its own shale-gas prospects inits own country. Norway's StatoilHydro made a similar move in May through the purchase of a stake in Chesapeake Energy Corporation, which has shale-gas projects in the northern Appalachian Basin.

The small retrace that we saw today was very positive in my view. It gave some an opportunity to buy before the stock resumes its climb.

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Thursday 26 Nov. 2009]:

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by -0.61% yesterday from AUD 1.62 to AUD 1.65 . In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 5.81% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -867 241 shares and in total there was bought and sold 755 741 shares for approx. AUD 1,25 million.


3 MONTH TREND

MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 1.70 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 24.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.61 and AUD 2.11 at the end of this period.



Support/Resistances

Support 1: AUD 1.56 Resistance 1: AUD N/A

Support 2: AUD 1.45 Resistance 2: AUD N/A

Support 3: AUD 1.30 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED [Monday 30 Nov. 2009]:
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED is up by 1.94% yesterday from AUD 1.55 to AUD 1.58 In the last 10 days the price of MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 3.27% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day by -800 904 shares and in total there was bought and sold 658 898 shares for approx. AUD 1,04 million. You should note that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

3 MONTH TREND
MOLOPO AUSTRALIA LIMITED lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 25.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.66 and AUD 2.16 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistances
Support 1: AUD 1.56 Resistance 1: AUD 1.60
Support 2: AUD 1.45 Resistance 2: AUD 1.62
Support 3: AUD 1.30 Resistance 3: AUD 1.65

I wonder what MPO is currently thinking now that WCL has entered into a conditional agreement to buy up Anglo and potentially Mitsui's share in the Dawson CSG fields and a half share in PL94 (the other half owned by MPO).

I worked around Moura a few months ago and the fields are only approx 5 min drive from the gas mainline heading to Gladstone...

(I disclose that I currently hold MPO shares)

A little quote from MPO's recent Canadian presentation perhaps shows how MPO views any assett.
" willing to exit major projects when it represents fair value to share holders" The Gloucester CSG project was used as an example.

joelc - did you work on the drilling rigs?

I had a trip up there as part of a field trip and was very impressed.

I think that the pre-emptive rights will come into play here as I am sure that "fair" value for MPO is significantly higher than what WCL have indicated that they are agreeing to pay. By significant I mean multiples.

Added this one to my watchlist.
Be nice to reach some of those price targets in posts earlier in this thread. See how it reacts once we get a further spate of positive announcements generally around the coal seal methane sector.

new presentation on website
http://www.molopo.com.au/presentation_feb_2010.pdf


Also
I read on Baillieu's Daily report that Mitchell and Bishop are presenting in Syd. tomorrow.

My understanding is that the presentation is to institutions.

Any buying support coming from that meeting could be the trigger to take the share price to the next level.