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MP1 - Megaport Limited

Got alert this morning as saw it open up a whopping $5.75 (after yesterday's closing price $3.98) cudos & well done to anyone here holding... don't particularly like big 'open gap's up' as eventually should fill/close imo I'll await any pullback to perhaps $4.50-4.70ish to consider an entry dyor
 
The door may be slammed shut ...

After the earlier jump 28 April , renewed buying seems to be pushing it higher.. now $6.71.

View attachment 157356
Seems so DF

Still on my watchlist awaiting a "market crash" lol as surely then it may likely fill/close previous 'open gap up'

P.S. Dislike 'open gaps up' as usually more often than not eventually fill/close at some stage imo
 
Amateurs open markets , professionals close them.
The IT sector was best on ground today (+3.76%) but Megaport ahead of the pack, up more than 5%.

It really does look like that big high volume breakaway gap at the end of May is not going to close. Not in modern times anyway. They do say that about breakaway gaps - most of them anyway. Daily chart looks good but at overbought level. Positive cross of daily moving averages, momentum trending up - what's not to like? Maybe get to $8-9 before a normal retrace? Just a guess.

Not Held
Too richly optimistic for me

Daily
 
And it was doing so well .... to $8 yesterday am. , but based on what? Aus exposure to AI ?

 
there ya go, that'll do it
MP1 announces that, as a result of
continued improvement in operating metrics and financial performance, the Company is upgrading its FY23 Normalised EBITDA to be in the range of $19M to $21M (compared to previous guidance of $16M to $18M). Reported EBITDA Guidance is now expected to be in the range of $24M to $26M.

The Company also confirms that it was net cash positive in Q4FY23 inclusive of redundancy payments of approximately $2.6M.

While the Company is still finalising its FY24 budget with the new CEO to appropriately capture network expansion, product and revenue generating headcount, the Company expects its FY24 EBITDA guidance to be higher than the previous guidance of $41M to $46M.

Additionally, excluding any future strategic initiatives the Company may decide to undertake, Megaport confirms it expects to be net cash positive for FY24 after taking into account the planned incremental growth in sales headcount and planned capital expenditure
.



H.
 
Wow, ex-per-losive move.

I was going to say 3 preceding consecutive months of high positive volume should have been a good cue but I'm impervious to buy signals at these valuation ratios anyway.

Not Held

MONTHLY not showing today's 27% move
 
New CEO mutterings / looking out
  • Company still finalising FY24 budget (only 2 months into the role)
  • Working to appropriately capture additional costs in relation to network expansion, product and revenue generating headcount - growth investment
  • FY24 Normalised EBITDA expected to be above previous guidance of $41-46M
  • Expected to be Net Cash Flow Positive for FY24, excluding any future strategic initiatives
  • Company to issue updated FY24 guidance no later than 22nd August


Pushing to $10...
 
Wow, nice. I came perilously close to making a bad call on this a few days ago. I thought the awkward rising flag shape was more likely to break down into a retracement. Maybe down to $8, phew. This is a very strong rally.

 
Today's AFR reports ( not too favourably , either ) on MP1 , that with a net cash position just half the $ 68 Million of a year ago , the company could be ready for a new equity raising.
Full year's company report due next month .
 
And two closes at highs for the day at $11.01 during this week.
punched higher, .... to $12.72 on initial/ early excitement; now around $12.

OUTLOOK

As a result of continued improvement in the Company’s operating and financial performance, the Company expects FY24 EBITDA to be in the range of $51M to $57M. This reflects an increase of 152% to 182% compared to FY23
- Normalised EBITDA of $20.2M and an increase of approximately 24% to FY24 guidance provided on 28 April 2023.
- FY24 Revenue is expected to be in the range of $190M to $195M, an increase of 24% to 27% on FY23 Revenue of $153.1M.
- Megaport also confirms it expects to be Net Cash Flow positive for the full year FY24
.
 
then recently, slam. down to to sub 10's. ...holding mid 9's..

AGM today ...

the little company that could. Aw, shucks.

2023 Annual General Meeting
Chairman’s Address


(don't mention the previous team)
 
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FibreconX has signed a deal with Megaport to deliver software services on its fibre networks. It is building infrastructure that connects the biggest data centres in Sydney and Melbourne as it tries to compete with Telstra, TPG Telecom and the Vocus Group.

FibreconX chief executive Mark Rafferty says the group hopes to snare 200 to 300 wholesale fibre customers from the country’s biggest telecommunications groups as it offers cut-price services in so-called “dark fibre”, which is essentially plain fibre, selling to wholesalers, which add equipment that allows them to provide communications services at various speeds.

To date, Megaport’s customers have needed to have their own connection to a data centre or use third-party operators to use services. The arrangement with FibreconX will allow Megaport to offer FibreconX services to its customers to connect directly to data centres.

“They can control the experience from the data centre straight to the end customer the same as if the customer was within the data centre,” Mr Rafferty said. “At the moment, if you want to buy Megaport services, you’ve got to connect to the data centre somehow or you’ve got to be in the data centre.”

Tattarang is FibreconX’s biggest shareholder, but owns less than 50 per cent. Other stakes are held by telecommunications and technology investors.
.
so ... the old Superloop / Megaport relationship just didn't have the balance sheet strength?
 
sold out of MP1 on 15 Dec , the rest of my holding, some 8000 gone at $10.10.
.
and not before time (lucky)

State Street in there, with their shorting games
 
around $9.25 ... my January 2024 tip.

No real reason, apart from shorters have being playing; maybe they'll have next month off.

no longer hold
 
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